Player Discussion Juraj Slafkovsky, the high offensive potential edition.

[CristianoRonaldo]

And that wouldn't be wise, just like the Dallas' and St Louis'.

What if he's the next Armia, Puljujarvi(he's still young what if ?), Gurianov... ? It's easy to say they made a mistake, in hindsight, but in Nichushkin's case they tried everything with him, maybe it's the change of team that made what he is today... Teams rarely keep their bust 7 years and more, GM are pragmatic and they want to get something in return, before it's too late.

 

[Jaynki]

I don’t think it’s that difficult.

How about this:
You bring him in the office, you say that there is one (or a couple) thing you want him to work on and say you think it’s best to work on it and try it out at the AHL level. That he will get recalled in a couple of weeks, etc.

They say Slafkovsky has good character, If true then I’d guess he would have cooperated without any problem.

What do you think?

Ok so Lafreniere would be the same player he is today in his third year, that he would be if he played one more year in the Q or in the AHL. I agree.

But why would Slafkovsky be a better player in three years, if he would have played this year in the AHL? What he would have learned there that would have a so great impact on his development?

You see, we can all agree that Slafkovsky was not ready for top line duty and that he was, at best, an adequate 4th liner. We can all agree he could have offered better offensive performance in the AHL.

The point i am trying to make is that it is irrelevant in the outcome of his career. He will be the player he has to be in 4 years, wherever he played this season. Its a f***ing myth that playing him in the AHL this season will make him better in the long term or playing him in the NHL this season will ruin him. It is truly a nothing burger.

It is all about how he will develop and train and learn how to use his tools. Management thought that the best way for him to learn the speed and processing of the game and the transition of his game to the NA style and ice size rink was to give him easy, stress-free minutes in the NHL. It is a defendable position.

All folks whose are saying, he was not ready, go to ahl, its a very simplistic way to look at the thing. There is major benefit to play and learn in the NHL, which is why Wright stayed with Seattle for four months despite playing 1 games out of 3.

All folks who wants to label his career already are also missing the boat big time. Was he disappoingting for a 1st overall, relative to past comparatives? Yes. But thats it. Now the jury is out and there are so many example of young player totally exploding just as there is many examples of young players stagnating or disappointing, even if we keep the sample size for top 5 picks. The jury is still out and its a shot in the dark right now.

And if he bust or totally explode, where he played at 18 years old will probably be one of the meaningless factor in the outcome of his career.

 

[junyab]

What if he's the next Armia, Puljujarvi(he's still young what if ?), Gurianov... ? It's easy to say they made a mistake, in hindsight, but in Nichushkin's case they tried everything with him, maybe it's the change of team that made what he is today... Teams rarely keep their bust 7 years and more, GM are pragmatic and they want to get something in return, before it's too late.

I think the difference here is the Habs knew he was a gamble with a high ceiling.

 

[Jaynki]

I think the difference here is the Habs knew he was a gamble with a high ceiling.

What do you mean by gamble ?

 

[salbutera]

There is a lot of exemples of young players with good seize that struggle at the start , but showed great potential after adjusting.

Mackinnon, Pacioretty, Dach , tage thompson, Fiala , Draisatl. The list goes on.

There’s still hope for slaf

2003 draft will always be Exhibit A:

- it went from Erik Staal being the best player of the draft, to Carter / Richards, to Getzlaf / Perry / Weber, to Brett Burns to now Bergeron / Pavelski 20-years removed

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

True but the multiple head down hits show he's wasn't ready. Most important thing is player safety and Slaf couldn't process the game well enough to avoid that problem. Can you remember any big prospect who was decked that badly in his rookie season? This is concerning for sure... If he can't learn to protect himself at this level, it means he's not ready for it imo. What's the downside of sending him to Laval?

He needs to get used to NA rink size and game. He’s not less likely to decked in the AHL, in fact he might be more likely as there are plugs who would consider taking out a 1st overall pick to be the highlight of their hockey careers.

