Speculation: LAK 23/24 Bold Predictions

[Statto]

But that's the issue with with it.

"If."

Hope is the strategy. Again.

’If’ underpins every move that is made.

I share your concerns around strategy but a single trade is tactical. So does it fit the strategy (if there is one)? Not sure yet. In a vacuum the trade is fine, even though I hate it (complete juxtaposition) but how it fits into the big picture we can only assess after the fact.

In terms of some of the discussion around where QB and Turcotte fit long term. I’m not too worried about space to move either Byfield or Turcotte into the middle as part of the top 9 (as early as next year) because whilst they won’t trade Kopitar they would be able to move Danault. Kopitar can then assume a lesser role. The arrival of PLD moves Danault down the pecking order, so if they need to move a C it’ll be him that goes.

I dunno, I’m just moving pieces on the chess board to see how it might evolve so that when Kopitar retires our top 3 C’s are PLD, Byfield and Turcotte. Both Byfield and Turcotte will be better through the middle so should ultimately be used there (or moved). Wishful thinking, but we’d probably be retooling again at that point anyway, which would be criminal because a slower rebuild could have given us a 5-7 year window near the top of the West. That looks unlikely now.

On an aside… I definitely think having Clarke or Spence in the AHL is a bad place to be because it hurts the team long term. Whilst we might be a better team this year we are an away off being definite contenders so not having the future of top 4 D in the NHL when both are ready is strategically highly suspect. At this point I think I prefer one of Spence, Roy or Clarke playing 3LD over the other options because they need to be playing.

Slightly OT but that’s my current brain dump.

 

[johnjm22]

 

[Fishhead]

On one hand, I'd like to think this is Rob Blake TM-proofing the matchups by giving him three strong veteran lines

on the other, Kopitar 24 minutes and PLD to wing by game 15

It's much easier on the coach when you don't have a lot of options. TM proofing is a fantastic way of putting it.

Even Sutter would have a difficult time shuffling this roster too much. Of course Lewis would get his top line shot. And my god would he hate Fiala.

 

[bland]

PLD has plateaued since he's been a 60-point forward though. How much better do you expect he'll get, when he was getting favorable offensive deployments already?

Vilardi, recovering from injury, playing a full season, and getting less favorable ice time and talent around him, just started to show what he was capable of.

PLD was where Vilardi is two years ago. And that's what he still is two years later.

Defenders of the trade keep speaking in abstracts as far as how he helps the team up the middle, but fail to give credit to the wing depth the Kings suddenly had. And there's a fair argument that Vilardi alone will outscore PLD, nevermind what Kupari and Iafallo contributed. So, how much better does it make the team?

Would they have all fit in the cap? Well, they would have fit under the cap better than PLD this year. His cap hit is 8.5. Iafallo (4.0) + Vilardi (3.44) + Kupari (1.0) actually is $8.44 million. So, the Kings actually lost cap space! We can't even say we couldn't afford it.

Don't forget to include the cap hits of the two players needed to replace Iafallo and Kupari in the lineup, namely Kaliyev and Lewis. Kaliyev was already on the roster, but the lost roster spot needs to be included.

Loss in overall production at the low, low cost of an additional $1.5 against the cap.

 

[KopitarGOAT420]

New prediction for the thread:

Laferriere takes advantage of this opportunity and fits in amazingly with Fiala and Dubois.

I think he ends up playing well enough in preseason to earn himself a spot on the opening night lineup and gets off to a hot start in the regular season.

Likely slows down a bit in the 2nd half of the season due to the length of the NHL schedule (going from playing 34 NCAA games to 82 NHL games is no joke) but ends up with a point total in the low 50's.

Due to this insane rookie class he isn't a Calder finalist or anything but still has himself a great year.

Edit: Kaliyev ends up in the AHL and is so pissed he absolutely lights it up. At some point he takes his rage out on a puck so egregiously it miraculously goes through the netting and the clip goes viral.

 

[Schrute farms]

Bold prediction:

Kings win the Presidents Trophy with 130 points; DD wins both the Hart & Norris trophies -- getting 100% of the votes from the east coast voters; and then the Kings get swept by the Oilers in the first Round of playoffs.

 

[Fishhead]

Don't forget to include the cap hits of the two players needed to replace Iafallo and Kupari in the lineup, namely Kaliyev and Lewis. Kaliyev was already on the roster, but the lost roster spot needs to be included.

Loss in overall production at the low, low cost of an additional $1.5 against the cap.

It's not a way that I would gauge this trade, but I wouldn't be so sure it's a loss of production. PLD-Kaliyev Lewis could easily outproduce Vilardi-Iafallo-Kupari this season, and If they continue their last year's paces, they most certainly will. The players we received were a half point better in points per 60 production last year when you combine them all. Vilardi will have an increased role, of course. As will Kaliyev. Arty was a better scorer than Gabe last year per 60 minutes and probably has the most room for production growth out of any of them.

I don't think Iafallo is going to produce nearly as much with Lowry and Appleton as he did here, he might see some PP time on unit 2 though. Being Iafallo he'll soldier on and help them win, but he's not going to get the same looks he did in LA. He's been a bit unlucky with injuries, hope he shakes that this year. Kupari would really have to do something extraordinary from the 4th line to have any significant impact on their production.

