Player Discussion: Kent Johnson

[Xoggz22]

over 82 games, kent johnson's current scoring pace would give him a final line of: 52g-41a–93p

over the last three seasons, the players with the closest statlines to that are:

• kyle connor (21-22): 47-46–93 (79gp)
• alex ovechkin (21-22): 50-40-90(77gp)
• brayden point (22-23): 51-44–95 (82gp)
• brayden point (23-24): 46-44–90 (82gp)
• filip forsberg (23-24): 48-46–94 (82gp)

also that 2.36 5v5 G/60 is higher than:

• every single player in the league last year with more than 150 minutes of ice time (matthews led the league at 1.84)
• every single player in the league the year before that one (22-23)
• also every player in the league the year before that too (21-22)

auston matthews had 1.94 g/60 at 5v5 in his best career season so far.

the obvious caveat here is that KJ is shooting 28% which isn't sustainable, but i cannot understate how good he looks this year. he's still creative and confident, but has stepped up his skating and puck protection and grown into an elite shooter.

To me... the exciting thing is that not only would he be expected to get better, but the supporting case will also improve. That's so incredibly fun to think about. He looks good and the stats support that he is really playing at that level. At some point I would like to see him play with Chinny. Just let him shoot and become that 30+ goal scorer I feel he has in him (Chinny).

 

[S1N4TR4]

over 82 games, kent johnson's current scoring pace would give him a final line of: 52g-41a–93p

over the last three seasons, the players with the closest statlines to that are:

• kyle connor (21-22): 47-46–93 (79gp)
• alex ovechkin (21-22): 50-40-90(77gp)
• brayden point (22-23): 51-44–95 (82gp)
• brayden point (23-24): 46-44–90 (82gp)
• filip forsberg (23-24): 48-46–94 (82gp)

also that 2.36 5v5 G/60 is higher than:

• every single player in the league last year with more than 150 minutes of ice time (matthews led the league at 1.84)
• every single player in the league the year before that one (22-23)
• also every player in the league the year before that too (21-22)

auston matthews had 1.94 g/60 at 5v5 in his best career season so far.

the obvious caveat here is that KJ is shooting 28% which isn't sustainable, but i cannot understate how good he looks this year. he's still creative and confident, but has stepped up his skating and puck protection and grown into an elite shooter.

brayden point: a man of consistency.

 

[S1N4TR4]

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Any Idea as to where we should expect his shooting percentage to regress to? What do we expect a "normal" year for KJ might be 40-50-90?.

iirc the baseline expectation is about 10-15%, and KJ's raw shooting talent is probably on the higher end of that range. i think a 'normal' year for KJ (assuming 82 games) is probably going to be something like 25-35 goals.

that said, i think there's room for growth beyond that, because:

1. he's establishing himself as a shooting threat, which teams will have to account for, which will open up passing opportunities that he's smart and skilled enough to capitalize on
2. once his reputation catches up to his skill level, teams will start giving him more respect on the power play
3. we could see breakouts from other guys (fantilli in particular)

point #2 is key. you see how teams give kucherov a ton of space because they respect (fear?) him on the half-wall, and how the whole thing runs through him. if KJ starts getting a similar treatment, the jackets power play could really start humming once some other guys develop. that'll mean a lot more points.

 

[VT]

over 82 games, kent johnson's current scoring pace would give him a final line of: 52g-41a–93p

over the last three seasons, the players with the closest statlines to that are:

• kyle connor (21-22): 47-46–93 (79gp)
• alex ovechkin (21-22): 50-40-90(77gp)
• brayden point (22-23): 51-44–95 (82gp)
• brayden point (23-24): 46-44–90 (82gp)
• filip forsberg (23-24): 48-46–94 (82gp)

also that 2.36 5v5 G/60 is higher than:

• every single player in the league last year with more than 150 minutes of ice time (matthews led the league at 1.84)
• every single player in the league the year before that one (22-23)
• also every player in the league the year before that too (21-22)

auston matthews had 1.94 g/60 at 5v5 in his best career season so far.

the obvious caveat here is that KJ is shooting 28% which isn't sustainable, but i cannot understate how good he looks this year. he's still creative and confident, but has stepped up his skating and puck protection and grown into an elite shooter.

Unfortunately, it's still early in the season and Johnson isn't playing with a center like Scheifelle, Backstrom/Kuznetsov, or a winger like Kucherov. Or a combination like O'Reilly and Nyquist, not forgetting that last year Preds was a system TOP team.