Rumor: Kypreos says Matthews will be 13.5M (Haggling over term)

[TS Quint]

Covid did not 'depress salaries'. The cap only went up since Covid, at the worst of it, it stayed still. You're acting like the cap went down.

All Covid did was stop salaries from rising as fast because the cap barely went up (but it went up nonetheless).

Salaries being 'depressed' seems like a weak argument an owner might make. How the hell is the salary cap only going up, but salaries are going down. There's 0 logic behind it.

Also, there wasn't that many 10M players signed because there's not that many 10M+ players in the league. Not because Covid lowered salaries or something. Those top players are now going to be re-signed. I imagine McDavid, Draisaitl, Matthews and Marner push up the cap again.

I repeat, the cap today is the highest it's ever been in NHL history - why on earth would salaries be down?

If we're claiming Matthews was asking 13.5M X 8 and now, with more accolades, he's happy with 13.5M X 3 - shorter term is usually more expensive for the team, then it's a discount relative to his last ask.

Either Dubas was a terrible negotiator, or Matthews has decided to take a discount relative to his past based on the argument you were making. Stop with the 'depressed salaries on a cap that only went up' nonsense.

You have no idea what is going on lol. When it comes to contract negotiation they don’t think of it as a $ they think of it as a % Of the cap.

as for how you think contracts work for various lengths please see post #1268 and Dubas’ quote. So for example let’s call the 3 x $13.5m contract 15.7% of the cap when it starts. 3 years later for as An example the cap has gone up by $9m and Matthews renegotiates, he’s probably going to feel he’s worth the same so a 3 year $14.915. That’s now 6 years @ $85,245,000, $14,207,500 AAV and a 16.5% cap hit. That’s almost at McDavids cap hit (16.7%) and it’s only 6 years, by the time you get the next two years in what Matthews is asking for is more than McDavid. But I think we all know when he’s 31 Matthews will finally take that 8 year contract and from what we have seen there will be no discounts for what might be some garbage years at the end.

i don’t know why you keep posting like you are adding anything to the discussion. You are derailing the conversation with all the thing you don’t understand.

 

[AvroArrow]

Negotiations taking so long because the Leafs want to pay him more ?

Woosh

 

[Seanaconda]

Woosh

You can't reply to sarcasm with more ?

 

[AvroArrow]

You can't reply to sarcasm with more ?

You can, but you weren't being sarcastic

 

[Guttersniped]

delete

 

[Divine]

You have no idea what is going on lol. When it comes to contract negotiation they don’t think of it as a $ they think of it as a % Of the cap.

as for how you think contracts work for various lengths please see post #1268 and Dubas’ quote. So for example let’s call the 3 x $13.5m contract 15.7% of the cap when it starts. 3 years later for as An example the cap has gone up by $9m and Matthews renegotiates, he’s probably going to feel he’s worth the same so a 3 year $14.915. That’s now 6 years @ $85,245,000, $14,207,500 AAV and a 16.5% cap hit. That’s almost at McDavids cap hit (16.7%) and it’s only 6 years, by the time you get the next two years in what Matthews is asking for is more than McDavid. But I think we all know when he’s 31 Matthews will finally take that 8 year contract and from what we have seen there will be no discounts for what might be some garbage years at the end.

i don’t know why you keep posting like you are adding anything to the discussion. You are derailing the conversation with all the thing you don’t understand.

And what if he gets injured or declines? Is he still getting the max cap then?

On a third contract, you underpay at the start and overpay at the end. If the player declines you live with it because you got a discount at the start.

On a shorter contract, you’re not paying for a players decline, so the cap hit is higher. Everyone has an age they decline at.

An 8 year deal today takes Matthews to 34, a 34 year old Matthews is probably not going to be as good as Matthews is today.

You for some reason are under the impression the Leafs have to sign him to an 8 year contract at a ridiculous cap hit that takes him until he’s 37 if he signs for 3 years now, they don’t. That’s the teams advantage for the three year contract, they either have the option to get a declining player at a lower hit or walk away. Also, with Matthews wrist, an 8 year deal is risky. He’s had like 4 straight seasons of wrist issues and surgery. I understand why a team would want short term, don’t understand why Matthews would agree to it. But if they compromise on it, you have to pay for the short term during a third contract.

