Last 14 Games: 2 regulation wins = WHY? Let's break it down...

[The Panther]

Sorry for the mini-essay here -- in the past 14 games, the Oil have a pathetic 2 regulation wins.

They have scored 2.7 goals per game (in regulation).

The Oil have scored 26 even-strength or short-handed goals (not incl. novelty overtime or empty-netters... not that they ever get the latter) in these 14 games. (For comparison, in their past 14 games, the Dallas Stars have scored 42.)

During this brief stretch, the Oil have the fifth worst record in the NHL, being out-performed by Chicago and Seattle (last spring's Finals' opponent, the Panthers, have the very best record, btw).

So, obviously, in any slump, everything is bad (offense, defence, goaltending). But one thing has been pretty good for Edmonton, which is the Power-Play. During this slump, the PP is at 34.3%, fourth-best in the NHL.

Here's how the Oil's stats break down over these 14 miserable games:

Overall record: 28th
Overall offense: 18th (but I suspect they're around 20th if OT isn't counted)
Overall defense: 31st
Power-Play: 4th
Shot on Goal: 2nd

So... what's going on here? How do we square the club's offense drying up just as the PP is hitting season-best heights?

Also, it seems to me that since last season, the Oilers have consistently been getting large volume of shots on goal but then having a poor shooting-percentage. Is this a Knoblach-related thing? I guess as a very "puck-possession" type of club, the Oil will tend to hold onto the biscuit for extended periods, but it appears they aren't then able to generate high-quality shots as an end result. (Either that, or their shooters just suck.)

During these 14 games of misery, Draisaitl is the 2nd-leading scorer in the NHL, and McDavid 19th (with a bunch of other guys tied). Here's how the club's roster scored over this stretch:

14GP:
Draisaitl -- 22 PTS (11G, 11A) -2
McDavid -- 16 PTS (3G, 13A) -13
Bouchard -- 14 PTS (4G, 10A) -4
Hyman -- 8 PTS (5G, 3A) -5
Nugent-Hopkins -- 7 PTS (1G, 6A) -4
Perry -- 5 PTS (5G, 0A) +2
J. Skinner -- 5 PTS (3G, 2A) +2 (NOTE: Only 10GP)
Ekholm -- 5 PTS (1G, 4A) -10 (NOTE: Only 10GP)
Kulak -- 5 PTS (1G, 4A) -7

And here's how the goaltending has shaken down these 14 GP:
Skinner 3-5-1 = .880
Pickard 2-3-0 = .879
Of goalies who've appeared in 5+ games, this ranks Skinner 42nd and Pickard 43rd out of 52 goalies.

I don't know what's more disturbing -- McDavid falling off the cliff offensively and going -13 in 14 games, or Skinner and Pickard both being out-duelled by goalies on teams like San Jose.

________________________

In short, why has this veteran-laden team with (seemingly) a great deal of offensive skill (eight past 30-goal scorers are regularly on the roster, with another, Kane, waiting in the wings) become a team that needs 50+ shots on goal to score?

Why has the PP gotten quite good just as the ES offense has dried up like a bone in the desert? (To put it another way: Why has a 39-year-old on third-line duty become the club's 2nd-best goal scorer?)

Why has S. Skinner seemingly regressed to his worst full season this year (just when he should be starting to peak)?

Whis is McDavid suddenly stuggling to put put up points, and utterly sucking in ES results? (For comparison, from Nov. 9th to Dec. 31st, McDavid put up 44 points in 23 games -- easily 1st in the League in both points and ES points.) Then, this calendar year, he's 11th in points-per-game.

I don't know the answer, but I do know one thing -- over the past two years, Oiler-slumps and extended team struggles have generally occurred when two things coincided: McDavid and Ekholm both struggling.

