Player Discussion Lane Hutson: Part 3 - Calder Edition

[Sasha Orlov]

He's a pint sized dmanin a league with huge players. No different mugsey bogues in the NBA. Fun, sure.. but not a game changer. Sooner we can move on the better. Exactly why he slipped to #62.

He's anything but a Dman - rather a 4th Forward.


Sell him now, he's at his highest, and will he seeking $9M/yr.

Bro would trade Quinn Hughes for Dylan Cozens

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Piece of the number + signed??

Man the younger me is losing his mind right now lol

Younger me is getting the clothes pegs and attaching those cards to the spokes in my bike.

 

[themilosh]

Bro would trade Quinn Hughes for Dylan Cozens

You think Hutson is QH? Cmon man.

Hutson + MTL 1st 25*
Dickinson + SJ 1st 25*
*MTL gets the higher draft pick btw the two teams after lottery.

 

[Guy Larose]

 

[ReHabs]

Hutson will always have a disability: inability to defend against bigger players. His stock is at an all time high, what better a time to trade him for a legit 2C or 1RHD prospect.

While I like him, hes nothing more than a circus act atm.

His passing vision and technical skills are just too good to dismiss.

He might be a fourth forward like Karlsson or Hughes but at his best he will tilt the ice. It’ll allow the Habs to play off the rush, to make life much harder for the opponents when he’s on the ice. He will be frail defensively but in aggregate he’s a net positive.

Finding a steady partner for him won’t be as hard as finding a QB to replace him. Mike Matheson is not a good partner for him. Reino should be better. Even some stooge like Seth Jones.

 

[themilosh]

His passing vision and technical skills are just too good to dismiss.

He might be a fourth forward like Karlsson or Hughes but at his best he will tilt the ice. It’ll allow the Habs to play off the rush, to make life much harder for the opponents when he’s on the ice. He will be frail defensively but in aggregate he’s a net positive.

Finding a steady partner for him won’t be as hard as finding a QB to replace him. Mike Matheson is not a good partner for him. Reino should be better. Even some stooge like Seth Jones.

His vision is elite no doubt, but are you going to pay him a top salary to basically be a PP1 and sheltered as a 2LD?

What do you think he is worth next contract? What he expects will be a lot more than what he is worth, hiven the circumstances.

 

[WeThreeKings]

His vision is elite no doubt, but are you going to pay him a top salary to basically be a PP1 and sheltered as a 2LD?

What do you think he is worth next contract? What he expects will be a lot more than what he is worth, hiven the circumstances.

He's not even sheltered now, he won't be sheltered in the future.

 

[ReHabs]

His vision is elite no doubt, but are you going to pay him a top salary to basically be a PP1 and sheltered as a 2LD?

What do you think he is worth next contract? What he expects will be a lot more than what he is worth, hiven the circumstances.

I’d want to see more and then make a judgement. He’s the kind of player where his deficiencies are not hidden, so as much as possible I would push back the extension to have as much data as can be gathered.

Data of his performance against size, speed, targeted forechecks, etc.

With that said, his aggregate contribution is undoubtedly positive and PP goals are goals all the same. I think he’s on track to be worth top-pairing money when he’s in his prime even if he’s not a topX dman.

 

[themilosh]

He's not even sheltered now, he won't be sheltered in the future.

Playoffs are a different beast.. if Hutson accepts his role as a contributing defender he should be signing an 8 x $7M.. but his agent is going to push the $10M narrative. Watch.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

I swear people don't watch other teams , you'd think all these other defensemen in the league never get beat with how people talk about Hutson deficiencies as a 20 year old , yet every day there's blowouts in the NHL or like 5-2 games regardless of who is playing.....boneheaded plays and lost coverage left and right every night

Like the overaction on the play where Larkin chipped it to himself and cut to the slot , must be the first time Larkin ever made an offensive play on a NHL dman in his life correct?

