Kings Prospect #7

[CNS]

Even 10 is generous, IMO. Kitsyn has shown nothing since a solid but unspectacular half season in OHL. Since then he has bounced around Russia not ever finding a spot. He is the benefit of recent hype with him coming across the Atlantic, IMO. Jury is still out on whether he is a legitimate prospect or not. We'll see in the next 2 seasons here in NA. He would be around 13-15 for me.

I said this too and I believe people got mad at me for saying it. Yet it's so true. But I think Kitsyn at 10 is fair. I did a top 10 list with a full writeup (longish paragraph) on my top 10. Looking at the honorable mentions I have, I don't think I'd have any of them over him. But he certainly can fall down my list with a bad year this year.

 

[tigermask48]

I said this too and I believe people got mad at me for saying it. Yet it's so true. But I think Kitsyn at 10 is fair. I did a top 10 list with a full writeup (longish paragraph) on my top 10. Looking at the honorable mentions I have, I don't think I'd have any of them over him. But he certainly can fall down my list with a bad year this year.

The issue with Kitsyn is that his style of play is clearly tailor made for a North American style of play, but the big question is whether it will translate to success at the NHL level and whether his development has been de-railed at this point with all the things he dealt with in the KHL. It really came across as no one having any idea how to use him and his skillset properly.

Kitsyn at 10 is fair, but I think Kitsyn at this spot like he is, is way overvaluing him. But to each their own and he's a Kings prospect so I hope I'm wrong.

 

[kingsfan]

And Prokhorkin played games in our system in the AHL and looked great. I'm sorry but the argument of playing vs men or being closest to NHL ready is something I just 100% think is wrong to judge prospects solely on.

To a point I agree, though I do factor it in slightly to my list as well. The whole point of a prospects list (to me anyways) is trying to figure out who has the best skillset combined with the best ability to use it in the NHL. Being closer to the NHL (especially when playing at a higher level of hockey, such as the AHL) makes it easier to decide if that skillset will translate to the NHL.

 

[tigermask48]

To a point I agree, though I do factor it in slightly to my list as well. The whole point of a prospects list (to me anyways) is trying to figure out who has the best skillset combined with the best ability to use it in the NHL. Being closer to the NHL (especially when playing at a higher level of hockey, such as the AHL) makes it easier to decide if that skillset will translate to the NHL.

True, I pretty much use it as a determining factor if I view more than one prospect as very close or similar in other categories. Basically use it as a tiebreaker, it's one of the reasons I have Vey high on my list yet Shore at 9. Very similar skillsets, similar upside, but Vey is much closer to the NHL and much more proven (right now, today.) I'll reserve the right to change this, if Shore looks better than Vey to start the year in Manchester.

 

[CNS]

To a point I agree, though I do factor it in slightly to my list as well. The whole point of a prospects list (to me anyways) is trying to figure out who has the best skillset combined with the best ability to use it in the NHL. Being closer to the NHL (especially when playing at a higher level of hockey, such as the AHL) makes it easier to decide if that skillset will translate to the NHL.

I totally understand and for me, the likelyhood I think they hit their potential is a big factor but judging prospects just based on closeness to NHL ready isn't fair at all. It discounts potential completely. And if two prospects were very close in rankings, then I would go by closer to NHL ready but only then.

 

[kingsfan]

I totally understand and for me, the likelyhood I think they hit their potential is a big factor but judging prospects just based on closeness to NHL ready isn't fair at all. It discounts potential completely. And if two prospects were very close in rankings, then I would go by closer to NHL ready but only then.

Yeah, if the sole criteria, or the main criteria is just closeness to the NHL, then I agree with you.

I mean 12 years ago, a guy like George Parros was more NHL ready than a guy like Mike Cammelleri for the respective roles, but to place Parros ahead of Cammy for that reason would seem a bit insane, to be polite.

 

[King'sPawn]

I totally understand and for me, the likelyhood I think they hit their potential is a big factor but judging prospects just based on closeness to NHL ready isn't fair at all. It discounts potential completely. And if two prospects were very close in rankings, then I would go by closer to NHL ready but only then.

I'm worried I might have been misunderstood in the past, so I wanted to clear it up.

While I do put more weight on closeness to NHL than potential, I certainly don't overlook potential. I try to use the same formula of "potential and likelihood to meet potential," but I think closeness to NHL suggest a higher likelihood to meet that potential.

