Speculation: LA Kings Offseason Thread

[Nasti]

It doesn't matter the draft position, players who struggle this badly through 3 seasons very rarely develop into star players, it doesn't matter where they are taken. Heck, even Vilardi despite missing most of the previous two seasons produced more goals in 10 games in his age 20 season than QB had in 53 games.

And you are saying to disregard draft position, yet the only reason people are clinging to him still being a star is because of draft position. Do you think if QB had been taken #30 like Kempe that people would be projecting him as a star based on how he has played at the NHL and AHL level? No, he'd be seen as a big kid who maybe could end up a 2nd liner. But since he went 2OA in a draft three years ago, people are ignoring the three years of results and still holding out hope he will be the Kings franchise player. Of course draft position changes peoples feelings on a player, had Alex Turcotte been a 2nd round pick he would have been thought of similarly to how JAD was, nobody would have insisted that he still had star potential with how he played his age 18 season at UW and his age 19 season in the AHL, he would have been seen as a potential 3rd line guy with a nice motor and compete level. But due to draft position you had many insisting that there was bigtime offensive upside, despite overwhelming statistical evidence that there wasn't.

And draft position also matters because it's the only reason he had the leash he had this season. Do you think of QB was anything other than a Top 5 pick that he would have spent the majority of the year on the Kings 1st line with Kopitar and Kempe? Obviously the Kings know the importance of this pick and doing everything they can to maximize it and making sure it works. Kaliyev was more impactful offensively but was not given that role, don't think for a minute that draft position didn't have almost everything to do with it.

Are you just of the opinion that there is going to be this huge 180 that is going to hit and QB is going to go from an offensive black hole to a face of the franchise type #1 center? I mean we saw right away with Doughty and Kopitar, do you think it's even close? I just have a hard time seeing anything that makes me think he will be even remotely close to the level of Kopitar.

I just think writing him off right now is premature. Yes, his draft position is the reason he’s getting chances on the top line but you and others are also being very bIack and white about him being a bust vs success for the same reason. I do see your side of it. But I also see that he’s only 20 and still filling into his huge body. I also see a kid who DID make some strides this year, even if they weren’t as big as we all wanted. There were glimpses of what he could become. He’s had some bad luck along the way, not unlike Vilardi. I’m very curious to see how he does in training camp and actually starting off a season without an injury or illness. If he’s stagnant or even regresses next year, then I’ll worry.

I‘ll also add that while he got torched my McDavid and Draisaitl in the playoffs (kind of unfair to hold that against him), he did score 4 points in 6 playoff games. That’s at least some sort of positive to counter this “offensive black hole” talk we keep getting.

 

[Herby]

You are getting offensive black hole because the kid scored 4 goals in 70 games, most of which were spent on the teams 1st line.

And you can think people are writing him off to early, that is fine. I don’t agree with Sol and others that he is a bust, he looks more like a 2nd liner. But the people still thinking he is going to be the face of the franchise 1C are being just as unrealistic as those saying he’s a bust, and to be honest probably way more unrealistic.

Sometimes Top 5 picks bust and sometimes Top 5 picks are stars. If you look at the ones who busted and the ones who became stars, QB has a hell of a lot more in common through 3 seasons with the busts than the stars. Fair statement?

 

[Nasti]

You are getting offensive black hole because the kid scored 4 goals in 70 games, most of which were spent on the teams 1st line.

And you can think people are writing him off to early, that is fine. I don’t agree with Sol and others that he is a bust, he looks more like a 2nd liner. But the people still thinking he is going to be the face of the franchise 1C are being just as unrealistic as those saying he’s a bust, and to be honest probably way more unrealistic.

Sometimes Top 5 picks bust and sometimes Top 5 picks are stars. If you look at the ones who busted and the ones who became stars, QB has a hell of a lot more in common through 3 seasons with the busts than the stars. Fair statement?

Too much focus on his goal scoring even though he’s clearly showing a knack for playmaking. If he tops out at 10 goals and 70 assists, I’m ok with that, especially if he brings some intangibles along the way.

