Player Discussion Kevin Hayes - Part II

[Krams]

Original thread: Player Discussion - Kevin Hayes

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[Larrybiv]

Only bad thing about continuation is........(and understandably so), is a lot of the conversation gets interrupted and nary a one is followed up on.

And i wont repeat myself......at least not knowingly. Lol

 

[CasusBelli]

Only bad thing about continuation is........(and understandably so), is a lot of the conversation gets interrupted and nary a one is followed up on.

And i wont repeat myself......at least not knowingly. Lol

To respond to your response to my post (that’s a mouthful) ...

I respectfully think it’s a mistake to include Z in a discussion about Hayes — starting with their roles and handedness. So I’m omitting Z from this post.

Regarding trading optimality, I applied game theory in another thread to show that all else equal, the conclusion of the trade deadline is the ideal time at which to deal a player (assuming no perfect substitute for him exists). The team owning the player should be aware of this fact and delay trades involving the player until that date (which is probably why many trades get executed at the final moments of the deadline). Rumors involving the player boost the appearance of demand for him and raise his value between now and then.

So, in short, it is in NY’s interest to create (or at least not combat) rumors that reflect heightened demand for the player and wait until the deadline to actually deal him.

 

[Larrybiv]

To respond to your response to my post (that’s a mouthful) ...

I respectfully think it’s a mistake to include Z in a discussion about Hayes — starting with their roles and handedness. So I’m omitting Z from this post.

Regarding trading optimality, I applied game theory in another thread to show that all else equal, the conclusion of the trade deadline is the ideal time at which to deal a player (assuming no perfect substitute for him exists). The team owning the player should be aware of this fact and delay trades involving the player until that date (which is probably why many trades get executed at the final moments of the deadline). Rumors involving the player boost the appearance of demand for him and raise his value between now and then.

So, in short, it is in NY’s interest to create (or at least not combat) rumors that reflect heightened demand for the player and wait until the deadline to actually deal him.

Guess that is WHY they call it a deadline.

 

[Ori]

I appreciate his time with us and I will miss him for sure, but sell high and take advantage of early picks in next summer draft!

 

[Larrybiv]

@RoarLionRoar I respectfully agree about trying not to derail a thread. Talking specifically about Zbad, "derails" a thread. Just kind of thinking that what i said was more about Gorton and "what if" that scenario happens to occur. It really is about Hayes though. Still.

 

[CasusBelli]

@RoarLionRoar I respectfully agree about trying not to derail a thread. Talking specifically about Zbad, "derails" a thread. Just kind of thinking that what i said was more about Gorton and "what if" that scenario happens to occur. It really is about Hayes though. Still.

I see what you mean; my mistake.

 

[haohmaru]

Gotta love NYR HF - clamoring for years about wanting a PPG Center, finally a guy is achieving that who's all of 25, and you want to send him packing and basically throw a dart at a dart board instead.

 

[East Coast Bias]

Gotta love NYR HF - clamoring for years about wanting a PPG Center, finally a guy is achieving that who's all of 25, and you want to send him packing and basically throw a dart at a dart board instead.

Not to nitpick, but he's 26 and will be 27 when he signs his next deal.

 

[haohmaru]

Not to nitpick, but he's 26 and will be 27 when he signs his next deal.

I'll nitpick too - if the Rangers resign him in January, he'll be 26 when he signs his next deal.

 

[mrmovies779]

Gotta love NYR HF - clamoring for years about wanting a PPG Center, finally a guy is achieving that who's all of 25, and you want to send him packing and basically throw a dart at a dart board instead.

In all fairness,this year aside...if he was a point per game player already,you can bet Gorton would have given him a multi year deal this past offseason.

 

[haohmaru]

In all fairness,this year aside...if he was a point per game player already,you can bet Gorton would have given him a multi year deal this past offseason.

Like Tavares got with the Islanders?

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

Gotta love NYR HF - clamoring for years about wanting a PPG Center, finally a guy is achieving that who's all of 25, and you want to send him packing and basically throw a dart at a dart board instead.

Sigh.

No, speaking for myself, I've wanted an ELITE center. I want a guy who scores with the best in the league. For a while, that was close to a PPG, but it's definitely not this year. Just look at the leaderboard – the best of the best are exceeding 1.5PPG.

Also, 30 points in 35 games is not close to a PPG; it's 0.86PPG.

Also, he's not 25, he's less than 5 months from being 27.

He's a good player. If this recent streak proves to be more than just a streak, he'll be a very good player. I like him.

But he's still not ELITE.

