Player Discussion Josh Norris C 6’1” - Part 2

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

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Money puck has us at 22% odds over 1/5 chance. In what way does that mean the season is over.

Anyways you have your opinion I have mine.

Still statistically improbable and overwhelmingly so. There is some hope, but its an incredibly slim margin for error.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

We are 7 points out of the playoffs with over half the season left to go...
Jeez you guys must live depressing lives lol

I think we are already in the playoffs.

 

[PoutineSp00nZ]

game 37, they have 37 points.

teams 4, 5 and 6 in the Metro (and so they can cross over into spot 4 in the Atlantic) have 44 points.. If we assume they maintain that pace.. ~ 97.5 points. so say 97 points is needed.

Last year 100 points was needed, but we will live with the 97.

they need 60 more points.

45 games. left. That projects to 109 points (over an 82 game season). That is a playing rate that would otherwise get you tied for 9th overall (last season) . 2nd overall in 18-19, 5th overall in 17-18.. you see the point? 109 points will probably result in a 6th or 7th place finish this year. Are you really seeing them as a top 10 team.

their last 14 games..rock solid..picked up 18 points.. 105 point season.. still leaves them a tad short. And I doubt they will keep it up..

But who knows..Maybe you are right. GO Sens.

People get obsessed over the math. If the Senators put a streak together, the math becomes less daunting going forward after that.

It's not likely that they make the playoffs but it's still possible. Stranger things have happened. Team's with lesser odds in this market have made the playoffs.

I'm just glad to be cheering for wins again. Its been a long ass time.

 

[Beech]

People get obsessed over the math. If the Senators put a streak together, the math becomes less daunting going forward after that.

It's not likely that they make the playoffs but it's still possible. Stranger things have happened. Team's with lesser odds in this market have made the playoffs.

I'm just glad to be cheering for wins again. Its been a long ass time.

check out the NFL. There is a saying there. Start 0 and 2 and goodbye playoffs. Strangely enough, it tends to be accurate. At best 1 team a year starts 0 and 2 and makes it..1 out of 14 (it was 12 for a long time). The math does not always tell the picture, but it can give a strong indication.

They needed to be as little as 4 points higher at this time to have a real chance. And as little as 6 points higher to make life easier. As strange as it sounds, 4-6 points is like being pregnant or not. Unreal.

Be careful of that seemingly meaningless game in late October against the Anaheim Ducks. That dropped 2 points and those dropped 2 points a day later in San Jose can end seasons.

 

[Cosmix]

Still statistically improbable and overwhelmingly so. There is some hope, but its an incredibly slim margin for error.

The Senators have a 22.6% chance of making the playoffs; conversely they have a 77.4% chance of being in the Bedard Lottery.

 

[R We A Team]

Playoffs or not, this year the team has been a blast to watch especially when they are throwing it around on the powerplay.

Can't wait to see this team with everyone properly slotted and healthy.

 

[Mookie McGee]

Norris is a better player at the same age. This teams entire core outstide of Giroux is 25 and under. Horvat isnt in that age group. I dont understand why Ottawa would ever consider this unless they think his shoulder is done.

Landeskog is 4 years older than Rantanen. Stamkos is 5 years older than Point. Why does everyone need to be the same age to win? More important seems to be some size and skill mix in the top 6, and we are generally low on the size factor.

 

[bert]

Landeskog is 4 years older than Rantanen. Stamkos is 5 years older than Point. Why does everyone need to be the same age to win? More important seems to be some size and skill mix in the top 6, and we are generally low on the size factor.

So they're in their prime at the same time. He's signed for 7 more years. He's a hard player too. They're very similar.

 

[SensFan1010]

5 points out of a playoff spot, season is over we are doomed! Start the rebuild!

 

[Ice-Tray]

I think we’re all just realists. Everything is relative and not only are there are a bunch of other very good teams very close and in the hunt, the teams that are in a playoff position now are very good and have no reason right now to falter. If you don’t expect a miracle to happen you won’t get let down when they fall short and I think just short would still be a very productive season.

My opinion and not a personal attack…

The “Realist” label (such a bullshit self description to begin with) is great for the ‘real world’, but this is escapism sports entertainment!!! If you can’t leap out on the ledge for pro sports where we have literally nothing on the line, and no control over the outcome, when can you in life?

Emotional bet hedging in sports is super lame. If you you don’t go all in you never get to experience the highs of beating the odds, you just jump on the bandwagon you’ve been shitting and pissing on all season, or, you pretend to be super smart when we don’t make it and lord it over those who kept the game alight the whole time… also lame.