 

[Herby]

Too much focus on his goal scoring even though he’s clearly showing a knack for playmaking. If he tops out at 10 goals and 70 assists, I’m ok with that, especially if he brings some intangibles along the way.

Quinton Byfield had 10 primary assists and 22 assists total, in 60 games. He had 1 multi-assist game all year.

Four players in the entire NHL had 70 or more assists.

McDavid, Kucherov, Draisaitl and Karlsson

You believe he is that caliber of a playmaker?

 

[Nasti]

Quinton Byfield had 10 primary assists and 22 assists total, in 60 games. He had 1 multi-assist game all year.

Four players in the entire NHL had 70 or more assists.

McDavid, Kucherov, Draisaitl and Karlsson

You believe he is that caliber of a playmaker?

I’m just giving you a random number to illustrate that his goal totals don’t mean much to me if he becomes a great playmaker. And yeah, he showed flashes this year of being an elite one. I even made a joke a couple months ago about how Kopitar spent all these years playing with guys who couldn’t finish his setups, and now he’s doing the same thing to Byfield.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Yeah was gonna say reminds me of a Kopitar discussion a few years back where the conversation went something like "a guy who contributes 82 assists but 0 goals is a piece of shit"

paraphrased but not by much

production is production, if your top players suddently turn into over PPG machines because of a guy's presence, that guy is more valuable than you want to admit.

Now he needs to learn to produce on his own without training wheels

and yes he got his teeth absolutely kicked in by the two best players in the world in their absolute primes and he will be a better player for it

 

[BigKing]

Sometimes players are of a similar ilk even if one is in a different class than the other.

I think both players are similar "types."

I do have similar concerns about Gabe's ability to play more minutes though.

5-on-5 P/60 this year:

Vilardi: 2.28
Draisaitl: 2.41

So it's not like there's a chasm of difference there.

Draisaitl, like most elite players, FEASTS on the PP. Gabe doesn't (at least not yet).

IMO Vilardi's ultimate upside is more than a point-per-game player. So I don't think "Drai Jr." when talking about his ultimate upside is too outlandish.

Fair enough. I just think Vilardi's 5-on-5 P/60 would drop further if he played more minutes as he just will never be "fit" enough to handle heavy deployment. That ultimately caps his potential.

He has been the Kings most skilled prospect since the time he was drafted and that never changed after any draft pick that followed. Great to see him have a relatively healthy season where we were finally able to witness that skill on a regular basis.

 

[Herby]

Fair enough. I just think Vilardi's 5-on-5 P/60 would drop further if he played more minutes as he just will never be "fit" enough to handle heavy deployment. That ultimately caps his potential.

He has been the Kings most skilled prospect since the time he was drafted and that never changed after any draft pick that followed. Great to see him have a relatively healthy season where we were finally able to witness that skill on a regular basis.

Vilardi is in the perfect spot now.

If your top line is going to be your best offensive players and your next line is going to be your stopper line (while chipping in some offense) the modern 3rd line is exactly what the Kings had this season. A 3rd line that feasted on matchups where they were just better.

The area of concern for the Kings is as Kopitar ages and gets less effective we will eventually see teams adjusting and sending out their top checkers vs Fiala and Vilardi as they will be seen as the bigger threats 5 on 5. Kopitar continues to defy Father Time and hopefully he can do it again next season, but eventually he will slow down.

 

[BigKing]

Vilardi is in the perfect spot now.

If your top line is going to be your best offensive players and your next line is going to be your stopper line (while chipping in some offense) the modern 3rd line is exactly what the Kings had this season. A 3rd line that feasted on matchups where they were just better.

The area of concern for the Kings is as Kopitar ages and gets less effective we will eventually see teams adjusting and sending out their top checkers vs Fiala and Vilardi as they will be seen as the bigger threats 5 on 5. Kopitar continues to defy Father Time and hopefully he can do it again next season, but eventually he will slow down.

I likened him a while back to Mats Sundin who just kept chugging along right until the end.

Sundin played 18 seasons. Kopitar is now at 17. Same amount of playoff games played.

Sundin crushed it in season 17 at over a PPG but then went to Vancouver, declined but roared back for a killer playoff performance. Remember that he held out until December and didn't play until January so it makes sense that he wouldn't tear up the regular season on a new team. Then he retired.

