Look at the NHL success rate of 2nd round picks. You have less than a 50% chance that the guy ends up playing a couple season's of NHL hockey. It's throwing darts at a board from 20 feet away. Ok, so he was their first pick. That's not inherently valuable. There's context. Hickey was a reach, and that was a wasted pick, even though he's gone on to play in over 300 games and counting. Cernak, or whoever they might've picked in the middle of the 2nd round if not him, is a shot in the dark. If that selection works out, that will only help you, but if there was a science to it, you wouldn't see as many missed picks by every team. You can pick between any 2 or 3 random guys in the 2nd round and get something, or nothing.