We should trade him for more swings at ELITE players who will hit their prime in the same window as the other players we've been accumulating.

 

[mrmovies779]

Like Tavares got with the Islanders?

Tavares didnt want to resign there.2 completely different situations and you know that.

 

[haohmaru]

Tavares didnt want to resign there.2 completely different situations and you know that.

I (we) don't know what Gorton offered Hayes in terms of multi-year deals and you know that. Tavares didn't make his decision until pretty late in the game - I'm pretty sure he was torn between the two and Toronto wasn't a slam dunk in the least.

 

[Vinny DeAngelo]

Gotta love NYR HF - clamoring for years about wanting a PPG Center, finally a guy is achieving that who's all of 25, and you want to send him packing and basically throw a dart at a dart board instead.

Multiple people spoke about his age...

I'm hear to say don't buy contract year production. What Zibanejad is doing(producing after he got a cheaper deal) is more ideal..

 

[haohmaru]

Sigh.

No, speaking for myself, I've wanted an ELITE center. I want a guy who scores with the best in the league. For a while, that was close to a PPG, but it's definitely not this year. Just look at the leaderboard – the best of the best are exceeding 1.5PPG.

Also, 30 points in 35 games is not close to a PPG; it's 0.86PPG.

Also, he's not 25, he's less than 5 months from being 27.

He's a good player. If this recent streak proves to be more than just a streak, he'll be a very good player. I like him.

But he's still not ELITE.

We should trade him for more swings at ELITE players who will hit their prime in the same window as the other players we've been accumulating.

.086 "is not close" to 1.00? What? His production over the past month has been north of 1.0PPG.

He's 26. Unless your talking about toddlers, we usually don't factor months into a person's age.

My point isn't that he's ELITE. Definitely not. My point is that you're probably better off with what you've got than what we're going to get back for him pick-wise. Hughes seems like a sure-fire NHL'er but which guy, in the upcoming draft, is an automatic ELITE center at whatever pick the Rangers end up with for Hayes?

I think that's a question that you can't answer and that you have to ask yourself.

 

[offdacrossbar]

Gotta love NYR HF - clamoring for years about wanting a PPG Center, finally a guy is achieving that who's all of 25, and you want to send him packing and basically throw a dart at a dart board instead.

you better duck .....

 

[mrmovies779]

I (we) don't know what Gorton offered Hayes in terms of multi-year deals and you know that. Tavares didn't make his decision until pretty late in the game - I'm pretty sure he was torn between the two and Toronto wasn't a slam dunk in the least.

I honestly dont think Tavares was torn at all.I just think he waited so long to make it seem like he was to Islander fans.Thats my opinion of course.As for Hayes-you are right that we really dont know what he was offered,but im pretty confident in saying im sure it wasnt close to the term/amount he will get this offseason-providing he keeps his pace up.

 

[haohmaru]

you better duck .....

I've been here for almost a decade. I can take it.

 

[haohmaru]

I honestly dont think Tavares was torn at all.I just think he waited so long to make it seem like he was to Islander fans.Thats my opinion of course.As for Hayes-you are right that we really dont know what he was offered,but im pretty confident in saying im sure it wasnt close to the term/amount he will get this offseason-providing he keeps his pace up.

"My gut was just tearing apart, my heart was tearing apart trying to figure out what I wanted to do. Yesterday was one heck of a day."

Sure sounds like a guy with a devious master plan to play one off the other. I'll agree to disagree.

 

[offdacrossbar]

i have to laugh at all the comments about drafting "elite" players. atleast this thread provides some comic relief.

adding more mid 1st round picks, especially with our past draft resume, is just about as 50/50 as it can get. im curious where all these "elite" players are coming from ??

i mean we had the 7OA and we have 50 who- albeit still very young, has been surpassed by 72 and at this point were not even sure EITHER of the guys will end up as pivots long term. chytl appears to be comfortable on the edge and lias doesnt seem to me at this point to have the speed to play a top 6 C role.

that leaves 21 - a pure rookie and whom ever "elite" center we draft. pretty barren and lots of hope and maybes there. the chances of drafting "elite" are pretty low. if we want "elite" we gotta get lucky. luck isnt a plan. period

when you move 13, and his seemingly established solid to very good 2C 2 way game, where he can play both a scorers role and a shutdown role equally well, we better get back something more than just mid 1st picks and a B prospect. he may not be "elite" but hes near 70 point pace and thats damn good.

if you can get 140 points out of your 1 and 2C's heres the company you are in.

washington caps 2017-2018 CUP WINNERS

backstrom (71) and kuznetsov(83) combined for 154 points last reg season.
13 & 93 are both on a 70 point pace this year. thats 140 points people.

and we dont have OVIE finishing for them.

