Prospect Info: LAK Draft (2nd, 2020) C Quinton Byfield - Sudbury Wolves, OHL

[bland]

Except, of course one must admit that this factor must be considered, since the last few posts don't seem to include it as a very real possibility: you are likely going to get more value out of a potential two to three more years of prime Stützle before you get to prime Byfield, with no reason to believe that Stützle would fade first.

Stützle is a damn fine player, too. Byfield has to put a lot of work into his game if he is going to become the invaluably rare piece to the franchise that they believe he can be. That is just gonna take time, he is still a kid. We are asking an awful lot of him because we are pretty damn sure he can give it.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Except, of course one must admit that this factor must be considered, since the last few posts don't seem to include it as a very real possibility: you are likely going to get more value out of a potential two to three more years of prime Stützle before you get to prime Byfield, with no reason to believe that Stützle would fade first.

Stützle is a damn fine player, too. Byfield has to put a lot of work into his game if he is going to become the invaluably rare piece to the franchise that they believe he can be. That is just gonna take time, he is still a kid. We are asking an awful lot of him because we are pretty damn sure he can give it.

...why would Stutzle have 2-3 more prime years? Arriving earlier =/= longer prime

Blake Wheeler truly emerged in his mid-20s and he scored 91 points at age 32 and hasn't slowed down

I'm not understanding something here I think. Maybe the description of prime here. I'm imagining a world in which both guys are full speed ahead at maybe 23-24.

 

[Token]

Oy, what a tedious bit of thread drift.

Da Rulez:

BPA - Best Player Available. Direct from the mouth of the Yeti.

Yes, a player being more NHL ready is a consideration that is built into the whole floor-ceiling evaluation of each prospect.

The whole phrase collection of:

“high floor - low ceiling” - say Clifford
“high floor - mid ceiling” - maybe Fagemo
“low floor - high ceiling” - say Madden, maybe

I bet you money Yannetti got Dumbledore-thick tomes and volumes of this stuff on half the draft class.

Many a time has Yeti preached that the art is projecting the kids 3-5 years out. It is known.

Btw, if scouts and GMs were hot on NHL readiness they would be drafting overagers left and right, but they don’t. They do those moves in the 2nd and later rounds like we did with Fagemo.

Chasing unicorns is fun, but end of the day the kids that jump in at 18 and rock the house are rare beasts.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Byfield turned 18 less than five months ago. Anyone recall the last time the Kings had a forward that young in the lineup? Olli Jokinen? And he was 18 turning 19 his draft year, and we saw how ready he was to make an impact. Took him six seasons to finally prove himself (and on his third team).

Even Draisaitl wasn’t ready at 19, then in his second pro season he pops in 50+ points, pots back-to-back seasons of 70+ points at 21-22, them followed it up with 105 and 110 points in his fifth and sixth season.

I think it’s safe to say Buffalo regrets passing on the big, lumbering center over the big time junior scorer who also tore it up at the WJC.

 

[PumperNichol]

Oy, what a tedious bit of thread drift.

Da Rulez:

BPA - Best Player Available. Direct from the mouth of the Yeti.

Yes, a player being more NHL ready is a consideration that is built into the whole floor-ceiling evaluation of each prospect.

The whole phrase collection of:

“high floor - low ceiling” - say Clifford
“high floor - mid ceiling” - maybe Fagemo
“low floor - high ceiling” - say Madden, maybe

I bet you money Yannetti got Dumbledore-thick tomes and volumes of this stuff on half the draft class.

Many a time has Yeti preached that the art is projecting the kids 3-5 years out. It is known.

Btw, if scouts and GMs were hot on NHL readiness they would be drafting overagers left and right, but they don’t. They do those moves in the 2nd and later rounds like we did with Fagemo.

Chasing unicorns is fun, but end of the day the kids that jump in at 18 and rock the house are rare beasts.

See this is the internal debate I had with myself about this. At the draft I was 100% on the Byfield train but I had only seen various clips, read reports and heard all the hype..I had heard all the talk of Stutzle being more NHL ready and at the time I thought, who cares? The Kings are a good 3 seasons away from being competitive again.

But, the thought I now have is this:

When you are drafting #2 the vast majority of the time it's because your team is pathetic and in need of some serious impact players. Most owners are not going to be ok with a team picking in that area for more than 2 to 3 years so it's imperative to get those picks right. You can't have players drop 2 or 3 tiers or it's gonna set your franchise back.

So, if you know you only have a short window to draft studs to rebuild your team do you pick someone who's upside is a one of a kind franchise player and who's floor is a decent 2nd line center? Or do you take the upside franchise player who's floor is decent 1st line player?

