LD Aron Kiviharju - IFK Helsinki, Liiga (2024, 122nd, MIN) Part2

[thestonedkoala]

Has there ever been any prospect that has dropped and then became a top 5 prospect/player? Off the top of my head, Rossi was seen as a top 5 guy, but dropped. He's been pretty good. Peyton Krebs is meh. Martin Frk never developed. Maybe Shane Wright? Went from top pick to 4th, but does that really count?

 

[BB88]

Has there ever been any prospect that has dropped and then became a top 5 prospect/player? Off the top of my head, Rossi was seen as a top 5 guy, but dropped. He's been pretty good. Peyton Krebs is meh. Martin Frk never developed. Maybe Shane Wright? Went from top pick to 4th, but does that really count?

Lambert is still to be seen, he dropped pretty heavily but now things are looking helluva lot better

55 points in 64 games in the AHL and lighting fast

 

[BagHead]

Has there ever been any prospect that has dropped and then became a top 5 prospect/player? Off the top of my head, Rossi was seen as a top 5 guy, but dropped. He's been pretty good. Peyton Krebs is meh. Martin Frk never developed. Maybe Shane Wright? Went from top pick to 4th, but does that really count?

Top 5 in their respective draft, you mean? Why, your very own Matt Boldy qualifies, I think (if you're considering Rossi, anyway). Usually guys fall for a reason. Sometimes those reasons are stupid and result in a good player becoming available later than they should be.

Brandon Saad is another off the top of my head. I wouldn't call him top-5 in his draft, but he's a far shot better than 43rd. In the summer before his draft year he was being talked about as going in the top-5 or top-10.

With Kiviharju, the uncertainty due to injuries is a pretty good reason, but if his health holds he may outshine his draft spot by a lot.

 

[William H Bonney]

Has there ever been any prospect that has dropped and then became a top 5 prospect/player? Off the top of my head, Rossi was seen as a top 5 guy, but dropped. He's been pretty good. Peyton Krebs is meh. Martin Frk never developed. Maybe Shane Wright? Went from top pick to 4th, but does that really count?

It's very rare. People have a hard time letting go of hype, even when it starts way too early in most cases. The list of drastic prospect "sliders" whose slides were justified in hindsight is extremely long. The list of guys who proved the slide wrong is not.

Not that it doesn't happen but it's usually not on severe sliders. Nearly every big slider based on their pre-U17 hype ends up getting a ton of folks here saying they're a steal and they're going to prove people wrong. Whether it was Angelo Esposito, Rob Schremp, Evan McGrath, Jake Wise, Oliver Kylington, and on and on and on. Sometimes the sliders do end up proving people wrong to an extent, but it's usually not the huge sliders, just the slight ones a la Mat Barzal. A guy like Saad is a bigger slide example, although his NHL career has been very up and down, even if he's still a plus value in the 2nd round.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Top 5 in their respective draft, you mean? Why, your very own Matt Boldy qualifies, I think (if you're considering Rossi, anyway). Usually guys fall for a reason. Sometimes those reasons are stupid and result in a good player becoming available later than they should be.

Brandon Saad is another off the top of my head. I wouldn't call him top-5 in his draft, but he's a far shot better than 43rd. In the summer before his draft year he was being talked about as going in the top-5 or top-10.

With Kiviharju, the uncertainty due to injuries is a pretty good reason, but if his health holds he may outshine his draft spot by a lot.

Boldy wasn't considered a top pick though. He did slide a little bit compared to his teammates he was considered the biggest project.

Yes! I forgot about Esposito. Also Schroeder.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Selected by Moncton in the 2024 CHL Import Draft

 

[David Suzuki]

Moncton is likely to be a top 2 or 3 team in the Q next year for what that's worth. Be cool if he came over, but I doubt it.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

Moncton is likely to be a top 2 or 3 team in the Q next year for what that's worth. Be cool if he came over, but I doubt it.

The owner is one of the richest men in Canada.

