Player Discussion Kaiden Guhle

[Habs Halifax]

Not always. It depends on thed player's ceiling and the likelihood of achieving it.

Subban was a much better offensive player than Guhle. Offense gets bigger bucks.

Need to have better context than this. At what age and at what salary cap? Guhle won't get $9M on his next deal. We agree there. But you are talking about Subban at $9M from 2014 bud. Salary cap was $69M. 9/69 = 0.13% of the cap. That would be $12M with a $92M cap. Guhle at age 29 could get $9M if he remains a strong top 4D. By the time he is age 29, cap will be close to $100M.

 

[salbutera]

Guhle will become a terrific top pairing Dman but his monetary value may not be as high as many think. He should take Slavin type of money and run. He is also somewhat injury prone which he needs to consider.

Which is precisely why I think he takes the not so conservative approach and bets on himself to hit the jackpot in 5-6 years

 

[Habs Halifax]

Guhle will become a terrific top pairing Dman but his monetary value may not be as high as many think. He should take Slavin type of money and run. He is also somewhat injury prone which he needs to consider.

7x $5.3M for Slavin was signed in 2017. Cap for 17/18 was $75M. That's 0.07% of the cap.

Guhle has one ELC contract left ($88M cap this season). Projections for 25/26 are $92M and most think that is the low number. Lets say it's true... 7% of a $92M cap = $6.5M.

I stand firm, A 7 year deal with inflation adjustment means Guhle is getting north of $6M. My range for a 8 year term is $6M - $7.25M . 8x $7M might be the sweet spot for both sides.

We should also probably move this to the Guhle thread.

 

[Tyson]

7x $5.3M for Slavin was signed in 2017. Cap for 17/18 was $75M. That's 0.07% of the cap.

Guhle has one ELC contract left ($88M cap this season). Projections for 25/26 are $92M and most think that is the low number. Lets say it's true... 7% of a $92M cap = $6.5M.

I stand firm, A 7 year deal with inflation adjustment means Guhle is getting north of $6M. My range for a 8 year term is $6M - $7.25M . 8x $7M might be the sweet spot for both sides.

We should also probably move this to the Guhle thread.

Slavin signed a 8 year 51 mil contract yesterday. Guhle might earn a bit more.

 

[BLNY]

I prefer 8 years because that takes Guhle to age 31 vs 29. We might not have the cap space to extend at that stage and it's one of those 30+ contracts. A bit premature to talk about that kind of stuff but it's a real salary cap challenge. I have 3 more years of transition and then 5+ of contention. Get Guhle locked up for 8 and then you have him for those 5 years of contention (vs 3).

8x $6M-$7.25M range. That's where my mind is at. Hopefully closer to $6M but I bet you Guhle and his agent will push bridge if we are trying to lower the 8 year term to $6M.

The thing that has changed is also the cap and growth to come. We are over the covid flat cap years and revenue will grow. In 2017+, the growth was not projected to grow like it will from today+. Agents will be all over this growing cap IMO.

8 years ideally. Merely sourcing Slavin's deal.

Cap went up $8.5 million over the 7 years of Slavin's deal (this year coming being last). It's gone up $13 million since signing. I know league is tentatively projecting another $4 million increase for 25-26, but I'm not as optimistic. Depending on how the US election goes, there could be significant impacts on US economy. I think an offer of $6.25 million over 8 would be strong and effectively account for increase in cap.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Slavin signed a 8 year 51 mil contract yesterday. Guhle might earn a bit more.

I was talking about Slavin last deal which is a better comparison to Guhle today. Can't compare to Slavin's contract yesterday because it's all UFA years.

Fans who think Guhle is signing 7 or 8 years at under $6M are crazy. Heck, a 2 year bridge will cost you close to $5M.

8x $7M. Get er done Guhle/Agent/Hughes. I'm sure they will.

 

[Habs Halifax]

8 years ideally. Merely sourcing Slavin's deal.

Cap went up $8.5 million over the 7 years of Slavin's deal (this year coming being last). It's gone up $13 million since signing. I know league is tentatively projecting another $4 million increase for 25-26, but I'm not as optimistic. Depending on how the US election goes, there could be significant impacts on US economy. I think an offer of $6.25 million over 8 would be strong and effectively account for increase in cap.

