JVR discussion thread - Stay - Go - Play ?

[Faltorvo]

Awesome Matthews....nah you got me....Blake Wheeler?

touche

i gotta give you that one

 

[Pookie]

Take a lesson from the 2015 Blue Jays on asset management.

If you get locked in nostalgia and chasing the moment, that moment that was the 2015 playoffs can quickly become the moment of the 2017 worst record in baseball with aging, injured core players and little depth to replace them.

If JVR has peaked, it's time to move on.

 

[Harold Ballard]

touche

i gotta give you that one

YES!! lol

I wish JVR had Wheels' drivetrain..like him JVR would turn into a 70 point guy.

 

[Vexed]

Take a lesson from the 2015 Blue Jays on asset management.

If you get locked in nostalgia and chasing the moment, that moment that was the 2015 playoffs can quickly become the moment of the 2017 worst record in baseball with aging, injured core players and little depth to replace them.

If JVR has peaked, it's time to move on.

I get the sentiment but to be fair this Jays path was set the moment AA started dealing b4 getting fired. It was always going to happen.

On topic, I personally don't think we should be looking to resign JvR at all so I'm with you there. I'd be looking to move him for sure on principle so it would take some sort of crazy, unlikely deal short on salary and term to get me to change my mind

 

[Gary Nylund]

bridge deals for high end players are going the way of the dodo, sign them at the end of their ELC long term and relax.

A first year elite 1C 40 goal scorer is ages away from a blank check? 2 more 40 goal seasons and blank check is what he gets.

Yup.

are they now?

have not seen a elc over 7.5m yet and that was to the elite ekblad, i don't call that a blank cheque


nylander,marner will top out at 6m max if they improve.

one just needs to look at the league examples as a touch stone.

If Nylander and Marner improve, you don't think they deserve to be paid as much as Ekblad? Ekblad is worth 7.5m and our guys are 6m max?

I must be missing something here.

 

[MikeBabcock]

I don't know why Lou wouldn't be able to piece this deal into two parts. We can pay him league max over the next two years as Matthews and Marner stay on their ELCs.

I was thinking that maybe pay him 10M for two years then resign him to to a 4.2M deal for 3 more years, this works out to a 6.5M avg for 5 years but structuring it this way gives the Leafs a lot of leeway cap wise.

Of course JVR would have to make an agreement to sign the second deal before signing the first, I don't know how this would work but Lou can figure it. I also don't know if the league would consider this cap circumvention either.

 

[ShaneFalco]

JVR will be looking after JVR, not the Leafs. He'll go for the 6-7 year deal at max money (6+ is my guess)
It's time to trade him in the off-season

 

[phillipmike]

The beauty of our forward depth is that you pretty much can stick anyone with Matthews and Nylander or Kadri and Marner and you will get production. Its what Chicago does with Kane and Toews, Pittsburgh with Crosby and Malkin etc. The Leafs dont need to spend more money on wing help. With an elite centremen like Matthews and wingers like Marner and Nylander the need to lock up JVR unless it is a team friendly deal (likely wont happen) doesnt make sense.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The beauty of our forward depth is that you pretty much can stick anyone with Matthews and Nylander or Kadri and Marner and you will get production. Its what Chicago does with Kane and Toews, Pittsburgh with Crosby and Malkin etc. The Leafs dont need to spend more money on wing help. With an elite centremen like Matthews and wingers like Marner and Nylander the need to lock up JVR unless it is a team friendly deal (likely wont happen) doesnt make sense.

Yeah the problem isn't that JVR doesn't deserve to be paid, it's that it may not make sense for us to pay him market value. He's maybe the 9th most important player on the team behind the big 3, Kadri, Andersen, Rielly, Gardiner and Zaitsev. Paying our 9th most important player over 6m - I just don't see how that math can be made to work, it's like trying to divide by zero or something.

If anyone can make an equation work that divides by zero I guess it would be Lou. I'm skeptical though.

 

[phillipmike]

Yeah the problem isn't that JVR doesn't deserve to be paid, it's that it may not make sense for us to pay him market value. He's maybe the 9th most important player on the team behind the big 3, Kadri, Andersen, Rielly, Gardiner and Zaitsev. Paying our 9th most important player over 6m - I just don't see how that math can be made to work, it's like trying to divide by zero or something.

