Kane Successful Knee Surgery - Jan 10 2025

[Fourier]

SJ doesn't have any retention spots is the issue at play.

The point was that a third team would do the retention.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

The point was that a third team would do the retention.

My point is wasting an EXTRA asset on a 3rd team for Kostin just doesn't make any sense. I would rather pay an extra asset to the Preds to get them to eat 50% on Sissons, because he's a better player who really fits a need.

 

[Fourier]

My point is wasting an EXTRA asset on a 3rd team for Kostin just doesn't make any sense. I would rather pay an extra asset to the Preds to get them to eat 50% on Sissons, because he's a better player who really fits a need.

Which is why I began with: Whether he is the right target or not I doubt he costs much.

I don't think Kostin is a priority but it would not bother me if he was a depth addition at a minimal cost. Assets like 5th round picks for players like Kostin are winning bets since you have less than a 1 in 10 chance that the fifth rounder end up being a player at Kostin's level.

The assets you might pay for Kostin are not going to prevent acquiring a guy like Sissons. Sissions at 50% would cost you a lot more.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Which is why I began with: Whether he is the right target or not I doubt he costs much.

I don't think Kostin is a priority but it would not bother me if he was a depth addition at a minimal cost. Assets like 5th round picks for players like Kostin are winning bets since you have less than a 1 in 10 chance that the fifth rounder end up being a player at Kostin's level.

The assets you might pay for Kostin are not going to prevent acquiring a guy like Sissons. Sissions at 50% would cost you a lot more.

If Klim Kostin costs you 2 picks, even depth picks, that's too much, Flat out. I like the guy too, but he's not a fit.

 

[Fourier]

If Klim Kostin costs you 2 picks, even depth picks, that's too much, Flat out. I like the guy too, but he's not a fit.

Kostin did bring some positive things to the team during his first stint. His position would be less secure today but he does have parts of his game that could be useful. I also think that if you brought him back he could be resigned very cheapy for next year when you may need some very cheap depth players.

If Kane is done for the regular season the Oilers can run with a 23 man roster.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Kostin did bring some positive things to the team during his first stint. His position would be less secure today but he does have parts of his game that could be useful. I also think that if you brought him back he could be resigned very cheapy for next year when you may need some very cheap depth players.

If Kane is done for the regular season the Oilers can run with a 23 man roster.

Again, I like the player, he was fun, brought toughness and surprising scoring, but he's a limited player.

I'm all aboard bring him back as a UFA, but I would, in no scenario, trade 2 draft picks for him. There are other and better players who are simpler to get who fit this team.

 

[Fourier]

Again, I like the player, he was fun, brought toughness and surprising scoring, but he's a limited player.

I'm all aboard bring him back as a UFA, but I would, in no scenario, trade 2 draft picks for him. There are other and better players who are simpler to get who fit this team.

I doubt he would cost two picks even with retention.

To SJ: Edm 2025 6th
To third team: 2026 SJ 7th, Tomas Mazura
To Edmonton: Kostin 50% retained.

The third team is retaining about $280K in salary. Maybe the Oilers throw in a prospect that they no longer have any plans for.

SJ basically paid a 7th for Kostin. Upgrading from a 2006 7th to a 2025 5th is probably worth about a 7th. At the deadline he will still be owed about $550K in real money. SJ saves some money by replacing him with someone who is owed $200K. The third team gets two minor assets to eat $275K or so.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

To me the timing of this surgery is quite deliberate and suggests they’re being crafty. The medical staff would have known whether knee surgery would have been a possibility back in August/Sept and he could have had this surgery at any time, seems like they kept this in their back pocket in order to see how his recovery from his other surgeries went, and if he was making enough progress that they might not be able to stretch his recovery to the start of the playoffs they had this minor surgery to pull out at a later date in order to stretch the recovery period to where they wanted it. I don’t think this was an absolute must have surgery but rather one of these wear and tear surgeries where it can generally be managed throughout the season and is playable so the player doesn’t miss any time and can address it in the off season.

In this case it was an advantage to have it done at some point in season because he was already going to be missing time anyway.

If I was betting I think Kane is going to be skating mid to late Feb and building throughout March, conditioning stint in Bako early/mid anpril and be ready to rejoin the team for the playoffs.

 

[samiam]

Players on LTIR are limited to 6 days in the AHL or three games which ever is longer. Looks to me like He could go to BAK on April 7th and stay until after the game on April 12th.