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

I think if you do it early enough it should be that simple, but after 30 games I feel like it gets a bit complicated. I mean if you plan on giving a short trial to see what you have with the understanding that you might send him down, that is one thing.

Slaf made the team without showing anything in camp without showing he deserved it. The plan was to keep him up all along.


It's definitely up for debate. Just because he;s big doesn't mean he's too good for junior. That's how we got into this mess.

The thing is he’s not big. He’s massive. And he moves VERY well for his size. Who would stop a guy at 6’4 and 237?

And it’s not like he doesn’t have hands and a pretty great shot. Plus he plays with plenty of jam.

I didn’t realize so many people doubt his upside. I think he’s really really raw but the tools are there.

I’m fine with toolbox questions and whether he can put it all together. I think that’s all valid. But to not think that the tools are pretty crazy must be pretty disheartening for some.

 

[1909]

Let the kid learn ! We will see in 3-4 years from now what is his real value. KK is turning the corner now in Carolina at 21.

Personnally, I would like to see NO players under 20 at NHL level unless they are exceptionals, like the Crosbys and McDavids.

 

[NORiculous]

Ok so Lafreniere would be the same player he is today in his third year, that he would be if he played one more year in the Q or in the AHL. I agree.

But why would Slafkovsky be a better player in three years, if he would have played this year in the AHL? What he would have learned there that would have a so great impact on his development?

Because Lafrenière was holding his own and showing progress. Slafkovsky wasn’t holding his own and wasn’t showing progress.

The idea is to have progress and at good speed, it doesn’t matter where. The « where » comes after you see if the progress is there or not, and if the learning speed is good or not.

That is not just hockey, that how life works.

Put a 14 year old kid in university and he will get smached (overwhelmed). Most of them kids will but maybe 1 or 2 out of 1000 will be fine. I don’t know the real number but it doesn’t matter, it’s the concept that counts. By the time the 14 year old figured it out, people that have followed the normal school path will be ahead of him. Because they will have taken the steps necessary before, have done it with decent speed. One inch at a time.

All folks whose are saying, he was not ready, go to ahl, its a very simplistic way to look at the thing. There is major benefit to play and learn in the NHL, which is why Wright stayed with Seattle for four months despite playing 1 games out of 3.

Wright was in a particular position. His GM was saying something and his coach was saying the opposite… So it’s the conflict between GM and coach which made Wright stay in the NHL that long.

Total guess here but I would guess that Slafkovsky had a similar situation where MSL wanted to keep him a bit longer and Hughes didn’t fit his coach.

That would be the reversed situation of Wright. Like I said, total guess but it would play into MSL inexperience and his tendency to do things his way, no matter what the normal path is. That approach has some good and some bad. But this is pure speculation on my part and it doesn’t really matter why it happened because the conclusion is the same.

 

[Jaynki]

Because Lafrenière was holding his own and showing progress. Slafkovsky wasn’t holding his own and wasn’t showing progress.

The idea is to have progress and at good speed, it doesn’t matter where. The « where » comes after you see if the progress is there or not, and if the learning speed is good or not.

That is not just hockey, that how life works.

Put a 14 year old kid in university and he will get smached (overwhelmed). Most of them kids will but maybe 1 or 2 out of 1000 will be fine. I don’t know the real number but it doesn’t matter, it’s the concept that counts. By the time the 14 year old figured it out, people that have followed the normal school path will be ahead of him. Because they will have taken the steps necessary before, have done it with decent speed. One inch at a time.

Well we don't have really have the data nor the sample size necessary to affirm that Slafkovsky was not progressing. In the stage of his development, progression is not about killing the opposition and racking up the points. It might simply be about reacting better with the pucks or being better positioned on the ice in all three zone, applying forecheck a different ways. Things that are not obvious to us fans. I believe the coaches saw progression in games but its possible that the progression has also been apparent in the gym and in practices, in the way he behaves (like a professional), etc. Again things that are not available to us.

