Metallian said:
I dont think theres all too much to Horton. Sure, he was taken after Staal, but what does that mean? Okay, he was good in junior but so are a lot of other players who cant translate it to the NHL.
I think Horton is all hype and no substance. The guy was made out to be the Pre-Crosby to tide us over, he's not in the same league as Staal. He can score goals though, I'll give him that much credit.
That said, I think Kessel will be a top 15 scoring threat. I think he'll be like a 2001 era Bill Guerin, but obviously more consistant. an 85pt guy.
Horton, i see as a 65pt guy, but most of those are goals.
Kessel does not have Guerin's physical dimension. Guerin, in his prime, was one of the top power forwards in the game, and one of the best combinations of skill, size, speed and physical play in the world.
Horton, I believe, has the potential to be a 40-45 goal, 80-plus point player with a strong physical dimension. He's on a 40-goal pace on a crap team. The reason he doesn't have many assists is the same reason Rick Nash doesn't have many assists: there isn't another player on the team who's a strong goal scorer at this stage in his career. (Zheredev is, of course, in Columbus, but he lacks the consistency and drive to be a top goal scorer at this stage in his career). The top offensive player in Florida, Jokinen, is a better playmaker than a goal scorer. Players who are "all hype and no substance" don't score at a 40-goal pace in the NHL before their 21st birthday.
Kessel is now suffering through the situation that usually plagues players who have been scrutinized for three years. We've seen all that he does well, and offensively he does a lot well, that we start to dissect his game and look for his faults. It happened to Spezza, it happened to Bouwmeester, it even happened to Ovechkin to a smaller extent. (Crosby is an exception). Because he's been so exposed so much in the last two years (thanks to brilliance at the 2005 WJC and WU-18), the scouting fraternity is now looking for holes, instead of continuing to hype his strengths.
And BTW, I never said Kessel wasn't going to be a top 15 or 20 SCORER. I said he wouldn't be a top 15 or 20 PLAYER. There is a world of difference. Cory Stillman was a top 10 scorer in 2003-04. I don't think anyone's going to ever put him as a top 10 player, or even a top 50 player.