Juraj Slafkovsky - Year Two

[417]

What arbitrary standard you talk about?
I was talking about 1OA picks. There are no arbitrary standards about them. They become franchise players or top NHL players or they are considered busts.
Laferniere was given a 2 years contract after ELC. His own club decided he was worth a 2 years long second chance for 2,325 mil dollars. They don't even seen him as a long term lock but just a guy who was given another chance. A 2 years "do or die" bridge.
If you think he's having some kind of break out, just count the number of his shots. 24. Like Slaf. He converted 30% of them which is unsustainable. It's 3 times bigger than league average.
Things are simple. You draft a high pick and he doesn't deliver in 4,5 years, he becomes relegated to bottom lines or traded away cause there are new prospects ready to take his place.

Hmmm..sure sounds arbitrary.

Is Aaron Ekblad a bust by this measure?

 

[River Meadow]

Stu Cowan: Canadiens hope Shooter Tutor work pays off against Vegas

Practice devoted almost entirely to shooting drills with Juraj Slafkovsky getting help from director of player development Adam Nicholas.

montrealgazette.com

Article talks about MSL's thoughts on his progression and Slaf working with Adam Nicholas.

Okay, Now...

This makes sense on why to keep him in the NHL.

Please Mr. Adam Nicholas, work on your f_________ magic.

 

[Miller Time]

I would consider 15-20 points to be missing the mark, yes. If we asked this question before the season began, 20 points would not be matching anyone’s expectation.

Now we seem afraid to call a spade a spade so that we can stay entrenched in our view point. Before Slaf, it was almost universally accepted here that the NHL is NOT a development league. Now, because we’ve taken this approach many are singing a different tune. Tbh, it’s bizarre. Posters that have always been for the slow and methodical approach are advocating for an 18-19 year old who is a step behind the play to be learning/developing in the toughest league in the world. MSL is some sort of god apparently and all that we thought was true previously is true no more.

Then these posters have the nerve to say “patience” when management hasn’t shown any themselves.

I’ll pass, thanks for the offer!! The nuances, again, I know.

apparently, you don't "know"... as the two bolded comments suggest lol

it's hard to understand, i get it. To je to. Enjoy the complaining! Hopefully, if/when Slaf continues to progress and reaches his pinnacle of NHL impact, you'll be able to enjoy that even more

 

[Jaynki]

What arbitrary standard you talk about?
I was talking about 1OA picks. There are no arbitrary standards about them. They become franchise players or top NHL players or they are considered busts.
Laferniere was given a 2 years contract after ELC. His own club decided he was worth a 2 years long second chance for 2,325 mil dollars. They don't even seen him as a long term lock but just a guy who was given another chance. A 2 years "do or die" bridge.
If you think he's having some kind of break out, just count the number of his shots. 24. Like Slaf. He converted 30% of them which is unsustainable. It's 3 times bigger than league average.
Things are simple. You draft a high pick and he doesn't deliver in 4,5 years, he becomes relegated to bottom lines or traded away cause there are new prospects ready to take his place.

f*** i agree again

 

[Jaynki]

Okay, Now...

This makes sense on why to keep him in the NHL.

Please Mr. Adam Nicholas, work on your f_________ magic.

They could work with him on this in the AHL. Laval is not far for Nicholas. Also, its way easier to apply in the slower AHL. Maybe he is in the NHL for other obvious reason?

 

[cave troll]

Hmmm..sure sounds arbitrary.

Is Aaron Ekblad a bust by this measure?

What about Ekblad? He isn't Florida's franchise D-man who just led the team to SCF?

 

[River Meadow]

They could work with him on this in the AHL. Laval is not far for Nicholas. Also, its way easier to apply in the slower AHL. Maybe he is in the NHL for other obvious reason?

Dang, the send-him-to-AHL crowd finally got to ya, heh?

