Speculation: LA Kings Offseason Thread

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Master Yoda

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Aug 6, 2003
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But FA's don't go to Dallas, Florida, or Nashville either. Tampa I don't recall getting any FA's either, and Vegas is too new to really have a history there.

Your first couple of sentences are my point. Taxes play A role, but they're going to be far from the main thing. If Gavrikov decides he's rather play in Arizona because they're offering him $6 million a year and the Kings are only offering him $5.5...well later.

He just doesn't have a lot of options that fit the low taxes, lotta cap space, competitive box. It's the old analogy of only being able to pick two of three. Since one has to be cap space, you're left with competitive versus low taxes.
It's hard to quanity the effect on ufa signings because most teams overpay for them anyways. And even the inhouse free agents are difficult to analyze because some players take less than market value to stay, at least its perceived that way.

But I'm sure tax/cost of living are major factors, among others, in players making decisions before signing a long term contract.
 

Bandit

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Jul 23, 2005
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In his exit interview, Doughty mentioned that Gavrikov's decision will come down to taxes. If that is correct, we can kiss Vlad goodbye. Like the California middle class, myself included, it's just not worth staying in the state if you have to pay the punitive taxes. Look at it this way, to match a $5mm a year offer from Nashville (no state income tax), the Kings would have to ante up $5.8mm. Yes, this isn't completely accurate given that state taxes a prorated based on what percentage of the games are played where, but it does drive home the point. A dollar earned here is worth far less than a dollar earned in Florida or Texas. If you don't believe me, look how many players put the Canadian teams on their no-trade lists. Thanks Gavin, we love you /sarcasm off.
Give me a break dude. I thought you were an accountant?

My last full year in California I owed the state 12 and the feds FIFTY EIGHT. Tell me again how California taxes are the problem?
 

Schmooley

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Apr 5, 2016
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I was trying to embed an article earlier about value of $100k in major cities but couldn't. I'll just post a link.

What $100,000 Is Actually Worth in the Largest U.S. Cities - 2023 Study - SmartAsset

NY is most expensive and LA is 5th most expensive. And Miami is about 20th. But even with high property taxes, it's still far more financially desirable to live in those other cities.
That article has cities in Tennessee Oklahoma and Texas (but not Dallas) as the best places. There is no hockey in those places. Its largely irrelevant.
 

Schmooley

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Apr 5, 2016
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If you go down further it has a chart of the top 74 cities of Where $100,000 Goes Furthest. Memphis is #1 and New York is #74.
Also you have to factor in teams in a lot of those places dont have cap at the moment. Tampa isnt backing up the brinks truck for Gavrikov. Neither is Dallas.
Danault chose LA over Vegas. A lot of things factor into these decisions for players besides taxes.
 
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deaderhead28

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It matters where you live.

Screenshot_20230504_192013_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
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Master Yoda

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Also you have to factor in teams in a lot of those places dont have cap at the moment. Tampa isnt backing up the brinks truck for Gavrikov. Neither is Dallas.
Danault chose LA over Vegas. A lot of things factor into these decisions for players besides taxes.
Right. Absolutely a lot of things factor in. And certainly taxes and cost of living will be among the major factors that most if not all the players will consider.
 

Schmooley

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Apr 5, 2016
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Right. Absolutely a lot of things factor in. And certainly taxes and cost of living will be among the major factors that most if not all the players will consider.
Look at the graph posted above. Only a couple places even have teams in the top half. One of those is Arizona where no one wants to play.
The place at the very bottom in last place is New York who is getting star players for free cause everyone wants to play there.
 

deaderhead28

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Jul 3, 2010
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Look at the graph posted above. Only a couple places even have teams in the top half. One of those is Arizona where no one wants to play.
The place at the very bottom in last place is New York who is getting star players for free cause everyone wants to play there.
Rangers are a original 6 team so they do get a little more consideration than say Winnipeg.
 

tomd

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Apr 23, 2003
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The biggest issue (IMO) with Gavrikov resigning is the cap situation. He (rightly) will not take a home town discount for a team he spent 2 months with so LA is going to have to pony up market value. And as someone else mentioned, market value for him is likely $5.5-6.5 million x 6-7 years. Going to be tough for Blake to move the salaries needed to sign him and the others that need new contracts.
 

