LA KINGS 2023/4 Regular season discussion

I would do relative to get a better picture. Those were his first NHL games against a team that had two holey goalies to start the season.
I exported some relative stats, I don't think many track GF/GA relatively.

statsD.jpg


You can take a few things from this for sure.

Clarke was average Corsi-wise, while his Fenwick was fantastic. That gap indicates he was one of the best on the offensive side of possession and shots that got through were dangerous, but he has some shot-suppression work he has to do. These don't take into account matchup strength, and Clarke was getting easier deployments than say, Anderson. I would say that's a fair assessment of Clarke, we all know he has a good amount of growing to do in his own zone. His higher risk style of play also needs some tuning and dialing back.

He was probably the best at creation, the team had a high shooting % when he was on the ice which indicates high-quality chances. That's something we've definitely noticed from the start with him, he makes things happen in the O zone.

The most glaring thing is the SV% when he was on the ice. Everyone is clustered around 90 except for Clarke and Gavrikov. Gavrikov had the benefit of Korpi, who was much better than the previous goalies. Durzi, Edler, and Walker were a bit lower as you would expect from giving up better chances. But when the SV% is that much of an outlier, it tells you your goalies were absolute dogshit, which matches what we saw at the beginning of last year. Korpi led to around a 5% increase over Copley alone - a pretty big gap. Well, the gap of terribleness from Quick and Peterson was twice as big. It's one of those rare instances where someone says "My mom could stop shots better" and they would be correct, provided their mom was 6 foot plus and flexible.
 
I think they should also. But if Blake thinks they can go on a run I can see them just keeping Roy (and Arvidsson). Basically just treat them like their own rentals and let them walk in the offseason for nothing.
I fundamentally agree wrt Clarke’s long term development. I just question it being the best way to get the best out of a Play-off run as it gives a short window to allow him to settle and translate his game. I’d certainly support moving Roy, I’d just do it sooner.

Agree with both......I think Clarke needs to iron out his game/maturity though in the AHL for more than 6 games etc.....people shit on LA because OMG Clarke is in the AHL, yet defenseman of his age, almost always spend time in the AHL, Makar being an exception, Hughes being an exception, and while Clarke is good, he's not those two.....by any stretch of the imagination.
 
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There's been some posts about how our 5x5 d corps offense is woefully inadequate, so I decided to take a look at how bad it is and its bad. Ranking D in the league last season by points 60, our #1 Doughty is 115 and his partner is just below him at 116. Roy 94 and Gavrikov 130. Troy Stecher is at 110 just as a mile marker of brutality. My eye test told me DD was junk, but I didnt know he was this bad.

Here's the top 10
1698340973514.png




Go to money puck, set it up as below, sort by points 60 descending

1698340825092.png
 
There's been some posts about how our 5x5 d corps offense is woefully inadequate, so I decided to take a look at how bad it is and its bad. Ranking D in the league last season by points 60, our #1 Doughty is 115 and his partner is just below him at 116. Roy 94 and Gavrikov 130. Troy Stecher is at 110 just as a mile marker of brutality. My eye test told me DD was junk, but I didnt know he was this bad.

Here's the top 10
View attachment 758189



Go to money puck, set it up as below, sort by points 60 descending

View attachment 758184
I'm not understanding why this is important. The Kings were in top 10 for GF...better than SJ, VGK, WPG, NSH, NYR and tied with COL. who gives a shit who's scoring the goals as long as they are being scored?
 
I'm not understanding why this is important. The Kings were in top 10 for GF...better than SJ, VGK, WPG, NSH, NYR and tied with COL. who gives a shit who's scoring the goals as long as they are being scored?
Its important because I think its an illusion that DD is a top pairing D guy on offense and really the top pairing are 2 shutdown D. Maybe its time to get some more balance in the D pairs. This also matters come playoff time when other teams dont have to respect the points as much.
 
I'm not understanding why this is important. The Kings were in top 10 for GF...better than SJ, VGK, WPG, NSH, NYR and tied with COL. who gives a shit who's scoring the goals as long as they are being scored?
This is about winning in the playoffs. You need a meaning threat from the blue line to go deep. Clarke is the only genuine offensive d-man in the system, Spence even though he can QB a pp is a PMD with reasonable offensive upside. Clarke has game breaker potential.
 
