Post-Game Talk: Kings get Kyled by the Jets

[Mortimer Snerd]

My biggest gripe is with how long Buff and Wheeler stay out on their shifts in OT. I would like to put the blame on coaching since I think that they are excellent players, but I don't know if it's on the coach not giving directions or them not following them. Wheeler also has a tendency to force the play when carrying the puck deep instead of taking advantage of all the extra space that you have in 3 on 3.

If the coach is giving them directions which they are not following then it is on the coach for continuing to put them out there.

The same players have been successful at 3v3 in the past. I don't know what, if anything, has changed. I don't think it is simply the players sent out. It is the overlong shifts. They are failing to manage their changes properly. Didn't PMo say recently that they don't practice 3v3? It might be a good idea to start. Again, it is on coaching. If you do it right, it is a coin toss. If not, then your odds are less than 50/50.

 

[Aavco Cup]

5v5 OT in the regular season, no SO, no goal scored after 5 minutes the game is called a tie, in the playoffs OT is played 5v5 until there is a winner as it is now, pretty simple actually! Come on man!

May as well just go back to ties.....no OT in the reg season. Most would end that way anyway so why prolong the agony?

 

[Board Bard]

I was screaming at my screen when during OT Scheif-Wheels-Buff were more than 1 minute into their shift when they finally got posession of the puck and instead of going for a line change they went into the offensive zone for an offensive opportunity. Come on. You guys are already gassed on 1+ minute shift on OT and instead of making the safe play and go for a change you go for that play? That kind of selfish play has cost us points in OT. Maurice needs to bring the hammer down on this, if you are in OT and are over 35 seconds into your shift and have the possession of the puck, two guys need to make a change while one takes the puck back in the d zone behind the net. Wheeler is esp bad at staying out long on OT shifts.

Yeah, that was sickening. Then the typical thing happened, only to be salvaged by huge luck. All the previous examples have taught those guys, including Maurice, absolutely nothing.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It wasn’t a hard game for a goaltender though. He still makes me uneasy.

Maybe that game boosted his confidence a bit and he will be better next game as a result. I'm not confident in him yet but I'm not ready to give up on him yet either.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

started off with some butterflies in the first (rebounds) but was definately better as teh game progressed.

 

[Robinson2187]

Myers been bad a while. Liked Buffs game... He pinches.. It happens.. Ppl should be immune to that by now.

Exactly, like how people have become immune to the baby giraffe's yips

 

[garret9]

Tanev earned his spot tonight.

Since we now pretty much know Little is injured I don't understand why he is playing.

Just putting this out there sans context and whatnot, but worst relCorsi on the team that game...

 

[Guffman]

As a former goaltender i disagree with this as much as humanly and roboticly possible. Those are tough games for goalies... You want shots on you to keep you in the game... To keep you engaged. I give Comrie big time props for his play last night. Much easier to face 50 shots than it is to face 20

Wait a second... are you saying that allowing low shot quantity and low shot quality is a BAD thing because your goaltender might start daydreaming?

That’s going to make the Corsi Nerds go BALLASTIC if that concept ever gets traction.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

HAHAHAHAHAHA

Boston.

Incredible to look at now and realize that they could have had Barzal, Connor and Chabot just by taking the 3 players taken immediately after they finished their 3 picks.

 

[Guffman]

Comrie's a rookie with exactly two games of nhl seasoning. he SHOULD make you nervous.
he had a good first period. he wasn't to blame for the Kings' goal. he wasn't really to blame for the chance that Carter missed.
nothing else about his play made me nervous. the KID (23 months younger than Helle) did great. you could see how happy his teammates were for him when he won.

listen...the thing about the Jets is that we're at the tail end of our "draft and develop" plot, but there's still lots of development that's happening. Ehlers, Laine, Connor, Morrissey, Helle and you can toss Copp in there as well. then you toss in Roslovic, arguably Petan, and Comrie into it and you're still growing the team for the future. if that means an inconsequential loss or 4 during the year, what can you do? getting Comrie a few NHL starts means you're in the next stage of developing your assets, either for trade or for an NHL roster spot. right now, we're one Helle tweak away from having Comrie starting in the playoffs. think about that and then thank the lucky stars Comrie's getting some run and that he played a hell of a lot better than he did earlier in the year

I don’t mind at all giving Comrie games when we’re pretty much locked in our position and I do appreciate his inexperience. I would just be worried if we actually needed him for a game with meaning.

 

[Guffman]

Maybe that game boosted his confidence a bit and he will be better next game as a result. I'm not confident in him yet but I'm not ready to give up on him yet either.

Oh, it would be silly to give up on him. He still has time to develop so I agree with you.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Had to watch the PVR'd version of the game, crappy when you already know the score.

Shot that Laine took didn't look any worse than the shots Morrissey, Copp, Tanev or Gramps had been absorbing all season.

Howdy Doody looked okay!

Has Mo finally realized that Gramps absence from the lineup means diddly squat!

Don't know why you call that improvement diddly squat.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Just putting this out there sans context and whatnot, but worst relCorsi on the team that game...

Who, Tanev? Or Little?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

As a former goaltender i disagree with this as much as humanly and roboticly possible. Those are tough games for goalies... You want shots on you to keep you in the game... To keep you engaged. I give Comrie big time props for his play last night. Much easier to face 50 shots than it is to face 20

I agree with your point, but 50? Maybe but you are likely giving up 3-4.

How about 30-32 being easier than 17?

 

[Aavco Cup]

Who, Tanev? Or Little?