 

[morhilane]

Stu Cowan: Canadiens hope Shooter Tutor work pays off against Vegas

Practice devoted almost entirely to shooting drills with Juraj Slafkovsky getting help from director of player development Adam Nicholas.

montrealgazette.com

Article talks about MSL's thoughts on his progression and Slaf working with Adam Nicholas.

Going by the end of the this article, someone seems to have caused Slaf to overthink his shooting technic this year (and it wasn't Nicholas).

Also, it's interesting that Slaf discuss with Nicholas after every games.

 

[ReHabs]

This is not so simple and depends on the draft. 2022 was long touted as a draft with not many high end forwards.

No a 50-60 point player is usually not worthy of 1OA pick, but it also depends how good the rest of the players in the draft are.

Look at 2012, the best forwards are Hertl, Forsberg, Teravainen. No single superstar forward in the draft. The best it produced was some quality top 6 guys, lower-tier first line players.

Hertl career avg is just under a 70pt player, career high 84pts in 69gp, 11OA in the 'weak' draft

Forsberg is around 55pts but it's brought down by his earlier seasons, career high 74pts in 77gp, he's closer to a 60pt player, 17th OA in the 'weak' draft

Teravainen is around a 55pts player, career high 76pts in 82gp, 18th OA in the 'weak' draft

All of them have a better PPG and career high than what some of you claim to be acceptable for the friggin 1OA Slafkovsky. It's this mind-numbing lowering of standards that I will call out every time.

I have no doubt the 2022 draft will produce player who get more than 60pts as their career high or career average. If it's not Slafkovsky then Kent Hughes and his foxhole should rightfully get all the blame for it.

What if Slaf ends up as the best forward from that draft class, but only produces 50-60 points a season. Is it a failure? At some point, an organization can't shape the pool of eligible draftees. So, if Slaf ends up as the best forward from the draft, then he was worthy to go 1OA regardless of his point production. And we won't know if this is the case for many years.

We could've drafted one of the two very promising defenders. No excuse for whiffing the 1OA pick and picking a middle6 winger with it.

The issue with a small fraction of posters in this thread is that they want to be right about Slaf and the draft right now after less than 2 full seasons of play. We won't know how things end up for the next couple of years.

Many want to be right about the development strategy. The book is not closed on Slafkovsky.

It's only a blown opportunity if the forwards drafted in a similar range end up as better offensively players. If the best the 2022 draft produces is a top 6 forward, then there really isn't much an organization can do.

See above, it didn't need to be a F and that's a false condition to place on the team. The Habs needed a C, a W, a D, and a G.

 

[417]

What about Ekblad? He isn't Florida's franchise D-man who just led the team to SCF?

I mean, cool they went to a SCF one year, he's a very good Dman…

Would you pick him 1OA in a Re-draft? Which mind you, doesn't take away his value as a player, again I think he's very good (maybe not as good as you think). But there's at least 3 players I'd take before him and after that I could still go either way with a couple of players.

So really the point it's probably a bit more nuance than how you wrote it.

 

[ReHabs]

Its actually the polar opposite with 19 years old.

They are in their window of maximum growth.

I'm referring to the D+4 year! IF he's only at 50ish points in his D+4, it's bad. I know you agree.

 

[Jaynki]

I'm referring to the D+4 year! IF he's only at 5ish points in his D+4, it's bad. I know you agree.

Oh well, i absolutely agree then.

In reference to post comparing hertl, forsberg and teravainen...

I accept Slaf is potentially not a franchise player a la McDavid/Matthews/Hughes.

But, between this and a 50 points middle sixer, there is a big margin.

I anticipate him to be on the upper end of this margin. At best, i think he has the potential to have a similar impact to someone like Marian Hossa. (Two way, playdriving strong forward)

 

[ReHabs]

Oh well, i absolutely agree then.

5ish would be hilarious. I meant 50ish. I think we're on the same page all the same.