If anyone can make an equation work that divides by zero I guess it would be Lou. I'm skeptical though.

Exactly. I am not saying that he isnt good because i would have him retire as a Leaf but the money doesnt make sense in a cap world. Like you said probably your 9th most important piece and he is a winger. If he were a centre or a defensemen then it would be a different story or at least a harder decision. With Matthews, Nylander, Marner and Kadri they can produce NHL wingers on their own.

If the Leafs can trade JVR/Bozak/Leo for picks and turn them into defensive help or better long term NHL ready pieces then that would be ideal. If not then play the year with them and evaluate after the season. I suspect Babcock would want Leo, Bozak and JVR back in that order.

 

[Jeypic]

I like jvr, but I think everything has aligned pretty well to trade him this summer. He's in his prime, and has the playoffs to showcase it. We are loaded on offence, we need defense. He's our best trade chip. Interesting situation with Las Vegas this year. Cap room is likely an issue moving forward.

If we can't find a trade partner this offseason I see us losing him to free agency, as we'll probably be competing again next year and not willing to tear the team up at the deadline.

 

[BlueBaron]

I don't know why Lou wouldn't be able to piece this deal into two parts. We can pay him league max over the next two years as Matthews and Marner stay on their ELCs.

I was thinking that maybe pay him 10M for two years then resign him to to a 4.2M deal for 3 more years, this works out to a 6.5M avg for 5 years but structuring it this way gives the Leafs a lot of leeway cap wise.

Of course JVR would have to make an agreement to sign the second deal before signing the first, I don't know how this would work but Lou can figure it. I also don't know if the league would consider this cap circumvention either.

That is called collusion. Secret backroom deals that try to circumvent the cap are generally frowned upon.

What we could do however is massively front load his contract to make him easier to trade later if needed to a team that only cares about real dollars and not cap hit.

 

[BlueBaron]

Yeah the problem isn't that JVR doesn't deserve to be paid, it's that it may not make sense for us to pay him market value. He's maybe the 9th most important player on the team behind the big 3, Kadri, Andersen, Rielly, Gardiner and Zaitsev. Paying our 9th most important player over 6m - I just don't see how that math can be made to work, it's like trying to divide by zero or something.

If anyone can make an equation work that divides by zero I guess it would be Lou. I'm skeptical though.

The 9th best player statement kind of distorts how these things seem to work on team payrolls.

Almost every team pays their goalie and 3 D. What is more relevant is what they pay their top 5 forwards.

Chicago for example pays the their top 5 forwards 34 Mil.

If Kadri and JVR came in at a combined 11 mil that would leave us 23 mil to pay the big 3. If we call Auston 8 that is 7.5 for both Marner and Nylander. I do not believe the 3 of them are going to cost that. If Nylander and Marner settle in at say 6 that is 3 mil to add to your number 4 D.

Totally doable.

If we think Auston is going to command 10 it still leave 6.5 for the other 2 which still seems high. Now add to that a rising cap and I have to think this is not as impossible as you are making it out to be. The 9th best player argument really sounds good, made me double take myself, but when you look at the numbers I'm not sure it holds up.

 

[phillipmike]

It is possible to retain him but is it wise to? Not a position of need in my opinion to use that type of money to keep him when he will be 29; if he were 26 or younger then sure but at his age, his position and the money he would demand it isnt a slam dunk yes when you have at list 4 players that can bring what he brings on the score sheet (again it would be a different story for me if he was a centre).

 

[TMLegend]

5.25M X 5.

I lean towards trading him though, for a lesser but and cheaper roster player and a few prospects.

 

[Faltorvo]

YES!! lol

I wish JVR had Wheels' drivetrain..like him JVR would turn into a 70 point guy.

actually every time i watch Phillys Simmons, i look at JVR and go

"like that, play like that" lol

 

[Faltorvo]

Exactly. I am not saying that he isnt good because i would have him retire as a Leaf but the money doesnt make sense in a cap world. Like you said probably your 9th most important piece and he is a winger. If he were a centre or a defensemen then it would be a different story or at least a harder decision. With Matthews, Nylander, Marner and Kadri they can produce NHL wingers on their own.