What we know today with high probability is the cap will be $88M next year and $92M the year after. $92M for 25/26 is not set in stone but everything lines up for it. Cap Friendly would not have this pegged in their website if they didn't hear that from the NHL. Bettman and the NHL always provides conservative numbers too. It's what they do.

If I'm Guhle's agent, I'm talking about a $92M cap for 25/26 (nothing more, nothing less). Guhle should get 6-7% of that so just get it done.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Slavin signed a 8 year 51 mil contract yesterday. Guhle might earn a bit more.

Why??? Slavin's contract covers all UFA years, and he has 6 seasons over 30 points, with one over 40.

Guhle has 4 RFA seasons to go post his ELC contract, and his best season is 22 points.

2 year bridge to determnine long-term value, then followed by long-term commitment and we will have one of our key d-men under contract until age 33, perfect for his position.

 

[Redux91]

Why??? Slavin's contract covers all UFA years, and he has 6 seasons over 30 points, with one over 40.

Guhle has 4 RFA seasons to go post his ELC contract, aqnd his best season is 22 points.

2 year bridge to determnine long-term value, then followed by long-term commitment and we will have one of our key d-men under contract until age 33, perfect for his position.

I agree

People's Guhle contract numbers are WHACK right now
Can't even believe the outrageous numbers I'm seeing
I loooooove him but he ain't getting 5+mill right now , that is completely ridiculous

 

[Habs Halifax]

Why??? Slavin's contract covers all UFA years, and he has 6 seasons over 30 points, with one over 40.

Guhle has 4 RFA seasons to go post his ELC contract, aqnd his best season is 22 points.

2 year bridge to determnine long-term value, then followed by long-term commitment and we will have one of our key d-men under contract until age 33, perfect for his position.

2 year bridge is option B. Option A is to find common ground on a 8 year term. Option B (Bridge) could end up costing you more.

Guhle doesn't have as much pedigree as Slaf but it's not a massive gap. A bridge is tricky with Guhle IMO. Comes at a time when we are in transition and what happens if he puts up 40 pts? You got to pay him like Nurse. Could back fire on you quickly. We are holding him back a bit because we are asking him to play D. A lot of D! Same usage we did with Danault. Guhle had 5 pts with 1 goal in 9 WC's games. I think he has 40 pts seasons in him and if he does that in the next two years, you will be crying like we did with Subban and wish you did long term.

Are you too afraid to assess where Guhle is today? I think we got a good handle on that bud. Bridge is for players like Xhekaj and Barron or when you have cap issues.

 

[Tyson]

Why??? Slavin's contract covers all UFA years, and he has 6 seasons over 30 points, with one over 40.

Guhle has 4 RFA seasons to go post his ELC contract, aqnd his best season is 22 points.

2 year bridge to determnine long-term value, then followed by long-term commitment and we will have one of our key d-men under contract until age 33, perfect for his position.

I personally don't think he is worth as much as some. He won't be a point producer, hasn't proven he can stay healthy. If he can get 8x6 he should sign immediately

 

[Habs Halifax]

I agree

People's Guhle contract numbers are WHACK right now
Can't even believe the outrageous numbers I'm seeing
I loooooove him but he ain't getting 5+mill right now , that is completely ridiculous

I'll bookmark this.

I bet you a 8 year term is north of $6M. 2 year bridge is $4-$5M.

Slavin on his current contract (not new one) got $6-7% of the cap. Guhle will get similar if it's 7 or 8 years.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I personally don't think he is worth as much as some. He won't be a point producer, hasn't proven he can stay healthy. If he can get 8x6 he should sign immediately

Usage is key. Many fans ignored this with Danault and Lehkonen as well.

Guhle had 65% of D zone starts. Team Canada didn't use him that way. Closer to 50/50. And he had 5 pts in 9 games. I don't think he has 50+ pts in him but 40-45 is not a reach for Guhle if usage was more 50/50 on D and offensive zone starts.

Imagine being Danault, Guhle, or Lehkonen and hearing fans/media limit your offensive potential while your management asked you to play a D role primarily? Pretty sure that would piss you off.

 

[Rapala]

I agree

People's Guhle contract numbers are WHACK right now
Can't even believe the outrageous numbers I'm seeing
I loooooove him but he ain't getting 5+mill right now , that is completely ridiculous

He won't get more than Matheson right now but I could see a graduating contract in his case.
His overall game will get better.
I have no idea why anyone would be in a rush to sign Guhle before next off season anyway?
Give us another solid season of 70 plus games before we commit term.
If it costs us a bit more great that would mean he's still progressing as he should.

