Speculation: LA Kings News, Rumors, Roster Thread part VII

[cyclones22]

Well regardless of whether you think the issue is with the prospect or with the development path, the truth remains that the people responsible for both of those have received contract extensions or don't appear to be in any danger of losing their jobs. So what is it? All is well I suppose because the people in those positions have been rewarded.

 

[KINGS17]

Well regardless of whether you think the issue is with the prospect or with the development path, the truth remains that the people responsible for both of those have received contract extensions or don't appear to be in any danger of losing their jobs. So what is it? All is well I suppose because the people in those positions have been rewarded.

There will not be any accountability until Robitaille is fired.

 

[Sol]

Well regardless of whether you think the issue is with the prospect or with the development path, the truth remains that the people responsible for both of those have received contract extensions or don't appear to be in any danger of losing their jobs. So what is it? All is well I suppose because the people in those positions have been rewarded.

You must be dreaming to think that a good old boys team like the Kings is doing any serious firings. They have more job security than Elon Musk. How many stand out first round picks have we had in what like a decade? Let that sink in before you act like there’s any real pressure on them. I’ve seen more desire to perform at Walmart.

Just looked at all the first round picks since Doughty is Tanner Pearson and the best King the Kings have developed is Tyler Toffoli (2nd round) for nearly 12 years… tanner pearson lol.

The Kings have been trash in the first round and no one’s seat is hot. They need to pray to all the gods from all religions that these top picks pan out because they haven’t done shit so far.

They need to pray that these Kids turn a corner and show something.

 

[kingsfan28]

You must be dreaming to think that a good old boys team like the Kings is doing any serious firings. They have more job security than Elon Musk. How many stand out first round picks have we had in what like a decade? Let that sink in before you act like there’s any real pressure on them. I’ve seen more desire to perform at Walmart.

Just looked at all the first round picks since Doughty is Tanner Pearson and the best King the Kings have developed is Tyler Toffoli (2nd round) for nearly 12 years… tanner pearson lol.

The Kings have been trash in the first round and no one’s seat is hot. They need to pray to all the gods from all religions that these top picks pan out because they haven’t done shit so far.

They need to pray that these Kids turn a corner and show something.

In all fairness, if you don't have the first to develop to start with, you can't do much. Kempe , drafted in 14' was the last guy to finally breakout. It took what 8 years from draft to nhl for him to get it? Next up would be Valardi and Kupari in 17' and 18' . Valardi's basically lost 2 full years to his back problem before he could really play. Kupari, knee injury. Unfortunately , our top 4 first round pick [outside of Clarke] have all had major injuries which has slowed all their development, that can't be denied. That being said, if guys don't starting hitting real soon, the blame will have to go straight on Murray and Emerson who are in charge of that. You can't have all that talent be stuck in 2nd gear and not progress.

 

[Herby]

And... at the risk of making myself look like a liar by continuing with commenting.

By no means do I feel any prospect is perfect.

But I do think when there are multiple pieces of evidence suggesting underachieving, it's hard to put blame on the prospects when I believe there's a common denominator.

I would have an easier time putting blame on Byfield or other prospects for their lack of growth, or other factors, if I felt more comfortable with the Kings' developmental choices and strategies.

Hey, I am with you on the poor choices by management. They certainly did not help with development and in certain cases probably caused significant damage to the long-term potential. But even as critical as I have been with Blake there is still some responsibility that has to fall on either the evaluation staff or the players themselves with the results we have seen. This is not 100% on development and deployment, it is probably a majority but blame has to go elsewhere, it's not all Todd or Blake.

But I do agree with you that it's mostly development more than evaluation or the players themselves (idk what % to put on each). I guess my big issue is that almost all these decisions were overwhelmingly supported here by a lot of people , and now there is anger about the consequences of those same decisions they supported.

Most wanted QB in the AHL
Most wanted Turcotte in the AHL
Most wanted Vilardi as the 2C instead of Byfield
I don't remember how people felt on Kupari to be honest.

I mean, what did some people expect to happen?
What was upside vs. downside?