I understand your point and analogy with the university. I don't totally disagree but i believe Slaf might be part of the 1-2 dude out of the bunch, and pretty much every top 3 picks, they are the 1-2 students out of the thousand bunch. To have this status, you have obliterated older players than you in minor hockey all of your freaking f***ing life.

Finally, what would have Slaf concretely learned in the AHL? I can tell you a plethora of things he might have learned in the NHL. And i don't think its things he could have learned in any other leagues.

 

[Guy Larose]

wait... you're still blind to JKO's steady progression? or to the reality that Laf (who is 4th, currently, in his draft year as far as NHL production) has also shown strong signs of improvement and that his current production is limited, rather than enhanced, by the quality of team he plays for???

for context... of the 2020 draft class, Laf was 15th in PP ice time and 11th on toi... yet he was T-4th in offensive production and only 3 of the forwards ahead of him were on playoff teams.

Context matters


and you clearly missed the point. your take is that Slaf's "tools aren't that great". I simply offered you an abundance of other perspectives that suggest he has some significant tools to work with.

Whether he puts them all together or not is a completely different question. There are ample athletes with great tools who don't translate them to professional success.... but that doesn't negate or erase the existence of those tools.

Your "reality" is simply wrong. The athlete CLEARLY has a ton of excellent tools at his disposal... it was bad take. it's ok to have had a bad take and update it once ample evidence suggests that the "reality" you were operating from was just... wrong.

Don't mind him, he's the king of bad takes. He didn't like the Dach trade, bags on MSL, Slaf, and I could go on. Never heard him say one good thing on the Habs for that matter.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

The thing is he’s not big. He’s massive. And he moves VERY well for his size. Who would stop a guy at 6’4 and 237?

And it’s not like he doesn’t have hands and a pretty great shot. Plus he plays with plenty of jam.

I didn’t realize so many people doubt his upside. I think he’s really really raw but the tools are there.

I’m fine with toolbox questions and whether he can put it all together. I think that’s all valid. But to not think that the tools are pretty crazy must be pretty disheartening for some.

My point is, I think the chances he runs away and destroys junior competition is almost zero. He would be fine, but he wouldn't be lapping the field. Not even close.

 

[NORiculous]

Well we don't have really have the data nor the sample size necessary to affirm that Slafkovsky was not progressing. In the stage of his development, progression is not about killing the opposition and racking up the points. It might simply be about reacting better with the pucks or being better positioned on the ice in all three zone, applying forecheck a different ways. Things that are not obvious to us fans. I believe the coaches saw progression in games but its possible that the progression has also been apparent in the gym and in practices, in the way he behaves (like a professional), etc. Again things that are not available to us.

I understand your point and analogy with the university. I don't totally disagree but i believe Slaf might be part of the 1-2 dude out of the bunch, and pretty much every top 3 picks, they are the 1-2 students out of the thousand bunch. To have this status, you have obliterated older players than you in minor hockey all of your freaking f***ing life.

Finally, what would have Slaf concretely learned in the AHL? I can tell you a plethora of things he might have learned in the NHL. And i don't think its things he could have learned in any other leagues.

The data we have is pretty complete, though.

He faced very easy toughness of opposition To me that is a key information.

Add to that that he wasn’t able to drive possession, quite the contrary, against this easy toughness of opposition.

That is a concern. Can’t hold his own against the easy guys to play against.

His Corsi sucked. Some will argue that all the Habs sucked in Corsi this year and while true, Slafkovsky numbers are in the bottom.

His GA/ 60 vs GF/60 sucked. But we already know he didn’t produce.

So the complete picture when adding all the stats up is he had the worse advanced stats of the team.

I just think Habs made a mistake and that the injury ( which a lot of fans had been warning would come) prevented them to fix it. The result is a year with almost no progress on the ice. Like I said earlier, if he trains like mad this summer, it will compensate.