Only player with a negative Corsi was Tanev

CF2
CA3

 

[boanst]

Only the NHL would have different rules for OT between the regular season and the playoff's, pretty f'd up if you ask me!

Pretty sure a CFL or NFL playoff game wouldnt be permitted to end in a tie.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I came here to give him some props. Is it just me or is Tanev-Lowry-Armia probably one of the best 4th lines in the league? They forecheck hard, cycle well down low and generally just seem to not give opponents D any time/space. Tanev to me has been the surprise, I always thought he'd be a tweener, up and down from the minors, 13th forward kinda thing, I know 4th liner isnt much better than that but he is skating well and hitting everything in sight.

Whatta' ya' mean 'one of'? How many teams don't have a 3rd line that good? Which teams' 4th lines are as good?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Myers certainly has his flaws, but reading some of the posts here, you'd think he's total garbage.

Not total garbage. Good in the O zone. Scary in the D zone with the puck. Seems to take too long to make decisions and then makes the wrong one way too often.

 

[Dayofthedogs]

Yet, there are many nights where he looks like the best player on that line. He also has not been given as much powerplay time as some other young guys. Most promising players of his ilk on other teams are on their team's first pp unit.

He got quite a bit of PP time earlier this year...

Ehlers never played in the AHL. Looks like the best player on the team some night. And produces like a monster.

Contracts are about comparables. He hasn't earned a dime more than Ehlers or Chef.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeah, 2015 was an insane draft year in the first round, with many top-6 and top-4 talents to be found even in the latter half of the first round. 2012 though. Yeesh.

Interesting thing about the '12 draft is that there were a lot of good D men, even into the later rounds. A couple of good goalies. But apart from Forsberg and Galchenyuk (nothing really wrong with him except that he is not a C) there is precious little at forward.

'15 isn't finished yet. With another year or two of development there are going to be a lot more good players come out of that class. 51 players have played at least 1 NHL game so far. There will be more. Jets alone have 5 more prospects who will all probably get at least 1 game.

 

[Adam da bomb]

He got quite a bit of PP time earlier this year...

Ehlers never played in the AHL. Looks like the best player on the team some night. And produces like a monster.

Contracts are about comparables. He hasn't earned a dime more than Ehlers or Chef.

I think he would be super happy at 6 mil. I thought 5+ was problemmatic on the Jets. I thought Ehlers was too young to go to the A? Connor lucked out on no thorburn but has had a better rookie season than Ehlers. Either way it's not a competition I just wonder how Chevy manages the cap. Connor has two goals less than Boeser and probably less power play time.

 

[Dayofthedogs]

I think he would be super happy at 6 mil. I thought 5+ was problemmatic on the Jets. I thought Ehlers was too young to go to the A? Connor lucked out on no thorburn but has had a better rookie season than Ehlers. Either way it's not a competition I just wonder how Chevy manages the cap. Connor has two goals less than Boeser and probably less power play time.

He was too young to go to the AHL. Which would generally mean he is thought of as a better player. But mainly Ehlers had a longer NHL history to negotiate with.

I too am interested to see how Chevy handles this

 

[Adam da bomb]

There is nothing to argue with Ehlers has been great. Would like to have both but where will the cuts for cap space be I don't know.

He was too young to go to the AHL. Which would generally mean he is thought of as a better player. But mainly Ehlers had a longer NHL history to negotiate with.

I too am interested to see how Chevy handles this

ng

 

[Adam da bomb]

I wonder ppl who think little is still a 2c do you keep lanie on the 3rd line as ell does not work. Mo does not want to break up csw

 

[AlphaLackey]

Skill has a large component in it. I mean, you won't see Chiarot, Poolman, Tanev, Hendricks, Copp, etc. out over the likes of Little, Scheifele, Wheeler, Ehlers, Connor, Laine, Buff, Enstrom, Trouba, etc. However, this has more to do with their play 3v3 than it does their skill level. The Jets don't prioritise possession in 3v3, which leads to them losing more often than winning. The Athletic did a breakdown on their tendencies vs other teams, and found that the Jets prefer attacking the OZ in less than favourable odds than other teams, who prefer to double back and regroup in the NZ when they can't open up the DZ any.

Sure, there's obviously an element of skill, not only in personnel selection but in play skill. Don't be fooled by critics hell-bent on misrepresenting my position; all I've ever maintained is that this "element of skill" is so dwarfed by variance that it is *virtually* a coin toss; as in, flipping a coin to predict a winner will get results very close to any sort of skill-based metric assessment.

Consider this: In a full 60-minute game, the worst team on the road against the best team will still find themselves with about a 30% chance to win. If that is how big the "any given sunday" factor is in a full sixty minute game, it stands to reason that it has to be much bigger for a five-minute mini game which, after five minutes, is settled by a shootout which is even MORE of a virtual coin toss.

So yes, even if they're making mistakes, what is the cost of those mistakes? If these mistakes result in the Jets being an average of 11:10 underdogs over all their games that go to OT (say, by being 11:10 favorites against bad 3v3 teams, 11:10 down against average 3v3 teams and 6:5 down against good 3v3 teams), then so far those mistakes have added up to 2/3rds of a point in the standings.

Compare that to the apoplectic apocalyptic rants you see about how our futility is costing us (in this thread and elsewhere) and how many points (plural, apparently) we've pissed away by, allegedly, having a zero (or near-zero) chance of winning a game that goes to overtime.

Now, regarding your source: I don't have access to that Athletic article, but it seems you did. Did they make any effort to assess the expected impact of the Jets 3v3 decisions? If so, I'll happily plonk down for a subscription and read it myself.