Kadri Discussion Thread - Back from suspension

[The_Chosen_One]

Winnik was the main contributor to that line's success though, based on adv. metrics.
Check out the WOWY here, generally used for figuring out who drives play amongst common linemates.
http://www.puckalytics.com/players/#!/?pid=1289

Together: 52%; Kadri when apart 47.7%; Winnik when apart 49.3%

We know that Kadri is the creative generator on the line. What Winnik offers is defensive acumen, size which helps create room for Kadri. Obviously he's going to benefit from a line mate like that

Now give Kadri a winger who is steady defensively but can finish. I'm certain that Kadri's number would be a lot better. His problem this season was his linemates lacking the finishing ability.

 

[Menzinger]

Before signing with the Leafs Winnik was seen as a 4th/3rd liner with a career high of 30 points in a season. The fact that some could even think of him as a potential 2nd line guy speaks volume to the impact that Kadri had on his game.

 

[ITM]

Typical of this fanbase to have endless threads defending medicority but thats not what drives his fanbase to defend him, cause who would defend medicority. No, instead they are driven by the slowly dying hope that he will become more than what he is. Last season=softmore slump, but he really is a budding 1C. This season=linemates bring him down, he is not hand-gifted enough opperunities, clarkson wah, wah, wah. Next season there can be no excuses because he will finally be revealed to be what he is-mediocre.

How would you know what drives "his fanbase" to defend Kadri, BW? For that matter, there are those not of his fan base that would when occasion demands, defend the finer points of his game and contribution as a Maple Leaf.

I haven't been encouraged with Kadri's need for discipline, and I dislike the general ongoing impression devil-may-care attitude, but that doesn't mean we - the fan base of The Toronto Maple Leafs - should throw him out with the bathwater.

One thing Kadri aces is the eye test. He has fantastic puck skills. But all the talent in the world can't be expected to navigate past the hurdles of inept pairing, coaching changes and the odd tradition of handing the first center duties to a player producing less per 60 minutes than he was.

"Clarkson, wah, wah." Better yet, "Orr, wah, wah." Not theatrical enough? "Kozun, wah,wah." Are we the only market in the NHL whose in-house malcontents fabricate worst case scenarios as false pretense for our young mishandled top ten draft picks having failed? From your comparison I would say yes, BW. Thankfully, this fan base's want for clarity isn't easily deterred:

"http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/kadri-deserves-leafs-top-line-role/"

The above demonstrates that Kadri's skill and ability to produce isn't the problem. It also casts doubt on this fixative you have that states he's "mediocre". He's not. He's been in an untenable situation that no one on this roster has escaped from. His play may have been average but so was Phil Kessel's. This season where we won once on the road in 2015 is an anomaly of historic proportion. Everyone gets a mulligan (for the sake of trade value for those departing) and the club will move ahead with it's obvious plan to rule out the authentic from the false alarms.

You said to one member: "You said that being 2C implies you are not mediocre. I say you can be mediocre and 2C." But what the member plainly stated was, "Being a 2C does not equal mediocre." The plain inference would be, that there are some 2Cs that are not mediocre, lesser or better than - who knows?. However, continuing with his qualifying statement, "that he [Kadri] is a quality 2C going forward." he clearly provides that very context of better than. His statement doesn't exclude that some 2Cs are mediocre, his statement simply provides allowance for some 2Cs not to be mediocre in the better sense. You probably should have taken the step to ask the member to define "mediocre" and then qualified as to which side of mediocre you inferred.

So you can snicker and snort and tour through the grief and need to genuinely believe, but with real reason to believe that a proper, once in a generation rebuild is on the way, BW, this fan base springs eternal like no other club. This fan base doesn't do "slowly dying hope". This fan base infuses a standing ovation worthy amount of grace into a confounding beast of an "entertainment/sports organization'.

Sure there's some stumbling and fumbling along the way and some uninformed opinions confidently traded as authoritative. But there's a lot to love about being a Toronto Maple Leafs fan. Especially now that we're coming out the other side of this nightmarish season.

I hope Kadri matures. I really do. If he doesn't, the new era is about the crest on the front, not the name on the back. And for goodness sake, Bill, stop acting like the days of Toronto media goldfishing about as unchecked agent provocateurs will remain status quo and something cheekily admired from afar. Talk about "slowly dying hope".