That said… I’ve never said he is done. I just feel concerned that the decisions for him weren’t optimal and that he, as a pick, wasn’t optimal either. Most of this is not his fault: weak draft, team decisions, etc. Combine both, you get concern.


It’s not like the Habs will get many #1 picks in the near future and we have seen plenty of top pick fail with the Habs KK, Galchenyuk, Drouin, etc.

I get its not the same management but they are also human and can make mistakes.

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

My point is, I think the chances he runs away and destroys junior competition is almost zero. He would be fine, but he wouldn't be lapping the field. Not even close.

Well it all depends on what you mean by lapping the field and 'dominating'. We might have different ideas of what all that means. And I don't necessarily need to hash that out here. Not being a dick at all but we can keep debating details and I'm not particularly interested.

I just think that big fast skill guys are EXACTLY the guys who dominate junior. Low IQ or not. And after that it's all about whether that can translate or whether the guy has minus hockey iq or not.

Maybe some of it's lost in translation but it seems like you and some others just don't think this guy even has the tools. Especially if you're going to make a point of you thinking he wouldn't dominate junior in a D+1 year. It just sounds like you're pretty low on his upside to me. Which is obviously not a crime but I just don't think is a valid assessment.

Hockey IQ concerns make sense to me. Development track worries make sense to me. Him being raw and having a pretty big uphill battle to put it together makes sense to me. Him not having drool worthy tools doesn't make sense to me. Again, which is totally fine. Don 't want a mud sling over it. I just don't see that at all.

I like the gamble because if he hits he could be an absolute force. I think there is a lot of work to be done to get there but I don't think it's impossible or even that improbable. But I guess that's the crux of the argument there. It would suck if he became a 25/25 guy on the 2nd line and seeing guys like Cooley, Jiricek et al. go on to be great players. But even then I still think Slaf is a guy we'll love in the playoffs when he fills out. That might be cold comfort for some regarding a no.1 pick but I still think his floor will still be a plus to this roster.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Slafkovsky is 19 years old now so he's old and a bust can't believe he's not ppg in the N so embarassing

 

[Jack Spider]

From some clips I saw, he looks a tier above everyone else during practice. That's encouraging. But the regular season games I'll agree that it's disappointing for a 1st overall.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

30 games in the NHL has a 18 year old kid = bust

 

[SOLR]

Let the kid learn ! We will see in 3-4 years from now what is his real value. KK is turning the corner now in Carolina at 21.

Personnally, I would like to see NO players under 20 at NHL level unless they are exceptionals, like the Crosbys and McDavids.

under 21 even, so that the AHL is more filled with actual talent (maybe a new window from the CHL at 19)

 

[junyab]

What do you mean by gamble ?

He had the highest ceiling but a lower probability of success than the other top 5 picks.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

In his case I'd go by NHL games, not years as hes battled with injuries and played in the KHL. The average wait time for forwards over 6'4" to have a breakout season is 400 games. Im giving Slaf that long.

And that wouldn't be wise, just like the Dallas' and St Louis'.


Oh boy. Worst post of the week so far.

Yeah people are so down on him but it's literally what is to be expected. There are countless examples of big guys who took their time from Vinny and Joe to Wheeler, Thompson etc, some people made up their minds keeping him in the NHL was a career death long ago and will die on that hill - they act like players can't improve once they make the NHL and development is suddenly over once they're in the NHL. Yup that's it, no more developing skills at all you're a finished product who now is incapable of getting better offensively because you didn't get to dominate the minors.

I'm not saying it was a good idea, but I think the whole concept that a player can't develop their offensive skills in the NHL is wrong, we've seen it from tons of players long after they are NHL players. Does anyone else remember being 18? Physically I expect him to get a lot stronger and more coordinated , it comes with time especially for bigger players a lot of the time , with Slaf it's not different. I tend to try to throw out the #1 label in my head and think of him like I would a top 5 pick where the expectations are often to get a top line player or at least a very good one who can help you win, which I still believe he can be

 

[NotProkofievian]

30 games in the NHL has a 18 year old kid = bust

That's completely untrue and an unfair criticism, and I absolutely will not stand for it.

