- Apr 27, 2005
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Really doubtful. He needs 74 points before January 4th, 2019 (approx. 70-80 games minus playoffs). He would need either a long, productive playoff run this year or a significant increase in production.
I'm hoping for the latter
Yea he's a long shot but he's got a chance. If he can finish the season strong and get to 60 points (34p in his last 41 games) he'd need another 40 combined from the playoffs and the first half of next year. Let's optimistically assume he gets 5 playoff points in 7 games. That means he'd need to pot approximately 35p in his first ~40 or so games next season. That totals to 74p in 88gp, or a 68 point pace.
I'd say it's pretty unlikely but not something I'd bet the farm against. It would require a decent improvement over his current pace + a hot streak or two, but I don't think a 60-70 point pace would be out of the question as a 19 year old. The biggest question mark is whether or not he'll be able to stay healthy. I bet he'll fall short by about 10-15 points or so.