At this point in their careers, I'd rather have Kreider over Tarasenki.
Why?
They are both the same age. They are both producing the same ppg.
Tarasenko is coming off an injury and is fresh from a bad situation he did not want to be in. And is historically superior.
I suspect Tarasenko produces substantially more points than Kreider next year if he's in a stable situation.
Kreider scores more goals but he's kind of a one-trick pony at this stage. He scores net front, power play goals, deflections and put backs.
Tarasenko is the way more gifted and well-rounded offensive player at the moment (and forever).
I don't know where you're getting this 4.5 number from for Tarasenko but I'm sure he and his agent have other ideas.
That, fairly, is speculation. If Tarasenko wants $8m then that would change the calculation herein. Given that he wants to be here and has already landed his big contract previously I'm operating under the assumption (and much of the board has speculated this btw) that he may come in at around that number.
I'm still not sure I wouldn't trade Kreider anyway, because I value the recoupment of assets, but for sake of this argument, to at least establish a premise, I'm operating under the assumption that you can get Tarasenko for something like 4.5x3.
They are going to look to cash in on one more big deal. And it's already been proven that Panarin doesn't need much by way of RWs for him to put numbers up.
But we've been much, much better offensively since Tarasenko joined the top 6.
We shouldn't want to go back to having Fasts and Veseys in those roles. If Tarasenko leaves you are back to that arrangement again - a bottom 6 plugger in your top 6. Versus if Kreider is gone, you still have Panarin, Lafreniere, and a very high end prospect in Othmann for those roles.
Hopefully Laf and Kakko prove worthy of those roles officially next year.