 

[Pookie]

I dont think he's a exactly staple either, but whats the point of trading for a player that will end up with the same potential as Kadri right now?

Low cap hit? Better attitude?

Here's the deal. Whomever plays 2C is likely going to end up in the 50 point range.

Simple matter of ice time and opportunity. Check out players like Stajan, Grabovski even a Moore.

Similar pace.

 

[leafs in five]

cause who would defend medicority

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1510803

 

[Pookie]

That "outlier" represents something along the lines of 25% (ie, not really an 'outlier' from a statistical pov) of his total games played in the NHL.

Do 25% of Crosby's or Stamkos' highest scoring games also not count?

Let's choose another young player we are all familiar with who played the same position and also had great playmaking ability.

Kyle Wellwood had a fantastic outlier year.

At the time of his 42 point 48 game season that represented 38% of his games played. And that was coming off a 40+ point campaign in his "rookie" year.

Only one real good season since. Now, he had a decent career. Made some bucks. But never realized 1C, tear apart the league dreams.

I can't predict the future. You can't either. Arguing as if stats can is really silly don't you think?

 

[Bill Waters*]

How would you know what drives "his fanbase" to defend Kadri, BW? For that matter, there are those not of his fan base that would when occasion demands, defend the finer points of his game and contribution as a Maple Leaf.

That is definitely the impression I get; I like some aspects of his game too.

the fan base of The Toronto Maple Leafs - should throw him out with the bathwater.

and lets not put him on a pedestal either; i have no problem with him as 2C going forwar; then i also have no problem with Bozak as 2C going forward.

One thing Kadri aces is the eye test. He has fantastic puck skills. But all the talent in the world can't be expected to navigate past the hurdles of inept pairing, coaching changes and the odd tradition of handing the first center duties to a player producing less per 60 minutes than he was.

He's got some moves, sometimes: is not a game-changer; Bozak does alot of things better, i.e. break-a-ways

"Clarkson, wah, wah." Better yet, "Orr, wah, wah." Not theatrical enough? "Kozun, wah,wah." Are we the only market in the NHL whose in-house malcontents fabricate worst case scenarios as false pretense for our young mishandled top ten draft picks having failed? From your comparison I would say yes, BW. Thankfully, this fan base's want for clarity isn't easily deterred:

I was merely pointing out the litany of excuses used to absolve Kadri of responsiblity; its time to step-up or go the way of Gagner, Wellwood, Hodgsons, etc.

The above demonstrates that Kadri's skill and ability to produce isn't the problem. It also casts doubt on this fixative you have that states he's "mediocre". He's not. He's been in an untenable situation that no one on this roster has escaped from. His play may have been average but so was Phil Kessel's. This season where we won once on the road in 2015 is an anomaly of historic proportion. Everyone gets a mulligan (for the sake of trade value for those departing) and the club will move ahead with it's obvious plan to rule out the authentic from the false alarms.

NO ONE GETS A MULLIGAN AFTER 3 YEARS OF COLLASPES

You said to one member: "You said that being 2C implies you are not mediocre. I say you can be mediocre and 2C." But what the member plainly stated was, "Being a 2C does not equal mediocre." The plain inference would be, that there are some 2Cs that are not mediocre, lesser or better than - who knows?. However, continuing with his qualifying statement, "that he [Kadri] is a quality 2C going forward." he clearly provides that very context of better than. His statement doesn't exclude that some 2Cs are mediocre, his statement simply provides allowance for some 2Cs not to be mediocre in the better sense. You probably should have taken the step to ask the member to define "mediocre" and then qualified as to which side of mediocre you inferred.

he claimed i was being inconsistent

So you can snicker and snort and tour through the grief and need to genuinely believe, but with real reason to believe that a proper, once in a generation rebuild is on the way, BW, this fan base springs eternal like no other club. This fan base doesn't do "slowly dying hope". This fan base infuses a standing ovation worthy amount of grace into a confounding beast of an "entertainment/sports organization'.

Sure there's some stumbling and fumbling along the way and some uninformed opinions confidently traded as authoritative. But there's a lot to love about being a Toronto Maple Leafs fan. Especially now that we're coming out the other side of this nightmarish season.

soldier on then tin soldier, I will not keep my head in the ground.

