Leafs First round draft picks since Nylander (2014), Marner (2015), Matthews (2016)

[HamiltonNHL]

The theory is that you are supposed to draft scoring forwards in the first round because they are easier to develop and trade.

That's a bad bad plan. Especially if you don't trade them.

It's too late to draft D now maybe. But you fill your coffers with D and G in the first few drafts.

Useful RD and good goalies are way bigger trade targets than wingers.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

That's a bad bad plan. Especially if you don't trade them.

It's too late to draft D now maybe. But you fill your coffers with D and G in the first few drafts.

Useful RD and good goalies are way bigger trade targets than wingers.

I'm not the one that comes up with these ideas.

I don't even agree with a lot of them. But I do like to get an underdtsnding of where these guys are coming from. Since defensemen and goalies are harder to develop the theory suggests drafting for forwards and trading them to a team that has a surplus of defensemen and netminders.

Kinda like what the Leafs and Ducks do every five yesrs or so.

Except the Leafs didn't trade one of their forwards for a defenseman and goalie this time around like they were supposed to. They just went with the same thing every year. Then kept drafting even more of the same.

They've made so little inroad on goaltending that nine years after drafting Matthews they are STILL scambling to find a starter.

Same can be said about 1RHD. That's because they didn't make drafting OR trading for those positions a priority. So they continue along in mediocrity.

I don't know why they bother reading those studies if they're just gonna ignore them anyway.

 

[Jojalu]

Just reading an article on Solberg.

Big D-man with a big shot and hits everything that moves.

Scored against Canada in the World's.

Seems like a good fit for the Leafa

 

[hamzarocks]

4x4.5 for a 33 year old? Kind of glad they didn't give it to him

A player significantly better than our 11M 2C?

It would have been a no brainer

 

[tmlms13]

A player significantly better than our 11M 2C?

It would have been a no brainer

Well if you find a way to change Tavares cap hit let me know.

I would have thought people know the difference between a contract signed this year vs 7 years ago

 

[hamzarocks]

Well if you find a way to change Tavares cap hit let me know.

I would have thought people know the difference between a contract signed this year vs 7 years ago

The issue is you said 4.5M x 4 was a bad deal based on age

We paid JT 11M x 2 for the first two years of RoR 4.5x4 deal while being the same age as RoR (2009 draft class(

Claude Giroux, Anze Kopitar, Malkin etc all older and got more than 4.5M though at lower term besides Malkin who still got 4 years

We will see what Tavares gets after this but if hes a 50-60 pt player making over 4.5M it will be hard to argue RoR deal was a bad one

4.5M for a 2C for 2 years and then a 3C for last 2 years is a great deal

 

[HamiltonNHL]

4.5M for a 2C for 2 years and then a 3C for last 2 years is a great deal

He’s too slow. We need to move on. 3.5 … we can talk. Robidas island after 2 years needs to be written in the contract

 

[conFABulator]

Traded away
Foligno
Marleau
Muzzin
McCabe
Trade down (Sandin)
Mrazek (traded down 13 spots)
ROR

Received
Sandin
Trade down (Sandin)
Kapanen

This is interesting, thanks for doing it. I am going to comment on the substance of this and realize I may get pulled into a Dubas/not Dubas debate...but here we go.

Contending teams trade first rounders, we seem to have traded seven and got 3 back, plus a high second on a trade down (Mrazek). That's a net of more first round picks than I thought we had over this timeframe.

I also think the circumstances around some of these trades is worth considering.

He traded Marleau and had to attach a first. He felt he needed the space to keep a couple of young guys in Kapanen and Johnsson.

He then dealt Kapanen to regain a first rounder the draft where we lost the Marleau pick. He got a pick a couple of spots lower. That pick was Amirov and this whole thread looks a bit different if he were in our top nine right now.

He traded what would be and was going to be a late first for Foligno. That didn't work out, largely due to injury. He was a sought after player and signed with term and money that off season with Boston. However, I remember at the time of this trade reading that first round picks that year had less value because Covid wiped out most of junior hockey. There was less ability to scout and rank players. We ended up taking Knies with our first pick (57 overall) that year. That was a good save, though of course we could have had a first AND Knies.

Muzzin and McCabe were not rentals and were each contributors to our D for years. McCabe came with three years of retention too. These were hockey trades, not TDL rentals. Good teams for this. Muzzin got cut short due to injury.

He traded a 25th for a 29th (Sandin) and 76th (SDA). You can say that Sandin is not your type of D or whatever, but no one of significance or as good as Sandin was taken between the pick we traded and the one we got. He got a free th is round pick and gambled on a lottery ticket in SDA. This was a GOOD trading of a first round pick.