People can talk about "Hindsight is 20/20" or "Monday Morning QB" but all of the concerns about each of these poor decisions were addressed in threads on this forum. And many of those concerns have come to be and caused all those prospects to take steps back in comparison to their peers who were developed more traditionally. It is not "hindsight....is...2020" to question proven development paths being abandoned for "The Kings Way". If there is a clear trail to get into town and everyone else takes the trail and gets there in an 15-20 minutes and the Kings go through the woods and still aren't there an hour later that falls on the Kings. If it had worked out well they'd be giving Blake all the credit, it's only fair he shares a ton of blame for the the unorthodox AHL strategy not working.

But there were some evaluation errors that are tough to just ignore as well, not all development.

Gabe Vilardi's skating and potential injury concerns were not taken into account by the Kings like it very likely was by many of the teams who passed on him. It still showed that the "Skating is a a fad" thing or whatever the hell non-sense DL spewed in that interview was still alive and well in the organization. That is another misjudgement that ultimately falls on Blake, but he is heavily advised by scouts who did not factor in that huge flaw. Vilardi had some injury bad luck for sure, but this was never going to be a pick that was going to return good value because Gabe doesn't skate well enough to play C in the NHL.

Alex Turcotte at 5OA was another evaluation error. Yes he was taken where he was rated, but just like you praise a scouting staff for finding hidden gems like Faber and Spence you have to be fair and be critical for not seeing red flags and/or landmines in higher rated guys. There were some truly difference making players available for the Kings there and you just hope that your scouts can find one of them and the Kings didn't. If Turcotte had been properly developed he would have certainly had a long career as an Andrew Copp or Andrew Cogliano type. That is probably still his ceiling now but health concerns and losing out on that all-important sophomore year hurt his chances of reaching that. But even if he had played his sophomore year he was not going to be the Toews or Richards the Kings were hoping for. I love both those former UM players, perfect guys for your top 9 who add a lot to a team, but come on, you have to get more than Andrew Copp out of a 5OA pick.

Those are two really important picks, where there were really good players still on the board for the Kings and they chose the wrong player. Hard to blame Emerson for that part of it.

So yes, most of it is on Emerson/Blake and poor development choices but there certainly is some blame that falls on Yanetti/Blake and the amateur scouting team.

If you are having issues at both development and evaluation and now you are expecting those same poorly developed players to jump into a competitive team, well that is going to present yet another roadblock to these guys. That is why I wish they had just sucked last year (and maybe this year), it would have given those guys more of a chance to show what they have or don't have while also adding more top-end pieces. I know this is the Buffalo strategy you don't like, but man it would have given all those guys a ton of low-pressure icetime.

I still place almost zero blame on TM. He is just doing what he is being asked to do, which is send out the players who give the team the best chance to win. GM's and coaches regularly meet, so it's not as if this is his doing, he is obv following Blake's lead. He was told to make the playoffs last year and he did.

 

[DoktorJeep]

Facts are that Al Murray is the Kings best all time scout. He left in 2007. So he was the guy on top of Brown, Kopitar and Quick at the draft. Basically the majority of the championship core. Safe to say the Kings get zero cups without his contributions. His track record with Tampa Bay proves he wasn’t a fluke.

Yanetti is a colorful interview. He comes off as a long winded, crude, blue collar guy. I can see in retrospect how that appealed to DL. By my account his first pick as head scout was Bernier followed by Lewis. Notably, Giroux went after both and so did Marchand.

So Yanetti has his hits, but he’s done far less in way more time than his immediate predecessor and franchise high water mark. Anyone arguing for Yanetti at this point is left giving him sole credit for Doughty over Glendale’s choice in Bogosian.

 

[johnjm22]

People around here constantly complained about Al Murray when he was with LA.

Development is overrated. It's mostly on the prospects themselves.

Drafting is at least 50% luck.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Facts are that Al Murray is the Kings best all time scout. He left in 2007. So he was the guy on top of Brown, Kopitar and Quick at the draft. Basically the majority of the championship core. Safe to say the Kings get zero cups without his contributions. His track record with Tampa Bay proves he wasn’t a fluke.

