Juraj Slafkovsky - Year Two

[admiralcadillac]

This is an excellent point and makes clear the folly of putting a kid into the NHL right away. It's not just the difference in league quality. He's making close to a million per year, flying charter, staying in nice hotels and driving nice cars. We've given him the prize already and he's anything but a finished product.

It's different making 80 grand riding buses when you're a kid who hasn't ever known any better (sounds pretty good for a 19 year old, doesn't even include the 90 grand signing bonus), vs being sent to ride buses and make 80 grand after you've lived the millionaire lifestyle and think you deserve it.

That’s one way to see it for sure. In my mind it’s just that you aren’t boosting a kid’s confidence by having them sent down. They’re playing in the AHL to get called back up not to boost confidence.

 

[NORiculous]

How many winky faces did I need on my post. Put the knife down sir/mam! lol

Maybe it’s because I am on my phone or something but there was/is no winky face. Only a big blue « ? », so I guess that was the winky face?

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

That’s one way to see it for sure. In my mind it’s just that you aren’t boosting a kid’s confidence by having them sent down. They’re playing in the AHL to get called back up not to boost confidence.

Initially it would take a bit to his confidence. But the likely better production very well could boost his confidence. Seemed to work for Pacioretty if it didn’t work for your friend.

I’m pretty agnostic either way.

Maybe it’s because I am on my phone or something but there was/is no winky face. Only a big blue « ? », so I guess that was the winky face?

Correct!

 

[NotProkofievian]

That’s one way to see it for sure. In my mind it’s just that you aren’t boosting a kid’s confidence by having them sent down. They’re playing in the AHL to get called back up not to boost confidence.

Yeah it's probably gonna be a kick in the pants to get sent down, whereas if we had done it at the start he probably would've just seen it as a challenge. But he seems to have lots of confidence, that's one reason we drafted him. What he doesn't have is a game, IMO.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

His lack of production is a real thing right now, but whether Slaf was the right choice isn't about "Right now".

I've stated my expectations: 10 points by year end. 10 more by season's end. Followed by marked increase next season. He's a 19-year-old who deserves wiggle room and patience, but it doesn't mean he gets a lifetime pass from putting up points.

I disagree with your expectations. If the kid must be in the NHL and is too good for and has nothing to learn in the AHL then he needs to put up more than 20 points. 20 points would be a terrible result, not just not meeting expectations, but terrible.

I mean some are pointing to his lack of production and still claiming we made the right choice jsut because the other result is unknown. Development is unique to professional sports. It happens in all walks of life, you have to learn to crawl before you learn to walk. We are throwing this guy into the deep end when it is clear he is struggling to stay afloat. Maybe Slaf is good enough and it ends up not mattering, but it's hard to argue it's the best approach especially considering the results have been terrible. We can point to these little nuanced improvements all day long, if he was actually improving at a great deal it would inevitably lead to more production or else these improvements are imagined and not real. The lack of results match the eye test imo.

He should be playing 20 minutes a night in a league where he can be the goto guy and develop a knack for scoring consistently.

 

[nhlfan9191]

Is that a reply to my comment though? It was about boosting confidence. No one thinks that way when they get demoted.

He’s a kid. Being sent down is part of the process, especially for teenagers or young 20’s. There should be no sense of entitlement from a 19 year old that hasn’t accomplished anything. It’s not like he’s some seasoned veteran getting demoted later in his career because of bad play where ego could come into play. Even players like Carey Price got demoted at some point.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I like to look at the Poisson distribution to see if a guy is getting lucky or unlucky, like when Danault would score a hattrick or a 4 point game, and immediately afterwards people would say ''he's on pace for 60 points!'' If you estimated his production by the number of 0s he put up via the Poisson formula, though, you'd say he's on pace for like 48.

Slaf is almost exactly what you'd expect by his total. Neither unlucky, nor lucky. He gets on the board about once every 5 games, which is what he's done in the last 5 games. I'm going to guess he gets on the board about once in the next 5 games too.

Again though in year one, he started off not too badly. The team went in the tank and he went with it. At that point if there was any question of sending him down it should’ve been answered. This year they put him with scrubs and he did t do much.

But has been better on those top lines. No he hasn’t been rewarded but part of the reason for that is CC’s terrible slump.

I’m all for sending him down if his play drops. It if he keeps playing like this he’s going to put up points. CC isn’t going to finish the year with 12 goals - at least I hope not

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

You need the right players to develop and we do not have that right now. I hope kent makes some moves with prospects or picks to bring in some young help , we will be spinning our gears with this current lineup it needs some help so badly.

If CC were scoring at a normal rate, Slaf would have some points.

No question in my mind we f***ed up on Slaf’s development so far. But sending him down just as he’s playing better would only compound the problem.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I partly agree.