I hope Kadri matures. I really do. If he doesn't, the new era is about the crest on the front, not the name on the back. And for goodness sake, Bill, stop acting like the days of Toronto media goldfishing about as unchecked agent provocateurs will remain status quo and something cheekily admired from afar. Talk about "slowly dying hope".

Kadri would not be a hot topic if there wasn't some hope of him becoming more.

 

[Hockey Talker29]

Let's choose another young player we are all familiar with who played the same position and also had great playmaking ability.

Kyle Wellwood had a fantastic outlier year.

At the time of his 42 point 48 game season that represented 38% of his games played. And that was coming off a 40+ point campaign in his "rookie" year.

Only one real good season since. Now, he had a decent career. Made some bucks. But never realized 1C, tear apart the league dreams.

I can't predict the future. You can't either. Arguing as if stats can is really silly don't you think?

Wellwood was horrendous defensively, and had no physicality in his game whatsoever. Kadri is a far better player.

 

[91Kadri91*]

and lets not put him on a pedestal either; i have no problem with him as 2C going forwar;then i also have no problem with Bozak as 2C going forward.

Despite the fact that Kadri is a significantly better player?

 

[Pookie]

Wellwood was horrendous defensively, and had no physicality in his game whatsoever. Kadri is a far better player.

Fine. That may be true.

Subjective opinion aside, my point was in reference to the stats being used to demonstrate his worth.

Wellwood had better numbers, earlier in his career, playing the same position on bad Leaf teams and went on to have a mediocre career.

Again, he got paid and played for many more years. Hats off to him for that. Didn't light the league on fire though. There is no value in using stats of the past to make predictions for the future.

If you want to talk subjective measures about physicality (on some nights) that's fine. That's were we get into a discussion about showing up to camp overweight and other off ice character considerations. Kadri may not be Kessel in terms of his commitment to character and fitness but he certainly isn't Gary Roberts.

 

[Menzinger]

Low cap hit? Better attitude?

Here's the deal. Whomever plays 2C is likely going to end up in the 50 point range.

Simple matter of ice time and opportunity. Check out players like Stajan, Grabovski even a Moore.

Similar pace.

And then you have players like Bozak who have never hit 50 despite getting first line icetime and top unit pp time. Clarkson was also gifted icetime and di
dn't produce.

Icetime isn't sufficient enough to explain point production.

 

[Menzinger]

Let's choose another young player we are all familiar with who played the same position and also had great playmaking ability.

Kyle Wellwood had a fantastic outlier year.

At the time of his 42 point 48 game season that represented 38% of his games played. And that was coming off a 40+ point campaign in his "rookie" year.

Only one real good season since. Now, he had a decent career. Made some bucks. But never realized 1C, tear apart the league dreams.

I can't predict the future. You can't either. Arguing as if stats can is really silly don't you think?

I'd obviously agree that no one here can predict the future - but that doesn't. mean stats can't be useful indicators of how plays can fair in future seasons.

 

[TmlHockeyFan]

He's nothing special. But I wouldn't move him for the sake of moving him. I'd definitely move Bozak over him. If you can get a better return, sure take it, if not keep him.

He seems like a player that can play really well and drive a line but he's inconsistent.

 

[Pookie]

And then you have players like Bozak who have never hit 50 despite getting fiest line icetime and top unit pp time. Clarkson was also gifted icetime and di
dn't produce.

Icetime isn't sufficient enough to explain point production.

True.

But let's be honest about Kadri. 39 points this year despite ice time. Like Wellwood, we don't know what his future holds. Maybe a blip. Maybe a trend.

 

[Snow Dog]

That is definitely the impression I get; I like some aspects of his game too.



and lets not put him on a pedestal either; i have no problem with him as 2C going forwar; then i also have no problem with Bozak as 2C going forward.



He's got some moves, sometimes: is not a game-changer; Bozak does alot of things better, i.e. break-a-ways



I was merely pointing out the litany of excuses used to absolve Kadri of responsiblity; its time to step-up or go the way of Gagner, Wellwood, Hodgsons, etc.





NO ONE GETS A MULLIGAN AFTER 3 YEARS OF COLLASPES



he claimed i was being inconsistent



soldier on then tin soldier, I will not keep my head in the ground.



