Rumor: Juuse Saros Signs 8 Year / $7.74 AAV Contract

[herzausstein]

Well…not going to lie, thought of this thread immediately as I watched Norris laying down and out on the ice.
My ask has now changed to Lankinen

Feel bad for Norris. Any word on him?

 

[Wondercarrot]

Feel bad for Norris. Any word on him?

No, nothing yet. Yeah really feel for the guy.

 

[herzausstein]

No, nothing yet. Yeah really feel for the guy.

Hope him a speedy recovery. Hopefully just precautionary but hitting the center bar of the goal with what i believe was his previously injured shoulder...
Just not a good situation.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Just because you don't care doesn't mean GM's around the league are all of a sudden go, hey, PS doesn't care about goalie valuation, let's trade for Saros and give NP a load of quality.

Not at all. The simple solution is: don't trade Saros therefore. That's the conclusion both I and Barry Trotz have come to.

I get why BT is asking for the moon and good for him. It gives him wiggle room to negotiate down to a point where he thinks he's getting good value in return.

I would love for us to move Saros and get a top 3 forward, preferably a center. History tells me that's a pipe dream as I don't of any goalie of Saros's level that got moved a player of that ilk.

So where does that leave us, more than likely at what you described, 2nd line depth, hopefully a 1st and possibly another add. Is it what I want, no but is it realistic, I'd say it is.

But again, if that's what's "realistic" then... it's not enough, and we simply don't have to trade Saros.

Adding a quality 2nd liner who can pot 50-60 points is something we desperately need. While we also need a top 3 forward or two, it's not going to happen in any deal for Saros unless some team gets super desperate and I don't see that happening.

I disagree vehemently about the "desperately". We have young players internally who are scoring at similar clips to the Mercers of the world, and who would probably score even more if we gave them a little more opportunity. We have more such prospects developing nicely and on the way. More 2nd line and lower players are very much NOT something we need... AT ALL... let alone "desperately".

I'll leave you with a question, what do you think is fair value for Saros?

Skipping by some of the other red herrings... I want an established All-Star caliber player who is already a legitimate top-liner, or failing that, at least a blue-chip prospect who has a very high probability of becoming such a player. And yes, we are not going to get that. So. We keep Saros. "Fair value" isn't really a term I would use. I don't think there's any objective definition of "fair" in such cases. And on top of that, the value must also be based on possession of all the requisite information that goes into setting it. Which nobody here will ever possess. The key piece of missing information being Saros' intentions re: his next contract. My position on keeping vs. trading him, and therefore the value I set on the necessary return, would be significantly impacted by knowing that information. And we'll never have it. So in that respect, I just make my assumption that Saros is readily retainable on a "sensible" contract of about 6x$7.5M with no NMC. And with that assumption in place, I simply wouldn't trade him.

 

[Scoresberg]

To your knowledge Porter, Mercer IS the guy you move Saros for. A legit top-six center for years to come just entering his prime.

If he’s not enough, I don’t know what to tell you…

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

To your knowledge Porter, Mercer IS the guy you move Saros for. A legit top-six center for years to come just entering his prime.

If he’s not enough, I don’t know what to tell you…

I don't know he's really a true center anymore. 5th on the Devils in faceoffs over the 3 years he's been in the league, and half his total number was in his first year.

 

[Scoresberg]

I don't know he's really a true center anymore. 5th on the Devils in faceoffs over the 3 years he's been in the league, and half his total number was in his first year.

He would be a center in Nashville. In NJ, he has Hishicer and Hughes ahead of him. And Haula as the 3C is a better fit.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

To your knowledge Porter, Mercer IS the guy you move Saros for. A legit top-six center for years to come just entering his prime.

If he’s not enough, I don’t know what to tell you…

I don't see him as being that good. He's another Tomasino/Novak/Evangelista. Somewhat different attributes, but not something we lack or which makes our team better. Which doesn't make him a bad player by any stretch... just not the kind of guy you seem to think he is.

 

[Scoresberg]

I don't see him as being that good. He's another Tomasino/Novak/Evangelista. Somewhat different attributes, but not something we lack or which makes our team better. Which doesn't make him a bad player by any stretch... just not the kind of guy you seem to think he is.

Yeah, cause we have too many players who have scored 42 and 56 points, respectively, in their first two season in the National.

