Value of: Kovacevic

[Guffman]

Given several teams needing defencemen, it probably makes sense for a non-playoff team to trade assets into this hot market.

I am curious what everyone thinks of Kovacevic. He was a former Jets third round prospect that the Jets discarded to waivers because he couldn’t beat out Kyle Capobianco for the #8 popcorn munching D-spot. This 6’5” behemoth RHD proceeded to play over 17 minutes/game last year and now averages over 18 minutes/game this season. I heard some local fans suggest he’s definitely worth a second round pick, perhaps even a first round pick.

The Athletic has run a recent article creating player cards for each skater and ascribing a market value. Specifically, they said:

That value is according to Net Rating, our all-in-one player value stat that’s based on each player’s Offensive and Defensive Rating. The card showcases all the stats that determine how strong each player’s ratings are on and off the puck, a weighted combination of their production (goals, assists, expected goals, blocks, penalty differential) and their play-driving (on-ice expected and actual goal stats). It also shows each player’s market value based on their on-ice value.

The player card for Kovacevic gives him an offensive and defensive rating in the 31% and 17% percentile. Troubling, his defensive xGoals is at a 5% percentile and penalty kill is at a 4% percentile.

The player card concludes that Kovacevic’s market value is $800,000 (which is what he is getting paid, so no surplus or deficit value).

Do you think these player cards are accurate or does that fail the “eye test”? What value would you attribute to Kovacevic for trade compensation for a needy team?

Click to read more...

 

[Lockin17]

People will offer 3rd rd pick ,, Rather keep him

 

[Mrfenn92]

Unless a overpayment which I can’t see, no reason for Montreal to move him

 

[Chose]

Yeah, we love Kovy much. He's perfect for his role.
Until our young guns grow, we should keep him here.
And we might keep him even then, he'd be the perfect 6th.

 

[Guffman]

Unless a overpayment which I can’t see, no reason for Montreal to move him

What’s considered an overpayment? Curious what everyone’s take is on his appropriate market value.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

i dont think teams would offer much hes more valuable to the Habs imo

 

[Mrfenn92]

What’s considered an overpayment? Curious what everyone’s take is on his appropriate market value.

I’ll guess a second

 

[Jamaican Patty]

2 second round picks

 

[Guffman]

I’ll guess a second

2 second round picks

Is that the trade value for someone assessed to be worth an $800,000* player? Seems like a MASSIVE reach. What are you two remotely basing that on if not any statistics/on-ice value?

* That value is according to Net Rating, our all-in-one player value stat that’s based on each player’s Offensive and Defensive Rating. The card showcases all the stats that determine how strong each player’s ratings are on and off the puck, a weighted combination of their production (goals, assists, expected goals, blocks, penalty differential) and their play-driving (on-ice expected and actual goal stats). It also shows each player’s market value based on their on-ice value.

 

[Moose Head]

What’s considered an overpayment? Curious what everyone’s take is on his appropriate market value.

Well the habs traded a worse dman, Kulak, for a 2nd, 7th and Laggeson (7th dman/AHL tweener) at the deadline a couple of years back. Kulak was also an UFA to be and Kovacevic is signed for one more year at 760k. That was an overpayment. I’d expect better than that otherwise not worth the trouble. So a 2nd plus a B prospect at the deadline or 2nd plus a 3rd.

 

[Guffman]

Well the habs traded a worse dman, Kulak, for a 2nd, 7th and Laggeson (7th dman/AHL tweeter). at the deadline a couple of years back. Kulak was also an UFA to be and Kovacevic is signed for one more year at 760k. That was an overpayment. At expect better than that otherwise not worth the trouble. So a 2nd plus a B prospect at the deadline or 2nd plus a 3rd.

That's interesting logic. Thank you for sharing.

 

[Mike Jones]

A lot probably depends on the timing and the need. I'd guess a 3rd but, depending on the situation, a 2nd could be possible too.

 

[John Mandalorian]

His value is likely more than a lot may think. Teams are desperate for RD. And his lower salary is adding to his trade value.

 

[Jamaican Patty]

Is that the trade value for someone assessed to be worth an $800,000* player? Seems like a MASSIVE reach. What are you two remotely basing that on if not any statistics/on-ice value?