I was reading somewhere recently that while he would qualify for a 1-week (6-day) LTIR conditioning stint (with Kane's approval of course), he can also apply for an extension for an additional week.
Game action, even if it's of the AHL sort, for the better part of 2 weeks, would be mighty helpful in getting him up to speed.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

To me the timing of this surgery is quite deliberate and suggests they’re being crafty. The medical staff would have known whether knee surgery would have been a possibility back in August/Sept and he could have had this surgery at any time, seems like they kept this in their back pocket in order to see how his recovery from his other surgeries went, and if he was making enough progress that they might not be able to stretch his recovery to the start of the playoffs they had this minor surgery to pull out at a later date in order to stretch the recovery period to where they wanted it. I don’t think this was an absolute must have surgery but rather one of these wear and tear surgeries where it can generally be managed throughout the season and is playable so the player doesn’t miss any time and can address it in the off season.

In this case it was an advantage to have it done at some point in season because he was already going to be missing time anyway.

If I was betting I think Kane is going to be skating mid to late Feb and building throughout March, conditioning stint in Bako early/mid anpril and be ready to rejoin the team for the playoffs.

I don’t think it’s that deep imo. Probably wanted to have some significant recovery time on his other surgeries before jumping into another one.

Could be wrong though.

 

[Fourier]

I was reading somewhere recently that while he would qualify for a 1-week (6-day) LTIR conditioning stint (with Kane's approval of course), he can also apply for an extension for an additional week.
Game action, even if it's of the AHL sort, for the better part of 2 weeks, would be mighty helpful in getting him up to speed.

Yes they can ask for an extension of another two games. It would likely be granted given his injuries. That would take him back to April 2nd I believe.

 

[jukon]

I doubt Stan would be as dumb as Tampa or Vegas, Kane will probably return for the playoffs but he won't be available for round 1 game 1. We don't have Bettman in our pocket so we need to be a little less obvious about it.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

The Oil have decent depth this year, so they don't need to Kane to hit the ground running come playoffs. They'll likely start him on the 4th line and ease him into the lineup.

I don’t think it’s that deep imo. Probably wanted to have some significant recovery time on his other surgeries before jumping into another one.

Could be wrong though.

I think this ones very delibrate regarding the timing. His orginal surgery in September had a 5 to 6 month recovery window, and this one lines up well with that.

Odds are they're going to give him January and Feburary off, he'll join the team and start practicing in March, and then he'll get a 2 week conditioning stint in the AHL during April.

 

[Lannes]

I doubt Stan would be as dumb as Tampa or Vegas, Kane will probably return for the playoffs but he won't be available for round 1 game 1. We don't have Bettman in our pocket so we need to be a little less obvious about it.

Yeah, the first time a Canadian team tries this will be the first time the league 'realizes' there is an issue and really starts looking into it. Bowman and company will have to have every I dotted and T crossed and, even then, I wouldn't be at all surprised if a league 'memo' that no one ever heard of from eight months ago surfaces involving rule changes that no one knew about and we still end up losing a couple picks.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

I doubt he would cost two picks even with retention.

To SJ: Edm 2025 6th
To third team: 2026 SJ 7th, Tomas Mazura
To Edmonton: Kostin 50% retained.

The third team is retaining about $280K in salary. Maybe the Oilers throw in a prospect that they no longer have any plans for.

SJ basically paid a 7th for Kostin. Upgrading from a 2006 7th to a 2025 5th is probably worth about a 7th. At the deadline he will still be owed about $550K in real money. SJ saves some money by replacing him with someone who is owed $200K. The third team gets two minor assets to eat $275K or so.

Wouldn't you rather get a Center over Kostin. We have a lot of bottom 6 wingers.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

The Oil have decent depth this year, so they don't need to Kane to hit the ground running come playoffs. They'll likely start him on the 4th line and ease him into the lineup.



I think this ones very delibrate regarding the timing. His orginal surgery in September had a 5 to 6 month recovery window, and this one lines up well with that.

Odds are they're going to give him January and Feburary off, he'll join the team and start practicing in March, and then he'll get a 2 week conditioning stint in the AHL during April.

Now if this is the case (which looks likely, lets be realistic and not stupid) What is the cap implications?

Can we go over by Kane's cap hit plus what we are accruing?

If Kane is out until playoffs what's are best guess cap space that we will have at the deadline?

I know it's been talked about a bunch but we don't really have a number??

