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Justin Holl

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Stephen said:
I wonder what his upside is? I still feel more comfortable when he's more defensively oriented as opposed to pushing the offense as I said in the OP, but is this as good as it gets or does he follow a Jeff Petry trajectory and start integrating a strong two way game with surprising amounts of offense? Wild to think he's basically a lock to be protected in the expansion draft...
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Tbh his offense has always been there analytically and he was actually only a handful of points off from being a legit quality EV producer in his first full year.
 
zeke said:
Still bugs me that Babcock could have been playing this guy instead of Zaitsev/Polak and decided to not even bother taking a look.

Babcock, man.
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Hey hey now, don’t you realize how much it hurts an ex coach to hear he made a mistake making a kid spend a year of his life in the press box when he should have been playing?
 
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4/5 points are primary assists and all 5 at ev sheesh. We know he likes to jump in and pot a a few as well.

If he plays all 56 in this increased role and it should increase a bit more.
56 games
6 goals
25 assists


He has underrated snarl to his game which is a bonus. He could be our best dman heading into the playoffs honestly. Rielly could be the leading scorer but holl the coveted big all situations rhd, we have sorely needed for hot minute now.
 
zeke said:
Still bugs me that Babcock could have been playing this guy instead of Zaitsev/Polak and decided to not even bother taking a look.

Babcock, man.
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October 31st, 2018
Mike Babcock: “We have to have an internal accountability to make each other do it right every day”

Maybe Mike Babcock should have been held accountable for benching his 1st or 2nd best RHD?
 
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He ended up with 6 primary assists last year in 68 games played at 5v5. Through 8 games this year, he already has 4!

Lets go Holl!

His fancy stats are also better in almost every category (i know its early).
 
Korg said:
He's been getting better with each game, using his size, speed and length to close gaps and keep forwards to the outside, while keeping it simple offensively. Our most improved played this year for sure.
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Keeping it simple offensively is precisely the reason why I think his game has improved tremendously. He was a bit of a black hole in the ozone last year and just messed up puck possession with his bad choices.
He really gets his role priorities.
 
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Leafs at Knight said:
Not sure why some people are so scared to call him a top 4 Dman. Not only was he a top 4 Dman last year, at this point he's a lot closer to a top pairing than a bottom pairing. He got Babcocked' or he would've been a top 4 Dman even sooner.
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I actually didnt think he was good last year
 
IPS said:
October 31st, 2018
Mike Babcock: “We have to have an internal accountability to make each other do it right every day”

Maybe Mike Babcock should have been held accountable for benching his 1st or 2nd best RHD?
Click to expand...

He was. That's why he's an NBC analyst now.
 
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Notsince67 said:
Keeping it simple offensively is precisely the reason why I think his game has improved tremendously. He was a bit of a black hole in the ozone last year and just messed up puck possession with his bad choices.
He really gets his role priorities.
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Agreed, he used to go for a skate and wind up deep in the corner with no idea what to do. This year his participation has been ancillary to the offense. Holding the line, making astute pinches, head-manning the puck etc. He's looked much better ever since he stopped going hero mode everytime he passed the red line with the puck.
 
Korg said:
Agreed, he used to go for a skate and wind up deep in the corner with no idea what to do. This year his participation has been ancillary to the offense. Holding the line, making astute pinches, head-manning the puck etc. He's looked much better ever since he stopped going hero mode everytime he passed the red line with the puck.
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This is precisely what the current stable of stats will never show you.
 
Korg said:
Agreed, he used to go for a skate and wind up deep in the corner with no idea what to do. This year his participation has been ancillary to the offense. Holding the line, making astute pinches, head-manning the puck etc. He's looked much better ever since he stopped going hero mode everytime he passed the red line with the puck.
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For the record, right here you are describing the precise difference between a good #4 dman (last year), and a good top pair dman (this year).
 
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zeke said:
Hanifin is literally the flames' #4 dman, and not a very good one at that.

Crazy how easily dmen on other teams get credit.
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They say they use "analytics criteria" from Natural Stat Trick. Obviously a dubious list but just thought it was encouraging that Holl is being recognized for his good start 1/7th of the way through the season.
 
Marshy said:
They say they use "analytics criteria" from Natural Stat Trick. Obviously a dubious list but just thought it was encouraging that Holl is being recognized for his good start 1/7th of the way through the season.
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ah I wasnn't laughing at Holl being on there tbh. he's been legit great in a bigtime role.

