Yeah except this board nearly voted him above Nick Suzuki as a prospect and many suggested dangling Nick.
My point is some of the GOATs are not in the top 10-15 rookie seasons. Crosby Ovechkin were seen as Gods for being the first to hit 100 in a long time, but if we look at the reality of the situation scoring was up massively for a single year post-lockout.
Likewise Selanne's rookie season was another anomaly season and Joe freaking Junneau hit 102. He was barely a 50 point player the rest of his career though I'm sure someone would argue injuries.
1981-82 was another anomaly high scoring season where Hawerchuk, Broten and Pederson all had top 10 all time rookie campaigns with Marian Stastney looking just outside. This was the year they re-aligned teams to be in geographically closer divisions, it's likely the reduced travel and shittifying a few divisions made such a boost possible.
Anyway Barzal had a comparable rookie season to Malkin but is a fringe first liner.
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I think you'll find that many of the best players in the league don't feature heavily in this top 50. Top 15 rookie active seasons includes Yannie Gourde and Jeff Skinner. Bunting, Zegras, etc.
I am not saying that a good rookie season is a bad thing. Just saying I wouldn't dump on Slaf for not jumping out of the gate. Kucherov is second in points per game in the last 5-6 years and is 299th on this list with 19 points in his rookie season. Emil Heinemen is one point from beating him; I wouldn't expect a 140+ point season out of Heinemen a few years from now.
Tyler Myers also had a GOAT-level rookie season as a dman and never got better. Phaneuf as well. Obviously Lane is not a physical specimen like them so I don't expect him to not get better.
I think it's for more likely for a good rookie season to indicate future elite status for forwards than dmen as well. Lane's obviously overtaken Makar/Hughes in points but both of them had less games. I think Faber had an even better season comparing roles than Lane last year, and yet he's struggling a lot more in that same role this season.
Notable dmen who didn't have good rookie seasons; Hedmna, Josi, Giordano, Burns (was still playing forward), Keith, Chara. Just going off of Norris winners cause I don't want to get into semantics of what makes a good season for a dman rookie for defensive-first dmen. For example, Weber had a "bad" rookie season but only played 28 games and lost his rookie status. But put up 40 and was immediately a #1 dman and stayed as such for his entire career from his sophomore year on. Three less games played and he's got a GOAT rookie season instead of a mid-bad one.
Notable top scoring current season forwards who didn't; Draisatl, Kucherov, Pastrnak, Hagel, Necas, Reinhart, Nick Suzuki (though we know he worked his way up from the fourth and was passing the eye test), Jason Robertson, Rantanen, Barkov. I'd also point out that guys like Panarin and Kaprizov would have been in this tier too if they came to the NHL at 20/21 instead of 24ish.
Even just double-checking the rookie list except for Ovy, Malkin, and Mario; most big guys do not hit the NHL like a bat out of hell. And I wouldn't say Malkin plays big. Gallagher also had a great rookie season and rarely beat that pace/waterbug level.
Anyways yeah I would not say rookie season is important in the long run when factoring the different ages many guys have been rookies. If Kucherov started at the same age as Panarin he be top 10 all time. Size is also a factor.
Slaf is big and started at 18. Next year is more of the worry year because that's the year (D+4) that a lot of big guys broke out. Brady Tkachuk for example. Byfield's two years older and still not any further ahead of Slaf in development. Tage Thompson broke out in his D+6. Protas is in his D+6. Tuch his D+9. Etc.