Kaprizov vs Lafreniere: chance for Calder

[Kshahdoo]

Say, both start their NHL careers in the same season. Who will have the better chance to win Calder?

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[bobholly39]

I know #1OA picks dont always win the Calder, but they still usually always earn the right to be called favorite. Considering Laf is one of the better #1OA picks in past 10 years - no reason not to pick him here

 

[Digitalbooya]

I’ve got Kaprizov because he’s been playing in a men’s league and has about 5 years of bulking up on Lafreniere. Should be a smoother transition in my opinion. I could definitely see Lafreniere winning it though.

 

[LeProspector]

Kaprizov because he’s 23 and been playing professionally for years.

 

[Michoulicious]

The fact Kaprizov played so many seasons in a professionnal league does not prevent him from being Calder eligible?

 

[OKR]

The fact Kaprizov played so many seasons in a professionnal league does not prevent him from being Calder eligible?

Why would it? Calder is for the best NHL rookie, if you’re not allowing europeans to play proffesionally prior to NHL and still Compete for calder then there woulndn’t be one european calder winner in the world.

 

[Wasted Talent]

The fact Kaprizov played so many seasons in a professionnal league does not prevent him from being Calder eligible?

Unless they've changed the rules after Panarin did the same thing 4 years ago, it shouldn't be an issue.

 

[Ciao]

The fact Kaprizov played so many seasons in a professionnal league does not prevent him from being Calder eligible?

Why would it? Calder is for the best NHL rookie, if you’re not allowing europeans to play proffesionally prior to NHL and still Compete for calder then there woulndn’t be one european calder winner in the world.

Unless they've changed the rules after Panarin did the same thing 4 years ago, it shouldn't be an issue.

The eligibility rules have not changed since Panarin won the Calder: a player must be under age 26 on September 15 of the year in which the season starts, and must not have played 25 games in any one season or six games in each of any two preceding seasons in any major professional league.

The KHL is not a major professional league, and KHL veterans are therefore eligible for the Calder.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Seems like some don't remember Hughes and Kakko.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Seems like some don't remember Hughes and Kakko.

Seems like someone has a rather "low" opinion of Lafrenière if he thinks he is similar to those guys.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Seems like someone has a rather "low" opinion of Lafrenière if he thinks he is similar to those guys.

I don't have a low opinion of Hughes or Kakko. You seem to. I'm trying to be realistic. After what we've seen from this season, I don't believe you can project every high pick as an instant impact player. Some will be, and others won't, but projecting them as instant impact isn't something I think we should be doing. McDavid, Matthews, Dahlin, Eichel is a different story. Svechnikov wasn't instant impact if you look back a year. Some will be, and others won't.

I think it's a lot more likely that Kaprizov has the better season. I can't imagine a scenario where he's less than .5PPG. With Lafreniere, I don't think you can rule out that he's under .33PPG.

 

[Canovin]

It really depends on which team Lafreniere goes to

 

[Scandale du Jour]

I don't have a low opinion of Hughes or Kakko. You seem to. I'm trying to be realistic. After what we've seen from this season, I don't believe you can project every high pick as an instant impact player. Some will be, and others won't, but projecting them as instant impact isn't something I think we should be doing. McDavid, Matthews, Dahlin, Eichel is a different story. Svechnikov wasn't instant impact if you look back a year. Some will be, and others won't.

I think it's a lot more likely that Kaprizov has the better season. I can't imagine a scenario where he's less than .5PPG. With Lafreniere, I don't think you can rule out that he's under .33PPG.

I agree with you on the bolded.

I just think Lafrenière will be.

I have him closer to Matthews, Dahlin, Eichel than I have him to Kakko and Hughes.

Lafrenière ceiling might be lower than some of these guys, but his floor is very high and he should perform right away.

Does it mean he will win the Calder? No. But I think he can put up a solid 65-70 points from the get go. .33 PPG would be atrocious for Lafrenière, IMO. That means like 27 points. If Lafrenière gets 27 points, I will be EXTREMELY surprised AND disappointed. Of course, that is contingent on a 82-game schedule. If they play 48, 16 points would be horrible for Lafrenière. I think he is safe for .5PPG.

 

[AvsCOL]

Kaprizov probably has the edge as a rookie, since he'll be 5 years older, but Lafrieniere will be the much better player.

 

[Kshahdoo]

Kaprizov probably has the edge as a rookie, since he'll be 5 years older, but Lafrieniere will be the much better player.

Who thought back to then, that Panarin would become top5 NHL player?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

.33 PPG would be atrocious for Lafrenière, IMO. That means like 27 points. If Lafrenière gets 27 points, I will be EXTREMELY surprised AND disappointed. Of course, that is contingent on a 82-game schedule. If they play 48, 16 points would be horrible for Lafrenière. I think he is safe for .5PPG.

The reason I used PPG instead of raw point totals is because we might not have an 82 game season.