This makes sense, of course, as McDavid is the top forward and Ekholm the best (or at least more reliable) defenceman, not to mention one of only two D who has been hard to play against. We saw the early stages of 2023-24, when the club was nearly last overall for 15 games, that both McDavid (injured) and Ekholm (hurt, struggling) were playing their respective worst. As a result, the club completely collapsed. Now, I think the same thing is happening again: McDavid has (relatively) gone into the toilet, and Ekholm is injured and tired (thanks 'Four Nations' thingie, for burning out our top-Dman!). Without the two of them anchoring the offense and defence, respectively, this team kind of sucks.

While I'm fairly confident that McDavid will break out of his mini-slump, I'm a little more concerned about Ekholm, as he's soon to be 35 and has been putting up big, hard minutes for a long time. To the club's credit, they did try to shore up the physical end of the defense core at the deadline, so maybe that will (eventually) help.

I still don't know why the team can't score, though. Arvidsson, Nuge, Podkolzin, Henrique. these guys just aren't getting anything done, offensively. (Nuge has 1 more ES point this season than Connor Brown.) I guess I'm okay with Hyman, but obviously a big (if expected) regression. During the past 14 games, the fifth-best PPG player is Jeff Skinner, who is always healthy-scratched.

Discuss.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

The answer is right in the middle of your stats and has nothing to do with offence.

We are 31st in defence during that time.

Also, I think McDavid‘s issue has been that He was bit hard by that flu bug for the last four weeks and just seems to be getting out of it now.

Making the decision to have him play three games in four nights right after the four nations even more puzzling

 

[The Panther]

Making the decision to have him play three games in four nights right after the four nations even more puzzling

Yes, I agree. I thought the sensible thing to do then would have been to 'lean' on McDavid after the tournament to take the first game off and rest up. I doubt anyone tried to do so, though.

This season, I've often been perplexed by some of the goaltending starts, too. Like, the previous game vs. Buffalo seemed a logical time to play Pickard. Why start Skinner AGAIN when we know he tends to perform worse when played a lot.

 

[fireantz]

Everyone talks about the lack of offence from the bottom six but you can’t win if your top players are minus

 

[GM BoJack]

Too many passengers on too many nights.

The team is notorious for being ass when 1 or 2 roster guys are out of the line up. They don’t have the “next man up” mentality.

Zero urgency from the usual suspects.

 

[Shanahanigans]

Knob is a bad offensive coach. We’re getting to the slot way less than we did last year and way less than under Woodcroft. His strategy is get it to the point and let the dmen hammer it. Were first in shots by defensemen by by a mile, which kills offense for forwards. Also, it leads to odd man rushes. Look at the 3 goals Buffalo scored last night. 2 of the 3 were puck funneled to the point turned over up high by a winger , leading to an odd man rush. Knob is coaching Tippett offensive and defensive hockey this season.

 

[The Panther]

Knob is a bad offensive coach. We’re getting to the slot way less than we did last year and way less than under Woodcroft. His strategy is get it to the point and let the dmen hammer it. Were first in shots by defensemen by by a mile, which kills offense for forwards. Also, it leads to odd man rushes. Look at the 3 goals Buffalo scored last night. 2 of the 3 were puck funneled to the point turned over up high by a winger , leading to an odd man rush. Knob is coaching Tippett offensive and defensive hockey this season.

I think you're right. The forwards are "getting to the slot" less than before. Even Hyman -- whose entire game is based on doggedly getting to the net -- isn't getting there as much. (The one exception is Draisaitl, who has finally been carrying the puck to the net and shooting from distance, two things I've been begging him to do for years!).

Typically, this team doesn't make any sense. They brought in Tippett to coach defense... with the result that the club's defense sucked and offense soared. Now, they've brought in Woodcroft (McDavid's buddy) and Coffey (offensive player), with the result that... the defence improved and the offense sucks.

I guess when we see Frederic in and a healthy Ekholm back, we'll have a better sense of whether or not the team D will stabilize again.

 

[Chet Manley]

It's hard to know what to attribute it to. What illness, injury, or communal funk is going on? Like Nuge's arms are wet noodles at totally random times. He's playing soft it is most likely something more than another year older.

