Friedman: Leafs and Knies talking extension

[FriendlyGhost92]

Some players choose to take the money. Why is it only Toronto players not allowed to do that?

The victim complex it takes for you to consistently believe any opinion counter to yours must be because the poster is Anti-Toronto.

Just to be clear here, Knies would be stupid to take an 8 year deal at $4M - $5M on any team in the league.

But keep playing that, "Everybody hates Toronto. Poor me" card.

 

[HockeyVirus]

The victim complex it takes for you to consistently believe any opinion counter to yours must be because the poster is Anti-Toronto.

Just to be clear here, Knies would be stupid to take an 8 year deal at $4M - $5M on any team in the league.

But keep playing that, "Everybody hates Toronto. Poor me" card.

And yet there are examples all over the league of players taking deals that end up being steals for years and years. So why can't the Leafs do that by overpaying NOW. Knies could never hit his potential or get badly injured and settle for a 1-2 year 1-2M deal.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Some players choose to take the money. Why is it only Toronto players not allowed to do that?

There plenty of examples where Toronto players take the money.
This seems like a bridge deal to me,

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

And yet there are examples all over the league of players taking deals that end up being steals for years and years. So why can't the Leafs do that by overpaying NOW. Knies could never hit his potential or get badly injured and settle for a 1-2 year 1-2M deal.

Can't wait to hear of all the recent examples of this.

 

[SensontheRush]

6 years at $4.5m.

$3m, $3m, $4.5m, $4.5m, $6m, $6m

 

[HockeyVirus]

Can't wait to hear of all the recent examples of this.

Brock Faber, Slafkovsky, Guenther, Guhle, Sanderson all examples of guys taking the money when in a few seasons they could easily be worth 3-4M a year more and all signed in the last 18 months

 

[hamzarocks]

Power forwards always take time to get going. He will probably break out around 24/25. If we can lock him up at 4.5 we are overpaying for 1/2 years unless he takes a big step this year and most likely having insane value the rest.

And if Matthews leaves and we rebuild in 5 years, well Knies would be worth quite a bit. Prime aged power forward with term.



Why wouldn't a guy with 1 NHL season sign a 32M deal? What do you think is fair for him?

My reasoning is pretty similar to yours

The risk of an 8 year deal is that Matthews leaves/isnt a capable best player to lead a team to a cup(which despite his repeated playoff failures so far, he still is good enough to win with, he needs to find a way to put it together come spring)

6 year deal is best case, as if Knies is a 55-65 pt PWF we can sell him off for a lot with 2 years left is Matthews walks to kickstart the rebuild. Teams may not want him at 8 year term (4 years left) as its a lot of term and risk of his next deal being one where PWFs fall of in year 2 or 3 of

It also works if Matthews extends, nd the team has won or is close to winning by then as 2 super cheap years at 4.5M before we can extend him to a bigger deal at only 28 years of age vs 30 (2 years could be huge if he falls of at 32/33 and we give him 7-8 years his next deal)

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Brock Faber, Slafkovsky, Guenther, Guhle, Sanderson all examples of guys taking the money when in a few seasons they could easily be worth 3-4M a year more and all signed in the last 18 months

I get what you are saying and they are good examples but I think Knies is a tier below those guys , which is why it gets a little dicey , those guys are at least getting top 6/top 4 money going forward, not sure knies wants to lock himself up to middle six money (5th-6th best forward on a team) especially with where the cap is going. Then again who knows he might love Toronto and want to be there long term at a reasonable deal

 

[Gizmo Tkachuk]

Brock Faber, Slafkovsky, Guenther, Guhle, Sanderson all examples of guys taking the money when in a few seasons they could easily be worth 3-4M a year more and all signed in the last 18 months

Didn’t most of those guys sign for a minimum 8x7.5?

You said previously that Knies isn’t worth that yet. Why would he handicap himself to $3mil less annually by signing now?