 

[Fishhead]

Wait... Boston? That has to be a joke. They could easily miss the playoffs this year.

That's a weird algorithm there. Are the Kings really worse than the Wild, Rangers, Calgary, and Florida? I guess it heavily weighs goaltending, that's the only explanation.

The thing is, having a great goalie hasn't really meant much lately. Having a hot one is what counts.

I think they underrate Buffalo a bit. I don't think Vancouver is anywhere near where they have them either.

Edit: Oh hell, it's Dom

 

[Vamos Rafa]

Still no Pacific Division title.

 

[Brownie to Pancakes]

My bold prediction is moore earns his contract this year

 

[johnjm22]

Wait... Boston? That has to be a joke. They could easily miss the playoffs this year.

That's a weird algorithm there. Are the Kings really worse than the Wild, Rangers, Calgary, and Florida? I guess it heavily weighs goaltending, that's the only explanation.

The thing is, having a great goalie hasn't really meant much lately. Having a hot one is what counts.

I think they underrate Buffalo a bit. I don't think Vancouver is anywhere near where they have them either.

Edit: Oh hell, it's Dom

Iafallo and Vilardi both had some very good analytics. PLD did not.

And the model probably heavily weights goaltending.

I assume that's why the Kings are projected so low. No idea why Boston is so high. Who's their 1st line center?

 

[kingsboy11]

Wait... Boston? That has to be a joke. They could easily miss the playoffs this year.

That's a weird algorithm there. Are the Kings really worse than the Wild, Rangers, Calgary, and Florida? I guess it heavily weighs goaltending, that's the only explanation.

The thing is, having a great goalie hasn't really meant much lately. Having a hot one is what counts.

I think they underrate Buffalo a bit. I don't think Vancouver is anywhere near where they have them either.

Edit: Oh hell, it's Dom

What's funny is that they even admit when talking about the Kings that they have outperformed whatever their model is the past 2 seasons. I haven't looked at what its predicted for other teams and how accurate its been, but for whatever reason their model hates the Kings. Anytime I see an Athletic article from Dom about projections or analytics I just skim past it because their analytics just never favors us even if the team is playing well.

 

[BaileyFan]

Wait... Boston? That has to be a joke. They could easily miss the playoffs this year.

That's a weird algorithm there. Are the Kings really worse than the Wild, Rangers, Calgary, and Florida? I guess it heavily weighs goaltending, that's the only explanation.

The thing is, having a great goalie hasn't really meant much lately. Having a hot one is what counts.

I think they underrate Buffalo a bit. I don't think Vancouver is anywhere near where they have them either.

Edit: Oh hell, it's Dom

Their model buys heavily into the idea that the NHL is a star-driven league. They have McDavid's true market value at over $20M.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I mean Dom's model had him with Muzzin as the Kings' 'real' allstar dman and that Doughty wasn't even in his top 15 back when he was gaining some notoriety because the EK stans latched onto that for all eternity and he carried that grudge until maybe last year

so take it with an asteroid of salt

 

[kilowatt]

I care so very little about Dom’s model

 

[SaltyElkHunter]

Not a very bold prediction, but I'll say Fiala leads the team in scoring.

Vilardi will outscore PLD.

Kaliyev hits 30 goals, because why not?

Clarke is second among Kings defensemen in scoring.

You may hit two of these!

Kings stumble out of the gate and are near the bottom of the Pacific after 25 games

McLellan fired, Sturm takes over

Byfield 70 points

PLD 75 points

Fiala 100 points

Doughty top 5 in Norris voting

no goalie posts over a .905 here, Things get a little out of hand, Blake trades several 1sts and good prospects for Saros or Hellebuyck

Turcotte forces his way in by midseason, Thomas soon to follow, after above trade

Remember when you had high hopes

 

[King'sPawn]

You may hit two of these!

2? Psh, Kaliyev will get 24 goals the second half of the season

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

2? Psh, Kaliyev will get 24 goals the second half of the season

Very true, you never specified what team he would be playing for when he got those 30 goals

 

[Brownie to Pancakes]

My bold prediction is moore earns his contract this year

Gottem

 

[FrozenKing18]

Gottem

The Legend of the Thousand Oaks Sniper

 

[kingsholygrail]

Kings are out by January.

 

[johnjm22]

PLD will have a career year.

Neither Copely nor Talbot will be starting game 1 of the playoffs.

If they stay relatively healthy, the Kings will have one of the best regular seasons in franchise history.

Damn.

Is there a way I can hide this post from Sol?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Damn.

Is there a way I can hide this post from Sol?

a career worst year is technically a career year

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Vilardi outproduces PLD on his own.

PLD very quickly becomes one of the most hated players on the team.

There we go.

 

[Surf Nutz]

Just a reminder here about how accurate, the comments on this board are.

Much worse than the Kings record the last three years.

Ok,, permission to feel good , over the marine layer here that never quite burns off.

Winning a round would be a Santa Ana wind blowing the clouds and these posters out to sea.