LD Mikhail Sergachev (2016, 9th, MTL; traded to TBL)

[ottawah]

Tell me when the projection has been lowered under elite? Top10 picks are for the vast majority projected as elite NHL players, Sergachev has all the tools to become one.

Of course every player drafted in the top ten is projected elite. But how do they turn out on average :

1 - First liner
2 - First Liner
3 - second liner
4 - third liner
5 - second liner
6 - fourth liner
7 - third liner
8 - fourth liner
9 - fourth liner
10 - fringe NHLer

And the chance of getting a second liner or better?

1 - 86%
2 - 90%
3 - 76%
4 - 52%
5 - 52%
6 - 52%
7 - 43%
8 - 24%
9 - 24%
10 - 5%

http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-expected-value-of-nhl-draft-picks-1.317819

 

[ottawa]

Great deal for us, trust me i know all about Sergachev. Those extra seconds he needs to make a play wont be there in the NHL.

His decision making in the dzone has always been a huge red flag for me, ive seen this kid play at least 70 times.

To be fair, a lot of people have seen him play a lot and they all disagree with you lol. And your track record with prospect evaluation isn't exactly great either, to say the least.

 

[lawrence]

To be fair, a lot of people have seen him play a lot and they all disagree with you lol. And your track record isn't exactly great either.

actually he was maybe the 10 % that posted in a is Gudbranson a bust thread that was posted when he was still a Panther, and he mentioned he thought Gudbranson plays like a bottom 6 dman.

everyone else was saying he is a top 4 dman. this was 6 months before Canucks traded for him.


So his scouting is quite reliable, i also personally didn't think he was that good during the OHL playoffs. Decision making skills need work. Right now he is a big boy in a kids a league type of where he is probably bigger then 85% of the players in the league, so he is kinda getting away with running smaller guys around.

He won't have this luxury when he makes the next step, he won't be bigger then 85% of the guys make 55%, so what make him effective in the OHL might not be as easy at the NHL

Haps win trade rather quite badly.

 

[ottawa]

actually he was maybe the 10 % that posted in a is Gudbranson a bust thread that was posted when he was still a Panther, and he mentioned he thought Gudbranson plays like a bottom 6 dman.

everyone else was saying he is a top 4 dman. this was 6 months before Canucks traded for him.


So his scouting is quite reliable, i also personally didn't think he was that good during the OHL playoffs. Decision making skills need work. Right now he is a big boy in a kids a league type of where he is probably bigger then 85% of the players in the league, so he is kinda getting away with running smaller guys around.

He won't have this luxury when he makes the next step, he won't be bigger then 85% of the guys make 55%, so what make him effective in the OHL might not be as easy at the NHL

Haps win trade rather quite badly.

You're saying the guy that just signed a 3.5m contract is a bust? He's at least arguably a #4.

And this is the thread you're taking about, before he got traded to Vancouver. Yes, quite the minority

 

[TT1]

To be fair, a lot of people have seen him play a lot and they all disagree with you lol. And your track record with prospect evaluation isn't exactly great either, to say the least.

Care to name a few examples? I mean prospect evaluation isnt an easy thing to do (just look at our own draft picks, even the pro scouts can't do it properly) but i still want to see you list a few names.

You dont even follow prospects so i dont really know what you're talking about. I've never seen you post in anything prospect related (never seen you post your draft rankings, participate in mock drafts, post on the prospect board, post on the habs nhl draft thread etc.).

 

[Elias Pettersson]

So now that's he's no longer in Montreal, can Habs fans agree with me that sergachev isn't as impressive as they made him out to be?

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

So now that's he's no longer in Montreal, can Habs fans agree with me that sergachev isn't as impressive as they made him out to be?

LOL he was just the main piece in a trade for Jon Drouin... Can you admit Jesse Puljujaarvi isn't as impressive as they made him out to be?

I was saying before the draft Sergachyev guy was who the Flames should pick at 6 (thought the 5 forwards were going top 5). Regardless of need he was BPA. Big, physical, booming shot, perfect English, solid skater, high IQ.

 

[93LEAFS]

I think you can put all bolded in complete busts

I did this for every grouping in the first 2 rounds. I used the barometer of playing 200 games (or on track to play 200 games) as defining the difference between 4th liner/depth defenceman from an outright bust. Some of those guys would be fine returns as 4th liners in the 2nd round.

 

[Malmo]

LOL he was just the main piece in a trade for Jon Drouin... Can you admit Jesse Puljujaarvi isn't as impressive as they made him out to be?

I was saying before the draft Sergachyev guy was who the Flames should pick at 6 (thought the 5 forwards were going top 5). Regardless of need he was BPA. Big, physical, booming shot, perfect English, solid skater, high IQ.

Everything is true besides from high IQ. That's the thing he has to work on. He seems lost from time to time.

 

[DownGoesMcDavid]

If both Drouin and Sergachev reached they max ceiling then this is an absoloute fleece job bt tbay. Well done !!

