I did some stat digging, and I’m officially, cautiously optimistic about Kovalchuk.
Panarin, Jagr, and Radulov all experienced roughly a 10-15% stat decrease from the KHL to the NHL.
If Kovalchuk follows the same route, he should put up approx 30-30-60 over a full season, which would be massive. Absolutely massive for this team.
Panarin and Kovalchuk were teammates in 14/15, and had nearly identical stat lines. Panarin went to the NHL and immediately became a top forward in the league.
But that was three years ago, right? What about Kovalchuk now?
Well, he just had his statistically best KHL years back to back in 16/17 and 17/18, scoring at well over PPG.
Kovalchuk is still talented as hell. If he is dressed, he will be putting up numbers. Period.
The only thing that worries me is his health, straight up. The KHL is not as physical of a league as the NHL, and they don’t play as many games. That means Kovalchuk is in for an adjustment period in the NHL. It also means he doesn’t have as much raw game mileage on him.
Tl;dr, if Kovalchuk can stay healthy and play 70+ games, it’s very statistically likely he will post impressive numbers for us.
On to Voynov:
I said from day one that a conjoined Voynov/Kovalchuk signing made sense considering their recent history and our recent needs. I never thought in a million years Kovalchuk would actually sign with us, though. Now that he has, I’m convinced Voynov will be returning, too.
You can likely get Voynov on a very short, low AAV “prove it” penance deal given his legal troubles. $2 million AAV.
So with another legitimate top four defenseman in the mix, Muzzin/Martinez are definitely expendable, as is Phaneuf (if someone will take him).
You may be able to nab a guy like Skinner for a Muzzin package that doesn’t include Vilardi. If so, and if Voynov is indeed returning, are the Kings really not done?
Imagine if Rob Blake that mad lad actually signs Ilya Kovalchuk, re-signs Slava Voynov, and swings a deal for Jeff Skinner AND holds on to Gabe Vilardi while doing it?
I want to live in that timeline.