When Moncton wants a top player they usually make it happen.

 

[teravaineSAROS]

Moncton is likely to be a top 2 or 3 team in the Q next year for what that's worth. Be cool if he came over, but I doubt it.

Nowadays it seems like going to North America has been a great solution for Finnish prospects.

He could get some offense going there and he could work on his skating. Liiga is such a defensive league now it's stifling players offense.

 

[ChicagoBullsFan]

Nowadays it seems like going to North America has been a great solution for Finnish prospects.

He could get some offense going there and he could work on his skating. Liiga is such a defensive league now it's stifling players offense.

Absolutely true.
SM liiga today is more soccer on the ice than real hockey.

Hopefully Minnesota Wild management has brains left
and they do only right thing and put Kiviharju into Moncton.

CHL is world's best development league and world's best hoaches work there
so better to go there than staying to HIFK which has been most injury prone team last 10-12 yrs.
HIFK has weak and meh roster for coming SM liiga season so it is better for Kiviharju to go QMJHL.

 

[Albatros]

Again, he has a Liiga contract until 2025 and unless HIFK releases him that's where he'll be.

 

[MNRube]

Absolutely true.
SM liiga today is more soccer on the ice than real hockey.

Hopefully Minnesota Wild management has brains left
and they do only right thing and put Kiviharju into Moncton.

CHL is world's best development league and world's best hoaches work there
so better to go there than staying to HIFK which has been most injury prone team last 10-12 yrs.
HIFK has weak and meh roster for coming SM liiga season so it is better for Kiviharju to go QMJHL.

CHL would be the worst thing for this kid. He needs to learn to defend against men. NCAA or AHL would be much better than playing pond hockey in the Q

 

[oooooooooohCanada]

Has there ever been any prospect that has dropped and then became a top 5 prospect/player? Off the top of my head, Rossi was seen as a top 5 guy, but dropped. He's been pretty good. Peyton Krebs is meh. Martin Frk never developed. Maybe Shane Wright? Went from top pick to 4th, but does that really count?

Liljegren? He was seen as like guaranteed top 5, could challenge higher I believe. Ended up going 17th? After mono+injuries in his draft year. He's nothing special but is definitely an NHLer and has very strong underlyings. Probably tops out as a #4.

 

[Circulartheory]

Has there ever been any prospect that has dropped and then became a top 5 prospect/player? Off the top of my head, Rossi was seen as a top 5 guy, but dropped. He's been pretty good. Peyton Krebs is meh. Martin Frk never developed. Maybe Shane Wright? Went from top pick to 4th, but does that really count?

By drop, do you just mean a few spots since your mentioning Rossi and Wright?

Off the top of my head...Sean Couturier, Filip Forsberg, Cam Fowler, Matthew Barzal etc.

Or did you mean into like the 4th round since this is a Kiviharju thread?

 

[Tube Skates]

This thread takes me back to the Nick Ebert era. He’s still playing pro hockey and gets paid for it. That’s a win. He was considered top 5 going in to his draft year and fell to 7th round

 

[Norwegianoiler]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1807604574963781781

But will he fill their opponents' nets with pucks?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I had no issue with him falling. There were fair concerns, but they’ve started to go overboard. He missed virtually a full season. Anyone being so confident in what he is or will be should at least be showing that there were saying this before the knee injury. It’s pretty unfair and also not very logical to be judging a player on a few games in a two week tournament coming back from a serious injury. It takes time to hit your best form.

I think there are real concerns about all the injuries. It’s also true that he’s small and an average or worse skater. There aren’t that many defensemen like that in the NHL, but I think it’s gotten to the piling on stage for the sake of it rather than truly rational arguments.

