Personally I have to disagree. Some people thought Hughes was going to win it last year after similarly starting off on a hot streak. Yes injuries curtailed Hughes, and I acknowledge you noted that would naturally hamper Kaprizov as well, but even when he was healthy towards the end of the season Hughes came no where close to replicating his early season pace. Kaprizov has been simularly as streaky as Hughes having had had bursts like this previously before falling off the pace. He notched 18pts in 8 games during one stretch last season and had a simular stretch in 21-22. Those were great years for him, but he was nowhere near the scoring leaders by the end of them. There's no doubt he has already proven himself to be an all-star level player and I do think he'll set careers highs this year, but he's also a bit of a streaky one. I'm going to have to see a little more consistency from him before acknowledging him to be at the level needed to challenge the likes of McDavid, Kucherov and MacKinnon - the latter of which is just 1 point behind him and I don't think Mac has really hit his stride just yet.
That streak you mentioned could very easily be extended to the entire second half of last season, he was still recovering from the leg procedure last season and it wasn’t until after the All Star break that his skating started coming back to typical levels for him. By the final week of the season, he was playing some of the best hockey I have seen outside of the true greats, it was a travesty we didn’t get to see that player in the playoffs.
So far this season, he has looked good but not at that same level individually, much better talent around him though with growth from Boldy and Rossi, even Zuccarello is shooting more finally. I think it’s worth noting that he accumulated most of his points during the 7 game road trip when teams were getting the matchups they wanted against him. While a 2PPG pace is unlikely to be maintained, he is in a good position to continue scoring a whole lot.
I see health as the biggest hurdle, he plays a lot of minutes with a big target on his back and is a lot more involved in the dirty areas than most of the superstars in this league. But barring a healthy season, I don’t see why he wouldn’t be right in the mix for the scoring title, his skill level is right there with the best and the Wild have a good amount of talent in the top of the lineup to support him.