JVR discussion thread - Stay - Go - Play ?

[Ziggdiezan]

Best thing for the leafs would be to sign him to 6x6 and then trade him. Get a huge return I bet.

 

[Stand Witness]

JVR is in that group of players that is really, really hard to get at good value.

He is easily worth 5.5M-6M but you don't really want to give him the term he is going to want. You know if he hits the open market he is probably getting 6.5M+ with term which you don't want to compete with.

Not an elite player but a great player.

I am more open to keeping him now because the Leafs are clearly ready, but the price still has to be right.

 

[highslot]

with more time, nylander and marner can make up for the loss of production if we trade him.

also, kapanen has played lw and johnnsson can as well. korshov is also in the pipes as well as grunstrom and timashov.

also, if we trade bozak, that's 4 million or so freed up.

we will also have horton, lupul and robidas coming off the books and the cap should be going up in a few years.

i'd say offer him 5.5x5 and see if he stays. otherwise, trade for d or picks. this draft will be a great opp, as teams like minny and anaheim and columbus may not want to lose d for nothing.

 

[Kubus]

You guys know we don't have to make room for the kids today? I'm sure Lou will sign him to a reasonable deal, and there is nothing that states we can't trade him down the road.

Right now JVR is an important part of the team and I would like to see him here for the foreseeable future; however, if at some point we need to make cap space we can move him then.

As for salary I expect he gets 6x6 or 6.5*5

 

[Legion34]

Is the Cap confirmed to stay flat? Jvr is an interesting case. He has elevated in the playoffs, but seems to wane throughout the year. We need another D, not offense, but we have basically no LW.

I think you trade him to Minny/Vegas for a Brodin for example. But saying we want to keep him, looking at the long term picture, Our core:

The D is mostly sorted if we believe Z for 4.5

Reilly Zaitsev---- 10 million
Jake XXXXX----- 4 million
XXXX Carrick----- 3 million

Add a 5.5 dman and you are looking at 23 million for your D core. Plus 7 Million for Goaltending (Kessel 1.2, Andy= 5, Back up = .8)

So that is ballbark 30 million with 43 left for forwards to fight over.


XXXXXX-----Matthews (9?)-----Marner (6.5?)
XXXXXX-----Nylander(6.5?)----Kapanen
XXXXXX-----Kadri (4.5)----Brown
Martin(2.5)-Gauthier (1)------Hyman


Matthews will be the tough one as he can write his cheque. He could be a rocket winner and have 3 40 goal seasons by this time. Not many comparables coming off first contract. Marner and Willy are easier. Gaudreau, Monahan, Mackinnon, Barkov, Scheifle, Seguin, Hall etc all signed for 5.5-6.5.

So that's 30 million for the core. I mean, Hyman and Brown should come in under 4 combined. Need 3 forwards left.

That gives 9 million for the last 3 forwards.

If Jvr wants to stay and we want him, I say load up on length. Ladd got a 38.5 7 year deal . Try to get a 39 x 8 year deal for a cap of 4.85 ballpark.

Load it up for the first 3-4 years: 7,6,6,5,5,4,3,3.

It's doable, if the team looks at him as a good fit going forward for them.

 

[White Shadow]

Unless JVR is willing to sign a contract that is as team friendly as his current deal is - extremely doubtful, I move him now for the Dman (or assets we can use to acquire said Dman) we so badly need.

He is the biggest and most replaceable trade chip we currently have.

 

[Willy Stylez]

Its the term, dont want a deal longer then 4. Would prefer 3 x 6.5. But he's going to go for a big contract and has all the right to do so.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Unless JVR is willing to sign a contract that is as team friendly as his current deal is - extremely doubtful, I move him now for the Dman (or assets we can use to acquire said Dman) we so badly need.

He is the biggest and most replaceable trade chip we currently have.

Just how big a chip is he though? With one year left on his contract, he's basically a rental and because of that, I'm no longer optimistic about getting a big return for him. I don't see anyone giving up a solid Dman for him or a top notch prospect, maybe a late 1st round pick?

We should probably put the trade JVR talk on hold until after the playoffs - if we win the cup it's hard to imagine breaking up the team like that.