 

[Dead Coyote]

Chychrun fell to the late 20s off an injured and disappointing draft year. Same with Dvorak. Kaleb Lawrence wasn't as highly rated as Kiviharju but he missed his draft year too and fell into the 7th. Taking this guy in the 4th, I mean I expected him to fall but the emphasis on his size and skating is way overblown IMO. His size and skating could be better but they aren't integral to his game. He's a maestro in the offensive zone who sees the ice fantastically and his stickwork is perfectly fine in the defensive end. He leans more offense but he isn't even particularly bad defensively, he's just not strong and the type of guy who is gonna hold down the fort in front of the net. His stats should speak for themselves though. He clearly has the skill.

 

[Albatros]

In terms of size he's going to be basically the same as Kimmo Timonen.

 

[57special]

Chychrun fell to the late 20s off an injured and disappointing draft year. Same with Dvorak. Kaleb Lawrence wasn't as highly rated as Kiviharju but he missed his draft year too and fell into the 7th. Taking this guy in the 4th, I mean I expected him to fall but the emphasis on his size and skating is way overblown IMO. His size and skating could be better but they aren't integral to his game. He's a maestro in the offensive zone who sees the ice fantastically and his stickwork is perfectly fine in the defensive end. He leans more offense but he isn't even particularly bad defensively, he's just not strong and the type of guy who is gonna hold down the fort in front of the net. His stats should speak for themselves though. He clearly has the skill.

He was picked 16th.

I for one, am glad my team picked Kivi, if only to get rabid and opinionated Finnish fans posting on our boards again, like the did when we had Koivu, Haula, and the Boy Wonder, Granlund.
I mean, Kumpulainen wasn't getting it done.

 

[Dead Coyote]

He was picked 16th.

I for one, am glad my team picked Kivi, if only to get rabid and opinionated Finnish fans posting on our boards again, like the did when we had Koivu, Haula, and the Boy Wonder, Granlund.
I mean, Kumpulainen wasn't getting it done.

We traded up to grab him at 16th because the rumour was that a team wanted him in the 20s and Detroit was willing to trade us the pick if we took Datsyuk.

But yeah, you're right. At any rate I think there's lots of examples of players falling or being drafted late who have took off, and I think Kiviharju will be one of those. Plus Minnesota has always seemed great at developing D.

Love that Kiviharju said he was the "Steal of the draft" when he was drafted.

 

[BagHead]

We traded up to grab him at 16th because the rumour was that a team wanted him in the 20s and Detroit was willing to trade us the pick if we took Datsyuk.

But yeah, you're right. At any rate I think there's lots of examples of players falling or being drafted late who have took off, and I think Kiviharju will be one of those. Plus Minnesota has always seemed great at developing D.

Love that Kiviharju said he was the "Steal of the draft" when he was drafted.

Seemed. They haven't developed an NHL defenseman since Soucy (or Belpedio, if you're generous). The good news is that Kiviharju can be developed by HIFK instead, and that might be the most underrated part of the pick.

I love that "steal of the draft" thing about him too, btw. I love the chip on his shoulder, and I hope he is driven by it for years to come.

 

[LeProspector]

One of the more overhyped pre-draft prospects in recent memory, for sure.

Up there with Aatu Raty, Nick Ebert and Kirill Kabanov.

Here‘s hoping he comes back from injury and finds his game again. But small defenders that can’t skate and haven’t shown progression in a few years scare teams.

Right… yet again…

 

[Dead Coyote]

Seemed. They haven't developed an NHL defenseman since Soucy (or Belpedio, if you're generous). The good news is that Kiviharju can be developed by HIFK instead, and that might be the most underrated part of the pick.

I love that "steal of the draft" thing about him too, btw. I love the chip on his shoulder, and I hope he is driven by it for years to come.

I mean I would still count them as developing Addison and Faber, and considering their blueline has pretty much been Dumba, Brodin, Suter, and Spurgeon for a vast majority of their time I think they did pretty damn well. Time will see if they've hit on anyone recently but I mean...that was an extremely solid top 4 for years.

 

[Hinterland]

Rooting for this kid. So confident and well spoken at the draft. I really hope he makes it.