Nor do I believe they have much intention on keeping many of the earlier picks that could eventually add to that group, that would take too long. To me it looks like they are going to continue to build-up the Panarin age grouping while subtracting from the 7-10 year younger Kakko/Chytil grouping.
That's my concern. I feel like what the letter promised was a rebuild around a Chytil/Kravtsov/Kakko/2020 FRP age group. I believed in that vision and still believe that THIS age group is the one that can win us a Cup or multiple Cups. This age group would include Fox, Miller, DeAngelo, Lundkvist, Hajek, Rykov, Robertson, and Jones. It might or might not include Lias Andersson, Karl Henricksson, Morgan Barron, Levi Aaltonen. It obviously includes Shesterkin.
I was 1000% behind the Panarin signing last summer. Panarin entering his age 28 season with low NHL mileage to me looked like a player (and was supported by the Athletic's statistical projections) that would remain a top - line player, in terms of ability and production, until the very, very end of that 7 year deal. In fact, the projection even appeared that he might warrant an additional contract as either remaining a top-line player at age 36, or, maybe a reduced role contract similar to an aging Marian Gaborik for the Kings. The thought process was, being a literal top 5 or top 10 player on the planet, Panarin is the superstar overpayment, the near-Sidney Crosby talent we've chased since Jagr, who will carry the team now while it matures, still be a star when it's ready to compete, and possibly even still be a first line player as they win Cups. But the worst case scenario would be, Panarin is an excellent supplement to the TRUE core of Chytil/Kravtsov/Kakko/2020 FRP.
Zibanejad was an odd fit to this vision in my estimation. Actually younger than Panarin, but I don't know if he projects to retain his ability as long as Panarin does. Of course, since the 2019-20 season began, Mika has taken steps that has really moved the needle toward "Elite center" that would give you some hope he could also be a highly-producing veteran to that "Kakko-led core."
A guy like Trouba I did not really see as a fit for this core, this vision. He was also a bit older (similar to Zibanejad), but unlike Zibanejad who is entering elite territory at a vital position where we do not have other, younger options currently, Trouba plays a less-important position where we have literally tons of other options. But at the price tag it cost to acquire Trouba, I signed off on the trade. Pionk and a 20th pick just seemed like too good value for him as an asset, and I could live with an exception to the "core vision" I had if we were deploying Trouba as a shepherd for our young defensemen assets. But I did not anticipate that Trouba in 5-6-7 years will be a Trouba I want to continue to have around, as compared to that I suspect I will want to have Panarin still around.
But now Kreider is also brought aboard for the long term. And now there is talk about Strome, about Fast. These guys are not in the same stratosphere as Panarin or even Zibanejad when looking at their combination of age and projected ability going forward.
I'm legitimately concerned, because if they are gearing up to win with a Kreider-Panarin-Zibanejad core, then that NECESSARILY drains assets that could be supplementing the Kakko-led core. But at the same time, I do not think a Kreider-Panarin-Zibanejad core has enough to win anything substantial without the maturation of the Kakk0-led core to near-star status.
To me, Kreider was a very obvious Mendoza line. He was the oldest of this group of potential exceptions to the Kakko-core. He was the least productive, at least of the forwards, of the potential exceptions to the Kakko-core. And, as a Power Forward, historically quickly declining as a position, he seemed the most likely to not retain his current level of production as well, which was, again, already behind Ziba and Panarin.
So to me, that is where the cut off had to occur. We traded some future for some present with Panarin (because obviously without Panarin, we are like a bottom-5 team and therefore a top-5 pick). We traded some future for some present with Trouba... I didn't love it, but given that Staal and Smith were on the way out, I was ok with having one veteran presence back there on the blue line when the trade cost was cheap. And it makes sense projecting forward that at age 29, we extend Mika as well, cause he's a legit 1C at this point, and you simply cannot let those guys go.
Kreider doesn't fit any of those categorizations. He's valuable but not irreplaceable, he's unique but not a unicorn, he's a winger not a center, he's a top six player but not really a lock as a first liner, especially moving forward. And he was gonna cost a lot of money. That's where the cut had to occur.
Well, they chose that they didn't want to live without him. By doing so, they absolutely have consciously decided that they want to be able to "compete" next year and the year after, whereas my approach would have meant probably waiting till that second or maybe even third year. They've moved up the clock probably a full two seasons.
Why they felt this pressure, I do not know. Maybe they felt they "could," since they had won the Kakko derby. Maybe they felt his selection insulates them from ever being short on top-end talent in their top 6. I can see why they might feel like they have an embarassment of riches in comparison to their 2014-15 teams, because if Kakko-Kravtsov-Chytil pan out, they certainly will have more forward talent than those Cup contender teams.
But, on the other hand, they do not really have enough to compare favorably with the Lightning, Penguins, etc, historically. Dynasty teams and Cup Contenders built on their forward cores tend to have more top-6 caliber players than we either have or have in the pipeline. It's not impossible that we can still win this way, but it has become SIGNIFICANTLY harder to acquire the pieces I think we will need to have a multi-multi year run of league dominance.
We will have to get more creative and we will probably have to lose at least one additional player that we would prefer not to lose at sometime during the Kreider contract, absent the cap REALLY taking off (which is possible).
So we'll see.
I'm still bullish on the Rangers as a whole, and they are gonna be a good team. But I bought into and still buy into that they could have (maybe still can) assembled a great team. I hope that ship hasn't sailed.
