Player Discussion Lane Hutson: Part 3 - Calder Edition

Yeah except this board nearly voted him above Nick Suzuki as a prospect and many suggested dangling Nick.


My point is some of the GOATs are not in the top 10-15 rookie seasons. Crosby Ovechkin were seen as Gods for being the first to hit 100 in a long time, but if we look at the reality of the situation scoring was up massively for a single year post-lockout.

Likewise Selanne's rookie season was another anomaly season and Joe freaking Junneau hit 102. He was barely a 50 point player the rest of his career though I'm sure someone would argue injuries.

1981-82 was another anomaly high scoring season where Hawerchuk, Broten and Pederson all had top 10 all time rookie campaigns with Marian Stastney looking just outside. This was the year they re-aligned teams to be in geographically closer divisions, it's likely the reduced travel and shittifying a few divisions made such a boost possible.

Anyway Barzal had a comparable rookie season to Malkin but is a fringe first liner.


I think you'll find that many of the best players in the league don't feature heavily in this top 50. Top 15 rookie active seasons includes Yannie Gourde and Jeff Skinner. Bunting, Zegras, etc.

I am not saying that a good rookie season is a bad thing. Just saying I wouldn't dump on Slaf for not jumping out of the gate. Kucherov is second in points per game in the last 5-6 years and is 299th on this list with 19 points in his rookie season. Emil Heinemen is one point from beating him; I wouldn't expect a 140+ point season out of Heinemen a few years from now.

Tyler Myers also had a GOAT-level rookie season as a dman and never got better. Phaneuf as well. Obviously Lane is not a physical specimen like them so I don't expect him to not get better.

I think it's for more likely for a good rookie season to indicate future elite status for forwards than dmen as well. Lane's obviously overtaken Makar/Hughes in points but both of them had less games. I think Faber had an even better season comparing roles than Lane last year, and yet he's struggling a lot more in that same role this season.

Notable dmen who didn't have good rookie seasons; Hedmna, Josi, Giordano, Burns (was still playing forward), Keith, Chara. Just going off of Norris winners cause I don't want to get into semantics of what makes a good season for a dman rookie for defensive-first dmen. For example, Weber had a "bad" rookie season but only played 28 games and lost his rookie status. But put up 40 and was immediately a #1 dman and stayed as such for his entire career from his sophomore year on. Three less games played and he's got a GOAT rookie season instead of a mid-bad one.

Notable top scoring current season forwards who didn't; Draisatl, Kucherov, Pastrnak, Hagel, Necas, Reinhart, Nick Suzuki (though we know he worked his way up from the fourth and was passing the eye test), Jason Robertson, Rantanen, Barkov. I'd also point out that guys like Panarin and Kaprizov would have been in this tier too if they came to the NHL at 20/21 instead of 24ish.

Even just double-checking the rookie list except for Ovy, Malkin, and Mario; most big guys do not hit the NHL like a bat out of hell. And I wouldn't say Malkin plays big. Gallagher also had a great rookie season and rarely beat that pace/waterbug level.

Anyways yeah I would not say rookie season is important in the long run when factoring the different ages many guys have been rookies. If Kucherov started at the same age as Panarin he be top 10 all time. Size is also a factor.

Slaf is big and started at 18. Next year is more of the worry year because that's the year (D+4) that a lot of big guys broke out. Brady Tkachuk for example. Byfield's two years older and still not any further ahead of Slaf in development. Tage Thompson broke out in his D+6. Protas is in his D+6. Tuch his D+9. Etc.
I mean all of this is cute but I wasnt even talking about historic production when I first made my post. Caufield and Suzuki were mentionned and you mention him as a counter-argument.
 
Celebrini isn't doing anything out of the ordinary, hundreds of rookies have put ut those kinds of numbers. Hutson is re-writing history and making all time top 5 stat lists. Looking at it this way there's no contest.

Hundreds of 18 year old centers have paced for over 70 points ? Just an FYI, despite his injury, he holds the 19th spot for most points by an 18 year old in NHL history. You're completely wrong there.
 
Curious to see if we extend him this offseason. He could very well have a sophomore slump next year (not exactly uncommon even for a superstar), but he can also slowly develop a shot to unlock a new level of offense. Especially with Demidov on the 1st unit PP next year.
 
Curious to see if we extend him this offseason. He could very well have a sophomore slump next year (not exactly uncommon even for a superstar), but he can also slowly develop a shot to unlock a new level of offense. Especially with Demidov on the 1st unit PP next year.
They should do everything to get him signed to 8 years this offseason. If they can get him for 8 x 10m it will be a bargain.
 
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They should do everything to get him signed to 8 years this offseason. If they can get him for 8 x 10m it will be a bargain.
Being a top 5 paid player at his position is most definitely not a bargain. If he really likes it here, he'll probably sign somewhere between 8-9x8. If he wants to get as much as possible, he will sign a bridge deal.
 
Curious to see if we extend him this offseason. He could very well have a sophomore slump next year (not exactly uncommon even for a superstar), but he can also slowly develop a shot to unlock a new level of offense. Especially with Demidov on the 1st unit PP next year.
I would sign him for as long and cheaply as possible right now.
 
