LD Sam Dickinson - London Knights, OHL (2024, 11th, SJ)

bert

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Dickinson will have a bigger impact on the ice then Demidov will specially come playoff time maybe they take Levshunov but im willing to bet they dont take the russian winger
Demidov is going to drop out of the top 4 and everyone on HF boards who watch youtube highlites are going to lose their minds. I guarantee you he does not go 2nd. Levshunov is. He could go to Anaheim but I dont think they pass on Silayev they have everything in that prospect pool except the massive shut down two way D man.

Columbus going to risk taking him? I dunno I think they go Lindstrom they really cant miss here and Demidov comes with risk. Undersized Russian winger who's game while incredibly skilled will not translate to the NHL unless he makes some major changes. The hope plays he makes will not work in this league.

I could see them taking a D man.

I think Montreal ends up with Demidov they have the D core they need a creative star up front.

Dickinson is a very very safe pick I think he ends up in Ottawa. Not my first choice as a sens fan but I think Staios trusts his OHL contacts and gets the guy who is going to be a guaranteed number 3.
 

Hockeyville USA

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Demidov is going to drop out of the top 4 and everyone on HF boards who watch youtube highlites are going to lose their minds. I guarantee you he does not go 2nd. Levshunov is. He could go to Anaheim but I dont think they pass on Silayev they have everything in that prospect pool except the massive shut down two way D man.

Columbus going to risk taking him? I dunno I think they go Lindstrom they really cant miss here and Demidov comes with risk. Undersized Russian winger who's game while incredibly skilled will not translate to the NHL unless he makes some major changes. The hope plays he makes will not work in this league.

I could see them taking a D man.

I think Montreal ends up with Demidov they have the D core they need a creative star up front.

Dickinson is a very very safe pick I think he ends up in Ottawa. Not my first choice as a sens fan but I think Staios trusts his OHL contacts and gets the guy who is going to be a guaranteed number 3.
How high could Dickinson go? Would Columbus be interested in him and willing to take him at 4, or are they dead set on going with a forward?
 

Artorius Horus T

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I personally not sold on him yet, 1 great regular season in the OHL, in a season that wasn't one of the great ones, OHL was the worst of the trio.
Yes i am aware that team from the OHL won this years MEMCUP, but usually it is won by the host team so, that is nothing burger.
- i think 2 best teams came from Q and the best failed to win the Q, so... they would/should/could have won..

I'm gonna wait what happens next season, can he repeat 23-24 season, or improve even.
but yeah, i think he goes 7-10
 

Sergei Shirokov

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I personally not sold on him yet, 1 great regular season in the OHL, in a season that wasn't one of the great ones, OHL was the worst of the trio.
Yes i am aware that team from the OHL won this years MEMCUP, but usually it is won by the host team so, that is nothing burger.
- i think 2 best teams came from Q and the best failed to win the Q, so... they would/should/could have won..

I'm gonna wait what happens next season, can he repeat 23-24 season, or improve even.
but yeah, i think he goes 7-10

He was relied upon quite a bit in London last year fwiw. I remember watching games to see Bonk & he was playing as much 5 on 5 as Bonk in some of the games.
 

ccman68

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easily the best D in the draft. people go crazy over offensive skills but you don’t really need any of that shit as a defenseman. hedman has worse offensive skills than sergachev. klingberg was more offensively skilled than heiskanen. none of it f***ing matters when you can skate and play defense.
 

bert

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I personally not sold on him yet, 1 great regular season in the OHL, in a season that wasn't one of the great ones, OHL was the worst of the trio.
Yes i am aware that team from the OHL won this years MEMCUP, but usually it is won by the host team so, that is nothing burger.
- i think 2 best teams came from Q and the best failed to win the Q, so... they would/should/could have won..

I'm gonna wait what happens next season, can he repeat 23-24 season, or improve even.
but yeah, i think he goes 7-10
The Q is the worst league of the three and was horrible last year and Drumondville finished last. I can't tell if this is serious or not.
 

Kingpin794

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I personally not sold on him yet, 1 great regular season in the OHL, in a season that wasn't one of the great ones, OHL was the worst of the trio.
Yes i am aware that team from the OHL won this years MEMCUP, but usually it is won by the host team so, that is nothing burger.
- i think 2 best teams came from Q and the best failed to win the Q, so... they would/should/could have won..

I'm gonna wait what happens next season, can he repeat 23-24 season, or improve even.
but yeah, i think he goes 7-10
I think most people who watched the memorial cup this year would say that the clear best two teams were London and Saginaw. Also in the modern format, the host team has won 12/40. That's hardly "usually" winning. Like I know the Drakkar had the league's best record but they had like 2 NHL prospects on that team. London and Saginaw had 9/10 each. I mean even 4 and 5 seeds in the OHL had the same talent level as top Q teams. Point being, you can't knock Dickinson's season for the quality of the league he played in.
 