 

[subnet]

Good thread!

Well hopefully we can get the right players and/or figure out the right system before the trade deadline, otherwise we are in a world of hurt. lol

Our #1 goalie needs to be better and be NOT a sieve. Ugh. I so wanted an addition at the deadline.

The best player in the world needs to play like it. Both with and without the puck. Yes #97 needs to figure it out.

 

[Senor Catface]

Good thread!

Well hopefully we can get the right players and/or figure out the right system before the trade deadline, otherwise we are in a world of hurt. lol

Our #1 goalie needs to be better and be NOT a sieve. Ugh. I so wanted an addition at the deadline.

The best player in the world needs to play like it. Both with and without the puck. Yes #97 needs to figure it out.

 

[K1984]

They can't win in regulation because they take large portions of each game off and/or effectively score at least 1/2 goals per game in their own net.

Against shitty teams we tend to play at about 50% effort, and juuuust do enough to push to OT where we win because of the skill disparity. Against the good teams we have to work our bag off to score 4-5 just to get it to extra time if we're lucky.

It is impossible to win against anyone with how they are playing defensively and in net.

 

[oXo Cube]

They've been a tread water possession team instead of a dominant one over this stretch, which is a notable decline but it's not bottom 3 defense bad. They're not 30th in defense they're 30th in goals against.

The 5v5 offense has gone ice cold and the goaltending can't bail that out the way the offense was bailing out the crap goaltending for the first half of the year.

 

[Sethual]

It is too hard to ask defenders to defend or do anything with how they are deployed. Its a pure coaching discrepancy that we haven't seen since the days of Eakins. Idk maybe taking AHL coaches and expecting greatness from them is gonna like give you problems against elite teams + teams that suck and that's purely because of NHL coaching experience behind the other benches. It's also why our players get stuck up the ice so much after a bad turnover the whole team is just NOT TOLD TO BE READY for anything bad happening its all "lets play our game we are so tough grr" from Knob and then calls the team passengers. He is the passenger and is only here because of: 1. He coached McDavid 2. We don't wanna pay anyone with real experience after trying it once or twice and giving up after the coaches couldn't do much with the absolute trash rosters we used to put on the ice.

Which really really REALLY shouldn't be the case now. We have a coach mismatch and as soon as they started the season off getting destroyed (cause the whole LEAGUE watched Knob and how he coached in the finals) and NOT DOING ANYTHING ABOUT FIRING THE GUY. So they want this to happen then. They want us out in the first or second round and if we make the third round it should be nothing less than our team getting the brooms out and the golf clubs dusted off for another nice season of hitting the courses and being rich n stuff.

 

[FlameChampion]

You bring up lots of good points about things.

Its baffling how Knoblauch, who seemed to have the midas touch when it came to making tweaks at the right times, just looks clueless this year.

This team has so many problems where he just refuses to make any kind of noticeable adjustments to fix the problems. He seems overly stubborn at this point.

But to make matters worse, the occasional time the Oilers actually play well, he goes and changes the line combos or defensive pairings just because?

This team has always had elements of frustration and their play in general doesn’t make a lot of sense. Extremely hard team to figure out what is going on, But they have taken it to a whole new level this year.

 

[sepHF]

at some point we need to start considering that the coaching may be a problem.

I know people like to tear down individual players, but almost everyone on the roster is underperforming

 

[K1984]

at some point we need to start considering that the coaching may be a problem.

I know people like to tear down individual players, but almost everyone on the roster is underperforming

No offence, but after 5 coaches in the McDavid/Draisaitl era I have no idea how anyone can conclude that its all the coach AGAIN when this team does exactly what we're seeing right now about a year and a half at most into each of their tenures.

Every single time we play well, everyone is happy with the coach, and it's all gravy. Then randomly, out of nowhere, the team plays trash hockey en masse, appear to not really care or work hard to get out of it, then everyone looks at the coach.