Yanetti is a colorful interview. He comes off as a long winded, crude, blue collar guy. I can see in retrospect how that appealed to DL. By my account his first pick as head scout was Bernier followed by Lewis. Notably, Giroux went after both and so did Marchand.

So Yanetti has his hits, but he’s done far less in way more time than his immediate predecessor and franchise high water mark. Anyone arguing for Yanetti at this point is left giving him sole credit for Doughty over Glendale’s choice in Bogosian.

Murray also only hit Brown in a draft that featured a million hall of famers...taking Boyle and Tambellini as well. Three first round picks and all to show for it is Dustin Brown, who, bless him, he's probably about the mean/average 'hit' of that round.

He hit on Kopitar, Brown, and Quick thankfully, and that's more than what we've gotten since really I think. So I don't think you're 'wrong' but I do think it's overly romantic to pretend Murray was amazing as well, at least here.

 

[Herby]

Facts are that Al Murray is the Kings best all time scout. He left in 2007. So he was the guy on top of Brown, Kopitar and Quick at the draft. Basically the majority of the championship core. Safe to say the Kings get zero cups without his contributions. His track record with Tampa Bay proves he wasn’t a fluke.

Yanetti is a colorful interview. He comes off as a long winded, crude, blue collar guy. I can see in retrospect how that appealed to DL. By my account his first pick as head scout was Bernier followed by Lewis. Notably, Giroux went after both and so did Marchand.

So Yanetti has his hits, but he’s done far less in way more time than his immediate predecessor and franchise high water mark. Anyone arguing for Yanetti at this point is left giving him sole credit for Doughty over Glendale’s choice in Bogosian.

I think Mark Yanetti and his staff do a wonderful job in the later rounds of the draft. Kaliyev, Faber, Spence, Anderson. These are all legit 1st round talents that the Kings found later in the draft, just since Blake took over in 2017. Grans could easily join that list this year, another great pick. I don't know if there is a better team in the NHL beyond Round 1.

But if we are going to be results oriented with those picks we have to acknowledge just how big a disappointment the first round has been. For some reason the Kings have had a difficult time replicating the success in round 1.

Just a theory but I think the Kings look for traditional "Kings" players throughout the draft, a strategy that works in the later rounds but is a disaster in the 1st rounds. Not enough swinging for the fences.

 

[Herby]

Murray also only hit Brown in a draft that featured a million hall of famers...taking Boyle and Tambellini as well. Three first round picks and all to show for it is Dustin Brown, who, bless him, he's probably about the mean/average 'hit' of that round.

He hit on Kopitar, Brown, and Quick thankfully, and that's more than what we've gotten since really I think. So I don't think you're 'wrong' but I do think it's overly romantic to pretend Murray was amazing as well, at least here.

The 2003 draft rightfully cost all those guys their jobs. To have three first rounders and four picks in the top 45 in a draft like that and to end up what they did...gross.

Props to them though, their last draft in 2005 was the greatest draft in team history. None of the banners are hanging from the rafters without those two picks in that draft.

 

[kilowatt]

In all fairness, if you don't have the first to develop to start with, you can't do much. Kempe , drafted in 14' was the last guy to finally breakout. It took what 8 years from draft to nhl for him to get it? Next up would be Valardi and Kupari in 17' and 18' . Valardi's basically lost 2 full years to his back problem before he could really play. Kupari, knee injury. Unfortunately , our top 4 first round pick [outside of Clarke] have all had major injuries which has slowed all their development, that can't be denied. That being said, if guys don't starting hitting real soon, the blame will have to go straight on Murray and Emerson who are in charge of that. You can't have all that talent be stuck in 2nd gear and not progress.

Well, let's list the first round picks post-Kempe.

2015:
2016:
2017: Gabriel Vilardi (11)
2018: Rasmus Kupari (20)
2019: Alex Turcotte (5), Tobias Bjornfot (22)
2020: Quinton Byfield (2)
2021: Brandt Clarke (8)
2022:

For players drafted in the latter third of the round, becoming NHL regulars is likely a win. I think Bjornfot and Kupari will fit that criteria this season, given spots are available for them. Or, I guess to put it a different way, they haven't underperformed their draft slots. Both can contribute in lesser roles if given the chance.