Sundin played in a much different era and under way more stress playing in Toronto for so long. Kopitar lives at the beach and has zero media and fan pressure in comparison. He's only scored more points than this season four times in his career.

He has lost a step on the defensive side of things but the game is more offensive now and he's still super smart. Barring injury *knock on wood*, I think he can be a valuable player until age 40 at least.

What will be interesting is this next contract. Does he start doing the Joe Thornton one-year special? Does he leave money on the table so the Kings can spend cap elsewhere to make the team better?

 

[SaltyElkHunter]

I think the biggest problem is Byfield has the ho key sense of an Olympic shot-putter.

 

[MrGuyPerson]

I personally would consider Ovie to be a generational talent as well.

I also would absolutely consider Ovie generational. Ovie is 74 goals behind Gretzky for the NHLs all time leader and he has played 140 fewer games. Add in that Ovie didn't play in the NHL in his draft year because of a lockout(52 goals in 05-06, his delayed 1st season), he only played 48 games in the 12-13 lockout season, and finally the 45 game covid season. It is entirely possible Ovie is already the NHLs all time leading goal scorer if he was able to play these lost games.

Lidstrom-Hasek-Jagr were the 3 best of the era between Lemieux and Crosby/Ovy but I just don’t know if any of those 5 should be considered in the same group as Gretzky, Orr, Lemieux and McDavid as truly “generational” players.

I am not sure if you are suggesting Crosby was not generational. If you are not my apologies for the following long response.

Crosby is 100% generational in my book. He(and Malkin) carried that organization to back to back cups in his 3rd and 4th seasons. And they won 1. Then later down the road he(and Malkin) carried that organization to and won back to back cups.

While I do think McDavid has more tangible talent than Prime Crosby did, I do not think McDavid elevates his teammates play remotely close to how Prime Crosby took the penguins to different level.

McDavid(and Drai) have carried the oilers to a grand total of nothing and some shiny selfish hardware(not saying McDavid is selfish just that all they have to show for his generational talent is his individual accolades). In Mcdavid's earlier years you could point to team depth, defense, and goal tending. Now though? Goal tending I guess? There is not much to point at anymore for the oilers. I don't think Crosby ever had as deep of a roster as the current oilers team right now and....I expect nothing. Sure, Kessel made the Penguins better, Letang was a stud. But, didn't Letang actually miss one of those cup runs? The penguins had little depth. They didn't need it.

To me the largest difference between Crosby and McDavid is When 87 was on the ice all your bottom 6 forwards looked like top 6 guys. When 97 is on the ice bottom 6 guys look like bottom 6 guys that impede his success. Crosby only cracked 40 goals once, but it didn't matter. He didn't have to score a ton of goals for the penguins to score and win. Crosby created goals, for everyone on his team, so the penguins would score and win. Despite Ovie scoring 50 every other year Crosby was still considered the best player in his era. Meanwhile, if McDavid isn't scoring the oilers have to send in Drai to rescue him. McDavid's has other worldly skill, but he doesn't elevate the play of his teammates to anywhere near to the same degree.

Ultimately, if McDavid is generational(he is), Sid the no longer kid definitely was.

 

[bland]

I likened him a while back to Mats Sundin who just kept chugging along right until the end.

Sundin played 18 seasons. Kopitar is now at 17. Same amount of playoff games played.

Sundin crushed it in season 17 at over a PPG but then went to Vancouver, declined but roared back for a killer playoff performance. Remember that he held out until December and didn't play until January so it makes sense that he wouldn't tear up the regular season on a new team. Then he retired.

Sundin played in a much different era and under way more stress playing in Toronto for so long. Kopitar lives at the beach and has zero media and fan pressure in comparison. He's only scored more points than this season four times in his career.

He has lost a step on the defensive side of things but the game is more offensive now and he's still super smart. Barring injury *knock on wood*, I think he can be a valuable player until age 40 at least.

What will be interesting is this next contract. Does he start doing the Joe Thornton one-year special? Does he leave money on the table so the Kings can spend cap elsewhere to make the team better?