 

[Dazed and Confused]

My point is wasting an EXTRA asset on a 3rd team for Kostin just doesn't make any sense. I would rather pay an extra asset to the Preds to get them to eat 50% on Sissons, because he's a better player who really fits a need.

Does Sissons really fit a need? The Oil have RNH, Rico, Janmark, Brown, and even Philp who all profile as dependable defensive forwards.

Meanwhile, Kostin brings size and physicality that this team sorely lacks up front without Kane.

Wouldn't you rather get a Center over Kostin. We have a lot of bottom 6 wingers.

Likely the correct answer is someone like McCarron, who brings size and physicality while being a decent PK, faceoff, and defensive option. Though I have the feeling his price is going to be super high for a 4th line C/W. Kostin you could likely have for a song and dance.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Does Sissons really fit a need? The Oil have RNH, Rico, Janmark, Brown, and even Philp who all profile as dependable defensive forwards.

What we keep group imagining Kostin as and what Kostin is are always at odds.

Yes he does, he's a massive upgrade on all the 4C and he just wins faceoffs at massive rate as a RHC. He would lock down the center rotation.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Now if this is the case (which looks likely, lets be realistic and not stupid) What is the cap implications?

Can we go over by Kane's cap hit plus what we are accruing?

If Kane is out until playoffs what's are best guess cap space that we will have at the deadline?

I know it's been talked about a bunch but we don't really have a number??

My understanding of the accrued cap vs. LTIR is it comes down when the transactions happen.

Example: *this doesn't work perfectly, but it explains the concept: Lets say it mid-Febuary and their accrued cap space is up to 2.1mil. While Kane's LTIR space is 5.15.

There are 3 adds that make sense:

Gibson at 50% for 3 mil (This is wrong, but round numbers are easier for this example)
Kostin at 2mil
Valimaki at 2 mil

**Names aren't super important, I'm just grabbing a forward, defenceman, and goalie at the right pricepoints.

If they acquire GIbson first, that immediately starts burning the LTIR space, as that's the transaction that puts them over the cap. They can only exceed the cap by the difference of Kane's salary (5.15) - their current cap space (2mil). So that leaves you 3mil remaining. **This is why Puckpedia was saying the Oilers could only go over the cap by 4mil in their tweet the other day** That only leaves you with enough room to acquire one of Valimaki or Kostin.

However if the Oil acquire Valimaki or Kostin first, then they just stay under the cap. That means it'd be the next transaction where they'd start burning LTIR space - Let's say it's Gibson trade.

So Kane's LTIR relief (5.15) - the current cap space (0.1), leaves you with 5.05mil to play with. Gibson takes up 3mil of that, and you'd still have space (2.05) left for Kostin or Valimaki.


Basically, the big thing seems to be finding the right time to burn through all your cap space at once so you can maximize the LTIR pool. It looks like near the start of the Four Nations is the window for a 2mil cap hit, and the beginning of March is the window for a 3mil contract.

 

[Fourier]

Wouldn't you rather get a Center over Kostin. We have a lot of bottom 6 wingers.

As I previously said, my posts concerned the acquisition costs, not whether or not he would be the best target.

 

[bucks_oil]

The fact he got his 2nd surgery this late was clearly planned by the Oilers to have him on LTIR until playoffs. Which is good for us.

That's how I see it too... and given the recovery timeline is only 4-8 weeks, it sounds to me like a relatively minor knee surgery (like cartilage) which could be kinda maintenance rather than to fix a catastrophic injury (like MCL/ACL which is usually 4-6 months recovery).

 

[bucks_oil]

He won’t be. Knee surgeries take a year. Question is- why wasn’t this done prior to last year’s trade deadline

Where are you getting that? Not all knee surgeries are the same, and even a reconstructions (ACL/MCL) are typically 6 months for a pro athlete.

Incidence and injury characteristics of medial collateral ligament injuries in male collegiate ice hockey players - PubMed

The lost time relates directly to the severity of injury.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

 

[McFlyingV]

Where are you getting that? Not all knee surgeries are the same, and even a reconstructions (ACL/MCL) are typically 6 months for a pro athlete.

Incidence and injury characteristics of medial collateral ligament injuries in male collegiate ice hockey players - PubMed

The lost time relates directly to the severity of injury.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

MCL repair or reconstruction is a much quicker recovery than ACL reconstruction. Some pro athletes have returned at 6 months from ACL reconstruction, but it is generally not recommended and should be closer to 9 months, albeit testing factors play a large part in a player being cleared to return to on ice.