Speculation: Lalonde

[HisNoodliness]

If that's what it looks like, that's a problem with the analysis of the analytics.

Don't get me wrong I want AJ to play but Chiarot in particular has not been terrible. He's also been playing 20 minutes a game with 2 minutes of it on the PK. AJ has played around 12 minutes and only Gustaffson has started more in the offensive zone.

It's not even close to apples to apples.

AJ shouldn't be in place of Chiarot or even Petry as he should Maatta or Holl.

Also Johansson played last game.

I understood why people jumped to Chiarot's defense last year. He was actually pretty good for most of the season. He simplified his game a bit, and then had some standout clutch moments. Plus he handled the second pairing minutes so much better than first.

But this year? Dude is fully back to "I hang my partner out to dry as much as possible" '22-23 Chiarot. He's always chasing the play, and out of position. His best use of possession is to dump it to the other team. His second best is to skate it head first into a turnover. The worst is his passing. Petry will be standing totally open, calling for the puck for five seconds. Chiarot will wait and wait and wait with the puck until a forechecker picks Petry up and then Chiarot will fire a puck right into his feet. Petry fumbles it, and our forwards that have all flown the coop are now too far away to offer Petry any outs (because supporting the D on a breakout is not part of Lalonde's system for some reason).

Honestly, I think Petry has been the better player on their pairing this year. That's a sentence that I thought has been stricken from existence.

 

[19 for president]

I understood why people jumped to Chiarot's defense last year. He was actually pretty good for most of the season. He simplified his game a bit, and then had some standout clutch moments. Plus he handled the second pairing minutes so much better than first.

But this year? Dude is fully back to "I hang my partner out to dry as much as possible" '22-23 Chiarot. He's always chasing the play, and out of position. His best use of possession is to dump it to the other team. His second best is to skate it head first into a turnover. The worst is his passing. Petry will be standing totally open, calling for the puck for five seconds. Chiarot will wait and wait and wait with the puck until a forechecker picks Petry up and then Chiarot will fire a puck right into his feet. Petry fumbles it, and our forwards that have all flown the coop are now too far away to offer Petry any outs (because supporting the D on a breakout is not part of Lalonde's system for some reason).

Honestly, I think Petry has been the better player on their pairing this year. That's a sentence that I thought has been stricken from existence.

This is why pairing Seider with Ed is a poor idea. Neither Chiarot or Petry can anchor a top 4 pair. They might be able to handle top 4 minutes with a superior partner but that is about as good as it gets. At least when you split Ed and Seider you have guys on each pair that could potentially complete a pass, and less puck panic overall.

I am very disappointed in the defense Stevie has put together. Not getting a top 4 dman via trade or FA is going to sink this teams playoff chances. Especially with Lalonde as coach because he also hasn't been able to implement a workable system that helps support our D.

 

[mikerooooose]

The wildly inconsistent play points directly at the coach and staff. Even going back to last year, they can go from looking like the best team in the NHL to the worst so quickly.

 

[RRhoads]

We spend too much time in our own zone, and we actually win the puck often. It is what that comes after that is the problem, the breakout, or lack thereof, and the forwards are a lot to blame for that. They don't move into lanes, and they don't move the puck quickly enough. And when we finslly get the puck out, we are so tired we need a line change, so we kindly give the puck back to the opponent, so they can start over. Chasing the puck in the defensive zone is the most taxing thing you can do.

Whether it is on Lalonde, or the flu, I am not sure, but I am leaning heavily towards Lalonde.

The fact is that we haven't really been better than we were last night in any of the games we have played, maybe only against Edmonton. It is only because of our goalies have been lights out in our wins that we have the record we have.

Fire Lalonde. Get a coach with NHL HC experience. I wouldn't mind McLelland or Gallant.

 

[JediOrderPizza]

They better come out against Buffalo and want revenge.

 

[schuelma24]

He can handwave last night away as playing a top team.