Kingpin794

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easily the best D in the draft. people go crazy over offensive skills but you don’t really need any of that shit as a defenseman. hedman has worse offensive skills than sergachev. klingberg was more offensively skilled than heiskanen. none of it f***ing matters when you can skate and play defense.
What??? Who's saying Hedman has worse offensive skills than Sergachev? Hedman is anywhere from 55-80 pts consistently. Sergachev is usually around 30ish pts. Had one outlier season where he put up 60+. Hedman is clearly better offensively. Honestly same for Heiskanen. It is a part of why they're so good. Being able to move the puck and/or score more than your opponent is a form of defense.
 
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majormajor

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@Garbageyuk I should reply to your post here in the Dickinson thread.

The reason why I think he has lower upside is because he doesn't read the game at a high level. I think he'll be good in the NHL but not #1D and maybe not top pair at all.

If you need someone to skate into an open lane or shoot in an open shooting lane, Dickinson is terrific. He can confidently take a man defensively as well. He has polished one on one technique. It's when things get more complicated that his play reads aren't very good. NHL tactics will put him in a lot of situations that are not to his strengths.

Physical gifts are often somewhat overrated when it comes to D-men, at least at the top. The best D are not necessarily the most skilled or the fastest or strongest. It's mostly decision making that separates the best from the rest.
 

WeThreeKings

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In the latest Athletic Podcast - teams are still unsure about his hockey sense. So I don't think the noise of him going top 5 is a reality, you are more likely to see him go off the board in the Sens range.
 

tunnelvision

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If you need someone to skate into an open lane or shoot in an open shooting lane, Dickinson is terrific. He can confidently take a man defensively as well. He has polished one on one technique. It's when things get more complicated that his play reads aren't very good. NHL tactics will put him in a lot of situations that are not to his strengths.
In my limited viewings I haven't got the impression that his overall hockey IQ or reads in the game are very concerning, it is just the decision-making with the puck that really sometimes bothers me. Defensive reads are very good imo. His off-puck game offensively is also impressive, it seems he knows when to jump on the play to support offense.

I think improving his scanning habits with the puck and adding subtlety to his passes could really help in his development to become something more than a defense-first 2nd/3rd pair defender at the next level. I think right now he tends to put too much mustard on his outlet passes and clearing attempts out of the zone, and in all zones with the puck he usually fully commits for the first play option he sees in front of him, he seems to lack vision and patience that some players with great offensive instincts have.

I'll try to demonstrate my points by taking samples from the 3rd period of Mem cup final.


1:48:08 -- I guess his idea there is to fire puck to an area in the offensive zone where the high forward Halttunen would get first and beat the icing call but it isn't even close to working out the way he hoped. There obviously would have been better play options.

1:58:00 -- his rush eventually leads to a goal for London but he makes kind of a needless blind pass to net front, there is no one there, he could've circled around the net and do less riskier pass to Cowan from the same side or found someone in the middle.

2:06:10 -- the weak side defenseman is open for a d2d pass but Dickinson decides to saucer it to forward at defensive blueline that could have been intercepted by #48 in white. That's a high-risk low-reward play imo.

2:07:15 -- not a very gentle nor accurate outlet pass lol.

2:10:42 -- that would have been the time to go for a safe cross-ice pass to Halttunen with a little deception, but no, instead it's up the boards to an already covered McCue who turns it over.

2:12:40 -- strange and rushed decision, I have no idea what he's trying to accomplish there.

2:12:53 -- another rough moment in the same shift, it's a 4-on-2 situation for London in d zone and he almost manages to turn it over.

2:16:40 -- not an ideal time to make that unforced error given the context.
 

Jason MacIsaac

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Decision making with the puck can improve, especially once they make the NHL and players are routinely in the right spot to receive passes. He can make a career as a first pair defenceman by making the safe play. The defenceman I have issues with are the ones who refused to make the safe play and just can’t read the ice well enough to do so.
 
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Bye Bye Blueston

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He suffers from being thought to be top guy all year so everyone picks him apart. Even if all the criticism of his hockey sense is fair, that feels like why you expect him to be more like Hannifin or even Parayko than Heiskanen. Guys with his size, skating, and skill can be effective top pairing players even if they have limits on hockey sense. He doesn’t need to think game at highest level to be really good player, but his struggles to do so may well keep him from greatness.

But we tend to as fans I think focus too much on upside and not enough on expected value. Realistically, how many of the D in this class will be true 1d? I’d be shocked if it’s more than a couple. Dickinson probably won’t be the BEST defenseman in this draft, but he is I think most likely of them to be a very good defenseman.
 