As if that was the only time Dylan Larkin, a guy who plays 20 minutes a night against the oppositions best dmen , made a good offensive play in his career because it was on Hutson

 

[Guy Larose]

I swear people don't watch other teams , you'd think all these other defensemen in the league never get beat with how people talk about Hutson deficiencies as a 20 year old , yet every day there's blowouts in the NHL or like 5-2 games regardless of who is playing.....boneheaded plays and lost coverage left and right every night

Like the overaction on the play where Larkin chipped it to himself and cut to the slot , must be the first time Larkin ever made an offensive play on a NHL dman in his life correct?

Watch other teams? At least half don't even watch this team, yet comment like they know what they're talking about.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Watch other teams? At least half don't even watch this team, yet comment like they know what they're talking about.

It's embarrassing , it doesn't take much hockey viewing to understand that forwards have an enormous advantage in this league and there's no Dman on the planet that's shutting down guys consistently without a solid team environment around them.

Is Hutson Makar ? No , but he's not even dogmeat defensively like some people think he is

 

[sampollock]

Cone back and enjoy

 

[WeThreeKings]

Playoffs are a different beast.. if Hutson accepts his role as a contributing defender he should be signing an 8 x $7M.. but his agent is going to push the $10M narrative. Watch.

We will have no issue if Hutson is getting paid 10m, the cap is rising astronomically and that's about what a player of his ilk would be getting paid.

Nor am I concerned about Lane Hutson in the playoffs. I'm more concerned about our inconsistent big bodies in the playoffs than Hutson who brings it every night, even if it's not his best night, his effort and hustle is always there.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Playoffs are a different beast.. if Hutson accepts his role as a contributing defender he should be signing an 8 x $7M.. but his agent is going to push the $10M narrative. Watch.

The players who dominate in the playoffs aren't big bodies. The players who dominate are those with high compete.

 

[themilosh]

We will have no issue if Hutson is getting paid 10m, the cap is rising astronomically and that's about what a player of his ilk would be getting paid.

Nor am I concerned about Lane Hutson in the playoffs. I'm more concerned about our inconsistent big bodies in the playoffs than Hutson who brings it every night, even if it's not his best night, his effort and hustle is always there.

$10M per is a #1 Stud D.. Hutson wont be that (but we need to pay him as such)? Like I said, if he re-ups a similar deal like Slaf I will be fine, if he is looking for $10M I'd rather trade him for a legit 1bC 2aC.

 

[themilosh]

The players who dominate in the playoffs aren't big bodies. The players who dominate are those with high compete.

True. And there is no doubt Laner has compete.. i like the kid, i enjoy his show. But I'm never going to be sold on paying him #1D money. He's not a #1 or #2... straight up, he is an incredible #2LHD, with PP1 duties.. what is that worth? Imo $7M x 8.. anything more than that, and he should be traded.

 

[Michelangelo]

$10M per is a #1 Stud D.. Hutson wont be that (but we need to pay him as such)? Like I said, if he re-ups a similar deal like Slaf I will be fine, if he is looking for $10M I'd rather trade him for a legit 1bC 2aC.

$10M now =/= $10M in the future with the rising salary cap

 

[Skip Bayless]

Sadly, Edmonton will probably f*** everything up with Bouchard's contract and we'll end up paying Hutson 5.8M per or more.

 

[Michelangelo]

Sadly, Edmonton will probably f*** everything up with Bouchard's contract and we'll end up paying Hutson 5.8M per or more.

That sounds good to me, but 5.8M per will definitely be too low

 

[WeThreeKings]

$10M per is a #1 Stud D.. Hutson wont be that (but we need to pay him as such)? Like I said, if he re-ups a similar deal like Slaf I will be fine, if he is looking for $10M I'd rather trade him for a legit 1bC 2aC.

The cap is going to be 104 million compared to 88 million by the time that extension kicks in. It's not the same percentage of the cap, so it'd actually be equivalent to paying him 7million today.

 

[Sam de Mtl]

Watch other teams? At least half don't even watch this team, yet comment like they know what they're talking about.