If they lay another stinker at home against the Sabres, I'd imagine that's a different story...

 

[datsyukfan]

It's essentially the same team.

No it’s not, the d-core is significantly worse

 

[HisNoodliness]

This is why pairing Seider with Ed is a poor idea. Neither Chiarot or Petry can anchor a top 4 pair. They might be able to handle top 4 minutes with a superior partner but that is about as good as it gets. At least when you split Ed and Seider you have guys on each pair that could potentially complete a pass, and less puck panic overall.

I am very disappointed in the defense Stevie has put together. Not getting a top 4 dman via trade or FA is going to sink this teams playoff chances. Especially with Lalonde as coach because he also hasn't been able to implement a workable system that helps support our D.

Honestly, I hear you, but the problem is that we have at most one functional pairing no matter how you split it.

Chiarot-Seider
Ed-Petry

Doesn't work because Chiarot can't handle top pairing competition and drags Seider down. Petry and Ed do fine against second pairing competition but it's dumb to prioritize doing well against second pairing players higher than first.

The only way we can split Ed and Seider is if Albert Johansson has an amazing burst of development and turns into the perfect top pairing support defenseman (a la Anton Stralman in that old Tampa Hedman-Stralman pairing). His speed and smarts could be used to facilitate Seider's game. The problem is that he's also a rookie and probably more of a third pairing guy if considered in isolation. It requires the pairing being much more than the sum of its parts and that's a lot to gamble on. That would mean accepting a decent 10+ games of rocky play as they develop chemistry and AlJo learns. And if Johansson doesn't rise to the occasion? You've just wasted your best defenseman/player on a pairing that doesn't work hoping to squeeze water from a stone.

Petry, Chiarot, Holl and Gustafsson pretty much guarantee that our defense will be bad. You can't have 4 bad defenseman in your roster and make three good pairings. I'm trying not to be too frustrated by how predictable this all was.

 

[19 for president]

Honestly, I hear you, but the problem is that we have at most one functional pairing no matter how you split it.

Chiarot-Seider
Ed-Petry

Doesn't work because Chiarot can't handle top pairing competition and drags Seider down. Petry and Ed do fine against second pairing competition but it's dumb to prioritize doing well against second pairing players higher than first.

The only way we can split Ed and Seider is if Albert Johansson has an amazing burst of development and turns into the perfect top pairing support defenseman (a la Anton Stralman in that old Tampa Hedman-Stralman pairing). His speed and smarts could be used to facilitate Seider's game. The problem is that he's also a rookie and probably more of a third pairing guy if considered in isolation. It requires the pairing being much more than the sum of its parts and that's a lot to gamble on. That would mean accepting a decent 10+ games of rocky play as they develop chemistry and AlJo learns. And if Johansson doesn't rise to the occasion? You've just wasted your best defenseman/player on a pairing that doesn't work hoping to squeeze water from a stone.

Petry, Chiarot, Holl and Gustafsson pretty much guarantee that our defense will be bad. You can't have 4 bad defenseman in your roster and make three good pairings. I'm trying not to be too frustrated by how predictable this all was.

I almost think you have to try that Seider/Aljo pair because if you are only getting 25 minutes a night of passable D then you aren't going to win anything. As you noted you might lose 10 games getting him up to speed but do we really have any other choice?

I haven't hated Ed/Petry and or Ed/Holl. They aren't great pairings but passable. If you dump Chia down to 3rd pair and just have him eat PK minutes he is ok.

The current pairings not only kill us defensively for half a game but also offensively. By splitting them up at least you have two pairs with one competent outlet passer.

 

[Euro Twins]

The defense isn't great, I am not going to sit here and pretend it is. But it's also not the worst in the league. Detroit is dead last in shot against that is something that can definitely improve without having to do redo the Blueline.

Our d could be top 15 with a different system. And our offense should be top 10.

Now we're shit at both.

