Ranger Wolf
Red Dwarf XI & XII
On ice save percentage is about as useful a statistic as BABIP in baseball. Both are subject to excessive peaks and troughs in small sample sizes, but over a long period of time it will norm towards league average.
Just How Good Are the 2013-14 Rangers?
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Thirty One
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- Dec 28, 2003
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The 2011-12 Kings had a 6.4 shooting percentage before leading the non-Pittsburgh and Philadelphia NHL playoffs in goals per game.
I personally don't think that a team that will have one of two of the top 13 goalscorers in the past 5 seasons for more than half the game will continue to be the peers of Buffalo and Florida in terms of shooting percentage.
Thirty One
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Yes, but in both cases a season isn't a large enough to do away with the randomness. That's the point of them.
Ranger Wolf
Red Dwarf XI & XII
And that was exactly my point. It isn't a useful season statistic since randomness will still be prevalent over a full season.
Thirty One
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Shot quality exists, but I think it's way overrated. Shot quantity always trumps it.
Lundqvist's save percentage might dip a couple of percentage points due to the change from Torts to AV. He's stopped 91.40% of shots this year. In the 4 previous seasons, he's stopped 92.45%. Is that all due to AV? I would doubt it, as a career 91.37% AHL goalie has stopped 93.76% of 480 shots.
Lundqvist's save percentage might dip a couple of percentage points due to the change from Torts to AV. He's stopped 91.40% of shots this year. In the 4 previous seasons, he's stopped 92.45%. Is that all due to AV? I would doubt it, as a career 91.37% AHL goalie has stopped 93.76% of 480 shots.
Thirty One
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Yep, I just wanted to make that clear. I feel some here view 80 games as an infallible sample.
I don't think it's any strange, we made a major adjustment under AV and were severely exposed during the first part of the transition period (we are still transitioning).
Due to that, to a big extent at least, but surely not only, Hank had his first major slump in his career. And he is still in it. He has to work on some stuff, build his game up again, and come back stronger. I don't think he is there yet.
The more up and down the team is, the more time he will need.
Thirty One
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Thirty One
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I think it was Snowblind asking about this yesterday:
Basically, an average goalie at 38 would be 0.005 below his peak age (30) SV%.
http://nhlnumbers.com/2013/1/5/do-nhl-goaltenders-age-in-a-recognizable-pattern#
Basically, an average goalie at 38 would be 0.005 below his peak age (30) SV%.
http://nhlnumbers.com/2013/1/5/do-nhl-goaltenders-age-in-a-recognizable-pattern#
So basically the old adage of "the best defense is a good offense" is true. If a team gets a bunch of offense first players that can't play defense but can hold on to the puck they'll be better than everyone else? I know that's an exaggeration but do you see my point?
Thirty One
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Yes, players that control the puck in the offensive zone won't get scored on.
Thirty One
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Not if you have players that have the puck in the offensive zone 100% of the time.
They tend to top out around 65%, however.
I didn't mean 100% of the time. But basically the idea is to have the puck in the other zone which makes it sound like offense is more important.
Thirty One
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I would call that puck possession, not offense, but yes, I think its importance is way understated.
A 45% possession player is in his zone 18% more than a 55% possession player. That's 18% more opportunities for him or a linemate to make a mistake. 18% more bad bounces. 18% more soft goals from the goalies. Etc. Etc.
Seems like teams got a lot started playing a more puck possession style since the lockout. No?
BlueshirtBlitz
Foolish Samurai
Mr. Three One, i'm curious what you think about adding Paul Stastny to this Rangers team.
Checking out BehindtheNet, it looks like he goes up against really tough competition consistently while also managing a pretty good CorsiREL.
Checking out BehindtheNet, it looks like he goes up against really tough competition consistently while also managing a pretty good CorsiREL.
Blue Blooded
Most people rejected his message
This season yes, but historically he's been pretty meh. He certainly is no Hagelin, Zuccarello, or even Stepan in that regard.
Blue Blooded
Most people rejected his message
Funny story, true story. The Rangers are currently 2nd in the league in 5v5 tied shot differential per minute. They are also 29th in 5v5 tied PDO (dead last in 5v5 tied Sh%).
The Rangers aren't just suffering from bad Sh% and Sv%, they are getting their worst Sh% and Sv% at the worst possible moments in the game. That has to correct itself sooner or later, right?
The Rangers aren't just suffering from bad Sh% and Sv%, they are getting their worst Sh% and Sv% at the worst possible moments in the game. That has to correct itself sooner or later, right?
JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK
Twenty f*ckin years
- Oct 8, 2010
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Idk, maybe we're really just that bad of a team at shooting, collectively. We don't have a de facto finisher, if you think about it. Even Nash is eh, he only has a 12.5% percentage for his career.
I just caught myself thinking. This is one of the most inconsistent teams we've had post lockout, but to some extent I think since the first 10 games they've been the most consistent in their play. Sure some games the D looked horrible, but you seem to know what each game will look like with this team. A lot of zone time, a lot of shots. Usually not much scoring. Even that 11-12 team they'd have one game they'd outshoot the other team by 20, next game they get outshot by 20.
Thirty One
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Yeah, I like him, but I'm not too eager about bidding at the top of the free agent class. No compliance buy-out periods in the near future. I'm not sure the Rangers have the space, anyways, if the cap is indeed ~68M.
Thirty One
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Meh, the 2011-12 Rangers shot 8.4% 5-on-5, compared to 6.3% this season. Did that team have more finishing skill?
If all the Rangers shot at their career shooting percentage, they would have 18 more goals. That would take them from 19th to 8th in GF.
aufheben
#Norris4Fox
All this stuff about great possession, bad puck luck, shot differentials, it's the same stuff Devils' fans were proclaiming all last season.
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