I think it's probably time to call it on Vilardi. I still think he has the hands and vision offensively to be a decent player somewhere, but I just don't see it happening here in LA. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets claimed on waivers. I wouldn't even be surprised if he doesn't get claimed on waivers.

The three big ones are Turcotte, Byfield, and Clarke. Clarke's done nothing but impress in the OHL. I'd love for him to step onto the team this year and succeed, but I honestly think it might be best for him to go back to the OHL for one more season. Anyway, I'm not worried about him or our defensive prospect progress in general.

So... Turcotte and Byfield. Those are obviously the elephants in the room. At worst, Byfield's linemates are two of Iafallo, Kaliyev, and Grundstrom. Those three are significantly better than Vilardi, Athanasiou, and Brown. Not even a question really. I'm hopeful that we can split the top six even further and play Kaliyev with Kopitar. Not to mention, a full offseason post-injury is going to be huge for him. One of Byfield's biggest assets is his speed, that wasn't an easy injury to come back from. I'm not worried about Byfield to be honest. I just hope he gets some extra chances on the powerplay this year. Hiller might help there.

As for Turcotte, he needs a healthy year in Ontario. That's pretty much it. Even if he doesn't turn into a top six center, he still has so many qualities that help when games matter most.

Potential opening night lineup:

Fiala - Kopitar - Kempe
Moore - Danault - Arvidsson
Iafallo - Byfield - Grundstrom
Lemieux - Lizotte - Kupari

Opening night in 2021:

Arvidsson - Kopitar - Brown
Iafallo - Danault - Kempe
Tkachev - Vilardi - Kaliyev
Lemieux - Lizotte - Moore

Opening night 2020* (January 2021, technically):

Iafallo - Kopitar - Brown
Athanasiou - Lizotte - Carter
Kempe - Vilardi - Wagner
Moore - Amadio - Luff

Opening night 2019:

Iafallo - Kopitar - Brown
Kovalchuk - Kempe - Carter
Wagner - Lizotte - Toffoli
Clifford - Amadio - Lewis

We've come a pretty long way in a few years.

 

[johnjm22]

I enjoy this guy's channel. His analysis is quantitative and shrewd. It's not the fluff you see on most channels.

It's not the take of a random hockey fan, he has some expertise.

 

[Cianide]

Vilardi had some injury bad luck for sure, but this was never going to be a pick that was going to return good value because Gabe doesn't skate well enough to play C in the NHL.

Wrong. Vilardi would have been an all-star center had the org kept him there. Backchecking problems? That can be solved. But the org wanted to win right now and chose the wrong path in bringing Kopitar back to the first line. Now we're stuck with too many wingers and a kid, Vilardi, who's never played wing. Kings dropped the ball on this one, but hey, as long as we get another first round exit I'm fine with it.

 

[johnjm22]

Potential opening night lineup:

Fiala - Kopitar - Kempe
Moore - Danault - Arvidsson
Iafallo - Byfield - Grundstrom
Lemieux - Lizotte - Kupari

Kaliyev also.

I really want Grundstrom and Kupari to be regulars, but we still have a bit of a log jam at forward.

Kupari will likely be in the AHL because he's waiver exempt IMO.



If Lemieux sits, you can work all 3 of Kaliyev/Grundstrom/Kupari into the lineup:

Fiala - Kopitar - Kempe
Moore - Danault - Arvidsson
Iafallo - Byfield - Kaliyev
Grundstrom- Lizotte - Kupari
Lemieux
JAD
Vilardi
Andersson

 

[Cianide]

I'd really like to see one of fiala, Kempe or arvidsson on byfileds wing. I think it'd really help the big guy out.

 

[Herby]

People around here constantly complained about Al Murray when he was with LA.

Development is overrated. It's mostly on the prospects themselves.

Drafting is at least 50% luck.

