Rumor: Karlsson "out there" for trade, most likely an off-season move

[CheckingLineCenter]

Have no clue if he’ll net like a 3rd on its own or an actual decent haul

 

[Baksfamous112]

For me, it depends on what pick he is attaching to Gallagher. For example, would you take: Karlsson (2mil retained) for Gallagher +2nd (2026)?

That's better than sitting on him for two years. That being said, with the Pens picking up his 5mil bonus and retention, I think they can get a better return. 4 Nations showed he can still be a really good player on a good team.

That’s pretty much what I had in mind when I proposed this trade. Maybe a prospect with potential to be an NHL down the road included as well.

 

[Empoleon8771]

For me, it depends on what pick he is attaching to Gallagher. For example, would you take: Karlsson (2mil retained) for Gallagher +2nd (2026)?

That's better than sitting on him for two years. That being said, with the Pens picking up his 5mil bonus and retention, I think they can get a better return. 4 Nations showed he can still be a really good player on a good team.

Gallagher's deal is really bad, I wouldn't be retaining anything on Karlsson if he's a part of the deal. 2 more years at $6.5 million with a full NMC for a guy who has a high of 31 points in the last 5 seasons.

I'd sooner hold onto Karlsson and trade him as a rental in 1.5 years, which should be pretty easy, over taking back a contract as bad as Gallagher's. If we're talking Montreal, it would be more like Laine and a 2nd for Karlsson IMO.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Dude you specifically posted Warrior's response from that thread, on its' own, which again seemed generally accepting but by no means "excited" about the hire - hence my earlier comment.

Yeah man, I dunno why I'd directly quote the specific person who denied it was a thing...

 

[Jay Gray]

For me, it depends on what pick he is attaching to Gallagher. For example, would you take: Karlsson (2mil retained) for Gallagher +2nd (2026)?

That's better than sitting on him for two years. That being said, with the Pens picking up his 5mil bonus and retention, I think they can get a better return. 4 Nations showed he can still be a really good player on a good team.

Why would Karlsson waive for a non-playoff team again after he did it with Pittsburgh and it backfired? Montreal might improve again next season and still miss the playoffs.

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

Considering how better players are before and after Sullivan, I think anyone that acquires Karlsson will be pleasantly surprised

 

[Baksfamous112]

Gallagher's deal is really bad, I wouldn't be retaining anything on Karlsson if he's a part of the deal. 2 more years at $6.5 million with a full NMC for a guy who has a high of 31 points in the last 5 seasons.

I'd sooner hold onto Karlsson and trade him as a rental in 1.5 years, which should be pretty easy, over taking back a contract as bad as Gallagher's. If we're talking Montreal, it would be more like Laine and a 2nd for Karlsson IMO.

Gallagher doesn’t have any trade protection and he’s on pace for 20 goals and 36 points this year

 

[TheGreenTBer]

Remember when PIT fans and stat boys were dancing in the streets over the Dubas hiring? Hasn't even been there two years. His two biggest moves were signing Jarry and trading for Karlsson.

One is buried and the other he'd supposedly trade "In a heartbeat". OOF.

Toronto fan, hate Dubas, don't remember any Penguins fans dancing in the streets over hiring Dubas.

The biggest problems in Pittsburgh originate above Dubas' level anyways.

 

[Ararana]

This is the shit show Crosby is determined to burn his last years with, eh?

 

[kerrabria]

Pens fans were happy that Hextall was fired and satisfied that he wasn’t replaced by a well-known disaster.

Ownership has a terrible track record with front office hires. Between 2021-23, they hired Hextall and Burke, tried to hire Tallon, interviewed Chiarelli and Bergevin, and settled on Dubas.

I’d be grateful with the final outcome too.

 

[Golden_Jet]

July 1st trade, Josh Norris for Erik Karlsson (No retention, but Pittsburgh pays the signing bonus).

Karlsson is only owed 11.5M over 2 years after his bonus is paid. Norris makes 9.5M next year and the year after, then he still has 3 years of term.

This assumes no trade market for either player. As in, Dubas isn't taking Norris instead of a 1st, there isn't a 1st on the table from anybody.

Both teams would be better off. Senators as a small market team during an era with a weak Canadian dollar, they move the liability of a player who has a long injury history. Pittsburgh gambles on the younger player who fits better with their timeline, but also might be worth a 1st++ a few years down the line if they prove they can stay healthy as the cap deflates their contract and the remaining term lessens.

If Ottawa trades Tkachuk, it would also be a positive marketing move to bring back Karlsson.

Sens are definitely not doing that, especially with no retention , irregardless if it happens after July 1.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Karlsson has 2 years left after this one? He could be a target for Montreal if his cap is taken down to ~8M. He could be the perfect fit on the second pair to play with Guhle while Reinbacher and Mailloux get their reps in and are more experienced.

Would Pittsburgh would take back a guy like Gallagher and a pick? If not, I wouldn’t mind doing a Laine-type deal where we deal a young LHD (Struble?) for Karlsson and a pick.

D pairing could like look like:

Karlsson - Guhle
Hutson - Carrier
Xhekaj - Mailloux/Reinbacher

Karlsson is on the wrong side and Montreal doesn't need Karlsson at this stage in his career.