Kadri would not be a hot topic if there wasn't some hope of him becoming more.

Political double talk?

 

[leafs in five]

"despite ice time"

 

[ITM]

That is definitely the impression I get; I like some aspects of his game too.

Leaving the eye test aside, what aspects of his numerical superiority do you dislike when compared with Bozak? Also, could you follow up to explain your comprehensive insight into Kadri's fan base? That was the first part of the question you partially addressed.

and lets not put him on a pedestal either; i have no problem with him as 2C going forwar; then i also have no problem with Bozak as 2C going forward.

Implication let's not place him unnecessarily higher than he should be. Absolutely. But you would agree successful clubs make it their habit to reward superior play with primary opportunity wouldn't you? So when Kadri's pp/60min is higher than Bozak's, when he was nigh a ppg under Wilson in an albeit shortened season, isn't the truth of the matter, that Bozak is more of a constant soother to Kessel's preferences? And if Kessel ain't happy, ain't nobody happy?

He's got some moves, sometimes: is not a game-changer; Bozak does alot of things better, i.e. break-a-ways

Oh <palms forehead>. Hah. Just got it, BW. Good one...Has to be a joke. Has to be. He was a game-changer in junior. Seemed to be in the AHL. Thrived under Wilson's system at a near ppg pace in an albeit season and given Bozak's career -74 and Kadri's -4 and the fact a younger Kadri has hit 50 points while a Kessel-covered Bozak hasn't.

I always say it isn't a party until BW arrives.!

I was merely pointing out the litany of excuses used to absolve Kadri of responsiblity; its time to step-up or go the way of Gagner, Wellwood, Hodgsons, etc.

This fan base has seldom absolved Kadri of his responsibility, nor neglected that there should be more...However, if we can sing Reilly's praises, see the good in JVR, and gush at what Nylander could be, I think it's irresponsible not to guard a player's dignity when there's evidence to do so.

I don't see the Hodgson, Wellwood comparison and the Gagner comparison is just as elastic when placed next to Bozak. Gagner is a -104 and like Bozak hasn't hit 50 points. So again, I think we're selecting based on something other than hot button topic pushing, BW.

NO ONE GETS A MULLIGAN AFTER 3 YEARS OF COLLASPES

I see how you might have missed the point about mediocrity and 2Cs now. The context was the season being a historic anomaly. And it was. The "Mulligan" is connected to the organization's future welfare. As in, other clubs may think one thing or another about certain players (Phaneuf,Kessel,Bozak,Kadri, Bernier), our assets in a word. So for the benefit of that end, let's provide the benefit of the doubt and apply the historic bottom as a lift-off point with which to redeem what's left.

Nazem Kadri is not responsible for 3 years of collapse any more than Kessel is or Phaneuf is or Randy Carlyle...There is a systemic culprit that seems to have no solution apart from gutting the thing.

Your statement impugns Morgan Reilly btw.

he claimed i was being inconsistent

Or consistently confounding, to play the game. Looking back on the exchange, do you really think it needed the distinction you provided?

soldier on then tin soldier, I will not keep my head in the ground.

These threads don't exactly provide foxholes, Bill, now do they? Begs the question, if I'm "soldiering on" and you refuse to keep your head in the ground, are you saying, I'm active, and you're stationary and that neither of us is cowering?

Or is it your Ad Hom. way of obfuscating error?

By definition, every fan is a "tin soldier". Inherent in the word, "fan" or "fanatic" is zeal. If you're a moderate "fan", BW it begs the question what does "moderate fanatical enthusiam" look like?

Kadri would not be a hot topic if there wasn't some hope of him becoming more.

Now is this "hope" a different hope from the invective "slowly dying hope" you threw at "his fan base" or another needlessly distinguished universal term that you and you alone have claim to depending on opportunity for appearance of momentary advantage?

 

[Hockey Talker29]

Fine. That may be true.

Subjective opinion aside, my point was in reference to the stats being used to demonstrate his worth.

Wellwood had better numbers, earlier in his career, playing the same position on bad Leaf teams and went on to have a mediocre career.

Again, he got paid and played for many more years. Hats off to him for that. Didn't light the league on fire though. There is no value in using stats of the past to make predictions for the future.