Good job newsey

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

One game does not make or break a player but nothing from last night’s performance indicates that Johansson is ready to play top pairing minutes. He still needs to prove that he’s an actual NHL quality defenseman, and throwing him to the wolves like that does no one any favors imo.

Personally, I fear that Johansson may not beat the Berggren but on Defense allegations, but he deserves an opportunity to grow into his role in this league. I don’t think lining him up for 25 minutes a night against the Matthews and Kucherovs of the league is in anyone’s best interests except maybe our divisional rivals.

 

[LongTimeDRWF]

One game does not make or break a player but nothing from last night’s performance indicates that Johansson is ready to play top pairing minutes. He still needs to prove that he’s an actual NHL quality defenseman, and throwing him to the wolves like that does no one any favors imo.

Personally, I fear that Johansson may not beat the Berggren but on Defense allegations, but he deserves an opportunity to grow into his role in this league. I don’t think lining him up for 25 minutes a night against the Matthews and Kucherovs of the league is in anyone’s best interests except maybe our divisional rivals.

Maybe, but possibly not having to try to match D Pairs as much may help the team overall, right now it seems matchups are too critical for the team success, if they had two more or less equal two top pairs...on the road they don't have last change, so if nothing else, it would be the time to try it for a while.

 

[HisNoodliness]

One game does not make or break a player but nothing from last night’s performance indicates that Johansson is ready to play top pairing minutes. He still needs to prove that he’s an actual NHL quality defenseman, and throwing him to the wolves like that does no one any favors imo.

Personally, I fear that Johansson may not beat the Berggren but on Defense allegations, but he deserves an opportunity to grow into his role in this league. I don’t think lining him up for 25 minutes a night against the Matthews and Kucherovs of the league is in anyone’s best interests except maybe our divisional rivals.

Certainly, it's a bad idea. It has some chance of working out. That's the appeal. There's enough pure random uncertainty there to hope.

Here are the pairings as I see them:

Ed-Seider
Chia-Pet
Whoever

This is probably our best option only because I think it is good for Edvinsson and Seider. You accept that 2/3 of your defense pairings will be utterly useless so that our two cornerstones of the future can learn how to play at the highest level with competent partners.

Chia-Seider
Ed-Petry
Whoever

Chiarot sabotages Seider whom has to play safe babysitter the whole time. Edvinsson and Petry are better, but a similar dynamic forms. Having one competent defenseman out there for 45 minutes every night means that the team as a whole does better, but I don't like how this will impact Seider and Edvinsson. I don't want them to learn losing, risk minimization, safe hockey habits. I don't want their goal to be to lose as slowly as they can and stop their partner from doing damage. I want them to try winning.

AlJo-Seider
Ed-Petry
Chiarot-Holl

Actually could be good if AlJo is way better than we should expect him to be. Since he is a relative unknown and stylistically he plays a game that can complement Seider very well there is this remote chance that they're good together. The obvious problem is that AlJo is more than likely going to be totally in over his head and fail. Then you end up in the same situation as lineup two where you never win the matchup battle and you're just losing slowly with every line.

So with the season likely to be a total wash, would you rather take

option A: good for the development of Seider and Edvinsson, but the team is more or less guaranteed to fail,

option B: worse for Ed and Seider, but will probably be a little better for the team; still doomed to fail,

or option C: could save the season. More than likely ends up as a slight downgrade of B.

 

[TKB]

Honestly, I hear you, but the problem is that we have at most one functional pairing no matter how you split it.

Chiarot-Seider
Ed-Petry

Doesn't work because Chiarot can't handle top pairing competition and drags Seider down. Petry and Ed do fine against second pairing competition but it's dumb to prioritize doing well against second pairing players higher than first.