You’re also confusing McDavid’s RFA contracts with Matthews UFA. Yes, as a 21 year old you want an 8 year deal because you’ll have them locked up for their whole prime. However, at 29, an 8 year deal is diminishing returns. Almost every 8 year deal ages badly near the end. The Leafs are already going through it with Tavares decline. I’m sure the team would have loved to sign Tavares for 3 years instead of 7, but usually you can’t convince a player to do that in their prime. The same with how no one wanted Karlsson at 11.5M, every player declines and a players prime is usually in their mid 20’s.

 

[Mr Positive]

And what if he gets injured or declines? Is he still getting the max cap then?

On a third contract, you underpay at the start and overpay at the end. If the player declines you live with it because you got a discount at the start.

On a shorter contract, you’re not paying for a players decline, so the cap hit is higher. Everyone has an age they decline at.

An 8 year deal today takes Matthews to 34, a 34 year old Matthews is probably not going to be as good as Matthews is today.

You for some reason are under the impression the Leafs have to sign him to an 8 year contract at a ridiculous cap hit that takes him until he’s 37 if he signs for 3 years now, they don’t. That’s the teams advantage for the three year contract, they either have the option to get a declining player at a lower hit or walk away. Also, with Matthews wrist, an 8 year deal is risky. He’s had like 4 straight seasons of wrist issues and surgery. I understand why a team would want short term, don’t understand why Matthews would agree to it. But if they compromise on it, you have to pay for the short term during a third contract.

You’re also confusing McDavid’s RFA contracts with Matthews UFA. Yes, as a 21 year old you want an 8 year deal because you’ll have them locked up for their whole prime. However, at 29, an 8 year deal is diminishing returns. Almost every 8 year deal ages badly near the end. The Leafs are already going through it with Tavares decline. I’m sure the team would have loved to sign Tavares for 3 years instead of 7, but usually you can’t convince a player to do that in their prime. The same with how no one wanted Karlsson at 11.5M, every player declines and a players prime is usually in their mid 20’s.

For elite players, I'd say that 34 is still in the prime, and besides, with the cap growth between now and then, the cap percentage goes down every year. I'd say that in 8 years from now, if Matthews signed a 1 year extension, it might be a higher cap hit just because the cap standard would have risen so much.

I would say that perhaps there is a smart play here if they sign a 3 year deal. They could follow it up with an 8 year deal with some real salary decline in the last 3 years of that deal because that is the 35+ years. Even with 3 years of cap growth, perhaps the cap hit could be even lower on that 8 year deal than this 3 year deal's AAV

I discount the injury thing. It's not so concerning that the Leafs would hesitate with term. Teams generally roll the dice in that case.

 

[Seanaconda]

For elite players, I'd say that 34 is still in the prime, and besides, with the cap growth between now and then, the cap percentage goes down every year. I'd say that in 8 years from now, if Matthews signed a 1 year extension, it might be a higher cap hit just because the cap standard would have risen so much.

I would say that perhaps there is a smart play here if they sign a 3 year deal. They could follow it up with an 8 year deal with some real salary decline in the last 3 years of that deal because that is the 35+ years. Even with 3 years of cap growth, perhaps the cap hit could be even lower on that 8 year deal than this 3 year deal's AAV

I discount the injury thing. It's not so concerning that the Leafs would hesitate with term. Teams generally roll the dice in that case.

34 the prime ??? I'd say for elite players they are still elite at 34 but prime is 24 -32 maybe

 

[Seanaconda]

For elite players, I'd say that 34 is still in the prime, and besides, with the cap growth between now and then, the cap percentage goes down every year. I'd say that in 8 years from now, if Matthews signed a 1 year extension, it might be a higher cap hit just because the cap standard would have risen so much.

I would say that perhaps there is a smart play here if they sign a 3 year deal. They could follow it up with an 8 year deal with some real salary decline in the last 3 years of that deal because that is the 35+ years. Even with 3 years of cap growth, perhaps the cap hit could be even lower on that 8 year deal than this 3 year deal's AAV

I discount the injury thing. It's not so concerning that the Leafs would hesitate with term. Teams generally roll the dice in that case.

Leafs have to go with him like it or not.

or they rebuild imo. Putting their bets into McDavid being the next Tavares is a terrible strategy

 

[Guttersniped]

Covid did not 'depress salaries'. The cap only went up since Covid, at the worst of it, it stayed still. You're acting like the cap went down.

All Covid did was stop salaries from rising as fast because the cap barely went up (but it went up nonetheless).