No more, enough. It's not Knoblauch. After the 5th time of this exact script it's baffling to me that anyone thinks it's all him. The only other alternative is firing him, then replacing him with the understanding that these idiots will get the next guy fired no later than about November 2027.

 

[Lacaar]

No offence, but after 5 coaches in the McDavid/Draisaitl era I have no idea how anyone can conclude that its all the coach AGAIN when this team does exactly what we're seeing right now about a year and a half at most into each of their tenures.

Every single time we play well, everyone is happy with the coach, and it's all gravy. Then randomly, out of nowhere, the team plays trash hockey en masse, appear to not really care or work hard to get out of it, then everyone looks at the coach.

No more, enough. It's not Knoblauch. After the 5th time of this exact script it's baffling to me that anyone thinks it's all him. The only other alternative is firing him, then replacing him with the understanding that these idiots will get the next guy fired no later than about November 2027.

I don't think it's the coach himself, or the staff. But I think there may have to be an acknowledgement that this team may have the propensity to tune out coaches no matter who they are. Just by the fact that they've shown the ability to lose their game after about 150 games with a coach twice in a row.

They did this with Tippet, and they did it with Woodcroft.

I don't understand how or the why. But I do understand trends. I hope this isn't the case. But because I don't hope it doesn't mean it's not what MAY be happening.

There's no way they will fire Knoblauch this year. But if they continue this play to end the season and into the playoffs with an early exit. Then fire him.. Then come out gang busters next year with their new sexy coach. I'm going to be severely disappointed with them. The reputation coach killers will be VERY well deserved for this group.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

at some point we need to start considering that the coaching may be a problem.

I know people like to tear down individual players, but almost everyone on the roster is underperforming

Knoblauch is coaching like Dave Tippett lately.

Which to me signals something is happening above him.

But please for the love of God don't axe yet another coach. And if their answer is Quennville then they can f*** right off and even further.

 

[K1984]

I don't think it's the coach himself, or the staff. But I think there may have to be an acknowledgement that this team may have the propensity to tune out coaches no matter who they are. Just by the fact that they've shown the ability to lose their game after about 150 games with a coach twice in a row.

They did this with Tippet, and they did it with Woodcroft.

I don't understand how or the why. But I do understand trends. I hope this isn't the case. But because I don't hope it doesn't mean it's not what MAY be happening.

There's no way they will fire Knoblauch this year. But if they continue this play to end the season and into the playoffs with an early exit. Then fire him.. Then come out gang busters next year with their new sexy coach. I'm going to be severely disappointed with them. The reputation coach killers will be VERY well deserved for this group.

It's embarrassing at this point. Every single player in that room should be personally embarrassed and be working their bag off to flip the script.

That's not what this team does though. Just a shoulder shrug, then right back to being a joke after a single good game. Ho hum.

 

[sepHF]

No offence, but after 5 coaches in the McDavid/Draisaitl era I have no idea how anyone can conclude that its all the coach AGAIN when this team does exactly what we're seeing right now about a year and a half at most into each of their tenures.

Every single time we play well, everyone is happy with the coach, and it's all gravy. Then randomly, out of nowhere, the team plays trash hockey en masse, appear to not really care or work hard to get out of it, then everyone looks at the coach.

No more, enough. It's not Knoblauch. After the 5th time of this exact script it's baffling to me that anyone thinks it's all him. The only other alternative is firing him, then replacing him with the understanding that these idiots will get the next guy fired no later than about November 2027.