There's been some posts about how our 5x5 d corps offense is woefully inadequate, so I decided to take a look at how bad it is and its bad. Ranking D in the league last season by points 60, our #1 Doughty is 115 and his partner is just below him at 116. Roy 94 and Gavrikov 130. Troy Stecher is at 110 just as a mile marker of brutality. My eye test told me DD was junk, but I didnt know he was this bad.

Here's the top 10
View attachment 758189



Go to money puck, set it up as below, sort by points 60 descending

View attachment 758184
Not that what you are saying is off base, but I wouldn't use moneypuck for anything. I had to stop using their projections and stats because they were so far off it was comical. It's all based on gambling rather than actually hockey statistics.

With 7 games left last year, they had the Flames with a higher playoff probability than the Kings, for example.
 
Not that what you are saying is off base, but I wouldn't use moneypuck for anything. I had to stop using their projections and stats because they were so far off it was comical. It's all based on gambling rather than actually hockey statistics.

With 7 games left last year, they had the Flames with a higher playoff probability than the Kings, for example.
So you are implying their pts/60 stat is incorrect? or that their projections are crap. I dont know how you can based a pts 60 off of gambling
 
There's been some posts about how our 5x5 d corps offense is woefully inadequate, so I decided to take a look at how bad it is and its bad. Ranking D in the league last season by points 60, our #1 Doughty is 115 and his partner is just below him at 116. Roy 94 and Gavrikov 130. Troy Stecher is at 110 just as a mile marker of brutality. My eye test told me DD was junk, but I didnt know he was this bad.

Here's the top 10




Go to money puck, set it up as below, sort by points 60 descending
Here's a better breakdown of teams ranked by defensemen. It takes points, age, and +/- into account.

You can see that there are 5-6 teams that get less scoring from their blueline, which seems about right. Their assessment of the Kings is pretty spot on, IMO.

Ranking NHL Teams By Defencemen

So you are implying their pts/60 stat is incorrect? or that their projections are crap. I dont know how you can based a pts 60 off of gambling
Their site is all about projection. They just have algorithms that are doing things and a lot of the time, their stats are completely off base. You'll see similar stats from sites like hockey reference, natural stat trick, etc. Moneypuck is way off from those a lot of the time.

And yes, their points-60 stats are limited. If you tally defensive scoring at the end of the season when all teams have essentially the same time played, the Kings are not the lowest by a longshot. The Kings had 40 more points from their defense than Chicago, for example, far more than is explained by special teams.
 
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Here's a better breakdown of teams ranked by defensemen. It takes points, age, and +/- into account.

You can see that there are 5-6 teams that get less scoring from their blueline, which seems about right. Their assessment of the Kings is pretty spot on, IMO.

Ranking NHL Teams By Defencemen


Their site is all about projection. They just have algorithms that are doing things and a lot of the time, their stats are completely off base. You'll see similar stats from sites like hockey reference, natural stat trick, etc. Moneypuck is way off from those a lot of the time.

And yes, their points-60 stats are limited. If you tally defensive scoring at the end of the season when all teams have essentially the same time played, the Kings are not the lowest by a longshot. The Kings had 40 more points from their defense than Chicago, for example, far more than is explained by special teams.
I dont think you've proven their p/60 stat is incorrect. Ill look for another site for that to see if i can find something. But the bottom line is our top 4 D are terrible offensively 5x5. Are you debating that?
 
I dont think you've proven their p/60 stat is incorrect. Ill look for another site for that to see if i can find something. But the bottom line is our top 4 D pairs are terrible offensively 5x5. Are you debating that?
They could be a lot better, but I don't think they are as bad as it might appear.

From the top-4 D right now they have 12 points in 6 games. That's not bad at all, that's pacing for 164 points despite playing a really tough schedule. Overall they have 15 points from the D which paces for over 200 points. And only one of those points (Roy) is on the PP, everything else is at even strength. For reference, only 6 teams had over 200 points from their defense last year in all situations.

I'd put them middle of the pack right now offensively. They have more even strength points from their defense than the Avalanche do, FWIW. And Boston. Same as Carolina.
 
They could be a lot better, but I don't think they are as bad as it might appear.

From the top-4 D right now they have 12 points in 6 games. That's not bad at all, that's pacing for 164 points despite playing a really tough schedule. Overall they have 15 points from the D which paces for over 200 points. And only one of those points (Roy) is on the PP, everything else is at even strength. For reference, only 6 teams had over 200 points from their defense last year in all situations.