In some ways I agree on the draft thing. Especially because some guys peak at 17 or 18 and some develop into their early 20's and in many ways it's hard to tell who will do what. That is why I wonder why so much emphasis is placed on where a guy was drafted when doing a re-ranking. So much changes between 17 and 19 but people still defer to what they saw at 17 instead of 18, 19 and 20.

The development thing, I don't know. If you look at the success of college players who play two years vs those who don't it is pretty telling. The CHL/NHL agreement takes a lot of development decisions out of the hands of teams with CHL prospects (a blessing for the Kings). There has also been a pretty strong run of success with high picks starting in the NHL and ending up fine. I think there is something to be said for trusting proven development methods.

Ottawa and New Jersey both had the option to assign their high picks to the AHL but chose to put them in the NHL. The Kings had the same option with a high pick and chose the AHL. That is an example of a development decision that could easily sway how good or bad a player turns out.

But yes, there is also some responsibility on the player that does often get overlooked.

 

[Herby]

Wrong. Vilardi would have been an all-star center had the org kept him there. Backchecking problems? That can be solved. But the org wanted to win right now and chose the wrong path in bringing Kopitar back to the first line. Now we're stuck with too many wingers and a kid, Vilardi, who's never played wing. Kings dropped the ball on this one, but hey, as long as we get another first round exit I'm fine with it.

There is no truth at all to that statement. There was nothing that showed all-star in his year as the 2C. His skating was so poor that the team correctly made an attempt to salvage his career as a RW. What all-star center skates as poorly as Gabe? It's 2022 not 1996.

And if what you said were to be true then everyone in front office should have been fired. No team is converting a potential all-star center to wing and sending him to the minors.

Also, if your views were shared by even one team in the league someone would have offered a 2nd or late 1st for a 23 year old plug and play 1C when the Kings sent him to the minors.

 

[johnjm22]

In some ways I agree on the draft thing. Especially because some guys peak at 17 or 18 and some develop into their early 20's and in many ways it's hard to tell who will do what. That is why I wonder why so much emphasis is placed on where a guy was drafted when doing a re-ranking. So much changes between 17 and 19 but people still defer to what they saw at 17 instead of 18, 19 and 20.

The development thing, I don't know. If you look at the success of college players who play two years vs those who don't it is pretty telling. The CHL/NHL agreement takes a lot of development decisions out of the hands of teams with CHL prospects (a blessing for the Kings). There has also been a pretty strong run of success with high picks starting in the NHL and ending up fine. I think there is something to be said for trusting proven development methods.

Ottawa and New Jersey both had the option to assign their high picks to the AHL but chose to put them in the NHL. The Kings had the same option with a high pick and chose the AHL. That is an example of a development decision that could easily sway how good or bad a player turns out.

But yes, there is also some responsibility on the player that does often get overlooked.

I think it's possible to hurt a prospect's development by bringing them along too quickly, but I don't think you can really hurt a prospect by bringing them along too slowly (within reason).

The way I see it, if playing 40 games in the AHL is going to hurt Byfield's development, then he was never going to be a good NHLer in the first place.

 

[Cianide]

There is no truth at all to that statement. There was nothing that showed all-star in his year as the 2C. His skating was so poor that the team correctly made an attempt to salvage his career as a RW. What all-star center skates as poorly as Gabe? It's 2022 not 1996.

And if what you said were to be true then everyone in front office should have been fired. No team is converting a potential all-star center to wing and sending him to the minors.

Also, if your views were shared by even one team in the league someone would have offered a 2nd or late 1st for a 23 year old plug and play 1C when the Kings sent him to the minors.

Yeah Blake and Co. really gave Vilardi a solid shot at 1C. They gave him plenty of time to mesh with his wingers and learn the defensive game. He's no slower than Kopitar and I'll stake that on anything. Just keep pumping the Blake kool-aid and watching our guys never make it past the second round. I'll wait.

 

[johnjm22]

Wrong. Vilardi would have been an all-star center had the org kept him there. Backchecking problems? That can be solved. But the org wanted to win right now and chose the wrong path in bringing Kopitar back to the first line. Now we're stuck with too many wingers and a kid, Vilardi, who's never played wing. Kings dropped the ball on this one, but hey, as long as we get another first round exit I'm fine with it.