Hughes was .34, Kakko was .35, but only .004 higher than Hughes, so nearly identical. His number only looks higher because its rounded up. Svechnikov was definitely better, but he was also below .5PPG. I'm not even suggesting Lafreniere will play bad. We just don't know what his situation will be. What if he's on the 3rd line playing 13 minutes per game and only the second PP?

I feel a lot more comfortable projecting a 23 year old to be pretty close to what he'd play like and produce numbers as in his prime. I don't even think Kaprizov is that good. Some suggest he's the next Russian star. Not what I've seen. I think he'll be a lot more in line with someone like Dadonov than Panarin, but he's 23 years old, and .5-.75 should be very realistic. He shouldn't be that far away next season from his ceiling. Maybe you account for a little extra TOI, slightly better situations, slightly better adjustment to NA and the NHL in 2-3 more seasons, but I look at Kaprizov as very close to a finished product.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

The reason I used PPG instead of raw point totals is because we might not have an 82 game season.

Hughes was .34, Kakko was .35, but only .004 higher than Hughes, so nearly identical. His number only looks higher because its rounded up. Svechnikov was definitely better, but he was also below .5PPG. I'm not even suggesting Lafreniere will play bad. We just don't know what his situation will be. What if he's on the 3rd line playing 13 minutes per game and only the second PP?

I feel a lot more comfortable projecting a 23 year old to be pretty close to what he'd play like and produce numbers as in his prime. I don't even think Kaprizov is that good. Some suggest he's the next Russian star. Not what I've seen. I think he'll be a lot more in line with someone like Dadonov than Panarin, but he's 23 years old, and .5-.75 should be very realistic. He shouldn't be that far away next season from his ceiling. Maybe you account for a little extra TOI, slightly better situations, slightly better adjustment to NA and the NHL in 2-3 more seasons, but I look at Kaprizov as very close to a finished product.

It’s certainly possible that Kaprizov outproduces Lafreniere, but Laf is a lot more NHL ready than most NHL prospects.

He’s really old for his draft year, and has good size coming into the league. I don’t expect Lafreniere to have much issue adapting to the NHL.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

The reason I used PPG instead of raw point totals is because we might not have an 82 game season.

Hughes was .34, Kakko was .35, but only .004 higher than Hughes, so nearly identical. His number only looks higher because its rounded up. Svechnikov was definitely better, but he was also below .5PPG. I'm not even suggesting Lafreniere will play bad. We just don't know what his situation will be. What if he's on the 3rd line playing 13 minutes per game and only the second PP?

I feel a lot more comfortable projecting a 23 year old to be pretty close to what he'd play like and produce numbers as in his prime. I don't even think Kaprizov is that good. Some suggest he's the next Russian star. Not what I've seen. I think he'll be a lot more in line with someone like Dadonov than Panarin, but he's 23 years old, and .5-.75 should be very realistic. He shouldn't be that far away next season from his ceiling. Maybe you account for a little extra TOI, slightly better situations, slightly better adjustment to NA and the NHL in 2-3 more seasons, but I look at Kaprizov as very close to a finished product.

Fair point.

I still think Lafrenière should be over .5PPG because his game is VERY NHL ready. Might not be enough to outproduce Kaprizov though.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

He’s really old for his draft year, and has good size coming into the league. I don’t expect Lafreniere to have much issue adapting to the NHL.

I think the late birthday is definitely a factor, and he's probably a better overall prospect than the two that struggled this year. Even Nico Hischier was above 50 points his first year. So it's definitely possible, and you don't even have to project as good as McDavid, Eichel, Matthews. And to some people, he does. Personally though, I'm taking Kaprizov. I think Hughes and Kakko are a cautionary tale for those that are sure Lafreniere is instant impact. He might be, he might be mid-level impact, and he might be low-impact.

 

[AvsCOL]

Who thought back to then, that Panarin would become top5 NHL player?

Exactly. It’s incredibly rare for a player to keep progressing at the rate he has from 24-27. Almost unheard of actually.

Cant assume that Kaprizov will do that just because he’s Russian.

 

[JoVel]

Cant assume that Kaprizov will do that just because he’s Russian.

Trust me, he can.

 

[Pyrophorus]

How about, neither one.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

I’ve got Kaprizov because he’s been playing in a men’s league and has about 5 years of bulking up on Lafreniere. Should be a smoother transition in my opinion. I could definitely see Lafreniere winning it though.

I agree that Kaprizov will probably have a better season, but I think most voters will consider the 5 year age gap if there's a marginal difference in Kaprizov's favor.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

How about, neither one.

The question is who has the better chance.

I agree that Shestyorkin is the big favorite.

 

[AKL]

Voted Kaprizov because he should likely be on a better team and he's been playing pro hockey for five years. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see Lafreniere win it though. He's far more NHL ready than Hughes was at this stage. But then most thought Kakko was too and he wasn't, so it's always a bit of a toss up until they start playing.