 

[seanlinden]

To me, the right "term" is 4 years. Give him the security of a $10m+ payday, locks him up through Matthews contract + a year, and keeps him as RFA status at the end (although we would of course be able to ride an arbitrartion award to UFA if things got nasty). Keeps the AAV down, and puts him in a position where he's negotiating his next deal at 26 years old.

That, or pay for a bit of extra term and do a 6 or 7 year deal that takes him to 28-29 years old -- still with an opportunity to earn another big payday.

 

[MCR74]

8x8

This is Toronto, not Ottawa.

 

[HockeyVirus]

I get what you are saying and they are good examples but I think Knies is a tier below those guys , which is why it gets a little dicey , those guys are at least getting top 6/top 4 money going forward, not sure knies wants to lock himself up to middle six money (5th-6th best forward on a team) especially with where the cap is going. Then again who knows he might love Toronto and want to be there long term at a reasonable deal

Of course I am not saying Knies is with those players. Just that those players all should have taken bridges because they would be worth 10+M in a few years with the cap rising.

Same situation with Knies. He can bridge and get 7M+ in a few years when 2nd line wingers are making that. Or he can take 4.5-5 now and lock in some wealth.

 

[Jared Dunn]

Why wouldn't a guy with 1 NHL season sign a 32M deal?

Because he has a professional agent?

 

[HockeyVirus]

Because he has a professional agent?

No one thinks Knies is a double digit player in his prime, so on a 5M AAV how much is he potentially shortchanging himself? 3M? And likely he was overpaid his first year or two at 5M to balance that out.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Brock Faber, Slafkovsky, Guenther, Guhle, Sanderson all examples of guys taking the money when in a few seasons they could easily be worth 3-4M a year more and all signed in the last 18 months

Thanks for naming players getting in the ballpark of 8 x $8M to back up your 8 x $4M suggestion.

Proved my point.

 

[DingDongCharlie]

Zero reason for Knies to sign for 8 years if sub 5m. 5 years RFA left, really limits his ability to leverage a better amount. Better to 2-3 years bridge and then sign a long term extension.

I'd add Toronto is still attempting to contend. Teams in this position usually don't bridge their players. They can't really afford to overpay now to save later.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

This is Toronto, not Ottawa.

True. In Ottawa they sign their core players to 8 x $8M. In Toronto they sign them to 6 x $11M contracts.

Both relatively unsuccessful so far, though.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Again, what do you think he is worth then? Easy to say all of this, tell me how much more than 4-5M he is worth on an 8 year deal if he signs it sometime in the next few weeks.

Money's not the issue, it's the term. If it's "only" for around $4-4.5 million, he'd probably want a shorter deal that brings him to free agency rather than a full 8 years at that salary.

 

[WarriorofTime]

These young guys get too impatient, they are often better off just playing out the year. "Career Ending Injuries" are very rare and they usually leave money on the table by not just waiting until the end of the year to sign. I assume since Dubas isn't there anymore, it won't be the "Blank Cheque" Toronto special for this non-Arb eligible RFA.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

8 years x $6.5M
6 years x $5.5M
4 years x $4.75M
2 years x $4.25M

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDo]

Some players choose to take the money. Why is it only Toronto players not allowed to do that?

Because other Toronto players already took the money. No money left.

 

[DackellDuck]

This is Toronto, not Ottawa.

True. It'd be 5x9.25 in Toronto.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Because other Toronto players already took the money. No money left.

*yawn* that cap structure is over. 22M off the books after this year.

 

[Bust]

Report: Maple Leafs, Matthew Knies have had conversations about extension

Matthew Knies and the Toronto Maple Leafs have held conversations abou...

theleafsnation.com

Would be nice to finally be smart and lock up someone before they completely break out. If they can get Knies signed 8 years at 4-5M right now they should do it.

Probably would be a tough sell @ 8 years. I could potentially see a 5.25 x 4

Or

3m x 2

Or

4m x 3

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Threads going just about how I expected. Carry on.