The only way we can split Ed and Seider is if Albert Johansson has an amazing burst of development and turns into the perfect top pairing support defenseman (a la Anton Stralman in that old Tampa Hedman-Stralman pairing). His speed and smarts could be used to facilitate Seider's game. The problem is that he's also a rookie and probably more of a third pairing guy if considered in isolation. It requires the pairing being much more than the sum of its parts and that's a lot to gamble on. That would mean accepting a decent 10+ games of rocky play as they develop chemistry and AlJo learns. And if Johansson doesn't rise to the occasion? You've just wasted your best defenseman/player on a pairing that doesn't work hoping to squeeze water from a stone.

Petry, Chiarot, Holl and Gustafsson pretty much guarantee that our defense will be bad. You can't have 4 bad defenseman in your roster and make three good pairings. I'm trying not to be too frustrated by how predictable this all was.

At this point we just have to accept that we aren't looking for good pairings, just the ones are the least bad over all (I couldn't find a good antonym for optimal )

You can't just throw AlJo to the wolves, but you got to give him a chance to get up to speed. I would swap him back and forth with Chiarot depending on circumstances:

Chairot (AlJo) - Seider
Ed - Holl
AlJo (Chiarot) - Petry

Swap Holl and Petry if you like but I keep reading how Chiarot and Petry worked well together in the past, maybe if they aren't over slotted it will be better.

Just because AlJo is paired with MO doesn't mean he would also get 26 minutes, more like the 18 in the regular rotation and if he is having a rough night with MO make an in game adjustment.

Again this is not some magic formula, but current recipe is not working.

 

[Oddbob]

Our d could be top 15 with a different system. And our offense should be top 10.

Now we're shit at both.

Good job newsey

No to the top 15 defence. We easily have a bottom 10 defence in the league without even looking up some of the other really bad ones. Our offence also isn't good. Larkin and Raymond are the only legit possible ppg forwards over a full season which with offence up isn't even that good. DeBrincat is a passenger who needs a driver to help him get 55-70 pts and Kane is 35-36, and any offence he brings comes with the caveat that he puts about as much effort in his own end or other areas as Mantha. Tank appears to be done as anything more than occasional scoring based on him basically being invisible at creating anything.

The coach however should still have this team competing much harder and I think the problem is, his game strategy is not a good one. The way we played the 1st period against the Oilers is what we should be doing. Then the 2nd period starts and we stop trying to create offence, which Lalonde doesn't care about. The sit back to defend a lead has always been a crappy strategy. Making the other team play defence is how you help defend a lead, because as everyone knows, it takes way more energy and effort to play defence than to play offence. The defenceman can't all like the crappy chip it out plays that have become commonplace with Lalonde. Seider never did that his rookie season, and Ed also seems like someone who would rather try to make a skill play than chip outs just to relieve pressure.

 

[Chris Langlois]

I am at a point where I want the wings to just get blown out Saturday night so Stevie fires lalonde and makes a change. And if no change, blown out again until a change is made. It's not even exciting watching this team this year. And everything is worse.

 

[jaster]

One game does not make or break a player but nothing from last night’s performance indicates that Johansson is ready to play top pairing minutes. He still needs to prove that he’s an actual NHL quality defenseman, and throwing him to the wolves like that does no one any favors imo.

Personally, I fear that Johansson may not beat the Berggren but on Defense allegations, but he deserves an opportunity to grow into his role in this league. I don’t think lining him up for 25 minutes a night against the Matthews and Kucherovs of the league is in anyone’s best interests except maybe our divisional rivals.

I’m with you, however… AlJo isn’t yet being deployed on special teams. Seider played 17 minutes at even strength last night, AlJo played 14. So I wouldn’t be worried about the minutes too much if you put them together at ES. The matchups though… I agree I don’t want to see AlJo over-extended. Let him continue to acclimate and grow in a smaller role for now.

One day though…. AlJo-Seider

 

[ShanahanMan]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1852029746596430076

 

[lilidk]

Dvorsky is my easy favorite here, followed by Benson.

That was my 2 choices , followed by ASP for #9