There are only a handful of players on the roster who have been around for all these changes. McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH, Nurse

2/4 of those guys i would argue are actually playing better this year than last year, but it's bewildering how badly a lot of the newer acquisitions play has faltered

I don't think it's all Knoblauchs fault by any means, but i think its playing a factor. I'm not advocating to fire him, but I havent loved how he's handled the team this year. The constant line blendering has been frustrating

I'm sure the short summer didn't help and I guess this team just lacks motivation in the regular season this year. Would have loved to see someone rally the troops and use last year as motivation like Florida did the year prior

I think this season Draisaitl, Kulak, Nurse, Perry have played up to, or exceeded their level and the rest of the entire roster has had a noticeable decline in their play. When almost the entire team is struggling its hard to point fingers at individual players, and it makes me wonder if the coaching isn't landing

 

[EnufAlready]

97, as our captain, must lead the way. He refuses to follow a team approach in the dzone and on the backcheck this season. Evidenced by the goal the other night...two options, play the puck carrier hard to the wall or pick up the high forward. He does neither and the puck is in the net. Every time we don't have possession in the dzone he chases. Never sticks to a plan and it makes it impossible for the rest. Lots of other issues including goaltending, scoring, etc.... but our Captain must be better.

 

[FlameChampion]

Knoblauch is coaching like Dave Tippett lately.

Which to me signals something is happening above him.

But please for the love of God don't axe yet another coach. And if their answer is Quennville then they can f*** right off and even further.

It is bizarre how after about a year of said coach, they all kind of coach the same and make a lot of the same decisions.

 

[K1984]

There are only a handful of players on the roster who have been around for all these changes. McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH, Nurse

2/4 of those guys i would argue are actually playing better this year than last year, but it's bewildering how badly a lot of the newer acquisitions play has faltered

I don't think it's all Knoblauchs fault by any means, but i think its playing a factor. I'm not advocating to fire him, but I havent loved how he's handled the team this year. The constant line blendering has been frustrating

I'm sure the short summer didn't help and I guess this team just lacks motivation in the regular season this year. Would have loved to see someone rally the troops and use last year as motivation like Florida did the year prior

I think this season Draisaitl, Kulak, Nurse, Perry have played up to, or exceeded their level and the rest of the entire roster has had a noticeable decline in their play. When almost the entire team is struggling its hard to point fingers at individual players, and it makes me wonder if the coaching isn't landing

He's left a lot to be desired for sure lately, but to sympathize with him, ALL of these players basically decided to go to total shit and be non-factors at best or detriments at worst all at the same time:

McDavid
Ekholm
Bouchard
Skinner (Stuart)
RNH

There are others too, but that list has our #1C, our #1 and 2 D, the #1G and the #1 LW. Short of throwing shit against the wall to see what sticks (largely what he's been doing), I don't know what a coach can really do when nearly every player in every key position on the team is playing about their worst possible hockey all at the same time. There's no lever to even pull when you literally have one single player up front doing their job on a consistent basis. Would love for someone in the media to ask a member of the core that has been here for all 5 why they think they always do this after about a season and a half with every single new coach.

For the most part, this list of players has been mediocre at best the whole year by their standards, but Knoblauch found a way to get us to 3rd in the NHL barely over a month ago and 4 points out of first. Then this group decided to take their game down a notch from mediocre, to terrible and now here we are.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Knoblauch is coaching like Dave Tippett lately.

Which to me signals something is happening above him.

But please for the love of God don't axe yet another coach. And if their answer is Quennville then they can f*** right off and even further.

Put a different way this team is playing like the guys that got two previous coaches fired.

The Summer of Jeff negated scoring depth instead of improving it. The younger, bigger ex-Oilers are all producing career years given opportunity, trust and confidence in new environments. Hard regression on virtually all support players not named Cory Perry. This smaller, older team can't outscore their annual own zone defending extended periods of malaise and now this season they've hit the ditch two for prolonged time. Quality of goaltending isn't good or consistent enough and gets exposed badly when the team structure and puck management evaporates in front of them. Penalty kill was never going to be repeatable at 95% kill rate but this year's replacements have this key function in lowest third in league. Power play is still good - its where this team has spent big on talent - but Bouchard regression in production ties into the league game planning to stop a one time historic power play.

It's never really been a coaching issue. The pattern of loose play and ditch dive in an annual occurrence regardless who is opening the doors behind the bench. Unfortunately the team this year was jolted backwards with a terrible summer in reworking a game 7 Cup Roster.