Honestly, this team will not change for the better, or worse, while Kopitar is here. He is a glacier that chills the whole team. No passion, live to die another day approach, cold, calculated, pragmatic, respectful, honest warhorse of a player.

They need to move on. Its not helping any of these kids to play in this stagnant situation with a crystal clear glass ceiling. Its been 9 years, that's too long to go with no success without cleaning house. Kopitar, Doughty, their race here is run.

 

[Reaper45]

Honestly, this team will not change for the better, or worse, while Kopitar is here. He is a glacier that chills the whole team. No passion, live to die another day approach, cold, calculated, pragmatic, respectful, honest warhorse of a player.

They need to move on. Its not helping any of these kids to play in this stagnant situation with a crystal clear glass ceiling. Its been 9 years, that's too long to go with no success without cleaning house. Kopitar, Doughty, their race here is run.

Some of us have been saying this for sometime.

To tie into this I think a captain should never be up for the Lady Byng trophy. It’s fine to be a gentlemanly player but as a captain sometimes you need to lead by example and I feel like sometimes that means getting your hands dirty. Have the occasional fight, throw the occasional dirty hit as retaliation. Send the message this is my team and you’re not going to mess with it.

Kopitar is a fantastic player and has been the whole time he’s been here but that is not him.

 

[kilowatt]

Some of us have been saying this for sometime.

To tie into this I think a captain should never be up for the Lady Byng trophy. It’s fine to be a gentlemanly player but as a captain sometimes you need to lead by example and I feel like sometimes that means getting your hands dirty. Have the occasional fight, throw the occasional dirty hit as retaliation. Send the message this is my team and you’re not going to mess with it.

Kopitar is a fantastic player and has been the whole time he’s been here but that is not him.

This is one of the reasons why so many of us were so upset when Brown lost the captaincy. If I could give the C to anyone on the team right now, it’s probably Danault. Mikey would have an A.

 

[BigKing]

Honestly, this team will not change for the better, or worse, while Kopitar is here. He is a glacier that chills the whole team. No passion, live to die another day approach, cold, calculated, pragmatic, respectful, honest warhorse of a player.

They need to move on. Its not helping any of these kids to play in this stagnant situation with a crystal clear glass ceiling. Its been 9 years, that's too long to go with no success without cleaning house. Kopitar, Doughty, their race here is run.

But you know he isn't going anywhere else unless he wants to.

I echo the sentiments of not wanting my captain to be up for the Lady Byng unless said captain is Wayne Gretzky.

Kings go into Edmonton in a tight playoff seeding race and their captain boards and concusses Public Enemy #1. Kings response to anything is "Steady boys. Play our game".

I love Kopitar. Total stud of a hockey player but he is a machine. Doughty is all bark and no bite. The team still doesn't have many players that will drag everyone else into battle and none of the prospects add that element to their games since the role models don't do it.

 

[SmytheKing]

The Lady Byng thing is such a weird thing. It just sounds so old school and outdated. Here's a list of former players that were winners or finalists for the Lady Byng that I don't think anyone would think of as bad leaders/captains.

Pavel Datsyuk
Brad Richards
Martin St. Louis
Ryan O'Reilly
Nathan MacKinnon
Patrick Marleau
Zach Parise
Nicklas Lidstrom
Mike Modano
Joe Sakic
Adam Oates
Teemu Selanne
Ron Francis

But for some reason Anze Kopitar is a bad captain because leaders shouldn't win that award.

 

[Maynard]

The Lady Byng thing is such a weird thing. It just sounds so old school and outdated. Here's a list of former players that were winners or finalists for the Lady Byng that I don't think anyone would think of as bad leaders/captains.

Pavel Datsyuk
Brad Richards
Martin St. Louis
Ryan O'Reilly
Nathan MacKinnon
Patrick Marleau
Zach Parise
Nicklas Lidstrom
Mike Modano
Joe Sakic
Adam Oates
Teemu Selanne
Ron Francis

But for some reason Anze Kopitar is a bad captain because leaders shouldn't win that award.

People are talking about his demeanor, and how they’d prefer a tougher leader but did someone call him a “bad captain” like you mentioned? Or did you just make up a thing to argue against?