Salaries being 'depressed' seems like a weak argument an owner might make. How the hell is the salary cap only going up, but salaries are going down. There's 0 logic behind it.

Also, there wasn't that many 10M players signed because there's not that many 10M+ players in the league. Not because Covid lowered salaries or something. Those top players are now going to be re-signed. I imagine McDavid, Draisaitl, Matthews and Marner push up the cap again.

I repeat, the cap today is the highest it's ever been in NHL history - why on earth would salaries be down?

If we're claiming Matthews was asking 13.5M X 8 and now, with more accolades, he's happy with 13.5M X 3 - shorter term is usually more expensive for the team, then it's a discount relative to his last ask.

Either Dubas was a terrible negotiator, or Matthews has decided to take a discount relative to his past based on the argument you were making. Stop with the 'depressed salaries on a cap that only went up' nonsense.

Yes it did? Cap space disappeared because UFAs and RFAs needed to be paid more. That’s why players were being dumped, bought out or let go.

GMs had planned for the big future cap jump, that’s why there were those mega platform bridge deals for higher end RFAs that ended with a giant qualifying offer.

Those were a new fad that blew up in GMs faces so much that they stopped allowing giant QO in the 2020 NHL MOU that modified the CBA.

Top stars were starting to get over +10m and then that stopped for 2 years. UFA prices very much went down.

I remember a good article in 2020-21 that broke up the overall money spent on UFA salaries by position. IIRC goalie contracts didn’t go down much (because there were so few & they got signed first), but defenseman took a hit (there were a lot of them and teams stopped paying a ridiculous premium for them like they usually did) and wingers got absolutely crushed. I don’t remember what exactly happened to centers other than wingers had it much worse.

I tried to google up the article, but couldn’t find it, and I also realized I don’t know why I’m the only one bringing any factual information to this conversation.

If you don’t remember all those defensemen and wingers signing cheap 1-2 year deals in 2020-21, I can’t help you. Why do you think Pietrangelo only got 8m? Because he has the same market value as Trouba?

You don’t remember how much the UFA market sucked before COVID? We’ll get ready for it to be 2016 all over again when the cap gets high enough again. It will simply take a few years.

You care a lot more about how Matthews’ motives are perceived than I do. I thought he was bit mercenary in 2019 and then COVID made the contract a real bear for Toronto because, yes, salaries dropped a bit when the cap froze.

But the system is set up so stars are woefully underpaid, considering they drive the business, and for fans to root against them getting paid. I find it icky to root for owners, but I do want my team to have a good cap situation (I’m complicated that way).

And finally, why would a shorter term be more expensive here? He’s a 25 year old superstar. They aren’t going to pay him more for 1) the chance to lose him in 3 years and/or less future cost certainty 2) the chance to have to give him a raise in 3 years in a deal that ends when he’s 36.

The Leaf want Matthews until he’s 33. I would think Matthews might want 8 years too, he’s not been the healthiest guy, but maybe he’s not someone who feels the need for the security of a long term deal.

 

[Divine]

For elite players, I'd say that 34 is still in the prime, and besides, with the cap growth between now and then, the cap percentage goes down every year. I'd say that in 8 years from now, if Matthews signed a 1 year extension, it might be a higher cap hit just because the cap standard would have risen so much.

I would say that perhaps there is a smart play here if they sign a 3 year deal. They could follow it up with an 8 year deal with some real salary decline in the last 3 years of that deal because that is the 35+ years. Even with 3 years of cap growth, perhaps the cap hit could be even lower on that 8 year deal than this 3 year deal's AAV

I discount the injury thing. It's not so concerning that the Leafs would hesitate with term. Teams generally roll the dice in that case.

34 is definitely not the prime. They might still be good players, but definitely not in their prime and rarely are they worth their cap hit at that age.

Look at Tavares (31), Toews (35 - UFA), Kane (34, UFA) - no team is signing up to pay them their last cap hit. Even Karlsson wasn’t willing to find someone to take him at 11.5M, and he’s 33 coming off a 101 point season.

For an 8 year contract at this point, there’s a good chance you’re overpaying at the end and their next contract will be a significant decline, if they’re even in the league by then.

That’s probably why Matthews wants 3 years instead of 4 or 5. He’s worried about getting max cap for term when he’s 30 or 31.

If you can lock up a player for only their prime and get a replacement with the cap space when they start declining, it’s something worth pursuing. However, it’s rare because almost every player wants a max contract in his UFA years, Matthews seems to be the only exception.