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Rabid Ranger

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easily the best D in the draft. people go crazy over offensive skills but you don’t really need any of that shit as a defenseman. hedman has worse offensive skills than sergachev. klingberg was more offensively skilled than heiskanen. none of it f***ing matters when you can skate and play defense.
People go "crazy" over offensive skills with d-men because of how the game is played today. A d-man that can skate, pass, shoot, and handle the puck with authority and creativity are highly prized. Many teams build their offenses from the "D" out.
 
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majormajor

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He suffers from being thought to be top guy all year so everyone picks him apart. Even if all the criticism of his hockey sense is fair, that feels like why you expect him to be more like Hannifin or even Parayko than Heiskanen. Guys with his size, skating, and skill can be effective top pairing players even if they have limits on hockey sense. He doesn’t need to think game at highest level to be really good player, but his struggles to do so may well keep him from greatness.

But we tend to as fans I think focus too much on upside and not enough on expected value. Realistically, how many of the D in this class will be true 1d? I’d be shocked if it’s more than a couple. Dickinson probably won’t be the BEST defenseman in this draft, but he is I think most likely of them to be a very good defenseman.

That all sounds fair to me. And if you highly value a player with a middle pair floor, which is a very high floor, then you should love Sam Dickinson.

Personally though, expected value should heavily weight the high end results. For instance, I wouldn't trade Adam Fox for five middle pair D. I think I can get middle pair D elsewhere. So a guy who has a 30% chance of being a #1D I'm going to put ahead of a guy like Dickinson who is closer to 5%, even if Dickinson is a whole pairing ahead in terms of floor.

People go "crazy" over offensive skills with d-men because of how the game is played today. A d-man that can skate, pass, shoot, and handle the puck with authority and creativity are highly prized. Many teams build their offenses from the "D" out.

I'll leave out the creativity part because I don't think Dickinson has that. But he is "A d-man that can skate, pass, shoot, and handle the puck with authority".

He does all the things well. So does Darnell Nurse.
 

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That all sounds fair to me. And if you highly value a player with a middle pair floor, which is a very high floor, then you should love Sam Dickinson.

Personally though, expected value should heavily weight the high end results. For instance, I wouldn't trade Adam Fox for five middle pair D. I think I can get middle pair D elsewhere. So a guy who has a 30% chance of being a #1D I'm going to put ahead of a guy like Dickinson who is closer to 5%, even if Dickinson is a whole pairing ahead in terms of floor.
And that is fine. We all weight those things differently, and for teams it also can depend on the strength of their prospect pool and whether they anticipate having high pick again next year.

As to me, if I felt Dickinson had a (>80% chance of exceeding) floor of solid 2nd pairing defender and had only a 5% chance of being 1d I'd rank that ahead of a guy like Parekh who may have a floor of PP specialist who you have to shelter even in 3rd pairing role until you get sick of him and let him walk, but a 10% chance of being 1D. YMMV.
 

majormajor

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And that is fine. We all weight those things differently, and for teams it also can depend on the strength of their prospect pool and whether they anticipate having high pick again next year.

As to me, if I felt Dickinson had a (>80% chance of exceeding) floor of solid 2nd pairing defender and had only a 5% chance of being 1d I'd rank that ahead of a guy like Parekh who may have a floor of PP specialist who you have to shelter even in 3rd pairing role until you get sick of him and let him walk, but a 10% chance of being 1D. YMMV.

I'll have him ahead of Parekh as well.
 

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I'll have him ahead of Parekh as well.
I admit I am higher on Dickinson than most, but guys like him are so hard to find that when you have a shot at one I think you take it. My top D is Lev, who I think has more risk than Dickinson but less than Parekh, but his upside just feels like it's a level above Dickinson. I also understand why some might rank Buium above Dickinson, but ultimately I have more confidence that Dickinson's game will translate to top pair role than Buium.
 
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biturbo19

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I feel like i'm missing something with Dickinson. But he seems like a slam dunk Top-4 with size, mobility, hockey smarts. Upside from there. The only thing he really lacks is...he might not be a PPQB? Who cares? :laugh:
 
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vildurson

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I feel like i'm missing something with Dickinson. But he seems like a slam dunk Top-4 with size, mobility, hockey smarts. Upside from there. The only thing he really lacks is...he might not be a PPQB? Who cares? :laugh:
Dcikinson is about as surefire as one can be to play on your teeams top 4 for 10-15years after you draft him. On his best days he is probably super solid #2 potential as well.

Bob mentioned this in his latest article and I tend to agree. This is partially why I have Sam as my #2 on draft. Would not hate to pick him as #2 if my job was on the line.

Bit less upside than Levshunov but less risk too.
 

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