I was laughing at a guy like Hanifin getting included when he's getting 18mpg and has 2pts.
 
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ponder said:
Agreed with liking the current pairings, but Brodie is a very good skater, better than Holl.
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I concur ... but Holl is faster straight line than Brodie ... Brodie better lateral edge balanced skater which matters more for defenders ... but Dermy is far better than both those guys in both straight line speed and edge work so really you have to look at defensive skills too ... and defenders take much longer to develop as we are seeing in front of our eyes with holl ... it is why I worry we will give up on Dermy to early
 
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zeke said:
ah I wasnn't laughing at Holl being on there tbh. he's been legit great in a bigtime role.

I was laughing at a guy like Hanifin getting included when he's getting 18mpg and has 2pts.
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Holl vs. Hanifin this year:

5v5:

Holl
TOI: 135 minutes
Points: 4
CF% 60.00 (+9.98 REL)
xGF% 65.25 (+23.78 REL)


Hanifin
TOI: 87 minutes
Points: 2
CF% 57.25 (+6.36 REL)
xGF% 58.55 (+8.95 REL)


Hanifin has been good this year and all but Holl has been better with harder minutes in a far larger sample size.
 
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Zybalto said:
Holl vs. Hanifin this year:

5v5:

Holl
TOI: 135 minutes
Points: 4
CF% 60.00 (+9.98 REL)
xGF% 65.25 (+23.78 REL)


Hanifin
TOI: 87 minutes
Points: 2
CF% 57.25 (+6.36 REL)
xGF% 58.55 (+8.95 REL)


Hanifin has been good this year and all but Holl has been better with harder minutes in a far larger sample size.
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1 guy is a 97 birth Noah other guy is a 92 birth Justin ... like comparing apples and oranges here ... Holl is in his physical prime now and played 8 years uni and pro hockey ... Noah is like Dermy he is still a baby
 
JT AM da real deal said:
1 guy is a 97 birth Noah other guy is a 92 birth Justin ... like comparing apples and oranges here ... Holl is in his physical prime now and played 8 years uni and pro hockey ... Noah is like Dermy he is still a baby
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Norris trophy doesn't care about age. Trade value is obviously different.
 
zeke said:
ah I wasnn't laughing at Holl being on there tbh. he's been legit great in a bigtime role.

I was laughing at a guy like Hanifin getting included when he's getting 18mpg and has 2pts.
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Agreed, although Holl is actually 4th on the Leafs in TOI/GP too (though basically tied with Brodie and Muzzin for the 2-4 spots, all are between 21:49 and 21:38). While Hanifin is the clear #4 on his own team, and really should not be in any sort of Norris consideration at all.

Hanifin is the most egregious inclusion in this list, but really, to be in contention for best dman in the entire league, your own coach should consider you the best dman on your own team. This isn't the case for any of Holl (Rielly), Theodore (Pietrangelo), Hanifin (Gio) or Faulk (Parayko), based on TOI/GP so far. Even for Risto, McAvoy and Nurse, yes they're the #1 on their team, but only because there's very little competition.

Makar, Weber, Hedman and Josi have legit shots to win the Norris this year. Theodore, Risto, Hanifin, McAvoy, Holl, Faulk and Nurse are all off to good starts, but really don't have any sort of actual chance. It seems these rankings are basically based almost entirely on xGF% and OZS%, which is a massive oversimplification of what it means to be the best dman in the league. Raw xGF% isn't a particularly great stat, it makes no attempt to adjust for quality of teammates or opposition, it's a pretty small improvement on +/-, and nobody would base their Norris list on basically just +/- and OZS%.

The current top 10 dmen in xGF%, with at least 100 mins played, are:
  1. Makar
  2. Dumba
  3. Holl
  4. Jake McCabe
  5. Kulikov
  6. Ethan Bear
  7. Theodore
  8. Alec Martinez
  9. Devon Toews
  10. Chiarot
Not a great list, clearly. Mixing in OZS% doesn't help that much. With a larger sample size, maybe some sort of combo/weighting of xGF%, quality of linemates, quality of competition, OZS%, points and TOI would be OK. But relying on just xGF% and OZS%, especially with tiny sample sizes, makes for a crazy/meaningless list.
 
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