I can’t believe we have actual self described Sens fans in here touting low playoff percentages after every win.

Those fans suck.

 

[HSF]

My opinion and not a personal attack…

The “Realist” label (such a bullshit self description to begin with) is great for the ‘real world’, but this is escapism sports entertainment!!! If you can’t leap out on the ledge for pro sports where we have literally nothing on the line, and no control over the outcome, when can you in life?

Emotional bet hedging in sports is super lame. If you you don’t go all in you never get to experience the highs of beating the odds, you just jump on the bandwagon you’ve been shitting and pissing on all season, or, you pretend to be super smart when we don’t make it and lord it over those who kept the game alight the whole time… also lame.

I can’t believe we have actual self described Sens fans in here touting low playoff percentages after every win.

Those fans suck.

nah those fans want change and want to the Sens to build a perennial contender

 

[Ice-Tray]

nah those fans want change and want to the Sens to build a perennial contender

Hey, I like those things two, but neither of us are dumping on the team and endlessly pointing out odds of missing the playoffs are we?

Tonight was another solid win that puts us over .500 finally and has us closer to the wildcard spot.

Battling and playing meaningful games is the goal, and so far we still are.

Change will come, and I’ll roll with it, but I don’t want change for the sake of it, or some kind of weird fan vengeance, and I want smart calculated decisions on that front.

Same as you I’d wager.

I also want a perennial contender, and I think we have the horses for it, though they are still colts as of yet….

 

[HSF]

Hey, I like those things two, but neither of us are dumping on the team and endlessly pointing out odds of missing the playoffs are we?

Tonight was another solid win that puts us over .500 finally and has us closer to the wildcard spot.

Battling and playing meaningful games is the goal, and so far we still are.

Change will come, and I’ll roll with it, but I don’t want change for the sake of it, or some kind of weird fan vengeance, and I want smart calculated decisions on that front.

Same as you I’d wager.

I also want a perennial contender, and I think we have the horses for it, though they are still colts as of yet….

I think the issue is that your definition of meaningful games and others are different. A lot of people believe that the sens were out of it in november and want change

 

[Dan Patrick]

My opinion and not a personal attack…

The “Realist” label (such a bullshit self description to begin with) is great for the ‘real world’, but this is escapism sports entertainment!!! If you can’t leap out on the ledge for pro sports where we have literally nothing on the line, and no control over the outcome, when can you in life?

Emotional bet hedging in sports is super lame. If you you don’t go all in you never get to experience the highs of beating the odds, you just jump on the bandwagon you’ve been shitting and pissing on all season, or, you pretend to be super smart when we don’t make it and lord it over those who kept the game alight the whole time… also lame.

I can’t believe we have actual self described Sens fans in here touting low playoff percentages after every win.

Those fans suck.

I don’t know how I feel about people trying to tell others how to be a fan. Just because I think we have an extremely hard road to the playoffs and are much more likely to fall short doesn’t diminish or preclude me from experiencing the high of them getting in if they did. Getting told you have to be blindly optimistic in order to enjoy a teams success is just a different kind of suck.

To each there own brother (or sister).

 

[Xspyrit]

What would people think of a trade centered around Norris for Bo Horvat? Yes Norris is younger and may score more points per game in his career (they are about even to date). But Horvat is only 27, and his 215 big body gets us size at center when paired with Stutzle as the top 6 centers. The guy has 11 goals in 23 playoff games too, a sort of Big Game Bo reputation and is really flying this year.
Canucks know he wants out, and moving him now helps them tank this year with a great draft crop.

Sorry to say this but one of the worst idea I’ve seen in a while

 

[Sensinitis]

What would people think of a trade centered around Norris for Bo Horvat? Yes Norris is younger and may score more points per game in his career (they are about even to date). But Horvat is only 27, and his 215 big body gets us size at center when paired with Stutzle as the top 6 centers. The guy has 11 goals in 23 playoff games too, a sort of Big Game Bo reputation and is really flying this year.
Canucks know he wants out, and moving him now helps them tank this year with a great draft crop.

Nah

 

[Ice-Tray]

I think the issue is that your definition of meaningful games and others are different. A lot of people believe that the sens were out of it in november and want change

But see, we aren’t out of it, and it’s January.

So I give zero f’s for fans who gave up a month into the season.

Change is change and it will happen at some point, because this is pro sports. Given that we have zero control and zero knowledge of when that will happen, it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to get bogged down by it does it?

