The Panther
Registered User
Sorry for the mini-essay here -- in the past 14 games, the Oil have a pathetic 2 regulation wins.
They have scored 2.7 goals per game (in regulation).
The Oil have scored 26 even-strength or short-handed goals (not incl. novelty overtime or empty-netters... not that they ever get the latter) in these 14 games. (For comparison, in their past 14 games, the Dallas Stars have scored 42.)
During this brief stretch, the Oil have the fifth worst record in the NHL, being out-performed by Chicago and Seattle (last spring's Finals' opponent, the Panthers, have the very best record, btw).
So, obviously, in any slump, everything is bad (offense, defence, goaltending). But one thing has been pretty good for Edmonton, which is the Power-Play. During this slump, the PP is at 34.3%, fourth-best in the NHL.
Here's how the Oil's stats break down over these 14 miserable games:
Overall record: 28th
Overall offense: 18th (but I suspect they're around 20th if OT isn't counted)
Overall defense: 31st
Power-Play: 4th
Shot on Goal: 2nd
So... what's going on here? How do we square the club's offense drying up just as the PP is hitting season-best heights?
Also, it seems to me that since last season, the Oilers have consistently been getting large volume of shots on goal but then having a poor shooting-percentage. Is this a Knoblach-related thing? I guess as a very "puck-possession" type of club, the Oil will tend to hold onto the biscuit for extended periods, but it appears they aren't then able to generate high-quality shots as an end result. (Either that, or their shooters just suck.)
During these 14 games of misery, Draisaitl is the 2nd-leading scorer in the NHL, and McDavid 19th (with a bunch of other guys tied). Here's how the club's roster scored over this stretch:
14GP:
Draisaitl -- 22 PTS (11G, 11A) -2
McDavid -- 16 PTS (3G, 13A) -13
Bouchard -- 14 PTS (4G, 10A) -4
Hyman -- 8 PTS (5G, 3A) -5
Nugent-Hopkins -- 7 PTS (1G, 6A) -4
Perry -- 5 PTS (5G, 0A) +2
J. Skinner -- 5 PTS (3G, 2A) +2 (NOTE: Only 10GP)
Ekholm -- 5 PTS (1G, 4A) -10 (NOTE: Only 10GP)
Kulak -- 5 PTS (1G, 4A) -7
And here's how the goaltending has shaken down these 14 GP:
Skinner 3-5-1 = .880
Pickard 2-3-0 = .879
Of goalies who've appeared in 5+ games, this ranks Skinner 42nd and Pickard 43rd out of 52 goalies.
I don't know what's more disturbing -- McDavid falling off the cliff offensively and going -13 in 14 games, or Skinner and Pickard both being out-duelled by goalies on teams like San Jose.
________________________
In short, why has this veteran-laden team with (seemingly) a great deal of offensive skill (eight past 30-goal scorers are regularly on the roster, with another, Kane, waiting in the wings) become a team that needs 50+ shots on goal to score?
Why has the PP gotten quite good just as the ES offense has dried up like a bone in the desert? (To put it another way: Why has a 39-year-old on third-line duty become the club's 2nd-best goal scorer?)
Why has S. Skinner seemingly regressed to his worst full season this year (just when he should be starting to peak)?
Whis is McDavid suddenly stuggling to put put up points, and utterly sucking in ES results? (For comparison, from Nov. 9th to Dec. 31st, McDavid put up 44 points in 23 games -- easily 1st in the League in both points and ES points.) Then, this calendar year, he's 11th in points-per-game.
I don't know the answer, but I do know one thing -- over the past two years, Oiler-slumps and extended team struggles have generally occurred when two things coincided: McDavid and Ekholm both struggling.
This makes sense, of course, as McDavid is the top forward and Ekholm the best (or at least more reliable) defenceman, not to mention one of only two D who has been hard to play against. We saw the early stages of 2023-24, when the club was nearly last overall for 15 games, that both McDavid (injured) and Ekholm (hurt, struggling) were playing their respective worst. As a result, the club completely collapsed. Now, I think the same thing is happening again: McDavid has (relatively) gone into the toilet, and Ekholm is injured and tired (thanks 'Four Nations' thingie, for burning out our top-Dman!). Without the two of them anchoring the offense and defence, respectively, this team kind of sucks.
While I'm fairly confident that McDavid will break out of his mini-slump, I'm a little more concerned about Ekholm, as he's soon to be 35 and has been putting up big, hard minutes for a long time. To the club's credit, they did try to shore up the physical end of the defense core at the deadline, so maybe that will (eventually) help.
I still don't know why the team can't score, though. Arvidsson, Nuge, Podkolzin, Henrique. these guys just aren't getting anything done, offensively. (Nuge has 1 more ES point this season than Connor Brown.) I guess I'm okay with Hyman, but obviously a big (if expected) regression. During the past 14 games, the fifth-best PPG player is Jeff Skinner, who is always healthy-scratched.
