More than 50% chance of reaching 800 goals for no major leg injury stamkos....
He still has the lock-out, still has covid short season, still play most of his prime in the low scoring 2009-2017 hockey.
Give him a very nice 25 mores goals in 2014 and an other 40 in 2017, give him a nice 40 others extra goals spread around, that still 670.
And that generous 2x 50 goals seasons in there add around 5 goals per season elsewhere turning 3 others season in 50 goals one, he would have had like 6-7 of them.
A lot, but the next 130 goals getting close to 35 years old (at his current funk it could mean 125 goals past 35) is a lot. Brett Hull scored 25 as a 39 years old, a master at scoring that aged really well, scored 155 of those, not getting his 750 goal mark.
Obviously quite possible for him to do it, quite possible not.