If you want to talk subjective measures about physicality (on some nights) that's fine. That's were we get into a discussion about showing up to camp overweight and other off ice character considerations. Kadri may not be Kessel in terms of his commitment to character and fitness but he certainly isn't Gary Roberts.

All Wellwood had was high point totals. Kadr has the point totals, as well as tthe possession efficiency. The latter has proven to be a far better predictor of the former than any other individual measure.

Most players with Kadri's stats end up being very good players. We're not talking about a one-dimensional forward.

 

[Pookie]

All Wellwood had was high point totals. Kadr has the point totals, as well as tthe possession efficiency. The latter has proven to be a far better predictor of the former than any other individual measure.

Most players with Kadri's stats end up being very good players. We're not talking about a one-dimensional forward.

So when the subjective doesn't work, we go back to some ratio and add a blanket statement that it is a better predictor than any other measure of success... even better than the actual success (points)?

Let's play that game. Which possession efficiency would you care to measure? War on Ice goes back to 2002.

Amonst Leaf Centers with more than 100 games:

CF%
Wellwood - 52.92

(... just a second, I have to scroll to the second page, past Alyn McCauley, Dominique Moore, Mikail Grabovoski, Mats Sundin, Nik Antropov, Robert Reichel, Tom Fitzgerald, and the Leafs best with more than 100 games John Pohl (wonder how that prediction worked out)?

Kadri - 47.77

Let's try CF % Rel

Probably aren't going to use that stat as that doesn't look too good. Maybe CF % Rel?

That's a lot better for Kadri.

Kadri - 3.91
Wellwood - 3.19

Is that statistically sigificant? I guess if it is in favour of Kadri it is statistically significant. Worth noting that Grabovski was at 4.77. He went on to greatness didn't he?

And predictor you say? I'll just highlight that the following players:

Dominique Moore, John Pohl, Nik Antropov, Matt Stajan and our two Mr. Wellwood and Mr Kadri....

....all had much higher ratings than Mats Sundin who clocked in on page 2 with a .79. I guess Sundin didn't deserve that big contract eh? Pretty useless future potential.

Is Kadri full of "Puck Luck" - A word about Outliers

You know, sometimes you have to speak the language to communicate and I feel good that we are communicating here.

I'd like to go back to something from a few pages back. "Puck Luck." I personally think it's a silly concept, to try to measure luck. Someone pointed out that it simply factors out random events. Allows you to regress to the mean so to speak. Certainly a plausible theory when it comes to explaining how the Leafs started so well but then plummet, just playing above the mean?

Well guess who, since 2002, has the highest PDO rating for any given season (with more than 10 games)?

Yep. Kadri fan club members might not want to keep reading further.

Kadri. In his 48 game, 34 point season. 108.17

Wellwood's luckiest season by the way had him at 101.55

Kadri experienced by far the luckiest season of any Leaf Center over the last 12-13 years.

PDO Part 2

I thought maybe this is unfair. I mean I just ran the data vs Centers. Let's try ALL PLAYERS since 2002, with more than 20 games.

Yep. There you go. It's still Kadri. Same season. Same 108.17.

Luckiest season, of any Leaf player, playing any position, over the last 12-13 seasons.

Can we safely call this a lucky, outlier season now? Or do we need to keep referring to it as part of his potential?

I'm going to call him really lucky that year and I think we should all do that to be consistent. I assume that the stats validate my conclusion...?

 

[thewave]

So when the subjective doesn't work, we go back to some ratio and add a blanket statement that it is a better predictor than any other measure of success... even better than the actual success (points)?

Let's play that game. Which possession efficiency would you care to measure? War on Ice goes back to 2002.

Amonst Leaf Centers with more than 100 games:

CF%
Wellwood - 52.92

(... just a second, I have to scroll to the second page, past Alyn McCauley, Dominique Moore, Mikail Grabovoski, Mats Sundin, Nik Antropov, Robert Reichel, Tom Fitzgerald, and the Leafs best with more than 100 games John Pohl (wonder how that prediction worked out)?

Kadri - 47.77

Let's try CF % Rel

Probably aren't going to use that stat as that doesn't look too good. Maybe CF % Rel?

That's a lot better for Kadri.