To be fair, this team doesn't always make it enjoyable to watch.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

The players who dominate in the playoffs aren't big bodies. The players who dominate are those with high compete.

Don’t say that, our roster is doomed

 

[Scriptor]

The cap is going to be 104 million compared to 88 million by the time that extension kicks in. It's not the same percentage of the cap, so it'd actually be equivalent to paying him 7million today.

7M on an 88M Cap VS on a 104M Cap is 8.27M, not 10M.

If GMs have the logic -- and math skills that some display on these boards, that 113.5M Cap in three years will be busted by quite a few of the rich teams.

Even at 113M.5, the 7M payday today would be worth around 9M (9.03M).

If Hutson takes a 10M X 6 years contract, it will be like the Hughes contract as a percentage of the total Cap back then, a Cap ceiling in 2021-2022 that was only 81.5M compared to today's 88M.

To me, that is the absolute worst contract (in terms of Cap hit) that might be signed with Hutson, and that is a little much for me.

Hutson signing to a 9M X 6 (8.93M to be exactcontract would be like signing a 7.05M contract at the time Hughes signed for 7.85M over 6 years.

That, to me, is what Hutson is worth right now, in his rookie season, and should be the maximum he signs for at the end of this season, when the Habs will be allowed to extend him.

If, however, especially if we see the addition of Demidov and -- God forbid Hughes can pull it off -- an actual 60-point 2C, all without touching the present core, Hutson puts up a PPG, then, maybe that 10M becomes the right figure, if not slightly more, all the way uo to, perhaps 11M rumoured for Dobson who is a 50-point D good year, bad year, and already posted 70 points two years ago, I believe.

Thos is why IO think that extending Hutson in the offseason once this season ends is the smart way to go. Sure, we don't have a second year to prove this is regular Hutson production, but, I suspect there is little risk that what we saw this year, barring serious injury, will not be regular Hutson production as a floor.

The ceiling is hard to extrapolate because we don't yet know who the Habs will add in future years and how Demidov, or Reinbacher's (potential future pairing partner for Hutson) skills will translate to the NHL.

 

[Scriptor]

Don’t say that, our roster is doomed

Add high compete to size, if you can get both and you're really in business!

Slaf in the playoffs might turn that compete level up, as he did in International tournament play where the stakes were at their highest for a National star in the making.

I suspect that a player like Demidov, who, if he went on skills alone, would already be a coaster in regular season play (but isn't) would also have an extremely high compete level. Suzuki and Caufield, as much as some like to rag on them, clamouring that they are not elite talent, have already shown a high compete level on the run to the SCFs.

Guhle has a high compete level in regular season play already and I don't imagine that this compete level goes down in the playoffs.

Hutson, just to be in the NHL, needs a high compete level.

Xhekaj has a high compete level and it is more a case of dosing his energies than not, in order to avoid taking too many penalties in his case.

Heoneman, already the best forechecker on the team, has a high compete level.

High compete level once we make the playoffs:

Suzuki, Caufield, Demidov, Heineman, Guhle, Xhekaj.

Hopefuls:

Slafkovsky
Reinbacher
Beck
Hage

Doubtfuls:

Laine
Dach
Newhook

I didn't list many of the bottom-6 contributors that will be in place by the time we make the playoffs, but it stands to reason that a high compete level for these role players will be what makes them get to the NHL over other candidates.

Habs need to purge from the lineup those that won't raise their level of play up a notch, or at least keep it at a regular season high level once we get into the playoffs.

Any additions to the lineup (2C, top-4 RHD) also need to have a high level of engagement come playoff time, not just fancy stats that you pad by facing non playoff teams in the regular season.

By the time we make the playoffs, even if it is next year, players like Laine, Dach and Newhook might not even be here anymore.

I have zero problem with trading those three players for less talented but more engaged ROLE players for the bottom-6. They will not get you better, more talented replacements in the same roles they cannot currently fill with the Habs.