 

[Everblades13]

I don't know that much about Sergachev, but from what I have read I like him, and the fact that he was considered untouchable and expected to be the cornerstone of Montreal's defense for years to come is encouraging.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

A fair trade in terms of value but Montreal's defense really looks decimated especially for younger players. Markov hasn't many years left and Weber is also getting up there. Losing Subban, Sergachev and Beaulieu is a huge hit in a couple of years. The team looks like it is in a win now mode but just doesn't have the talent to be a top contender. Not sure I like the direction they are going even though Drouin is obviously a young guy.

 

[Advanced stats]

If both Drouin and Sergachev reached they max ceiling then this is an absoloute fleece job bt tbay. Well done !!

Drouin probably has a higher max ceiling than Serg..

Drouin--- 90 point, silky smooth winger.

Sergachev--- 45 point, 2 way top pairing.

Neither will reach their potential though.
Sergachev will be a solid #2( prime Dion Phaneuf)
Drouin will struggle without a top center,(Jakub Vorachek type)

 

[93LEAFS]

Drouin probably has a higher max ceiling than Serg..

Drouin--- 90 point, silky smooth winger.

Sergachev--- 45 point, 2 way top pairing.

Neither will reach their potential though.
Sergachev will be a solid #2( prime Dion Phaneuf)
Drouin will struggle without a top center,(Jakub Vorachek type)

If Drouin ceiling is still a 90 point player, than Sergachev's is a 65 point/20 goal 2-way monster. Sergachev is quite boom/bust in many ways. He's dominant when he wants to be, but he needs to improve consistency and his defensive reads.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

I was a Serg fan when he was a Hab and I am happy we have him.

Still think we lost the trade but it wasn't horrible. Serg liiks like a #1 defenseman in the making, a bit like a PK Subban.

 

[PAZ]

I was a Serg fan when he was a Hab and I am happy we have him.

Still think we lost the trade but it wasn't horrible. Serg liiks like a #1 defenseman in the making, a bit like a PK Subban.

Serg still needs to show a decent amount more, he's only a prospect that hasn't made a huge leap since being drafted. I think he's almost getting overrated due to the fact he was traded for Drouin. But the trade from the Lightning's POV was basically Killorn/Namestnikov + Sergachev + Cap Space for Drouin.

This trade wouldn't have happened if there wasn't the expansion draft. I still think Drouin had a high chance being traded, but he would've got a better return with more time.

 

[Fantomas]

I just cannot pin down Sergachev. He has a very unusual style and different people interpret his decision making differently. I know one thing: I like his situation better now that he is in Tampa. With some initial struggles in Montreal, he would get eaten alive. But there will be less impatience in Tampa and he will make friends with Kucherov, Namestnikov and likely Gusev.

I think that the player's surroundings is an underrated factor in projecting that player's future success. For some guys it can be huge. There is no way to test this, but I think it can be the difference between success and failure. And take a player like Sergachev, who is not your typical 'play-it-safe' type. He needs careful tutoring and to be in a situation where he will be happy and where he will play with guys who can score.

 

[IIIIIIIIIIIIIII]

I was a Serg fan when he was a Hab and I am happy we have him.

Still think we lost the trade but it wasn't horrible. Serg liiks like a #1 defenseman in the making, a bit like a PK Subban.

Sergachev pace of play isn't even close to Subban's. It's not a very good comparison. I do think he will become a number 2 defenseman in this league however, if all goes well.

 

[Noble]

If both Drouin and Sergachev reached they max ceiling then this is an absoloute fleece job bt tbay. Well done !!

This simply isn't true. By saying this, you are severely underestimating Drouin's potential.

If they both reach their max potential I would say that the trade is probably quite even.

 

[Atas2000]

This simply isn't true. By saying this, you are severely underestimating Drouin's potential.

If they both reach their max potential I would say that the trade is probably quite even.

You undervalue the disparity of position. A 1D is worth way more than a top line winger nowadays.

 

[QJL]

Sergachev will be a mid-pairing defender. Not a star from what I've seen.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I like both players.. Montreal won the trade imo... Drouin can really help them now , plus he is still young and is still approaching his prime. One of the most exciting young players in the league.

 

[Fulham]

Serg has a very high ceiling. But he's in a awkward stage in his development, he isn't NHL ready, but its impossible for him to improve in a junior environment. Perfect example of a Player that should be playing 20min a night in the AHL but can't.

 

[Oneiro]

I think that the player's surroundings is an underrated factor in projecting that player's future success. For some guys it can be huge. There is no way to test this, but I think it can be the difference between success and failure. And take a player like Sergachev, who is not your typical 'play-it-safe' type. He needs careful tutoring and to be in a situation where he will be happy and where he will play with guys who can score.

This is the most underrated aspect of the game.

Very few know what it's like to be surrounded by those who have a self-imbued sense of responsibility and a monster attention to detail - true greatness. So they discount that part of the development curve.

It's sheer luck for a lot of these kids that they're drafted into this or that organization. Or they happen to learn under this or that coach.

 

[93LEAFS]

Serg has a very high ceiling. But he's in a awkward stage in his development, he isn't NHL ready, but its impossible for him to improve in a junior environment. Perfect example of a Player that should be playing 20min a night in the AHL but can't.

Look at Pietriangelo vs Bogosian. He absolutely can learn more at the CHL level. His positioning and defensive zone play is far from mastered at that level.