The Mrazek cap dump was similar. Yes it was his mistake to sign him in the first place (injuries played a role again) but the recovery cost was to trade down 13 spots and get Minten, apparently the guy they wanted all along. There is no one in those 13 spots that has us full of regret yet.

The last was on ROR. That's a rental that didn't work out because we didn't win. I really do believe they felt they could re-sign him and then it goes into the Muzzin and McCabe category if he does.

..but then he turns RFA and tough to re-sign Sandin into a pick he turns into Easton Cowen. Not a bad recovery at all.

So, what's the net of these five years?

He gave up a pick for Foligno in a very questionable draft and took Knies later. Not bad.

He dumped Marleau to retain two kids and then dealt one of those kids to get a similar pick back in the same draft along with Evan Rodrigues and Filip Hallinder, later turned into McCann (briefly). Not bad.

He acquired two mainstays on D and one with three years retained at 50%. Not bad.

He traded down twice (once to dump a bad deal) and both times for the guy they would have selected with the higher pick (Sandin and Minten). Later turning Sandin into Gustafsson and Cowan. Not bad.

He gambled on a first for hometown kid ROR. It didn't work out out, the trade would look quite different if we still had ROR

That's not all so bad, now is it?

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

Is there a reason Rielly is left off the 2012 draft list?

I was thinking that too and then thought "hey maybe I should read the thread title again"

Since 2014.

I'm not saying this is a good thread btw, just saying there is a timeline presented.

 

[notbias]

This is interesting, thanks for doing it. I am going to comment on the substance of this and realize I may get pulled into a Dubas/not Dubas debate...but here we go.

Contending teams trade first rounders, we seem to have traded seven and got 3 back, plus a high second on a trade down (Mrazek). That's a net of more first round picks than I thought we had over this timeframe.

I also think the circumstances around some of these trades is worth considering.

He traded Marleau and had to attach a first. He felt he needed the space to keep a couple of young guys in Kapanen and Johnsson.

He then dealt Kapanen to regain a first rounder the draft where we lost the Marleau pick. He got a pick a couple of spots lower. That pick was Amirov and this whole thread looks a bit different if he were in our top nine right now.

He traded what would be and was going to be a late first for Foligno. That didn't work out, largely due to injury. He was a sought after player and signed with term and money that off season with Boston. However, I remember at the time of this trade reading that first round picks that year had less value because Covid wiped out most of junior hockey. There was less ability to scout and rank players. We ended up taking Knies with our first pick (57 overall) that year. That was a good save, though of course we could have had a first AND Knies.

Muzzin and McCabe were not rentals and were each contributors to our D for years. McCabe came with three years of retention too. These were hockey trades, not TDL rentals. Good teams for this. Muzzin got cut short due to injury.

He traded a 25th for a 29th (Sandin) and 76th (SDA). You can say that Sandin is not your type of D or whatever, but no one of significance or as good as Sandin was taken between the pick we traded and the one we got. He got a free th is round pick and gambled on a lottery ticket in SDA. This was a GOOD trading of a first round pick.

The Mrazek cap dump was similar. Yes it was his mistake to sign him in the first place (injuries played a role again) but the recovery cost was to trade down 13 spots and get Minten, apparently the guy they wanted all along. There is no one in those 13 spots that has us full of regret yet.

The last was on ROR. That's a rental that didn't work out because we didn't win. I really do believe they felt they could re-sign him and then it goes into the Muzzin and McCabe category if he does.

..but then he turns RFA and tough to re-sign Sandin into a pick he turns into Easton Cowen. Not a bad recovery at all.

So, what's the net of these five years?

He gave up a pick for Foligno in a very questionable draft and took Knies later. Not bad.

He dumped Marleau to retain two kids and then dealt one of those kids to get a similar pick back in the same draft along with Evan Rodrigues and Filip Hallinder, later turned into McCann (briefly). Not bad.

He acquired two mainstays on D and one with three years retained at 50%. Not bad.

He traded down twice (once to dump a bad deal) and both times for the guy they would have selected with the higher pick (Sandin and Minten). Later turning Sandin into Gustafsson and Cowan. Not bad.

He gambled on a first for hometown kid ROR. It didn't work out out, the trade would look quite different if we still had ROR

That's not all so bad, now is it?

I think it is optimistic thinking on ROR, but other than that, I mostly agree.

With hindsight, I'd make none of those trades, I'd rather the picks, but I also don't want a GM to sit on their hands and not try to improve the team.

I think Foligno was an overpay, but people are pretending that he was washed up, he was the same type of player everyone wants right now, the type that has "snot".

I think the only trades that you can look at and dislike are the pure rentals of Foligno/ROR, I am not sure if paying top dollar for rentals is ideal, but the rest, I see no issue with them.