NHL ready doesn't just mean the obvious. It also means that there's so much less risk. Stutzle's ceiling might be 9 to a Byfield 9.5 but Stutzle is already an 8 and Byfield a 7. That's a pretty big gamble at #2.

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

See this is the internal debate I had with myself about this. At the draft I was 100% on the Byfield train but I had only seen various clips, read reports and heard all the hype..I had heard all the talk of Stutzle being more NHL ready and at the time I thought, who cares? The Kings are a good 3 seasons away from being competitive again.

But, the thought I now have is this:

When you are drafting #2 the vast majority of the time it's because your team is pathetic and in need of some serious impact players. Most owners are not going to be ok with a team picking in that area for more than 2 to 3 years so it's imperative to get those picks right. You can't have players drop 2 or 3 tiers or it's gonna set your franchise back.

So, if you know you only have a short window to draft studs to rebuild your team do you pick someone who's upside is a one of a kind franchise player and who's floor is a decent 2nd line center? Or do you take the upside franchise player who's floor is decent 1st line player?

NHL ready doesn't just mean the obvious. It also means that there's so much less risk. Stutzle's ceiling might be 9 to a Byfield 9.5 but Stutzle is already an 8 and Byfield a 7. That's a pretty big gamble at #2.

Nobody answered me before, but I'd still like to know who Ottawa was going to pick if they had the #2 pick. Anyone know?

 

[King'sPawn]

Nobody answered me before, but I'd still like to know who Ottawa was going to pick if they had the #2 pick. Anyone know?

Most of the time, teams will say they got exactly the player they wanted. Since Ottawa was expected either to pick first (pre-lottery) where they would be getting Lafreniere or 3rd (post-lottery), it became a moot point.

I would be shocked if anything substantial ever came out.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

See this is the internal debate I had with myself about this. At the draft I was 100% on the Byfield train but I had only seen various clips, read reports and heard all the hype..I had heard all the talk of Stutzle being more NHL ready and at the time I thought, who cares? The Kings are a good 3 seasons away from being competitive again.

But, the thought I now have is this:

When you are drafting #2 the vast majority of the time it's because your team is pathetic and in need of some serious impact players. Most owners are not going to be ok with a team picking in that area for more than 2 to 3 years so it's imperative to get those picks right. You can't have players drop 2 or 3 tiers or it's gonna set your franchise back.

So, if you know you only have a short window to draft studs to rebuild your team do you pick someone who's upside is a one of a kind franchise player and who's floor is a decent 2nd line center? Or do you take the upside franchise player who's floor is decent 1st line player?

NHL ready doesn't just mean the obvious. It also means that there's so much less risk. Stutzle's ceiling might be 9 to a Byfield 9.5 but Stutzle is already an 8 and Byfield a 7. That's a pretty big gamble at #2.

Congratulations, you just drafted Nolan Patrick over Hischier, Heiskanen, Makar, and Pettersson. Ekblad and Rinehart over Draisaitl.

I'm not trying to be insulting, I know it's just a difference in philosophy here. But I think you're oversimplifying "NHL readiness." Sam Bennett was 'low risk.' So was Curtis Lazar. Simply playing in the NHL doesn't tell me much. And there are plenty of high picks that are arguably ruined because they step in to 'save their franchise' as you allude to with the 2-3 year window, or at best have mediocre seasons until they turn 20-21 anyway (I've posted a number of times just how few players crack the NHL at 18-20, and the percentage of those who crack the NHL AND perform to expectations is reserved for the smallest percentage).

Just like with 18 year old Turcotte--COULD he play right now? Indubitably. Is it the best thing for his development? Probably not. In Stutzle's case, he was already playing against men in a men's league--the NHL is a pretty no brainer move for him at least to start with the AHL not going yet. In Byfield's case, he's a big man who still needs to learn how to use his body, think Wheeler, and has much less experience. We need to stop seeing that as 'bad' in and of itself. Yes, potential is just potential until it's fulfilled, and I know with our history of Scott Barneys and Pavel Rosas it's pretty typical to be cynical and think Lucy is pulling the football, but the kid has been an absolutely sublime player at his level for years, his relative struggles are in international tournaments and they're overwrought.

And it's a little bit of my bias talking but I also think people are completely underrating Byfield at this point thanks to the WJC and TS playing in the NHL while byfield can't even get his AHL debut due to the damn Ducks getting Covid

Nobody answered me before, but I'd still like to know who Ottawa was going to pick if they had the #2 pick. Anyone know?

No one seems to know for sure but remember how much their media went out of their way to assign Stutzle to the Kings, all the Ottawa fans prematurely celebrating Byfield, telling us we were dumb because our local media thought otherwise? All signs point to QB.