When I started reading this post, I seriously thought it was sarcasm.

 

[Cianide]

When I started reading this post, I seriously thought it was sarcasm.

Justify the org however you want. If Byfield flops, it's panic time for Blake. I have a sneaky feeling that Byfield will turn into nothing. But that's just my opinion.

 

[Herby]

Yeah Blake and Co. really gave Vilardi a solid shot at 1C. They gave him plenty of time to mesh with his wingers and learn the defensive game. He's no slower that Kopitar and I'll stake that on anything. Just keep pumping the Blake kool-aid and watching our guys never make it past the second round. I'll wait.

Things I didn't expect to hear directed at me today on this forum.

"Just keep pumping Blake kool-aid"

I think Axl and GBH might both die when they read that.

Why have no other teams traded for Vilardi if he is a future all-star and Blake hates him anyways? Or he was an RFA this summer, why no offer sheet, the Kings wouldn't match $1.5-2m, that is only a 3rd round pick, seems like a bargain for an all-star center. Seems like 1 of the 31 other teams might jump at that. Maybe Blake hates him so much he is going to keep him as a healthy scratch just out of spite.

Or maybe every other team sees what the Kings see.

Justify the org however you want. If Byfield flops, it's panic time for Blake. I have a sneaky feeling that Byfield will turn into nothing. But that's just my opinion.

23 year old Gabe Vilardi coming off a year split between the AHL and the NHL is an all-star center being wronged by the organization and 20 year old QB is going to turn into nothing. Ok.

 

[Cianide]

Things I didn't expect to hear directed at me today on this forum.

"Just keep pumping Blake kool-aid"

I think Axl and GBH might both die when they read that.

Why have no other teams traded for Vilardi if he is a future all-star and Blake hates him anyways? Or he was an RFA this summer, why no offer sheet, the Kings wouldn't match $1.5-2m, that is only a 3rd round pick, seems like a bargain for an all-star center. Seems like 1 of the 31 other teams might jump at that. Maybe Blake hates him so much he is going to keep him as a healthy scratch just out of spite.

Or maybe every other team sees what the Kings see.

Vilardi hasn't developed into anything yet. He hasn't been given a chance. Kings wanted to win now. Other teams aren't going to take a chance and trade big for a kid that's unproven. It's almost like it was by design that the org disallowed Vilardi to really do much just so that they can keep him around. The org is great at that, keeping players around as if they're some insurance policy should the guys they want to excel and are pushing a square peg into a round hole, flop and need backup. Just keep drinking it and enjoy your season seats.

 

[Herby]

Vilardi hasn't developed into anything yet. He hasn't been given a chance. Kings wanted to win now. Other teams aren't going to take a chance and trade big for a kid that's unproven. It's almost like it was by design that the org disallowed Vilardi to really do much just so that they can keep him around. The org is great at that, keeping players around as if they're some insurance policy should the guys they want to excel and are pushing a square peg into a round hole, flop and need backup. Just keep drinking it and enjoy your season seats.

Are you related to Vilardi?

Not given a chance? Were you not following the team 2 seasons ago when Vilardi played 55 games as the Kings 2C. Mostly playing next to Jeff Carter, Trevor Moore and AA? What chance do you want? Teams dont just hand 1st line center roles.

So no team is going to trade a 3rd (prob Vilardi value now) or even a 2nd. Or offer sheet him for a 3rd to get a future ALL-STAR CENTER as you describe him. Why would no team be willing to take that chance? The Kings took a chance on Lias Andersson, these types of trades happen all the time.

If even 1 of the 31 teams had the views you have he would be on that team.

 

[Cianide]

Are you related to Vilardi?

So no team is going to trade a 3rd (prob Vilardi value now) or even a 2nd. Or offer sheet him for a 3rd to get a future ALL-STAR CENTER as you describe him. Why would no team be willing to take that chance? The Kings took a chance on Lias Andersson, these types of trades happen all the time.

If even 1 of the 31 teams had the views you have he would be on that team.

What even makes you think that Blake wants to trade him?