....he was already a bust by game 15.

 

[Jaynki]

He had the highest ceiling but a lower probability of success than the other top 5 picks.

How do we calculate that? How do you arrive at this conclusion?

I fail to see or understand how he has lowest probability of success than Wright or Cooley.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

under 21 even, so that the AHL is more filled with actual talent (maybe a new window from the CHL at 19)

That's stupid though, if guys are good enough let them play, they're adults and they deserve to make the NHL and be paid as such if they can do it. You don't have to be a Crosby or McDavid, stamkos won a rocket at 19 , Matthews had 40+ goals, MacKinnon was a 60+ pt guy who was the best player in a playoff series for his team at 18 etc. Guys like O'Reilly and bergeron clawed their way to the NHL at 18 and never looked back, Seguin came up big for his team on a cup run in a close ECf - there are dozens of guys under 21 who are already starts or very good NHL players, why on earth would you want to water down the league and prevent them from playing in the NHL ?

 

[Jaynki]

The data we have is pretty complete, though.

He faced very easy toughness of opposition To me that is a key information.

Add to that that he wasn’t able to drive possession, quite the contrary, against this easy toughness of opposition.

That is a concern. Can’t hold his own against the easy guys to play against.

His Corsi sucked. Some will argue that all the Habs sucked in Corsi this year and while true, Slafkovsky numbers are in the bottom.

His GA/ 60 vs GF/60 sucked. But we already know he didn’t produce.

So the complete picture when adding all the stats up is he had the worse advanced stats of the team.

I just think Habs made a mistake and that the injury ( which a lot of fans had been warning would come) prevented them to fix it. The result is a year with almost no progress on the ice. Like I said earlier, if he trains like mad this summer, it will compensate.

That said… I’ve never said he is done. I just feel concerned that the decisions for him weren’t optimal and that he, as a pick, wasn’t optimal either. Most of this is not his fault: weak draft, team decisions, etc. Combine both, you get concern.


It’s not like the Habs will get many #1 picks in the near future and we have seen plenty of top pick fail with the Habs KK, Galchenyuk, Drouin, etc.

I get its not the same management but they are also human and can make mistakes.

You paint a very negative pictures of him. He had easiest opposition that is true.

But he mainly played with Evans and Hoffman then Evans and Pezzetta. He still had 48.9% corsi, not good but it aint incredibly bad either.

Honestly, its adequate for an 18 years old in his role. Again, i understand its a disappointment for a 1st overall, but still, its an average 4th liner performance with his production. Its not a player that was not able to handle the NHL.

Also, when im talking about a small sample size of data, we as fans don't know how he evolved in practices, we don't know what was asked of him and how he answered.

I still fail to see how the AHL would have been a better place for him to learn. If anything, i just think it would comfort us fans seeing him produce but thats it. The NHL was the best place, in my opinion, for him to learn the processing of the game, the toughness of defenseman, etc. He would have learned nothing about the NHL down there.

 

[SOLR]

That's stupid though, if guys are good enough let them play, they're adults and they deserve to make the NHL and be paid as such if they can do it. You don't have to be a Crosby or McDavid, stamkos won a rocket at 19 , Matthews had 40+ goals, MacKinnon was a 60+ pt guy who was the best player in a playoff series for his team at 18 etc. Guys like O'Reilly and bergeron clawed their way to the NHL at 18 and never looked back, Seguin came up big for his team on a cup run in a close ECf - there are dozens of guys under 21 who are already starts or very good NHL players, why on earth would you want to water down the league and prevent them from playing in the NHL ?

Playing 2 more years of juniors for any of the players you named would have ruined their career? Nope. Waterdown the league? what the hell are you talking about, the league would be stronger because there would be less "bust by premature confidence destruction" and more development at each level as they would be also more talented.