I really think he is capable of a lot more than 30pts next season. Earlier this summer I said 35 is the threshold for this current season, if he gets above that it would be an objectively good season for the not-quite-1OA. It's not impossible. He's a big easy skater. Who knows, maybe it'll happen.

 

[cave troll]

I mean, cool they went to a SCF one year, he's a very good Dman…

Would you pick him 1OA in a Re-draft? Which mind you, doesn't take away his value as a player, again I think he's very good (maybe not as good as you think). But there's at least 3 players I'd take before him and after that I could still go either way with a couple of players.

So really the point it's probably a bit more nuance than how you wrote it.

I'd pick only Drai ahead of him in 2014.
Ekblad played with a broken foot and a broken shoulder last season's rnd. The moment the season ended he went to the surgery table. So give some credit to the guy.
What do you think Ekblad would be in Habs? Franchise D-man til the end of his career.

 

[Jaynki]

5ish would be hilarious. I meant 50ish. I think we're on the same page all the same.

I really think he is capable of a lot more than 30pts next season. Earlier this summer I said 35 is the threshold for this current season, if he gets above that it would be an objectively good season for the not-quite-1OA. It's not impossible. He's a big easy skater. Who knows, maybe it'll happen.

I think it could happen this season. It would be roughly 0.5ppg from now on.

Dont think it is too far fetched. For reference, Dubois started his D+2 with 5 points in 25 games and ended it with 43 points in 58 games and never looked back.

Slaf has also played better than his offensive production suggest. It will have to follow tho.

 

[cave troll]

5ish would be hilarious. I meant 50ish. I think we're on the same page all the same.

I really think he is capable of a lot more than 30pts next season. Earlier this summer I said 35 is the threshold for this current season, if he gets above that it would be an objectively good season for the not-quite-1OA. It's not impossible. He's a big easy skater. Who knows, maybe it'll happen.

I only hope Nicholas has the backup of his muscle memory and is reverting him to the state before they started to erase it. so the kid can finally play like he is supposed to do. Free of the fear of failure and free of thinking twice before making any kind of move.

 

[Heffyhoof]

What arbitrary standard you talk about?
I was talking about 1OA picks. There are no arbitrary standards about them. They become franchise players or top NHL players or they are considered busts.
Laferniere was given a 2 years contract after ELC. His own club decided he was worth a 2 years long second chance for 2,325 mil dollars. They don't even seen him as a long term lock but just a guy who was given another chance. A 2 years "do or die" bridge.
If you think he's having some kind of break out, just count the number of his shots. 24. Like Slaf. He converted 30% of them which is unsustainable. It's 3 times bigger than league average.
Things are simple. You draft a high pick and he doesn't deliver in 4,5 years, he becomes relegated to bottom lines or traded away cause there are new prospects ready to take his place.

I'm talking about your arbitrary standards in regards to when a 1OA needs to be a finished or close to product. You pretend it's all linear, that each player must be at a certain level at a certain time, early on mind you, or it's not proper. Instead of addressing that idea, you went and found another avenue to complain about, neat.

 

[cave troll]

I'm talking about your arbitrary standards in regards to when a 1OA needs to be a finished or close to product. You pretend it's all linear, that each player must be at a certain level at a certain time, early on mind you, or it's not proper. Instead of addressing that idea, you went and found another avenue to complain about, neat.

It's not all liner. Sometimes it's a flat line low bar like Stefan, or a sloping down curve like Yakupov.
In 90% of cases 1OA are established as top quality players after their ELC and make an impact the moment they start to play in NHL.
On the other hand, you talked about 4-6 years of development.
Thing is, if Slaf doesn't reach 50 next season, he'll be offered Laf's type of a bridge and probably for lesser money.
We'll have other prospects to jump in the roster in next years (and I hope some quality UFA-s and good players through trades) and nobody will wait 5-6 years for a player to get a hold of his game.

 

[417]

I'd pick only Drai ahead of him in 2014.
Ekblad played with a broken foot and a broken shoulder last season's rnd. The moment the season ended he went to the surgery table. So give some credit to the guy.
What do you think Ekblad would be in Habs? Franchise D-man til the end of his career.