 

[Token]

See this is the internal debate I had with myself about this. At the draft I was 100% on the Byfield train but I had only seen various clips, read reports and heard all the hype..I had heard all the talk of Stutzle being more NHL ready and at the time I thought, who cares? The Kings are a good 3 seasons away from being competitive again.

But, the thought I now have is this:

When you are drafting #2 the vast majority of the time it's because your team is pathetic and in need of some serious impact players. Most owners are not going to be ok with a team picking in that area for more than 2 to 3 years so it's imperative to get those picks right. You can't have players drop 2 or 3 tiers or it's gonna set your franchise back.

So, if you know you only have a short window to draft studs to rebuild your team do you pick someone who's upside is a one of a kind franchise player and who's floor is a decent 2nd line center? Or do you take the upside franchise player who's floor is decent 1st line player?

NHL ready doesn't just mean the obvious. It also means that there's so much less risk. Stutzle's ceiling might be 9 to a Byfield 9.5 but Stutzle is already an 8 and Byfield a 7. That's a pretty big gamble at #2.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this kind of discussion happened regularly with the draft team over the whole summer.

At the end, Yannetti inferred that it was a coin flip on the scales and they considered two prospects to be equal in terms of value.

Blake made the final call based on how he wants to build the team.

I don’t blame him.

Unlike most fans, I’d rather have a Bergeron or O’Reilly to build with than a Panerin or Marner. But that’s me.

Good angle man.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I wouldn’t be surprised if this kind of discussion happened regularly with the draft team over the whole summer.

At the end, Yannetti inferred that it was a coin flip on the scales and they considered two prospects to be equal in terms of value.

Blake made the final call based on how he wants to build the team.

I don’t blame him.

Unlike most fans, I’d rather have a Bergeron or O’Reilly to build with than a Panerin or Marner. But that’s me.

Good angle man.

Way more concise than me, thank you!

@PumperNichol , read this post, ignore mine

 

[Token]

Way more concise than me, thank you

Yeah, but you used “Indubitably”, and for that good sir, you should get an upgraded color for your light saber

 

[PumperNichol]

Way more concise than me, thank you!

@PumperNichol , read this post, ignore mine

You guys have great insight and that's why I come here. I wasn't advocating anything, I was just posing a question, or thought.

I'm not second guessing or calling out Byfield. I hope the kid isn't the next anyone because that limits his upside. My hope is 10 years from now he's the guy top prospects are now being hyped as the next Byfield.

I've played and worked in hockey for over 30 years but that means nothing when evaluating prospects that I haven't seen in person. Personally, I think they took a risk but, they felt that was their guy and I'm good with that.

 

[Sol]

Is the archetype rare? Or do they get drafted all the time? This is contradictory.

IMO, no they don't. We're not talking about mid to late first rounders and later like Boyle, Nick Bjugstad. We're talking about top-tier enough guys to get drafted in the lottery, guys that are huge physical 5-tool monsters, and honestly, looking back over draft history, none of them are as big as byfield--PLD, the Staals, Matthews, Dach, Draisaitl are all 1-2 inches smaller and 20 lbs lighter at time of draft--and none of them can skate as well. It's that rare to have a guy like this, you may even have to go back to Lindros (obviously QB isn't that guy), Thornton compares a little but QB is a better skater. Edit: i guess at time of draft maybe the Staals are a good comparable as far as size and draft position and some other tools.

So unless you're lumping him in with all those guys, I don't think your point sticks. If you are lumping him in with all those guys, I don't think the premise is accurate. He's not a run of the mill 'big kid with some skill,' players like QB don't get drafted all the time.

ON the other hand, you're not the only one to make this argument, this was one of TG's things, that QB was TOO big to be successful because others couldn't do it, to which I retorted with Wheeler et. al., but still...

Do you not take a guy because it hasn't happened before? This is basically the reverse of the arguments with Rossi--people didn't want to draft him near the top 10 because 5'9" Cs don't exist in the NHL, that the one inch between him and Brayden Point was the dividing line. When really, nearing the draft, it came out that he was 5'9.5 and...Perfetti? Was 5'9.75" and that was the difference between getting drafted in the top 10 or not!

Look, no one is saying it's without risk. He's a rarity. And in your opinion, you don't want to take the chance on that. I get it. But I see it as a shot for a historically unique player and a guy who has a frankly pretty uncapped ceiling.

Tall centers drafted that fail is common. Tall centers that are actually really good are the rare archetype.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

You guys have great insight and that's why I come here. I wasn't advocating anything, I was just posing a question, or thought.

I'm not second guessing or calling out Byfield. I hope the kid isn't the next anyone because that limits his upside. My hope is 10 years from now he's the guy top prospects are now being hyped as the next Byfield.