Discuss.
They have scored 2.7 goals per game (in regulation).
The Oil have scored 26 even-strength or short-handed goals (not incl. novelty overtime or empty-netters... not that they ever get the latter) in these 14 games. (For comparison, in their past 14 games, the Dallas Stars have scored 42.)
During this brief stretch, the Oil have the fifth worst record in the NHL, being out-performed by Chicago and Seattle (last spring's Finals' opponent, the Panthers, have the very best record, btw).
So, obviously, in any slump, everything is bad (offense, defence, goaltending). But one thing has been pretty good for Edmonton, which is the Power-Play. During this slump, the PP is at 34.3%, fourth-best in the NHL.
Here's how the Oil's stats break down over these 14 miserable games:
Overall record: 28th
Overall offense: 18th (but I suspect they're around 20th if OT isn't counted)
Overall defense: 31st
Power-Play: 4th
Shot on Goal: 2nd
So... what's going on here? How do we square the club's offense drying up just as the PP is hitting season-best heights?
Also, it seems to me that since last season, the Oilers have consistently been getting large volume of shots on goal but then having a poor shooting-percentage. Is this a Knoblach-related thing? I guess as a very "puck-possession" type of club, the Oil will tend to hold onto the biscuit for extended periods, but it appears they aren't then able to generate high-quality shots as an end result. (Either that, or their shooters just suck.)
During these 14 games of misery, Draisaitl is the 2nd-leading scorer in the NHL, and McDavid 19th (with a bunch of other guys tied). Here's how the club's roster scored over this stretch:
14GP:
Draisaitl -- 22 PTS (11G, 11A) -2
McDavid -- 16 PTS (3G, 13A) -13
Bouchard -- 14 PTS (4G, 10A) -4
Hyman -- 8 PTS (5G, 3A) -5
Nugent-Hopkins -- 7 PTS (1G, 6A) -4
Perry -- 5 PTS (5G, 0A) +2
J. Skinner -- 5 PTS (3G, 2A) +2 (NOTE: Only 10GP)
Ekholm -- 5 PTS (1G, 4A) -10 (NOTE: Only 10GP)
Kulak -- 5 PTS (1G, 4A) -7
And here's how the goaltending has shaken down these 14 GP:
Skinner 3-5-1 = .880
Pickard 2-3-0 = .879
Of goalies who've appeared in 5+ games, this ranks Skinner 42nd and Pickard 43rd out of 52 goalies.
I don't know what's more disturbing -- McDavid falling off the cliff offensively and going -13 in 14 games, or Skinner and Pickard both being out-duelled by goalies on teams like San Jose.
________________________
In short, why has this veteran-laden team with (seemingly) a great deal of offensive skill (eight past 30-goal scorers are regularly on the roster, with another, Kane, waiting in the wings) become a team that needs 50+ shots on goal to score?
Why has the PP gotten quite good just as the ES offense has dried up like a bone in the desert? (To put it another way: Why has a 39-year-old on third-line duty become the club's 2nd-best goal scorer?)
Why has S. Skinner seemingly regressed to his worst full season this year (just when he should be starting to peak)?
Whis is McDavid suddenly stuggling to put put up points, and utterly sucking in ES results? (For comparison, from Nov. 9th to Dec. 31st, McDavid put up 44 points in 23 games -- easily 1st in the League in both points and ES points.) Then, this calendar year, he's 11th in points-per-game.
I don't know the answer, but I do know one thing -- over the past two years, Oiler-slumps and extended team struggles have generally occurred when two things coincided: McDavid and Ekholm both struggling.
This makes sense, of course, as McDavid is the top forward and Ekholm the best (or at least more reliable) defenceman, not to mention one of only two D who has been hard to play against. We saw the early stages of 2023-24, when the club was nearly last overall for 15 games, that both McDavid (injured) and Ekholm (hurt, struggling) were playing their respective worst. As a result, the club completely collapsed. Now, I think the same thing is happening again: McDavid has (relatively) gone into the toilet, and Ekholm is injured and tired (thanks 'Four Nations' thingie, for burning out our top-Dman!). Without the two of them anchoring the offense and defence, respectively, this team kind of sucks.
While I'm fairly confident that McDavid will break out of his mini-slump, I'm a little more concerned about Ekholm, as he's soon to be 35 and has been putting up big, hard minutes for a long time. To the club's credit, they did try to shore up the physical end of the defense core at the deadline, so maybe that will (eventually) help.
I still don't know why the team can't score, though. Arvidsson, Nuge, Podkolzin, Henrique. these guys just aren't getting anything done, offensively. (Nuge has 1 more ES point this season than Connor Brown.) I guess I'm okay with Hyman, but obviously a big (if expected) regression. During the past 14 games, the fifth-best PPG player is Jeff Skinner, who is always healthy-scratched.
Discuss.