 

[Menzinger]

Something to keep in mind is that his production is likely to take a dip as he ages past 29, happens to most players.

Il also strongly suspect that the Leafs big three will be making close to a combined 25ish million post ELCs, need to save dollars and thrbLeafs have plenty of cheap replacements available. Winger depth is the strongest element of the prospect pool

 

[White Shadow]

Just how big a chip is he though? With one year left on his contract, he's basically a rental and because of that, I'm no longer optimistic about getting a big return for him. I don't see anyone giving up a solid Dman for him or a top notch prospect, maybe a late 1st round pick?

We should probably put the trade JVR talk on hold until after the playoffs - if we win the cup it's hard to imagine breaking up the team like that.

Vanek and O'Reilly were both traded going into their last year of a team-friendly contract and both returned huge value to their former teams.

 

[Faltorvo]

Maybe also Pacciorrety..

damnit

 

[SprDaVE]

Just how big a chip is he though? With one year left on his contract, he's basically a rental and because of that, I'm no longer optimistic about getting a big return for him. I don't see anyone giving up a solid Dman for him or a top notch prospect, maybe a late 1st round pick?

We should probably put the trade JVR talk on hold until after the playoffs - if we win the cup it's hard to imagine breaking up the team like that.

Plenty of teams have given up a crap ton for just a couple months, aka an actual rental. I don't think I have to pull out a list of rentals here for you to look at.

Lucic was traded for a lot entering the last year of his contract as well as a recent example. A mid round 1st, Martin Jones (aka the Sharks #1 goaltender) and Miller (solid young RHD defenseman). I'm sure there are other examples. The Kings were never seriously going to be able to re-sign him unless he took a big discount.

JVR should and will have very good value this summer if the Leafs put on fielders on him. Don't underestimate the value of adding a 30 goal scorer to a lineup, even if his contract is one year. Rival fans on this board will tell you otherwise, but it's to be expected. Some of them wouldn't even give up a mid round pick for him even if they could.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Vanek and O'Reilly were both traded going into their last year of a team-friendly contract and both returned huge value to their former teams.

Thanks for the info, I admit I don't really follow trades around the league that closely so I'm probably not the best judge of value here, maybe JVR is worth more than I thought. Based on those trades then (assuming they're similar like you say), what then do you think we could expect in a trade for JVR?

 

[Faltorvo]

Is the Cap confirmed to stay flat? Jvr is an interesting case. He has elevated in the playoffs, but seems to wane throughout the year. We need another D, not offense, but we have basically no LW.

I think you trade him to Minny/Vegas for a Brodin for example. But saying we want to keep him, looking at the long term picture, Our core:

The D is mostly sorted if we believe Z for 4.5

Reilly Zaitsev---- 10 million
Jake XXXXX----- 4 million
XXXX Carrick----- 3 million

Add a 5.5 dman and you are looking at 23 million for your D core. Plus 7 Million for Goaltending (Kessel 1.2, Andy= 5, Back up = .8)

So that is ballbark 30 million with 43 left for forwards to fight over.


XXXXXX-----Matthews (9?)-----Marner (6.5?)
XXXXXX-----Nylander(6.5?)----Kapanen
XXXXXX-----Kadri (4.5)----Brown
Martin(2.5)-Gauthier (1)------Hyman


Matthews will be the tough one as he can write his cheque. He could be a rocket winner and have 3 40 goal seasons by this time. Not many comparables coming off first contract. Marner and Willy are easier. Gaudreau, Monahan, Mackinnon, Barkov, Scheifle, Seguin, Hall etc all signed for 5.5-6.5.

So that's 30 million for the core. I mean, Hyman and Brown should come in under 4 combined. Need 3 forwards left.

That gives 9 million for the last 3 forwards.

If Jvr wants to stay and we want him, I say load up on length. Ladd got a 38.5 7 year deal . Try to get a 39 x 8 year deal for a cap of 4.85 ballpark.

Load it up for the first 3-4 years: 7,6,6,5,5,4,3,3.

It's doable, if the team looks at him as a good fit going forward for them.

pretty solid and honest analyses

but umm 1 thing

if i understand the cap rules correctly

we have to be cap compliant the day before the season starts and then after the season starts hortons 5.5m ltir cap relief is available?