 

[BaseballCoach]

I personally don't think he is worth as much as some. He won't be a point producer, hasn't proven he can stay healthy. If he can get 8x6 he should sign immediately

I would never hand him a contract higher than $4.8M AAV right now, no matter the term.

Respect.

 

[Tyson]

Usage is key. Many fans ignored this with Danault and Lehkonen as well.

Guhle had 65% of D zone starts. Team Canada didn't use him that way. Closer to 50/50. And he had 5 pts in 9 games. I don't think he has 50+ pts in him but 40-45 is not a reach for Guhle if usage was more 50/50 on D and offensive zone starts.

Imagine being Danault, Guhle, or Lehkonen and hearing fans/media limit your offensive potential while your management asked you to play a D role primarily? Pretty sure that would piss you off.

I am just a fan with an opinion. It may vary from other opinions but my opinion is we have vastly overrated Kaiden Guhle. A solid player? Yes? Top pairing? Maybe. I just don't see the hype.

I'll bookmark this.

I bet you a 8 year term is north of $6M. 2 year bridge is $4-$5M.

Slavin on his current contract (not new one) got $6-7% of the cap. Guhle will get similar if it's 7 or 8 years.

Guhle still needs to prove he is close to being as good as Jacob Slavin, something he hasn't done yet.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I am just a fan with an opinion. It may vary from other opinions but my opinion is we have vastly overrated Kaiden Guhle. A solid player? Yes? Top pairing? Maybe. I just don't see the hype.


Guhle still needs to prove he is close to being as good as Jacob Slavin, something he hasn't done yet.

It's all good. I don't see top pairing with Guhle. I see a very strong top 4D and someone we played obsessively on the D side. Team Canada didn't have the same usage. I don't think he will put up 50+ pts yes but 40-45 is reachable with different usage. I bet you Guhle sees it the same.

This is about the new top 4D rates with a $92M+ cap for 25/26. Slavin got 6-7% and I think Guhle will get similar.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Are you too afraid to assess where Guhle is today? I think we got a good handle on that bud. Bridge is for players like Xhekaj and Barron or when you have cap issues.

Bridges are for uncertain situations. There is hardly a player we have with a more UN-certain projection than Guhle. It's insane how variable his ultimate numbers might be.

I would rather give Xhekaj 6 years at $2M to be a fixture on our bottom pairing, than commit to a long-term number for Guhle right now.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Bridges are for uncertain situations. There is hardly a player we have with a more UN-certain projection than Guhle. It's insane how variable his ultimate numbers might be.

I would rather give Xhekaj 6 years at $2M to be a fixture on our bottom pairing, than commit to a long-term number for Guhle right now.

Xhekaj won't sign for $2M for 6 years. So your preferred narrative is flawed. How do you think that is a possibility? Come on man, you are better than that.

This is about new top 4D rates with a $92M salary cap (25/26). You're living in 2017 with a $75M cap.

Guhle is proven and is a top 4D today right now. He's been used obsessively on the D side and took on that role because he is a team player. However, he's got more to provide on the offensive side. Not like Matheson or Hutson level but more than what you think. He is our most well rounded guy on D.

 

[BLNY]

What we know today with high probability is the cap will be $88M next year and $92M the year after. $92M for 25/26 is not set in stone but everything lines up for it. Cap Friendly would not have this pegged in their website if they didn't hear that from the NHL. Bettman and the NHL always provides conservative numbers too. It's what they do.

If I'm Guhle's agent, I'm talking about a $92M cap for 25/26 (nothing more, nothing less). Guhle should get 6-7% of that so just get it done.

they can project the 92 all they want. Wouldn't be the first time they revise based on various factors not considered or expected. I wouldn't be putting much faith in $92 million for 25-26 at this point.

 

[Habs Halifax]

they can project the 92 all they want. Wouldn't be the first time they revise based on various factors not considered or expected. I wouldn't be putting much faith in $92 million for 25-26 at this point.

It's not a projection based on nothing. It's what the NHL provided and Bettman always predicts conservative numbers. It's what they do. Cap Friendly has that shown on their website and if they felt it was some gullible reach, it would not be there. $92M for 25/26 is creditable.