 

[TS Quint]

And what if he gets injured or declines? Is he still getting the max cap then?

On a third contract, you underpay at the start and overpay at the end. If the player declines you live with it because you got a discount at the start.

On a shorter contract, you’re not paying for a players decline, so the cap hit is higher. Everyone has an age they decline at.

An 8 year deal today takes Matthews to 34, a 34 year old Matthews is probably not going to be as good as Matthews is today.

You for some reason are under the impression the Leafs have to sign him to an 8 year contract at a ridiculous cap hit that takes him until he’s 37 if he signs for 3 years now, they don’t. That’s the teams advantage for the three year contract, they either have the option to get a declining player at a lower hit or walk away. Also, with Matthews wrist, an 8 year deal is risky. He’s had like 4 straight seasons of wrist issues and surgery. I understand why a team would want short term, don’t understand why Matthews would agree to it. But if they compromise on it, you have to pay for the short term during a third contract.

You’re also confusing McDavid’s RFA contracts with Matthews UFA. Yes, as a 21 year old you want an 8 year deal because you’ll have them locked up for their whole prime. However, at 29, an 8 year deal is diminishing returns. Almost every 8 year deal ages badly near the end. The Leafs are already going through it with Tavares decline. I’m sure the team would have loved to sign Tavares for 3 years instead of 7, but usually you can’t convince a player to do that in their prime. The same with how no one wanted Karlsson at 11.5M, every player declines and a players prime is usually in their mid 20’s.

You think there was anything restricted about McDavid or Matthews contracts ? Other than the restriction McDavid put on himself there were no restrictions. Matthews took the Leafs to the cleaners. Matthews is going to do it again and again one more time. The Leafs have shown no backbone and no negotiation skills to this point. There is no reason to expect any in the future. The Leafs will continue to overpay. You just seem hopeful your team is going to win a bet that he’s going to get injured and finally, maybe one of these short, high dollar contracts is going to pay off. Congrats you are now hoping to overpay and have a broken star at the end of the day. Or he can be healthy and continue to take up too much space to build a real Cup contender. Win Win?

 

[bert]

Really? Darnell Nurse must hate Edmonton then, along with most of the team.

I thought it was guaranteed the rest of the team takes a discount if McDavid did? He would set the example right? If he takes one then everyone else is guaranteed to - that's the narrative we're following?

McDavid allegedly took a discount
Draisaitl didn't (was considered overpaid at the time, 8.5M for a player who was never PPG)
Nurse didn't
Campbell didn't
Puljujarvi didn't
Yamamoto didn't
Hyman didn't
Kane didn't (went to FA assuming he could get more, realized Edmonton was the highest bidder)
Ceci didn't
Kulak didn't
Skinner didn't

The idea of taking a 'discount' only seems to work in low tax states for some reason.

Atleast he signed for 8 years. So did Mcdavid, your guys wont do it. What do the rest of those players have to do with stars that eat up such a large cap number.

 

[Divine]

You think there was anything restricted about McDavid or Matthews contracts ? Other than the restriction McDavid put on himself there were no restrictions. Matthews took the Leafs to the cleaners. Matthews is going to do it again and again one more time. The Leafs have shown no backbone and no negotiation skills to this point. There is no reason to expect any in the future. The Leafs will continue to overpay. You just seem hopeful your team is going to win a bet that he’s going to get injured and finally, maybe one of these short, high dollar contracts is going to pay off. Congrats you are now hoping to overpay and have a broken star at the end of the day. Or he can be healthy and continue to take up too much space to build a real Cup contender. Win Win?

You're arguing with your own thoughts now. I can't help you.

Atleast he signed for 8 years. So did Mcdavid, your guys wont do it. What do the rest of those players have to do with stars that eat up such a large cap number.

I bet you most Edmonton fans wish Nurse signed for 3 years instead of 8.

 

[Martin Skoula]

For elite players, I'd say that 34 is still in the prime, and besides, with the cap growth between now and then, the cap percentage goes down every year. I'd say that in 8 years from now, if Matthews signed a 1 year extension, it might be a higher cap hit just because the cap standard would have risen so much.

I would say that perhaps there is a smart play here if they sign a 3 year deal. They could follow it up with an 8 year deal with some real salary decline in the last 3 years of that deal because that is the 35+ years. Even with 3 years of cap growth, perhaps the cap hit could be even lower on that 8 year deal than this 3 year deal's AAV

I discount the injury thing. It's not so concerning that the Leafs would hesitate with term. Teams generally roll the dice in that case.