 

[Predsanddead24]

I posted this in the other thread but Trotz pretty clearly stated we aren't moving Saros this deadline so might as well lock this thread until the offseason.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Yeah, cause we have too many players who have scored 42 and 56 points, respectively, in their first two season in the National.

And he'll get about 40 in his 3rd year. And probably something in that 40-60 range for the rest of his prime. Which is nice. So will Novak and Evangelista, and Tomasino probably will if he gets to play somewhere else. These are all ok players. But they aren't special and if you already have a few of them, it makes adding another one even less important. We also have Kemell, Wood, Svechkov, and L'Heureux coming. More of the same if all goes well. It's just not an area that you need to trade one of your best players to address.

 

[Scoresberg]

And he'll get about 40 in his 3rd year. And probably something in that 40-60 range for the rest of his prime. Which is nice. So will Novak and Evangelista, and Tomasino probably will if he gets to play somewhere else. These are all ok players. But they aren't special and if you already have a few of them, it makes adding another one even less important. We also have Kemell, Wood, Svechkov, and L'Heureux coming. More of the same if all goes well. It's just not an area that you need to trade one of your best players to address.

Agree to disagree, can revisit this discussion in a few years.

I think Mercer will be a stud in this league for years to come. Evangelista will be a good one as well. Novak is 26, so who knows. Tommy is in the A.

 

[Armourboy]

I still think Saros gets traded, and if we got a player the level of Mercer people should be pretty happy because I'll be surprised in the end if he gets that. The idea we could get a future elite player back was a nice thought, but was never going to happen.

At the end of the day it simply does not make sense to sign Saros to a 7 or 8 year deal if you think Askarov truly is the future, and no way in heck does Saros take less years than that.

 

[wmupreds]

I still think Saros gets traded, and if we got a player the level of Mercer people should be pretty happy because I'll be surprised in the end if he gets that. The idea we could get a future elite player back was a nice thought, but was never going to happen.

At the end of the day it simply does not make sense to sign Saros to a 7 or 8 year deal if you think Askarov truly is the future, and no way in heck does Saros take less years than that.

I'm starting to really think the same. I have no idea if Trotz will actually do it or not, but I was already half leaning that way before the season and now seeing Askarov progress significantly I don't like the idea of a long term deal for Saros. It just doesn't fit the timeline.

 

[Armourboy]

I'm starting to really think the same. I have no idea if Trotz will actually do it or not, but I was already half leaning that way before the season and now seeing Askarov progress significantly I don't like the idea of a long term deal for Saros. It just doesn't fit the timeline.

I didn't think he would initially but I think after Saros having kind of a meh season, Askarov doing what he needs too, I think it ends up happening because I agree with you, the timeline just doesn't work.

I did think from the start though Trotz would eventually need to make a choice by the end of Saros contract, but really I thought Saros would probably stay because Askarov wouldn't really make it. I was pretty unhappy with that pick that year.

Combine that with Trotz statement about not wanting to hand out any 7-8 year deals anytime soon, wanting guys that wanted to win vs wanting a place to retire and I think the contract just isn't going to come together anyways. My guess is he wants Saros to sign a 4 year deal and that just ain't going to happen.

I think in the end he is moved because a 1st + something is better than nothing at all. It's just the nature of the beast.

 

[Kat Predator]

Any smart GM listens to an offer for ANY player ... then goes from there. That is where we are with Saros. Listening to offers with possible, and costly, counterproposals. The Preds are a year out from a must make decision on Saros. For now we have a proven starter in Saros, capable backup in Lanks, and a promising but not yet proven at the NHL player in Askarov. Let the definitive buyers call with their offers and listen to determine if the offers make sense from our point of view.

They don't even really have to be smart. It's the job.

 

[Top 6 Spaling]

I think in the end he is moved because a 1st + something is better than nothing at all. It's just the nature of the beast.

More and more I'm starting to think we aren't going to find exactly what we want as far as an elite young piece for Saros. Teams that want Saros don't want to trade that kind of piece. I think we are more likely getting multiple other assets that become part of the warchest to go after a really big fish, even if that team doesn't want a goalie.