It's true that he is generating chances but there is something ''mental'' about scoring and finishing. Generating chances is not enough. At some point, it will have to evolve to another level.

It's hard from a skill point of view to be an NHL player with an offensive status. Those are also big shoes to fill from a psychological standpoint.

Being a 1st overall pick is a very big status to hold psychologically too.

There is a big mental skill in being an NHL point producer. Slaf might not be there yet mentally.

Unfortunately he’s tied to a guy in a huge slump. It’s been five games… we owe it to him to give him some time. He and CC are getting chances. Pucks will go in.

 

[Habs]

If CC were scoring at a normal rate, Slaf would have some points.

No question in my mind we f***ed up on Slaf’s development so far. But sending him down just as he’s playing better would only compound the problem.

True enough, one more year of this stagnant play and his confidence is going to be brutal though. I wonder if the team forgot how crucial development was last year, and they figured it out with Roy etc.

 

[xposbrad]

Unfortunately he’s tied to a guy in a huge slump. It’s been five games… we owe it to him to give him some time. He and CC are getting chances. Pucks will go in.

It's not just the scoring that's been bad with Slaf. His skating and defensive work are not at the NHL level. There are some guys who watch him with Habs fan glasses on, it's clearly evident, but I don't even think he's good enough for the 4th line at this point. He needs an AHL stint and we have to accept he may or may not develop into a top pairing forward.

 

[Le Tricolore]

It's not just the scoring that's been bad with Slaf. His skating and defensive work are not at the NHL level. There are some guys who watch him with Habs fan glasses on, it's clearly evident, but I don't even think he's good enough for the 4th line at this point. He needs an AHL stint and we have to accept he may or may not develop into a top pairing forward.

I would have agreed with you for the first part of the season so far, but in the last 5-10 games, I think he's been much better. There's no need to send him down while he's playing well.

 

[admiralcadillac]

He’s a kid. Being sent down is part of the process, especially for teenagers or young 20’s. There should be no sense of entitlement from a 19 year old that hasn’t accomplished anything. It’s not like he’s some seasoned veteran getting demoted later in his career because of bad play where ego could come into play. Even players like Carey Price got demoted at some point.

That makes no sense. The question is about whether a demotion will boost confidence. What you’re describing is what someone who has no stake in the game would view the situation. It’s not about whether it would be better for Slafkovsky.

Initially it would take a bit to his confidence. But the likely better production very well could boost his confidence. Seemed to work for Pacioretty if it didn’t work for your friend.

I’m pretty agnostic either way.



Correct!

I mean it ultimately did work for my cousin’s friend because he’s a captain in the nhl now.

 

[cave troll]

Main culprits for Slaf's Stefanlike numbers are: Newhook and Anderson and now Caufield and Dvorak.
Also, it's their own fault they don't have 10 assist each with Slaf's outstanding 1.4 SOG per game !!!!

 

[BehindTheTimes]

1/5 into the season i think it summarize it pretty well.

I am a bit underwhelmed. On one hand i think he progressed really well but the lack of offensive production is worrying. We will only go so far with IFs.

There is still time to turn things around but ending the season with 20 points would not be encouraging going into his D+3.

Everything is right on track. How can you not see this is the best way to develop him?

That’s one way to see it for sure. In my mind it’s just that you aren’t boosting a kid’s confidence by having them sent down. They’re playing in the AHL to get called back up not to boost confidence.

It's not the act of sending them down that boosts their confidence, it's them putting the puck in the net that does. I didn't think needed to be said?

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Unfortunately he’s tied to a guy in a huge slump. It’s been five games… we owe it to him to give him some time. He and CC are getting chances. Pucks will go in.

It's been 56 games and now were pointing the finger at CC lol. The things ppl will say to cover their disbelief.

 

[admiralcadillac]

Everything is right on track. How can you not see this is the best way to develop him?


It's not the act of sending them down that boosts their confidence, it's them putting the puck in the net that does. I didn't think needed to be said?

It does actually because it’s the whole point of what my cousin said. It can destroy some prospects. Often putting the puck in the net is a factor of easier competition. His point was that it was a topic that people who don’t play at that level say too often because they aren’t seeing the human side of the equation, like chess pieces.

 

[morhilane]

According to Naturalstattricks, at 5v5:
in 148 minutes, Suzuki/Caufield have 4 GF
in 78 minutes, Slaf/Caufield have 3 GF
Slaf/Suzuki/Caufield have 1 GF in 24:88 minutes

 

[nhlfan9191]

That makes no sense. The question is about whether a demotion will boost confidence. What you’re describing is what someone who has no stake in the game would view the situation. It’s not about whether it would be better for Slafkovsky.


I mean it ultimately did work for my cousin’s friend because he’s a captain in the nhl now.