How’d that work out for Kane, Towes or Malkin? Caps a lot higher than when they signed their 8 year 3rd deals after a 5 year 1st deal. Looks like they’re making a lot less and have one foot out the door to retirement already.

 

[North Cole]

You're arguing with your own thoughts now. I can't help you.



I bet you most Edmonton fans wish Nurse signed for 3 years instead of 8.

No we don't. Stop trying to use fiction to justify your opinion of your own players contract talks.

 

[Divine]

No we don't. Stop trying to use fiction to justify your opinion of your own players contract talks.

You might not, some people (like yourself) might enjoy 8 years of Darnell Nurse being paid more than Makar.

Stop trying to use your own opinion to speak for others. Should we start a poll to get some objective opinions?

 

[Seanaconda]

You're arguing with your own thoughts now. I can't help you.



I bet you most Edmonton fans wish Nurse signed for 3 years instead of 8.

Actually no not really kinda right now because the cap was stagnant but because it's 8 years his 1.5 - 2 mill overpay will be fine as the cap rises

 

[Divine]

Actually no not really kinda right now because the cap was stagnant but because it's 8 years his 1.5 - 2 mill overpay will be fine as the cap rises

You could say that about anyone. Using that same logic why don’t the Leafs sign Matthews at 8 years X 15M because maybe by the end it’s not as big of an overpay.

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

You might not, some people (like yourself) might enjoy 8 years of Darnell Nurse being paid more than Makar.

Stop trying to use your own opinion to speak for others. Should we start a poll to get some objective opinions?

You’re the furthest thing from objective. Leafs are GOOD. Non Leafs bad.

 

[Divine]

You’re the furthest thing from objective. Leafs are GOOD. Non Leafs bad.

I didn’t say I was objective.

I said we can start a poll for an objective response. I won’t even vote in it just to make you happy.

Would you prefer Nurse sign a 9.25M X 3 contract or a 9.25M x 8 contract?

Personally, I prefer the 8 year one because it handicaps the Oilers, but maybe Oilers fans love it. I’m open to being surprised.

 

[GCK]

327 days until July 1st. Lots of time to continue haggling.

 

[Seanaconda]

You might not, some people (like yourself) might enjoy 8 years of Darnell Nurse being paid more than Makar.

Stop trying to use your own opinion to speak for others. Should we start a poll to get some objective opinions?

Makar was signing his first rfa contract . Every team in the league wants Makar on his contract I don't see your point.

Do you wish you had McDavid or drai on your team? Or any player?

You could say that about anyone. Using that same logic why don’t the Leafs sign Matthews at 8 years X 15M because maybe by the end it’s not as big of an overpay.

Yes I think they would and should if they can.

Far better contract than 13.5 x 3 (for the Leafs I can't see matthews signing it. )

 

[Divine]

Makar was signing his first rfa contract . Every team in the league wants Makar on his contract I don't see your point.

Do you wish you had McDavid or drai on your team? Or any player?


Yes I think they would and should if they can

Yeah of course I wish the Leafs also had McDavid and Drai, why wouldn’t I?

Well, me and you disagree there. I’m sure they can sign Matthews to a 15M x 8 contract today if they wanted to. Remember, Matthews wanted 8 years on his last contract also, his camp asked for 8 at a higher cap hit but the Leafs said no and lowered the term to reduce the cap hit.

So clearly, not everyone thinks 8 years is the best regardless of salary.

 

[Seanaconda]

Yeah of course I wish the Leafs also had McDavid and Drai, why wouldn’t I?

Well, me and you disagree there. I’m sure they can sign Matthews to a 15M x 8 contract today if they wanted to. Remember, Matthews wanted 8 years on his last contract also, his camp asked for 8 at a higher cap hit but the Leafs said no and lowered the term to reduce the cap hit.

So clearly, not everyone thinks 8 years is the best regardless of salary.

If they signed him for 8 your would probably have him for 3 more years at 12 ish million . Or 13.5 and not be crying about how you don't have any negotiating power ..


Imo if he goes 3 year or less extentions you're not winning a cup with him unless you hit on some kucherov level talent in the later rounds.

I Said would you want drai or McDavid because you Said wouldn't you want makar on his contract and no shit any sane fan wants makar on his contract .