If the Leafs can trade JVR/Bozak/Leo for picks and turn them into defensive help or better long term NHL ready pieces then that would be ideal. If not then play the year with them and evaluate after the season. I suspect Babcock would want Leo, Bozak and JVR back in that order.

thou shall not touch uncle Leo

probably the only one that will ink a deal that fits

 

[Commander Clueless]

thou shall not touch uncle Leo

probably the only one that will ink a deal that fits

I agree.

As long as his contract demands don't skyrocket, Uncle Leo stays long term.

I also think a short term contract extension for Bozak would be great, assuming he's down for it.

I'd love to keep JVR, but I'm afraid he'll price himself out of our range. We'll see.

6x6 is more than reasonable for a guy like him, but I don't know that we can afford it in a couple years. I think he could get more on the market.

 

[Bluelines]

Not sure if he is a guy that you can keep, if Matthews, Nylander, Marner, + other young players all stick around, sometime in the next few years they are going to get a decent pay day. You'll probably have a defender or 2 making decent coin in the next few years too... so the question is will signing JVR take away valuable cap space that we could use for the true core?

I like JVR, I think he is a darn good player but I don't think he will be here long term, the next contract he signs will probably be his retirement contract, he will be lookign for 7 years 6+ mil range.

 

[936LeafsOilers997]

touche

i gotta give you that one

Maybe also Pacciorrety..

 

[BlueBaron]

It is possible to retain him but is it wise to? Not a position of need in my opinion to use that type of money to keep him when he will be 29; if he were 26 or younger then sure but at his age, his position and the money he would demand it isnt a slam dunk yes when you have at list 4 players that can bring what he brings on the score sheet (again it would be a different story for me if he was a centre).

Not a position of need? Have you not seen our LW? I get his age is not ideal and that is why a long deal might not make sense, but 3 years does if he will go for that.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The 9th best player statement kind of distorts how these things seem to work on team payrolls.

Almost every team pays their goalie and 3 D. What is more relevant is what they pay their top 5 forwards.

Chicago for example pays the their top 5 forwards 34 Mil.

If Kadri and JVR came in at a combined 11 mil that would leave us 23 mil to pay the big 3. If we call Auston 8 that is 7.5 for both Marner and Nylander. I do not believe the 3 of them are going to cost that. If Nylander and Marner settle in at say 6 that is 3 mil to add to your number 4 D.

Totally doable.

If we think Auston is going to command 10 it still leave 6.5 for the other 2 which still seems high. Now add to that a rising cap and I have to think this is not as impossible as you are making it out to be. The 9th best player argument really sounds good, made me double take myself, but when you look at the numbers I'm not sure it holds up.

How much were their top 5 forwards being paid when they won their cups? Don't forget that part of the reason for their success was the cap-circumventing deal they had wit Hossa, a luxury we don't have.

 

[Mess]

Trading JVR for a top 4 Dman and then paying that $$ you would pay him to pay the top 4 Dman instead would be better cap management because Leafs have lots of kids up front to replace him and his offense.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Trading JVR for a top 4 Dman and then paying that $$ you would pay him to pay the top 4 Dman instead would be better cap management because Leafs have lots of kids up front to replace him and his offense.

What kind of top 4 Dman do you hope to get for a winger with one year left on his contract?

 

[phillipmike]

Not a position of need? Have you not seen our LW? I get his age is not ideal and that is why a long deal might not make sense, but 3 years does if he will go for that.

Not concerned at all. Wingers can move from side to side. Not ideal but not worth paying JVR 6 million long term.

Hyman is glued to the 1st line with Matthews. Leo is your 3rd line LW. Martin is your 4th line LW. Then you have Marner, Nylander, Kapenen, and Brown on the right side for the forseeable future. Either one of Brown or Kapenen learns to play the LW or their options are 4th or we trade them for a LW.

Got Leivo and Rychel as LW depth too.

Hyman-Matthews-Nylander
XXXXX-Bozak-Marner
Leo-Kadri-Brown
Martin-XXXX-Kapenen

Kapenen isnt going to be a 4th liner. So someone on the right side will move over.

And if not then you prospects coming up or trades to be made.

JVR isnt signing for 3 years. Look at what Okposo, Ladd, Lucic, Backes etc. got. He is going for at least 5 years and likely 6 or 7 years. Even Loui Eriksson got 6 years and Frans Nielson got 5.