• EP40 (pipe dream)
• Necas
• Middlestadt
• Tkachuck is unhappy in Ottawa apparently

We have a bunch of "dimes" in our futures we can trade, but no "quarters". Selling Saros off may not get us a quarter, but it might get us enough dimes that we can give the best offer when one is available.

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

Doesn't it really come down to what the true value of an elite goalie is? On a 1-10 Elite scale, I think Saros is an 8.5. Askarov has the potential to be a 9.0+ but we won't know until we play him, and we won't play him enough to know before we have to decide on resigning Saros.

If we knew Arkarov was going to top out at 7.5, would we do the deal for Mercer? Or are we assuming ASkarov is at least an 8.5 or above?

Trotz loves proven vets with character. Saros is both. Askarov has to prove it in the NHL and his character could be questioned by Trotz. Barry has history with charismatic Russians (see #47 in 2012). Does Barry want his #1 goalie bench pressing the goalie net?

This decision will be fascinating.

 

[Scoresberg]

Feels like when all this is over, we end up with a $8.5 mil Saros in net until 2033 who will be just good enough for us to never truly rebuild this team and the loop of getting bounced in the 1st round and drafting 15th will continue.

 

[herzausstein]

Feels like when all this is over, we end up with a $8.5 mil Saros in net until 2033 who will be just good enough for us to never truly rebuild this team and the loop of getting bounced in the 1st round and drafting 15th will continue.

I still think we are waiting for someone to pony up that ridiculous ask Trotz wanted. I think we may trade lankinen and call up askarov for the rest of the season still and trade saros at the draft.

 

[Predsanddead24]

I still think we are waiting for someone to pony up that ridiculous ask Trotz wanted. I think we may trade lankinen and call up askarov for the rest of the season still and trade saros at the draft.

I'd imagine we hold on to Lankinen as an insurance policy for if we move Saros before the draft. If we do move Saros then we re-sign Lankinen and have him as a tandem with Askarov next year. I'd love to see Askarov get another game or two with the Preds this season but I also think there is a lot of benefit in letting him ride out the rest of this season with the Ads.

 

[PredsV82]

We are in a playoff spot. Nobody is going to give us enough for Lankinen to be worth trading him.

Askarov needs to lead the Ads in the Calder playoffs.

What happens to Saros this summer will depend largely on what his demands/expectations are. If he will take 5 years or less(with no NMC) I suspect we sign him. If he insists on 7 years, I suspect he gets traded, hopefully a sign and trade to increase the return

 

[Predsanddead24]

I still think its not even worth getting our hopes up that Saros takes an ultra team friendly deal that is both shorter term and doesn't include a NMC. We might get one or the other but both just seems unlikely. This recent stretch of play also has improved Saros stats a lot which is also going to hurt the idea we can point to a down year as a negotiating tactic. He's not going to be a Vezina finalist again but his numbers have him back in middle of the road starter territory and he's not too far off from being in the top third.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I still think we are waiting for someone to pony up that ridiculous ask Trotz wanted. I think we may trade lankinen and call up askarov for the rest of the season still and trade saros at the draft.

I think the organization is placing a lot of value in what's going on in Milwaukee right now, and they aren't going to jeopardize that by pulling Askarov away from the team. Not unless their hand was forced (by an injury, say).

What would we even get for Lankinen? A 3rd or 4th round pick? We have lots of those. No, the team will keep Lankinen IMO. And keep the Askarov train rollin' in Milwaukee.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I still think its not even worth getting our hopes up that Saros takes an ultra team friendly deal that is both shorter term and doesn't include a NMC. We might get one or the other but both just seems unlikely. This recent stretch of play also has improved Saros stats a lot which is also going to hurt the idea we can point to a down year as a negotiating tactic. He's not going to be a Vezina finalist again but his numbers have him back in middle of the road starter territory and he's not too far off from being in the top third.

You know I am the exact opposite. I think it's not even worth imagining that he WON'T take a team friendly deal! He almost certainly will. He's a big team guy and loves it here. And the market isn't going to offer him anything very attractive in 2025. Taking $45M from us in 2024, even with no NMC or any other bells and whistles, that still makes a ton more sense for him than rolling the dice on a bigger payday in 2025. Teams don't like small goalies. Another "meh" season from him could tank his value dramatically. He'll be highly motivated to lock in with us this summer. Book it.