Kadri - 3.91
Wellwood - 3.19

Is that statistically sigificant? I guess if it is in favour of Kadri it is statistically significant. Worth noting that Grabovski was at 4.77. He went on to greatness didn't he?

And predictor you say? I'll just highlight that the following players:

Dominique Moore, John Pohl, Nik Antropov, Matt Stajan and our two Mr. Wellwood and Mr Kadri....

....all had much higher ratings than Mats Sundin who clocked in on page 2 with a .79. I guess Sundin didn't deserve that big contract eh? Pretty useless future potential.

Is Kadri full of "Puck Luck" - A word about Outliers

You know, sometimes you have to speak the language to communicate and I feel good that we are communicating here.

I'd like to go back to something from a few pages back. "Puck Luck." I personally think it's a silly concept, to try to measure luck. Someone pointed out that it simply factors out random events. Allows you to regress to the mean so to speak. Certainly a plausible theory when it comes to explaining how the Leafs started so well but then plummet, just playing above the mean?

Well guess who, since 2002, has the highest PDO rating for any given season (with more than 10 games)?

Yep. Kadri fan club members might not want to keep reading further.

Kadri. In his 48 game, 34 point season. 108.17

Wellwood's luckiest season by the way had him at 101.55

Kadri experienced by far the luckiest season of any Leaf Center over the last 12-13 years.

PDO Part 2

I thought maybe this is unfair. I mean I just ran the data vs Centers. Let's try ALL PLAYERS since 2002, with more than 20 games.

Yep. There you go. It's still Kadri. Same season. Same 108.17.

Luckiest season, of any Leaf player, playing any position, over the last 12-13 seasons.

Can we safely call this a lucky, outlier season now? Or do we need to keep referring to it as part of his potential?

I'm going to call him really lucky that year and I think we should all do that to be consistent. I assume that the stats validate my conclusion...?

Kadri is a great player on a bad team with bad linemates.

Grabo was good last year and good at the start of this year until he got rocked and concussed. He got rocked a second time as well so you really can't say he is a junk player. Komarov pre concussion was more effective as well.

 

[leafs in five]

i thought you didn't believe in luck? or at least the capacity of any stats or record to measure it?

 

[Pookie]

Kadri is a great player on a bad team with bad linemates.

Grabo was good last year and good at the start of this year until he got rocked and concussed. He got rocked a second time as well so you really can't say he is a junk player. Komarov pre concussion was more effective as well.

Didn't say he was junk. In fact, I loved the way he played. Gamer. If Kadri had his game work ethic, this would be a less interesting discussion.

The point was in reference to the possession stats being a predictor.

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

I'm sorry, but was that whole post just to inform us that Kadri was scoring at an unsustainable rate in the lockout season? You're a couple of years late in reporting that news, I'm afraid.

What most people object to is this idea that you should filter out a player's best seasons and ignore them altogether because... uh... reasons? If you're going to do that, why not filter out Kadri's worst 48 game stretch too?

Winnik was the main contributor to that line's success though, based on adv. metrics.
Check out the WOWY here, generally used for figuring out who drives play amongst common linemates.
http://www.puckalytics.com/players/#!/?pid=1289

Together: 52%; Kadri when apart 47.7%; Winnik when apart 49.3%

They both did better together than apart. How does that show that Winnik was the one driving possession? Keep in mind that Winnik has a >56 CF% playing in front of Fleury on the Pens. I'm sure Kadri could have improved his possession stats on the Pens, even with their recent slump.

 

[Pookie]

i thought you didn't believe in luck? or at least the capacity of any stats or record to measure it?

I did say it was silly above. Luck is a construct but hey, "advanced stats" users point to it all the time to explain why the Leafs play well and then stumble. Regression to the mean and all that.

So hey, give the fan club what they want. Look at the PDO numbers. What are they telling us? Kadri's "break out season" was the luckiest season of any Leaf player
, in any position, over the last 12-13 seasons.

I can go with that. Outlier. Lucky. Whatever helps keep the peace.

 

[Gallagbi]

People know Wellwood racked up points on a specific PP set up in a high PP (and high scoring) league. That PP set up lead Jason Allison to a near PPG season....then he never played again.

I never minded Wellwood, but he was given a lot of opportunity and his points were usually tied to good situations. First PP unit and his 42/48 season was spent mostly on a line with Antropov and Mats.