It shouldn’t even be considered a real demotion at this point. He’s in his D-2. He hasn’t belonged at any point he was in the NHL yet either. A “demotion” should just be expected of prospects that age. Of course players would prefer taking a plane to a bus. Who cares. We’re talking about on ice confidence. It should be motivation for him to get better so he’s not riding buses the rest of his career because if he doesn’t get any better, that’s what’s going to happen if keeps playing hockey. Some of the rationalization some of our fans come up with to not send him down funny. You would think he’s getting sent down to the gulag.

 

[Jaynki]

Unfortunately he’s tied to a guy in a huge slump. It’s been five games… we owe it to him to give him some time. He and CC are getting chances. Pucks will go in.

He can turn it on a dime.

But until its done, the trend is established with what we have now.

Everything is right on track. How can you not see this is the best way to develop him?

I don't think playing him in the AHL would change a blip in the grand scheme of things. He will become the player he was meant to be.

If he bust, i would think he is a bad pick. Not that he has been ruined. Both are equally bad.

I am irritated by his lack of production but there is still plenty of time to turn it around.

 

[NORiculous]

If he bust, i would think he is a bad pick. Not that he has been ruined. Both are equally bad.

I agree both are bad. But I disagree that he won’t/can’t be ruined.


Take a 1000 kids in high school and put them in a master lvl class. Tell them individually if he passes the class and gets the master diploma, he get a 1 billion $$.

Some will make it but most will fail.

Now, if you give him the normal courses path and and tell them the same thing. It might be a little longer but the number of people that get it will be substantially bigger.

There is nothing special about that. It’s just normal.

Another example. If you have never surfed. You don’t start on the big maman wave. You will get crushed. You take it step by step.

When you jump too many steps, the failure odds get much bigger. That is just how it is.

I don’t see how you can/will be able to justify him being a bad pick and then look at his development path and say… yeah that’s normal.

 

[Gustave]

Again though in year one, he started off not too badly. The team went in the tank and he went with it. At that point if there was any question of sending him down it should’ve been answered. This year they put him with scrubs and he did t do much.

But has been better on those top lines. No he hasn’t been rewarded but part of the reason for that is CC’s terrible slump.

I’m all for sending him down if his play drops. It if he keeps playing like this he’s going to put up points. CC isn’t going to finish the year with 12 goals - at least I hope not

It’s not necessarily true though, right?

Andy SUCKS big time this season, but other than him? He even gets our best goal scorer right now, Dach for one game, Newhook plenty.

I mean, it’s kinda what we have available no?? Plus the PP time which he gets. I think MSL plays him with players above the scrub status.

 

[Jaynki]

I agree both are bad. But I disagree that he won’t/can’t be ruined.


Take a 1000 kids in high school and put them in a master lvl class. Tell them individually if he passes the class and gets the master diploma, he get a 1 billion $$.

Some will make it but most will fail.

Now, if you give him the normal courses path and and tell them the same thing. It might be a little longer but the number of people that get it will be substantially bigger.

There is nothing special about that. It’s just normal.

Another example. If you have never surfed. You don’t start on the big maman wave. You will get crushed. You take it step by step.

When you jump too many steps, the failure odds get much bigger. That is just how it is.

I agree with your example and i totally see your point. I am just not sure how it applies to hockey. Slafkovsky have had a lot of surfing experience and he might have been ready for the big waves.

I don’t see how you can/will be able to justify him being a bad pick and then look at his development path and say… yeah that’s normal.

Its too early for this and its only something we will be able to assess in due time, and in hindsight. There is also the possibility he grows into his potential and become a cornerstone player for our franchise.

Now, for example, we can argue we mishandled KK and Galchenyuk.

Yet, KK is growing into his potential and Galchenyuk have busted for other obvious reason than being mishandled.

KK was also a f***ing overdraft and bad pick. Way more than a mishandle although he is the epitome of mishandling.

 

[Jaynki]

Another poster that pretends development is just fiction. Development paths and programs matter. You can’t stick a player anywhere and say “oh well, he’ll hit his potential regardless.” One thing Slafkovsky has exposed is the amount of casual fans that haven’t played competitive sports in their life at any level speaking out of their ass and trying to educate others.

You know what is fiction?

The idea that we can have a ultimate impact on a player career.

This guy should have been a star but we ruined him!

Wait, this guy was destined to bust but we made him a stellar player!

Pure utter bullshit and deresponsabilisation of a player who can't cut it.

I am all for having a development department. It has to be optimised. But it is what it is in the end. Optimisation of performance and environment.

It dont have a pronounced effect over a career.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I would have agreed with you for the first part of the season so far, but in the last 5-10 games, I think he's been much better. There's no need to send him down while he's playing well.

Exactly. There’s a big difference since he’s been moved up.