No doubt in my mind Guhle and his agent are taking that approach. Hughes is probably around $6M and Guhle/Agent probably starts high at $7.5M (8 year term talk).

IMO, Guhle is a proven top 4D today right now. Imagine what his offensive numbers would be if he had closer to 50/50 splits? Last year, we started him 65% on the D side. Why? Because nobody else other than Savard could.

I don't like the bridge at all with Guhle.

 

[Rapala]

I personally don't think he is worth as much as some. He won't be a point producer, hasn't proven he can stay healthy. If he can get 8x6 he should sign immediately

This is Guhle for me in a nutshell.

I really like his decision making when he does press it's extremely solid. He does have upside 5v5 because of it.
Playing a decent chunk of the season with Matheson will limit his opportunities for obvious reasons.
The only criticism I have with Kaiden Guhle is actually his penchant for trying to be overly physical when he doesn't have to.
His strengths have always been his positioning his mobility his vision and his stick work.
Maybe 5 years from now he'll have the frame to be a physical beast but in the mean time he should be getting better advice.
Perhaps because Matheson is not physical at all he feels he has to be the one bringing it all the time.
I've loved this player going back to his Junior days and none of that love was tied to his physicality.

 

[BLNY]

It's not a projection based on nothing. It's what the NHL provided and Bettman always predicts conservative numbers. It's what they do. Cap Friendly has that shown on their website and if they felt it was some gullible reach, it would not be there. $92M for 25/26 is creditable.

No doubt in my mind Guhle and his agent are taking that approach. Hughes is probably around $6M and Guhle/Agent probably starts high at $7.5M (8 year term talk).

IMO, Guhle is a proven top 4D today right now. Imagine what his offensive numbers would be if he had closer to 50/50 splits? Last year, we started him 65% on the D side. Why? Because nobody else other than Savard could.

I don't like the bridge at all with Guhle.

It's credible NOW, but numbers two seasons out have been adjusted later before. They can push messaging out that this is the planned arc, but nothing is written in stone.

 

[7roy]

However, he's got more to provide on the offensive side.

Glad I'm not the only that sees this. A guy who puts up 18 5v5 points in 44 games in his first year is not someone that lacks offensive talent. This year he was taking defensive zone shifts so the more "offensive defensemen" we have weren't exposed as much. 22yo forced to play like a veteran and, at least on the defensive side, he was succeeding. He also gets no PP time to make his numbers look nice(not that it matters since the 2nd unit had no good forwards on it and 1st unit is Matheson's).

Only u25 Dman that got as many Dzone starts relative to Ozone against that quality of competition this season is Seider, and they both produced similarly at 5v5. Not saying Guhle gets Seider money(Seider does run his teams powerplay and is a RHD and overall better) but Guhle's already a great Dman and is only going to get better.

Not a pressing concern anyways. It likely gets done at the end of next season

 

[Habs Halifax]

Glad I'm not the only that sees this. A guy who puts up 18 5v5 points in 44 games in his first year is not someone that lacks offensive talent. This year he was taking defensive zone shifts so the more "offensive defensemen" we have weren't exposed as much. 22yo forced to play like a veteran and, at least on the defensive side, he was succeeding. He also gets no PP time to make his numbers look nice(not that it matters since the 2nd unit had no good forwards on it and 1st unit is Matheson's).

Only u25 Dman that got as many Dzone starts relative to Ozone against that quality of competition this season is Seider, and they both produced similarly at 5v5. Not saying Guhle gets Seider money(Seider does run his teams powerplay and is a RHD and overall better) but Guhle's already a great Dman and is only going to get better.

Not a pressing concern anyways. It likely gets done at the end of next season

Some fans will never learn. They did it with Danault and Lehkonen as well. Our coaches obsessively used them in Defensive roles and fans attacked them for their points. It's exactly how we used Guhle last year. Defensive side. Only Savard and Guhle had shut down ability.

Guhle had 5 pts in 9 WC's game and I bet you his usage was more 50/50 (offense/defense). He's a proven top 4D now and he's got more offensive to provide. Not 50+ like Matheson or Hutson but he's more than just some defensive specialist that can't put up 30 pts.

We see it similarly. There is a reason why the Ducks want Guhle or Reinbacher for Zegras and they don't like Hutson.