But I also look at other factors, such as "if this player doesn't meet his potential, will he be effective in a lesser role?" Andreoff, for example, already shows potential as a bottom 6 player. Michael Mersch, for example, COULD top out as a 2nd line winger, but even if he doesn't, I think he would be effective as a 3rd or 4th liner. Similarly, Prokhorkin has a skillset and style of play where I think he could be effective in any line, and why he's high on my list.

Kitsyn, on the other hand, is a lot lower on my list. I know he has a strong body and very strong skills controlling the puck, but I get the feeling his trajectory is similar to Oscar Moller: if he's not in a scoring role, I don't think he will be effective as a 3rd/4th liner either. That's just the feeling I get, I am sure many will disagree with me, but I don't see him as a regular player in any role.

For Zykov, where we contend the most, I just have to see more of him. I think he plays a very instinctive game akin to Toffoli, and he has a stocky build, but I need to actually watch him develop to have a better sense of where he would rank amongst the prospects. It may not be fair, but I try to subdue my expectations of a prospect that's freshly drafted. That's where his potential might take a bit of a hit from me.

I know you don't agree, and I certainly respect your opinion (as well as everyone else's), but I simply wanted to clear the air of my thought process. Hope that makes sense.

 

[kingsfan]

You raise a good point Kings Pawn. Some posters haven't had an opportunity to see some of the newer guys such as Zykov.

It's unfair to ask they to properly rate them (assuming they aren't) when they haven't had a chance to assess them themselves.

I mean the kid could be the next Bure for all we know but if you haven't seen him but are very familiar with a guy like Andreoff, it makes sense to pick Andy over Zykov, even if those who have seen both players don't necessarily agree.

 

[CNS]

I'm worried I might have been misunderstood in the past, so I wanted to clear it up.

While I do put more weight on closeness to NHL than potential, I certainly don't overlook potential. I try to use the same formula of "potential and likelihood to meet potential," but I think closeness to NHL suggest a higher likelihood to meet that potential.

But I also look at other factors, such as "if this player doesn't meet his potential, will he be effective in a lesser role?" Andreoff, for example, already shows potential as a bottom 6 player. Michael Mersch, for example, COULD top out as a 2nd line winger, but even if he doesn't, I think he would be effective as a 3rd or 4th liner. Similarly, Prokhorkin has a skillset and style of play where I think he could be effective in any line, and why he's high on my list.

Kitsyn, on the other hand, is a lot lower on my list. I know he has a strong body and very strong skills controlling the puck, but I get the feeling his trajectory is similar to Oscar Moller: if he's not in a scoring role, I don't think he will be effective as a 3rd/4th liner either. That's just the feeling I get, I am sure many will disagree with me, but I don't see him as a regular player in any role.

For Zykov, where we contend the most, I just have to see more of him. I think he plays a very instinctive game akin to Toffoli, and he has a stocky build, but I need to actually watch him develop to have a better sense of where he would rank amongst the prospects. It may not be fair, but I try to subdue my expectations of a prospect that's freshly drafted. That's where his potential might take a bit of a hit from me.

I know you don't agree, and I certainly respect your opinion (as well as everyone else's), but I simply wanted to clear the air of my thought process. Hope that makes sense.

I get what you're saying. I don't fully agree with it but I totally get it and see why people would think that way. We're just different. And that's fine.

You bring up something that I think is the big thing with a lot of people - not a lot of people really watch all the prospects play. That's why Forbort went so high. Period. I can't see any other reason as to why he's that high. I get that having not seen Zykov you'd be reluctant but the kid is an absolute gamer. I truly believe he's got 1st line potential and I think he's going to make it in the NHL all but guaranteed, even if it is in a lower role. The guy's puck possession and style of play would make for a fine 3rd liner. But he'll be oh so much more than that. If he doesn't have any road bumps and his development doesn't stall, he can score 30 goals in the NHL. Of course, there is no guarantee of that but his potential is just too high for me to not have him at number 2.

As for Kitsyn, I actually think his game would translate fine as a 3rd liner. I actually don't see him making it in the NHL as a top 6 forward. To me, I peg him as a 3rd liner. I've said it a lot before but I'll say it again - this year will be very telling. I'll be near Manchester (and I shouldn't hit at it but I may have a reason to go to a lot of games) so I'll try and provide as many updates as possible.

 

[kingsfan]

Kitsyn looks like a slightly smaller Handzus to me.