I'd put them middle of the pack right now offensively. They have more even strength points from their defense than the Avalanche do, FWIW. And Boston. Same as Carolina.
I think its too early in the season to assess where they really are and project out... but so far its better. Im still going to highlight that 8 and 44 is one of the most offensively challenged top pair in the league.
 
Here's a better breakdown of teams ranked by defensemen. It takes points, age, and +/- into account.

You can see that there are 5-6 teams that get less scoring from their blueline, which seems about right. Their assessment of the Kings is pretty spot on, IMO.

Ranking NHL Teams By Defencemen


Their site is all about projection. They just have algorithms that are doing things and a lot of the time, their stats are completely off base. You'll see similar stats from sites like hockey reference, natural stat trick, etc. Moneypuck is way off from those a lot of the time.

And yes, their points-60 stats are limited. If you tally defensive scoring at the end of the season when all teams have essentially the same time played, the Kings are not the lowest by a longshot. The Kings had 40 more points from their defense than Chicago, for example, far more than is explained by special teams.
According to my eye test this list is pretty accurate.
The rangers on top is 1000% correct- not a weak d man in that group. The rangers are set up for years with these guys.
Our ranking at #12 i think is pretty close as well. The addition of vlad has really helped but doughty drags our ranking down. I think our present group is better than people think.
 
Just bumping this again for a couple reasons. For one, it's a good read. For two, since we're talking about defensemen scoring - Doughty himself calls himself a defensive defenseman. I know he's talented, but maybe he shouldn't be quarterbacking the first powerplay unit all this time?
 
I think its too early in the season to assess where they really are and project out... but so far its better. Im still going to highlight that 8 and 44 is one of the most offensively challenged top pair in the league.
I agree it's too early, and things are looking up. We just don't have that top-scoring defensive guy that some other teams have. Last year they were pretty terrible, not generating a whole lot.

The thing that they lack out of the top pair is creativity. I fully expect the D to get a lot more points than last year, top-10 wouldn't surprise me. But I certainly get your point. I think Roy/Gavrikov have been better offensively overall, but not as good defensively, which was unexpected to me.
 
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Agree with both......I think Clarke needs to iron out his game/maturity though in the AHL for more than 6 games etc.....people shit on LA because OMG Clarke is in the AHL, yet defenseman of his age, almost always spend time in the AHL, Makar being an exception, Hughes being an exception, and while Clarke is good, he's not those two.....by any stretch of the imagination.
I am okay with him being in the AHL but pretty sure Clarke would be playing for the Devils too instead of Hughes.
Hughes is good but there is no competition there.

Makar is miles ahead of everything.
 
I agree it's too early, and things are looking up. We just don't have that top-scoring defensive guy that some other teams have. Last year they were pretty terrible, not generating a whole lot.

The thing that they lack out of the top pair is creativity. I fully expect the D to get a lot more points than last year, top-10 wouldn't surprise me. But I certainly get your point. I think Roy/Gavrikov have been better offensively overall, but not as good defensively, which was unexpected to me.
I think Roy/Gavrikov is a fairly good pairing.. Gavrikov has offensive skill - he's a very balanced player.. You could pair him with a Clarke or with a Roy. I dont see a good way to mix Clarke into things without demoting Spence... maybe they can platoon at some point to see what Clarke can do.
 
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I am okay with him being in the AHL but pretty sure Clarke would be playing for the Devils too instead of Hughes.
Hughes is good but there is no competition there.

Makar is miles ahead of everything.

I was thinking Quinn Hughes bud, not Luke, and no guarantee, if Nemec isn't playing for NJD, hard to see how Clarke would be
 
Doughty was a dynamite offensive blueliner his first few years then seemed content to settle into this defensive rover role.

At 33, he’s an awful choice for a #1 D.

The reality of the modern NHL is that most contending #1 Ds produce 60+ points and are at worst average defensively.

The rest of your blueline is then filled out with defensive rovers or crease clearers who can plug and play in appropriate situations.

Doughty at 33 would be a great #2 for a contending team.
 
If you are using advanced stats to compare Clarke using his 9 games at the start of last season, then shouldn't you limit the other Kings Dmen to those SAME 9 games too?
Seems a better apples-to-apples comparison. Especially when you are doing it to compare against other Kings and what attributes/weaknesses he brings. That way you don't get distorted results. This is the problem with using such limited data. If Clarke had 50-100 games, then you wouldn't have this same erroneous statistical analysis and conclusions.
 
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