I just did lol…that being said I would take Draisaitl, Pastrnak or Point over him in a Re-draft.

I don't know if i’d call him a franchise Dman but that's maybe just semantics at this point.

The main point I was making was in response to you saying a 1stOA is either a franchise player or a bust, clearly as we’re discussing Ekblad as an example, the question/answer, is a bit more nuanced than that.

 

[NORiculous]

You can’t be a tankophile and also state you’d be happy with a 50pt winger in his prime with the 1OA pick. No, that doesn’t jive. That’s incoherent.

At some point you try to salvage what you have. So when the pick was done, 50 pts peak year is totally disappointing. Right now with only the NHL, 50 pts is starting to look good.

 

[NORiculous]

True that Laf and Byfield are good examples of high picks taking a few years before getting going this year. Not every top pick comes in guns ablazing. Byfield is more of a good example for me because he's also a player who already had a big frame when he was drafted. And it takes a little longer for 17-to-19 year olds to grow into those big bodies.

Byfield did play AHL games in his first 3 seasons. The last two years, he played more NHL games than he did AHL games, so most of his development has been at the NHL level.

Slafkovsky doesn’t need to spend his life in the AHL either and let’s not forget that the timing when Byfield was sent down wasn’t randomly chosen…

 

[Kennerback]

Another guy that hasn’t exactly come out guns ablazing is Kaapo Kakko, 2OA in 2019. Slafkovsky is actually outpointing him this season.

 

[cave troll]

I just did lol…that being said I would take Draisaitl, Pastrnak or Point over him in a Re-draft.

I don't know if i’d call him a franchise Dman but that's maybe just semantics at this point.

The main point I was making was in response to you saying a 1stOA is either a franchise player or a bust, clearly as we’re discussing Ekblad as an example, the question/answer, is a bit more nuanced than that.

I wrote franchise or a top player and you omitted the latter.
Hall and Nuge are certainly not franchise players. But one won Hart before injuries started to f*** him up and other is a career 0.8 PPG player.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

This is not so simple and depends on the draft. 2022 was long touted as a draft with not many high end forwards.

No a 50-60 point player is usually not worthy of 1OA pick, but it also depends how good the rest of the players in the draft are.

Look at 2012, the best forwards are Hertl, Forsberg, Teravainen. No single superstar forward in the draft. The best it produced was some quality top 6 guys, lower-tier first line players.

What if Slaf ends up as the best forward from that draft class, but only produces 50-60 points a season. Is it a failure? At some point, an organization can't shape the pool of eligible draftees. So, if Slaf ends up as the best forward from the draft, then he was worthy to go 1OA regardless of his point production. And we won't know if this is the case for many years.

The issue with a small fraction of posters in this thread is that they want to be right about Slaf and the draft right now after less than 2 full seasons of play. We won't know how things end up for the next couple of years.

People will say it's a cope out, but it's just a simple fact: it's too early to tell. Way too early to tell what's going on.


It's only a blown opportunity if the forwards drafted in a similar range end up as better offensively players. If the best the 2022 draft produces is a top 6 forward, then there really isn't much an organization can do.

I want to agree with all of this but it's to when Logan Cooley already looks special and 10x the player Slafkovsky is.

Slafkovsky might turn out to be a good player in a couple of years but it already looks like we missed out on a player who's a really productive center right out of the gate.

At some point, our scouts have to stop not getting the most value out of our high picks. It's deflating and keeps us bad.

 

[GlassesJacketShirt]

Another guy that hasn’t exactly come out guns ablazing is Kaapo Kakko, 2OA in 2019. Slafkovsky is actually outpointing him this season.

Kakko is a great example of a player who does a lot of things right but never really ended up producing. He got a lot of minutes on the top line last season in NY and even in good games, it never seemed to convert to impressive offensive production.