Piston

Fire Luc and Blake
Jun 14, 2006
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Give me a break dude. I thought you were an accountant?

My last full year in California I owed the state 12 and the feds FIFTY EIGHT. Tell me again how California taxes are the problem?

Congrats on 1) leaving CA and 2) earning such a large income. My compliments, and I'm not an accountant but well versed in finance.

If you lived in Tennessee, your Federal taxes would be little higher as you would lose your state deduction, but you wouldn't have state taxes. Overall, your tax bill would be lower if you had not been in CA. The more money you make, the more you save being in a $0 Income tax state.
 

Master Yoda

LA Legends
Aug 6, 2003
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Look at the graph posted above. Only a couple places even have teams in the top half. One of those is Arizona where no one wants to play.
The place at the very bottom in last place is New York who is getting star players for free cause everyone wants to play there.
It doesn't matter that some states dont have teams. It's all relative. If they're comparing LA (california) to Dallas(texas) or Tampa(florida).

And i already argued in another post that there are a few desirable teams that players want to go in spite of high taxes like the Rangers. And obviously nobody really wants to go to Arizona because its a terrible organization.
 

johnjm22

Pseudo Intellectual
Aug 2, 2005
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The contract year thing rarely happens. He may well have peaked because of his age but that’s different. It’s like Kempe, plenty was made about his contract year performance and he blew up that theory. Guys often sign a big contract around their peak years so sometimes numbers may drop but that is where GM’s need to properly assess what the performance window is for each player. Very few players will stop trying because they got a good deal, apart from being professional, a buy out means they don’t get all of it.
Kempe didn't blow any theory up. He's one player.

High scoring players do see bumps in production during contract years on average. Although many maintain decent production the following year, the problem is they're usually older like you mentioned, so they're probably not going to maintain that bump years down the road.

Defensemen are difficult to analyze though because what they do is less quantifiable.

It's not about a guy "not trying," it's a combination of human nature and age. Doesn't mean it happens EVERY time.

As for Gavrikov, I thought he has played at an extremely high level. Him and Roy paired together was literally one of the best lines in the entire league. Hard to imagine he could maintain that level.
 

Nasti

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Jan 30, 2006
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Just to add to the FA destination conversation, one thing going for the big cities like LA and NY is the endorsement deals for the big stars. That more than makes up for cost of living or taxes. Unfortunately, I don’t see Nike or McDonalds offering Gavrikov any deals. Maybe Verizon?
 
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Statto

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Kempe didn't blow any theory up. He's one player.

High scoring players do see bumps in production during contract years on average. Although many maintain decent production the following year, the problem is they're usually older like you mentioned, so they're probably not going to maintain that bump years down the road.

Defensemen are difficult to analyze though because what they do is less quantifiable.

It's not about a guy "not trying," it's a combination of human nature and age. Doesn't mean it happens EVERY time.

As for Gavrikov, I thought he has played at an extremely high level. Him and Roy paired together was literally one of the best lines in the entire league. Hard to imagine he could maintain that level.
I meant the theory some had about Kempe specifically, I wasn’t clear enough. .

It’s the notion that a player has a good year because it’s a contract year I disagree with. The timings of deals matter but most players give it all, each and every season. I’m sure there is the odd example but the fact there are so few examples makes the point. My take is that it’s very much the exception, not the rule.

I think Gavrikov would be great value for 3-4 years and as the cap goes up as his play drops he should be reasonably paid if his deal is around 6M. His style ages relatively well in general but everyone is different.
 

Bandit

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Jul 23, 2005
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Unemployed in Greenland
Congrats on 1) leaving CA and 2) earning such a large income. My compliments, and I'm not an accountant but well versed in finance.