NOT ELITE but damn good enough imo.

rather keep 13, 20 and 93 as our rebuild "CORE" and add talent to those 3 excellent proven young established players who all ARE NOT ELITE but are a solid foundation to a competitive run for the next 5 years.

KEEP 13 and build around him.

see thats the problem, its not 13, its the players we lack around 13. capice ?

 

[mulli25]

.086 "is not close" to 1.00? What? His production over the past month has been north of 1.0PPG.

He's 26. Unless your talking about toddlers, we usually don't factor months into a person's age.

My point isn't that he's ELITE. Definitely not. My point is that you're probably better off with what you've got than what we're going to get back for him pick-wise. Hughes seems like a sure-fire NHL'er but which guy, in the upcoming draft, is an automatic ELITE center at whatever pick the Rangers end up with for Hayes?

I think that's a question that you can't answer and that you have to ask yourself.

Regarding the bolded, that's a noteworthy difference. I wouldn't say a guy who tallied 86 points pretty much got 100.

I think the biggest disconnect in this everlasting conversation is that its NOT about drafting a 100% upgrade over Hayes with the pick(s) you get in return. Its about getting yourself in a position where you can compensate for the loss of Hayes' production elsewhere on the roster with more favorable contracts. And while doing that you increase your chances of adding high end talent through the draft and/or free agency when the time comes.

Different things are valuable to teams at different times. Right now, imo, Hayes' on-ice production is more valuable to another team than it is to us.

 

[Rangers in 7]

i have to laugh at all the comments about drafting "elite" players. atleast this thread provides some comic relief.

adding more mid 1st round picks, especially with our past draft resume, is just about as 50/50 as it can get. im curious where all these "elite" players are coming from ??

i mean we had the 7OA and we have 50 who- albeit still very young, has been surpassed by 72 and at this point were not even sure EITHER of the guys will end up as pivots long term. chytl appears to be comfortable on the edge and lias doesnt seem to me at this point to have the speed to play a top 6 C role.

that leaves 21 - a pure rookie and whom ever "elite" center we draft. pretty barren and lots of hope and maybes there. the chances of drafting "elite" are pretty low. if we want "elite" we gotta get lucky. luck isnt a plan. period

when you move 13, and his seemingly established solid to very good 2C 2 way game, where he can play both a scorers role and a shutdown role equally well, we better get back something more than just mid 1st picks and a B prospect. he may not be "elite" but hes near 70 point pace and thats damn good.

if you can get 140 points out of your 1 and 2C's heres the company you are in.

washington caps 2017-2018 CUP WINNERS

backstrom (71) and kuznetsov(83) combined for 154 points last reg season.
13 & 93 are both on a 70 point pace this year. thats 140 points people.

and we dont have OVIE finishing for them.

NOT ELITE but damn good enough imo.

rather keep 13, 20 and 93 as our rebuild "CORE" and add talent to those 3 excellent proven young established players who all ARE NOT ELITE but are a solid foundation to a competitive run for the next 5 years.

KEEP 13 and build around him.

see thats the problem, its not 13, its the players we lack around 13. capice ?

Putting up points and being elite players are very different....Hayes is no where near as talented as kuznetsov or backstrom, Hayes is a complimentary player on very good teams. You acquire players like Hayes when you are ready to compete, unfortunately Hayes is not a superstar

 

[haohmaru]

Regarding the bolded, that's a noteworthy difference. I wouldn't say a guy who tallied 86 points pretty much got 100.

I think the biggest disconnect in this everlasting conversation is that its NOT about drafting a 100% upgrade over Hayes with the pick(s) you get in return. Its about getting yourself in a position where you can compensate for the loss of Hayes' production elsewhere on the roster with more favorable contracts. And while doing that you increase your chances of adding high end talent through the draft and/or free agency when the time comes.

Different things are valuable to teams at different times. Right now, imo, Hayes' on-ice production is more valuable to another team than it is to us.

Factoring over a 100 games is different than 35 - especially with the tear he's been on lately.

He's had 9 points in his last 5 games. If he keeps that up he'd be at 39 points in game 40.

IMO, Hayes is more valuable to us as a reliable two way Center finding his way to a consistent 2C at 26 then throwing a dart at a dart board hoping it turns out to be a center better than he is. It's unlikely.

Unless a proven commodity, not necessarily a center, is coming back the other way then I pass on trading him. I don't want a pick for Hayes as the centerpiece of a Hayes trade. That's all.