 

[Gary Nylund]

Plenty of teams have given up a crap ton for just a couple months, aka an actual rental. I don't think I have to pull out a list of rentals here for you to look at.

Lucic was traded for a lot entering the last year of his contract as well as a recent example. A mid round 1st, Martin Jones (aka the Sharks #1 goaltender) and Miller (solid young RHD defenseman). I'm sure there are other examples. The Kings were never seriously going to be able to re-sign him unless he took a massive discount.

JVR should and will have very good value this summer if the Leafs put on fielders on him. Don't underestimate the value of adding a 30 goal scorer to a lineup, even if his contract is one year.

Thank you for that info! I must admit, the Lucik trade is encouraging, it sounds like JVR is worth more than I thought.

 

[Gary Nylund]

pretty solid and honest analyses

but umm 1 thing

if i understand the cap rules correctly

we have to be cap compliant the day before the season starts and then after the season starts hortons 5.5m ltir cap relief is available?

I believe that is correct and that does complicate things.

 

[SprDaVE]

Thank you for that info! I must admit, the Lucik trade is encouraging, it sounds like JVR is worth more than I thought.

No problem.

I think the Leafs can probably get a solid return for JVR. They may not be able to get exactly what they want one for one but if they can get the best value, which is likely to a package of pick(s) and a good prospect, they can probably turn around and flip that for what they need.

 

[White Shadow]

Thanks for the info, I admit I don't really follow trades around the league that closely so I'm probably not the best judge of value here, maybe JVR is worth more than I thought. Based on those trades then (assuming they're similar like you say), what then do you think we could expect in a trade for JVR?

I think he gets a 1st and a 3rd or a 1st and a 2nd depending on how high the 1st is.

Vanek returned Moulson, 1st and a 2nd, but was a better player than JVR ever has been at the time he was traded

 

[Vexed]

Thank you for that info! I must admit, the Lucik trade is encouraging, it sounds like JVR is worth more than I thought.

In most cap sports a player with 1yr remaining is more valuable than a player with multiple years. Usually a long contract lessons the number of teams a player can be traded to while a player with 1yr left not only increases the bidders (and hopefully value) but also helps teams gain medium term flexibility while still getting immediate value.

 

[Gary Nylund]

In most cap sports a player with 1yr remaining is more valuable than a player with multiple years. Usually a long contract lessons the number of teams a player can be traded to while a player with 1yr left not only increases the bidders (and hopefully value) but also helps teams gain medium term flexibility while still getting immediate value.

My guess is that isn't the case with JVR as his contract was such a sweetheart deal.

 

[Faltorvo]

Something to keep in mind is that his production is likely to take a dip as he ages past 29, happens to most players.

Il also strongly suspect that the Leafs big three will be making close to a combined 25ish million post ELCs, need to save dollars and thrbLeafs have plenty of cheap replacements available. Winger depth is the strongest element of the prospect pool

WHAT???????????


maybe they hit 20m, maybe , i don't think it will even get that high

 

[White Shadow]

My guess is that isn't the case with JVR as his contract was such a sweetheart deal.

I would agree with this. There would most likely have been more teams interested as well if we traded him with 2 years or more left on his sweetheart contract.

 

[Faltorvo]

In most cap sports a player with 1yr remaining is more valuable than a player with multiple years. Usually a long contract lessons the number of teams a player can be traded to while a player with 1yr left not only increases the bidders (and hopefully value) but also helps teams gain medium term flexibility while still getting immediate value.

lets not forget we are also adding a franchise that atm has a 0 cap hit.

one that will not be getting much scoring from the exp draft.

 

[Vexed]

My guess is that isn't the case with JVR as his contract was such a sweetheart deal.

Probably true but that might have made it just about even. Its so hard to say in hypotheticals. The sweetheart deal just made him too valuable to us to trade away I think.

 

[White Shadow]

WHAT???????????


maybe they hit 20m, maybe , i don't think it will even get that high

Forsberg, Scheifele and Monahan all signed for $6M or just over $6M and only one of those had multiple 60 point seasons during their ELCs.

It will depend on how the next 2 seasons play out, but I think you are looking at least $6M for Willie, around $7M for Marner and $8M or $9M for Matthews.