If you lived in Tennessee, your Federal taxes would be little higher as you would lose your state deduction, but you wouldn't have state taxes. Overall, your tax bill would be lower if you had not been in CA. The more money you make, the more you save being in a $0 Income tax state.
No need to congratulate me on leaving California. I'm not a wingnut and would have gladly stayed if family reasons didn't dictate otherwise.

And yes of course if you're paying two parties instead of one you're going to pay more, but citing state taxes as a problem while completely ignoring the fed is like being mad at your neighbor for getting 2 cents of your dollar while the billionaire across town is getting 60. It's misplaced.
 

Ziggy Stardust

Master Debater
Jul 25, 2002
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We are approaching a decade since the Kings last won a playoff round. Welcome back to the Serious Hockey era of the Kings, except without any of the toughness.
 
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bland

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Jul 1, 2004
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But wouldn't you want a subdued voice anyway?

Let's say you get rid of Kopitar and bring in, say, Tkachuk. More intense and vocal. Asshole. Mean.

Then you have a one-sided locker room again and need to bring in other voices to bring balance.

It sounds more like you want to make a change to make a change, despite it conflicting with your statement of different temperments necessary.

The Kings won with Brown and Kopitar as leaders before. I think it's absurd to argue that their removal is necessary in order for the team to be competitive.
Lets be really honest here.

The Kings didn't win with Brown and Kopitar as leaders, they won by adding in a real leadership core to those two.

Neither Brown or Kopitar had/have ever won a playoff series without all of the outside hires earmarked for their leadership abilities - all of whom won plenty without Anze and Dustin. The Cup Core were allowed to be just who they were in that brief era while the outside hires carried the heaviest burden. Every other opportunity has ended in failure without them. Obviously there is a LOT more to it than that, but the lack of leadership and accountability preceding and following those glorious three years has been staggering. Being a respected role model is a different animal from being a galvanizing, proactive agent. Doesn't mean they are "bad" people, but that also doesn't mean that "bad" people can't be good leaders.

And it isn't a conflicting statement at all, just one made in the brief time I had available.

Ideally you want multiple types of voices saying the same things. The Kings do not have that here ' its a glass ceiling hierarchy calling the shots while the kids coming up who need to stretch their wings who are placed into situations that do not allow them to take ownership of the team. Its a one voice system here that does not allow for growth, just following the line dictated by those with the retirement contracts.

They do not have the cap to add established leadership. It is going to need to come from within, and I don't think I am alone in stating that there is a pretty obvious pecking order. Danault is probably the best example here. Pretty much carried Montreal's baggage on his own in the Covid Cup year, but has fallen into that muted, passionless tone established here over the last decade. He plays with that heart on his sleeve, but the very next shift from every other line falls right back into that heavily controlled, dialed down style of play that negates the advantages gained by his line. Every time, all the time.

It baffles me why you can be so logical about virtually everything else, then eschew any critical thinking about Kopitar. He is a problematic focal point that would be an outstanding lieutenant in someone else's brigade. But as the leader? No, thanks, it does not work.
 
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BringTheReign

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Jul 3, 2008
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LA is never on no-trade lists whereas Anaheim is—remind me again if our taxes our different than theirs? The South Bay pro athlete lifestyle is one of the best in the world. You don’t hear about the Lakers, Dodgers, etc having this issue, and I think Blake’s contract signing history is actually quite strong from a value perspective. High profile free agents passing us up have gone to other high tax states (B. Richards to NY, Chara to Boston, Kovalchuk to NJ). This argument is a nothing burger for us even if it is real for teams like Toronto. LA is an outstanding place to live when you’re making millions even if your dollar doesn’t go as far as it might be elsewhere.
 
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Little Psycho

I solemnly swear I'm up to no good
Feb 4, 2007
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I don't mean to suggest taxes are the only factor, but clearly Gavrikov must have said something to Doughty who wants Gav back badly. The person who just set the all time points record in that other league is already a billionaire and came here to be near all the private equity firms.
When we get more insider info from Doughty instead of our insiders. Checks out lol. Wished someone asked him about the injuries during the playoffs.
 
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