Like at all.

For Montreal to trade for him they're getting assets for taking on that albatross of a contract and that's why Pittsburgh looks elsewhere to take on different bad contracts and/or retain to get assets in return so they can start their rebuild.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Not nearly enough coming from Ottawa if the Penguins are also eating Karlsson’s July signing bonus.

After this year, Karlsson is owed $16.75 million in real money and San Jose is eating about $2.25 million of that. This deal would have the Penguins eating Karlsson’s $5 million bonus and Karlsson only costing Ottawa $9 million over 2 years. Meanwhile the Penguins are taking on that $5 million bonus plus the $33 million Norris is owed. That is wildly too high of a money disparity for me to think that’s a fair swap.

The Penguins paying Norris $38 million for 4 years and the Senators paying Karlsson $9 million for 2 years is not a fair deal, especially considering Karlsson is the better player. I don’t hate the concept because Norris is intriguing for a team that has nothing in terms of good young centers, but Ottawa is for sure adding in that case.

I think in a scenario where ether is no market for Karlsson, they would do it with the idea that they can get a return on Norris down the line.

This is the kind of proposal where if you ask both sides of fans, both would say their team deserves the plus. So there is something lost in translation there.

 

[SEALBound]

Karlsson is on the wrong side and Montreal doesn't need Karlsson at this stage in his career.

Like at all.

For Montreal to trade for him they're getting assets for taking on that albatross of a contract and that's why Pittsburgh looks elsewhere to take on different bad contracts and/or retain to get assets in return so they can start their rebuild.

I think this is further out of touch with reality than you realize.

 

[SEALBound]

Yeah, it's not dissimilar to the "hire fast, fire fast" strategy, lol.

I actually think he did a good job extricating himself from Smith. The Karlsson situation is a bit different. In the time since Dubas arrived, the Pens have gone from wannabe contenders to a team clearly in sell mode. So it makes sense to look to move EK.

I'm not as sour as some are on Dubas (interestingly, it seems Leafs fan are the most vocal in chiding Dubas' tenure in Pitt, whereas Pens fans are more ambivalent).

Like I said, I have no issue with the Smith/Karlsson situations, but if I were to criticize him for signings, it would be for both Jarry and Graves. They've both been unmitigated disasters, and the Pens are stuck with both of 'em on high-dollar & long-term deals.

Agreed. Most of the moves have been "meh" or "It's okay...just not what I would have done". But yeah, Graves and Jarry were majors misses but I will caveat that with Mike Sullivan being a major part of the problem as well. Both might do better under a coach who actually has a competent defensive zone system. I would actually expect Graves to be a #4/5 capable dman if he got away from Sullivan. I also think Jarry would be better on a better team. So in addition to both of them shitting the bed, it's not 100% solely on Dubas or the player.

Way too often we see players who stink under Sullivan go out and magically get better under someone else.

If I'm a GM this off-season and I need a 1B, I might consider a trade for Jarry if I can get rid of another crappy deal. With the cap going up and a ton of mediocre, platoon-level goalies cashing in, suddenly $5.35mil for 3 years doesn't seem all that bad, especially if he can raise his play to 1B status which may just be a natural effect from getting away from Sullivan and the Penguins.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think in a scenario where ether is no market for Karlsson, they would do it with the idea that they can get a return on Norris down the line.

This is the kind of proposal where if you ask both sides of fans, both would say their team deserves the plus. So there is something lost in translation there.

No at that point, the Penguins just keep Karlsson. The money discrepancy between those two is absolutely massive, to the point where you can’t justify that trade.

I don’t really care if Senators fans would say no to that, Karlsson for 2 years and $9 million for Norris for 4 years and $38 million is absolutely not an even trade for the Penguins.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

I think this is further out of touch with reality than you realize.

How so ?

Does Montreal need him ? Absolutely not given where they are and where he is.

Who wants to add that guy at that contract and not get anything additional ? No one.

If Pittsburgh goes to trade him, they're retaining and/or taking on other bad contracts so they get some value from it ?

That contract without the pens retaining and/or taking other contracts back isnt getting moved unless you're paying someone to do it, or you fire Dubas and he gets hired somewhere else.

 

[SEALBound]

How so ?

Does Montreal need him ? Absolutely not given where they are and where he is.

Who wants to add that guy at that contract and not get anything additional ? No one.

If Pittsburgh goes to trade him, they're retaining and/or taking on other bad contracts so they get some value from it ?

That contract without the pens retaining and/or taking other contracts back isnt getting moved unless you're paying someone to do it, or you fire Dubas and he gets hired somewhere else.

Thank you for your viewpoint. Again, I think this is out of touch with reality even more so than your original post. While it's true Montreal isn't the best fit overall, you're out-to-lunch if you think the Penguins need to add assets in order to move him.

I don't know what he will get move for but I assure you, it won't be the premise you are suggesting here.