I've played and worked in hockey for over 30 years but that means nothing when evaluating prospects that I haven't seen in person. Personally, I think they took a risk but, they felt that was their guy and I'm good with that.

No, it was a good thought and example. I definitely wasn't calling you out or anything. I was just stream-of-consciousness expanding. As Token said, we know this is what the Kings org themselves did all summer, and even Yanetti said after so many sessions those guys were neck-and-neck, and that it wasn't a consensus decision. That should tell us message boarders 1. how close it was and 2. we're not crazy to waver a little and 2nd guess ourselves if the guys watching hundreds of hours of footage had to clash swords in similar manner.

Tall centers drafted that fail is common. Tall centers that are actually really good are the rare archetype.

Fair enough. My difference of opinion is, imo, Byfield is in the extremely rare category of 6'4"+ centers with the draft pedigree to be in the lottery rather than mid-to-late 1st projects. It's an extremely rare archetype that doesn't really have much of a sample size and I don't think really compares to the Bjugstads of the world.

 

[KopitarFAN]

I guess he's a bust too, given that every top pick has to come in and walk on water, no injures and no development time allowed.

 

[Statto]

I guess he's a bust too, given that every top pick has to come in and walk on water, no injures and no development time allowed.

He clearly cannot handle a proper men’s league....

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

I guess he's a bust too, given that every top pick has to come in and walk on water, no injures and no development time allowed.

Inflicted by former King, Jake Muzzin.

 

[KINGS17]

Oy, what a tedious bit of thread drift.

Da Rulez:

BPA - Best Player Available. Direct from the mouth of the Yeti.

Yes, a player being more NHL ready is a consideration that is built into the whole floor-ceiling evaluation of each prospect.

The whole phrase collection of:

“high floor - low ceiling” - say Clifford
“high floor - mid ceiling” - maybe Fagemo
“low floor - high ceiling” - say Madden, maybe

I bet you money Yannetti got Dumbledore-thick tomes and volumes of this stuff on half the draft class.

Many a time has Yeti preached that the art is projecting the kids 3-5 years out. It is known.

Btw, if scouts and GMs were hot on NHL readiness they would be drafting overagers left and right, but they don’t. They do those moves in the 2nd and later rounds like we did with Fagemo.

Chasing unicorns is fun, but end of the day the kids that jump in at 18 and rock the house are rare beasts.

No doubt in my mind the Kings took the player with the highest ceiling in Byfield.

It's like taking a swing at a belt-high fast ball. If you pop it up on the infield, at least you got your pitch.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Inflicted by former King, Jake Muzzin.

See, that damn near never happened in the DEL, he'd have four people around him there swinging sticks. Adjustment period for sure. He wasn't even looking, christ, even 14 year old me knew I was getting killed skating through there, wise up.

But I had a good laugh that his was mere days after the leafs whining about their guys getting roughed up in front of the net...

 

[KINGS17]

See, that damn near never happened in the DEL, he'd have four people around him there swinging sticks. Adjustment period for sure. He wasn't even looking, christ, even 14 year old me knew I was getting killed skating through there, wise up.

But I had a good laugh that his was mere days after the leafs whining about their guys getting roughed up in front of the net...

Only a little bit of interference there by Muzzin, but as they say in the NBA, "No harm, no foul."

Welcome to the NHL kid. Uh, you might want to widen your base, get lower, an initiate contact with Muzzin if you want to camp in front of the net.

 

[PumperNichol]

Inflicted by former King, Jake Muzzin.

That is awesome! I love there was no call just like in field of dreams when the rookie has a ball thrown at his head and turns to the ump asking for a warning and the ump says sure kid watch out you don't get killed.

 

[apocalypse]

I just hope QB is not rushed and given plenty of time to mature.

 

[Wisdom]

Byfield will be a huge asset to LA....you heard it here twice

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

Byfield will be a huge asset to LA....you heard it here twice

Can we just lock this thread and re-open it in like 2-3 years? Any speculation before that is just kinda stupid. No offense to the experts who already have the kid figured out...

 

[Peter James Bond II]

I have not heard anything recently regarding the OHL / WHL being cancelled for entirety of the season...and do not hope for that, but it's good for Byfield and Kaliyev to be able
to be with the Reign for now. I think it will be better for their growth and experience to be better prepared to make the Kings next season. They were both ready to move on,
but not quite NHL ready.

I would not mind another top 5 pick this year and get one of the 5 stud defensemen at the top of the draft...and getting: Byfield, Kaliyev, Turcotte, Thomas, Madden, Fagemo, Dudas, Hults,
Moverare, Bjornfot (although I think he'll get a recall) a year in the AHL. Then 21-22, add 2-4 of these to the Kings lineup.