 

[SmytheKing]

People are talking about his demeanor, and how they’d prefer a tougher leader but did someone call him a “bad captain” like you mentioned? Or did you just make up a thing to argue against?

If you think a captain shouldn't be up for the Lady Byng...and your captain is up for the Lady Byng...what sort of implication are you making?

Why would you want him to not be the captain if you don't think he's a bad captain? Just because "toughness"? Is Ron Francis "tougher" than Anze Kopitar? Brad Richards? Zach Parise? Adam Oates? Joe Sakic?

Just a really weird thing to add on to the "Anze Kopitar isn't a real leader" thing that message board folks have always said. Like it's more "evidence" or something.

 

[King'sPawn]

People are talking about his demeanor, and how they’d prefer a tougher leader but did someone call him a “bad captain” like you mentioned? Or did you just make up a thing to argue against?

Throughout the years a select few have said he's a bad captain, doesn't care, doesn't demand more of himself, that the team goes as Kopitar goes, so the failings are a reflection of him, etc.

Has anyone said it directly in this thread? No. But it's no coincidence that a few from the "I want a tougher leader" camp were also from the aforementioned group.AC

 

[bland]

The Lady Byng thing is such a weird thing. It just sounds so old school and outdated. Here's a list of former players that were winners or finalists for the Lady Byng that I don't think anyone would think of as bad leaders/captains.

Pavel Datsyuk
Brad Richards
Martin St. Louis
Ryan O'Reilly
Nathan MacKinnon
Patrick Marleau
Zach Parise
Nicklas Lidstrom
Mike Modano
Joe Sakic
Adam Oates
Teemu Selanne
Ron Francis

But for some reason Anze Kopitar is a bad captain because leaders shouldn't win that award.

I don't really care about the trophies, Anze is a two-time Cup winning HoFer. But the team has been stuck in the same rut for almost a decade now and some of the unifying themes to those teams is that they fail to rise up to meet important occasions, struggle to integrate talented players, cannot hold big leads, and react to the opposition instead of dictating the game.

There needs to be a new direction, new voices, new expectations here. Re-signing Anze at the end of this deal would only serve to extend this malaise.

 

[SmytheKing]

Throughout the years a select few have said he's a bad captain, doesn't care, doesn't demand more of himself, that the team goes as Kopitar goes, so the failings are a reflection of him, etc.

Has anyone said it directly in this thread? No. But it's no coincidence that a few from the "I want a tougher leader" camp were also from the aforementioned group.AC

I'd also point out that I do agree with bland to an extent that this current team is not going to win anything with Kopitar and Doughty still here playing their current roles.

The Kings really feel like they're in a similar spot as they were in the last years of Norstrom as captain. Good enough to compete and fight every night, but not a contender by any stretch.

I have zero problems with the Kings moving Kopitar and/or Doughty, but it's not because Kopitar is up for the Lady Byng and that's what's holding the team back. His current level of play is still pretty damn good, but it's not good enough any longer. No fault of his either. Dude's been carrying this org on his back for 15 years. Someone else needs to do it and, if it ain't these kids, I'd like to know sooner rather than later.

I don't really care about the trophies, Anze is a two-time Cup winning HoFer. But the team has been stuck in the same rut for almost a decade now and some of the unifying themes to those teams is that they fail to rise up to meet important occasions, struggle to integrate talented players, cannot hold big leads, and react to the opposition instead of dictating the game.

There needs to be a new direction, new voices, new expectations here. Re-signing Anze at the end of this deal would only serve to extend this malaise.

You responded too quickly.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Blake will continue re-signing Kopitar and Doughty to whatever amount of money they want, because that’s the ride Luc and co have been hitched to since 2017.

The only chance of Kopitar or Doughty moving on from this franchise is if AEG cleans house and fires Luc, Blake, everyone.

There’s just no way we get that lucky.

 

[Little Psycho]

 

[SmytheKing]

Basically that is what the tweet means.

 

[KingPuckChoo]

Garnet Hathaway
Connor Clifton

would be UFA options?

McBain and Fehervary could RFA options to trade for w/ ARZ/WSH