Now, retaining is nearly a given but I wouldn't say that is because of negative value. That would be more so to facilitate the trade so the receiving team can fit him in cap wise. Taking back a cap dump is also pretty standard with large cap hit moves. Technically, Rutta, Petry, CDS, and Granlund were all "cap dumps" when the Karlsson trade was made.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Thank you for your viewpoint. Again, I think this is out of touch with reality even more so than your original post. While it's true Montreal isn't the best fit overall, you're out-to-lunch if you think the Penguins need to add assets in order to move him.

I don't know what he will get move for but I assure you, it won't be the premise you are suggesting here.

At full contract and not taking anyone back

Not sure how you missed that twice, but hopefully you're not going for hat trick of ignorance here!

 

[Lenny Levino]

Karlsson dominated in the 4 Nations. He's still an incredible player. He just needs a system that allows him to play to his strengths.

 

[SEALBound]

At full contract and not taking anyone back

Not sure how you missed that twice, but hopefully you're not going for hat trick of ignorance here!

I edited while you were responding. But still, $7-8mil is a large chunk for any team to be taking on. People thinking he needs 50% retained are wrong unless they are willing to pay the Penguins extra. Not to mention, you initial reply was replying to the Gallagher+2nd for EK suggestion. If that is the return, Penguins absolutely are no adding nor retaining.

 

[BoHorvat 53]

Karlsson showed out at the 4 Nations Cup, showed he still has the juice to play elite level hockey. Any team that can get him at say 8 or 9 million will walk away with probably a very good deal for a player that can still be a #1 defenseman (imo, at least).

I edited while you were responding. But still, $7-8mil is a large chunk for any team to be taking on. People thinking he needs 50% retained are wrong unless they are willing to pay the Penguins extra. Not to mention, you initial reply was replying to the Gallagher+2nd for EK suggestion. If that is the return, Penguins absolutely are no adding nor retaining.

50% retention is just straight up stupid, feel like Karlsson's gained an unfair reputation for being a bad player when he's still very good, just hasn't meshed well in Pittsburgh - it really is what it is, if we didn't have Quinn Hughes and were in the position to contend I would've hoped our team is all over this, there are a lot of teams that should be all over this.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

Remember when <mod edit> were dancing in the streets over the Dubas hiring? Hasn't even been there two years. His two biggest moves were signing Jarry and trading for Karlsson.

One is buried and the other he'd supposedly trade "In a heartbeat". OOF.

1) Signing Jarry was not one of Dubas' biggest moves.
2) Of course he'd trade Karlsson in a heartbeat. He is trying to gain assets for the future, Karlsson is not a part of the core, and the 1st + that Karlsson will return in the offseason will be useful.

Dubas sure loves to add a guy and then realize it was a bad decision and quickly back track.

Hes done it so many f***in times.

Hell this would already be the 2nd player hes done this to in Pitts, first one being Smith where he trades for him and then trades him away the next year lol.

Yeah, I can't believe Dubas traded Smith away for ... *checks notes* a better deal than the one he acquired him for.

If Erik Karlsson were a free agent this summer, how many teams would offer him a buyout proof 2 years 10M contract with a NMC?

28. I'll be conservative here.

Out of the teams that would do that, how many would Erik Karlsson willingly leave Pittsburgh to go to.

It depends on how picky Karlsson is. If he wants to go to a team with a decent chance of winning, we'll say 8.

Out of the teams that now remain, what kind of value would they place on that transaction above what Karlsson brings them for 20M over 2 years? A 1st? 2nd? 3rd? Etc.

All 8 of them.

If you do that thought exercise, it becomes obvious that its going to be difficult to move him for any value.

If you do that thought exercise, it becomes obvious that the only thing that would hold the Penguins back from getting a 1st + is if Karlsson has only one or two teams he'd waive for.

Pens fans were happy that Hextall was fired and satisfied that he wasn’t replaced by a well-known disaster.

Ownership has a terrible track record with front office hires. Between 2021-23, they hired Hextall and Burke, tried to hire Tallon, interviewed Chiarelli and Bergevin, and settled on Dubas.

I’d be grateful with the final outcome too.

Current ownership did not hire Hextall and Burke.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm still confused for why some people come in here and make suggestions of the Penguins paying to get out of Karlsson's deal. Like people know where they're at in the standings, right? When do bad teams ever pay to get out of terrible deals? Laine is the only example I can think of, and that was more about Laine asking for a trade than anything.

If Karlsson's value truly is negative and the Penguins would have to pay to move him, they'd just sit on his deal until it expires and let him walk as a free agent. Even if we want to pretend that's the case, suggesting the Penguins pay to get out of his deal or just swap him for some other shitty contracts is laughable.

 

[Zbynek]

Dubas was hired with the mandate from ownership to try to compete longer and postpone the rebuild for as long as possible. He added Karlsson coming off a Norris for an (at the time) pretty low cost, it was a bunch of cap dumps and a 1st projected to be in the 20-25 range. It didn't pan out and San Jose clearly won the deal, but the deal wasn't a disaster for the Penguins.

The failures by Dubas were those heinous Jarry and Graves contracts and his free agency in general. The Karlsson deal didn't pan out but it was a completely worthwhile move to make at the time.

I mean yes but Karlsson not panning out is still on Dubas.

Dubas is genuinely terrible.