* That value is according to Net Rating, our all-in-one player value stat that’s based on each player’s Offensive and Defensive Rating. The card showcases all the stats that determine how strong each player’s ratings are on and off the puck, a weighted combination of their production (goals, assists, expected goals, blocks, penalty differential) and their play-driving (on-ice expected and actual goal stats). It also shows each player’s market value based on their on-ice value.

Position, RHD, size, contract, age & play. All that warrants 2 second round picks. Jets messed up here.

 

[Steve Shutt]

Big 6'5, 223 lb
Affordable $766,667x2 Cap
Plays RD
Young at 26
100+ NHL games of experience
Lots of other injuries on D (Savard, Harris, Xhekaj, Wideman)
No one in the minors ready to replace him

No need to move him this early in the season. Maybe if our D gets healthy and we have a logjam but I'd keep him for sure unless we're taking back a bad contract Dmen like Myers and getting well paid to do it

 

[mattyboy]

Habs are going to trade Savard before Kovy due to better return.

 

[Guffman]

Position, RHD, size, contract, age & play. All that warrants 2 second round picks. Jets messed up here.

According to The Athletic player card, his play is atrocious and his salary market value is deemed to be $800,000. Two second round picks? You serious lol?

Dang, I wonder what the Jets could get for Logan "Stanimal" Stanley? He's younger and bigger than Kovacevic with only a $1M contract and RFA status next year. Two first round picks?? I would settle for one and a B prospect.

 

[Jamaican Patty]

According to The Athletic player card, his play is atrocious and his salary market value is deemed to be $800,000. Two second round picks? You serious lol?

Dang, I wonder what the Jets could get for Logan "Stanimal" Stanley? He's younger and bigger than Kovacevic with only a $1M contract and RFA status next year. Two first round picks?? I would settle for one and a B prospect.

And why do we care about the Athletic? Do you think GMs use the Athletic to figure out value for a player?

 

[Guffman]

And why do we care about the Athletic? Do you think GMs use the Athletic to figure out value for a player?

The Pro Hockey Group rates him as a third pairing defenceman.

The Athletic provides this statistical analysis of Kovacevic:

I dunno... that's a lot of negatives and low percentile rankings, which seems to justify a market value of $800,000.

What do you think GMs use to figure out his value? Jets GM didn't think much of him, which is why he was waived. Statistical analysis suggests he's not very good. Perhaps explain why YOU think he's worth two 2nd round picks? What exactly are you basing it on? Anything?

 

[Jamaican Patty]

The Pro Hockey Group rates him as a third pairing defenceman.

The Athletic provides this statistical analysis of Kovacevic:

View attachment 775520

I dunno... that's a lot of negatives and low percentile rankings, which seems to justify a market value of $800,000.

What do you think GMs use to figure out his value? Jets GM didn't think much of him, which is why he was waived. Statistical analysis suggests he's not very good. Perhaps explain why YOU think he's worth two 2nd round picks? What exactly are you basing it on? Anything?

I already did.

What do you think is his value?

 

[nhlfan9191]

The Pro Hockey Group rates him as a third pairing defenceman.

The Athletic provides this statistical analysis of Kovacevic:

View attachment 775520

I dunno... that's a lot of negatives and low percentile rankings, which seems to justify a market value of $800,000.

What do you think GMs use to figure out his value? Jets GM didn't think much of him, which is why he was waived. Statistical analysis suggests he's not very good. Perhaps explain why YOU think he's worth two 2nd round picks? What exactly are you basing it on? Anything?

It seems like you created this thread to vindicate the Jets putting Kovy on waivers. You got your answer from several posters. He’s worth more to the Habs then in a trade so if a team was interested, be prepared to pay above market value for a depth defenseman.

 

[TS Quint]

He’s already doing his job at the NHL level. He fills out a roster spot on a rebuilding team. Habs should keep him for the next 5 years as they rebuild.

 

[Chose]

Nice article on him a few months back:

Canadiens Defenceman Kovacevic Shouldn’t Be Ignored

When the Montreal Canadiens acquired Johnathan Kovacevic off waivers from the Winnipeg Jets, the hope was that he could act as a bandaid solution to a blueline that lacked depth. Fast forward to the end of the year, and not only has Kovacevic handled himself with aplomb, he quickly established...

montrealhockeynow.com

 

[Lockin17]

What’s considered an overpayment? Curious what everyone’s take is on his appropriate market value.

I would say the same value that got Kulak traded to the Oilers

 

[Xirik]

Kovacevic is copasetic