Being a top 5 paid player at his position is most definitely not a bargain.
Well, he's already a top 8 defenseman in production as a rookie and does not have a great team around him. Cap is also about to explode. I think in 3 years we look at Hutson getting 10m a year we'll be laughing.
 
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I would sign him for as long and cheaply as possible right now.
Wouldn't be shocked if he signed an 8x8. Like I said, it will depend on how much he likes it here. US players, especially in Canadian markets, have a reputation for signing short term deals to get the most amount of money possible. But of course that wasn't the case with Caufield.
 
Being a top 5 paid player at his position is most definitely not a bargain. If he really likes it here, he'll probably sign somewhere between 8-9x8. If he wants to get as much as possible, he will sign a bridge deal.
I think all would be satisfied with a contract in that range, and Hutson seems to be a team first guy that would go agree to a reasonable deal, but I could see his agent push for a Quinn Hughes type of contract.

6*7.85, ajusted to 104M$ in 2026-2027 (from 81 in 21-22) would be 6*10.
 
Subban's deal today would be worth 12.46M. If Hutson were to sign 8x10 it would be the equivalent of 8x7.22 when Subban signed his. I think that's a bargain for him.
Subban was ready to sign a much more reasonable contract and we bridged him. After that he went for max dollars. He wasn’t a raw rookie with all of his RFA years up front like Hutson is.
 
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Subban was ready to sign a much more reasonable contract and we bridged him. After that he went for max dollars. He wasn’t a raw rookie with all of his RFA years up front like Hutson is.
Yep, so let's not make that mistake again. 10M when his deal kicks in is the equivalent of 8.46 today. He's worth it and only going to get better.
 
Shit, forgot it wouldn't kick in for another year. Subban deal would then be 13.56M, Hutson's would be 6.63M in 2014-15. That's absolutely a bargain lol.
Subban won a Norris and was the best player on a Conference Finalist before signing that contract. It's nowhere near the same thing. Not to mention that Molson had to cave into Subban's demands, which shows how expensive the contract was even expensive at the time, but we had to keep him. We also weren't buying as many RFA years with him.

It's not to say that Hutson won't be better than Subban, but Subban was an established premium dman in the league after several seasons of proving it. Hutson has one season under his belt.
 
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Subban won a Norris and was the best player on a Conference Finalist before signing that contract. It's nowhere near the same thing. Not to mention that Molson had to cave into Subban's demands because the contract, which shows how expensive the contract was even expensive at the time, but we had to keep him. We also weren't buying as many RFA years with him.

It's not to say that Hutson won't be better than Subban, but Subban was an established premium dman in the league after several seasons of proving it. Hutson has one season under his belt.

I think Quinn Hughes' contract is the comparable. He signed a 6 year contract at 9.6% of the cap at its start.
 
Subban won a Norris and was the best player on a Conference Finalist before signing that contract. It's nowhere near the same thing. Not to mention that Molson had to cave into Subban's demands, which shows how expensive the contract was even expensive at the time, but we had to keep him. We also weren't buying as many RFA years with him.

It's not to say that Hutson won't be better than Subban, but Subban was an established premium dman in the league after several seasons of proving it. Hutson has one season under his belt.
With 3 core pieces locked up on pre-salary cap increase contracts, I don't think it's worth trying to nickel-and-dime our best player this year and end up having to dole out a Subban-esque contract later on. Get him signed 8x10 and forget about it for our entire contending window.
 
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With 3 core pieces locked up on pre-salary cap increase contracts, I don't think it's worth trying to nickel-and-dime our best player this year and end up having to dole out a Subban-esque contract later on. Get him signed 8x10 and forget about it for our entire contending window.
Don't think anyone said otherwise. If he's adamant on 8x10 and won't budge whatsoever, then you give it to him, but it's definitely not a bargain like how some believe.
 
Yep, so let's not make that mistake again. 10M when his deal kicks in is the equivalent of 8.46 today. He's worth it and only going to get better.
The cap is changing so I’m not sure what to say here but my gut tells me we can sign him for a fair bit less. I would try to get him at Caufield money. Considering he’s a rookie with lots of RFA years left and the cap is going up that seems like a good balance. But I’d hope we could actually get him for less. It’s going to be interesting to see.

10 mil sounds way too expensive for now. 6 or 7 mil is more where I’d expect him to be.

Edit: 6 is too low. I’d try for 7.5.
 
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The cap is changing so I’m not sure what to say here but my gut tells me we can sign him for a fair bit less. I would try to get him at Caufield money. Considering he’s a rookie with lots of RFA years left and the cap is going up that seems like a good balance. But I’d hope we could actually get him for less. It’s going to be interesting to see.

10 mil sounds way too expensive for now. 6 or 7 mil is more where I’d expect him to be.

Edit: 6 is too low. I’d try for 7.5.
I assume you don't mean on an 8 year deal then
 
The cap is changing so I’m not sure what to say here but my gut tells me we can sign him for a fair bit less. I would try to get him at Caufield money. Considering he’s a rookie with lots of RFA years left and the cap is going up that seems like a good balance. But I’d hope we could actually get him for less. It’s going to be interesting to see.

10 mil sounds way too expensive for now. 6 or 7 mil is more where I’d expect him to be.

Edit: 6 is too low. I’d try for 7.5.
If I'm Hutson and I get offered 7.5 I take that as an insult tbh
 

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