There are actual games being played, and won, in the meantime to be excited about. We’re closing the gap bit by bit so far, and are the games not fun?

 

[Ice-Tray]

I don’t know how I feel about people trying to tell others how to be a fan. Just because I think we have an extremely hard road to the playoffs and are much more likely to fall short doesn’t diminish or preclude me from experiencing the high of them getting in if they did. Getting told you have to be blindly optimistic in order to enjoy a teams success is just a different kind of suck.

To each there own brother (or sister).

But that’s not really what you said in that post, but hey, if that’s what you meant to say then cool, because that’s got all kinds of hopeful tints. I tried to be clear that it wasn’t a personal response, yours was just the latest when I joined the thread.

Lots of people have posted that the season is over, and have been for a while now. No, they won’t enjoy the high as much as those who kept the faith, that’s how it works, and that’s how emotional bet hedging works. They will bandwagon.

Hey, I’m not telling people how to be a fan, I’m commenting on what I think about that behaviour, there is a difference.

‘Blindly optimistic’ is another dumpy phrase that some folks use to describe those that have hope, and enjoy being hopeful about their sports team. The fight for being the most ‘rational’ fan is the biggest zero sum farce there is in pro sports fandom in my opinion. It’s like shooting for mediocrity, seems…. Lame?

I’ll take being hopeful that the Sens make the playoffs, or come close, than constantly arguing that they’ll never make it after every win.

As I said, folks can do and think what they want, and I’ll feel free to share my opinions as I see fit as well.

 

[aragorn]

- we have a very good young team that is maturing & will only get better as these guys start entering their prime & reach their potential.
- we have two good top lines & when everyone is healthy we can put together two good PPs.
- we have a decent PK which could get better if Formenton returns.
- we have 3 very good defenders in Chabot, Sanderson & Zub.
- we finally have two good goalies.
- we just need to upgrade the bottom six & that is coming internally & find 3 more good defencemen.
- We should be able to add a future impact player in this yr's draft.

 

[boxbox]

Still statistically improbable and overwhelmingly so. There is some hope, but its an incredibly slim margin for error

there is half a season to play still and we are talking about playoffssss ????? playoffffffffssssss ?????

 

[HSF]

But that’s not really what you said in that post, but hey, if that’s what you meant to say then cool, because that’s got all kinds of hopeful tints. I tried to be clear that it wasn’t a personal response, yours was just the latest when I joined the thread.

Lots of people have posted that the season is over, and have been for a while now. No, they won’t enjoy the high as much as those who kept the faith, that’s how it works, and that’s how emotional bet hedging works. They will bandwagon.

Hey, I’m not telling people how to be a fan, I’m commenting on what I think about that behaviour, there is a difference.

‘Blindly optimistic’ is another dumpy phrase that some folks use to describe those that have hope, and enjoy being hopeful about their sports team. The fight for being the most ‘rational’ fan is the biggest zero sum farce there is in pro sports fandom in my opinion. It’s like shooting for mediocrity, seems…. Lame?

I’ll take being hopeful that the Sens make the playoffs, or come close, than constantly arguing that they’ll never make it after every win.

As I said, folks can do and think what they want, and I’ll feel free to share my opinions as I see fit as well.

that's the thing though. Your definition of meaningful games is just different. The Sens are very unlikely to make the playoffs cause they lost so many at the start

 

[Ice-Tray]

that's the thing though. Your definition of meaningful games is just different. The Sens are very unlikely to make the playoffs cause they lost so many at the start

Except the rest of the sentence is playing meaningful games “in March”.

‘My’ definition is simply what management set as the expectation, not a personal creation.

I guess we’ll see. I think there will be some teams that won lots early that will fade when the games get tougher, but we’ll see.

We’re playing important games right now, which is super fun to watch. It’s a crazy tight Conference this year, can’t be helped.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Except the rest of the sentence is playing meaningful games “in March”.

‘My’ definition is simply what management set as the expectation, not a personal creation.

I guess we’ll see. I think there will be some teams that won lots early that will fade when the games get tougher, but we’ll see.

We’re playing important games right now, which is super fun to watch. It’s a crazy tight Conference this year, can’t be helped.

We're playing important games right now because almost any losing streak and we're done lol

 

[Ice-Tray]

We're playing important games right now because almost any losing streak and we're done lol

Sure, but that’s not really a realistic situation for us at any point this year in our development. Of course we’re going to have wins streaks and losing streaks, we’re young and inexperienced and lack consistency.

If it wasn’t for this insane eastern conference year we’d be looking better in the standings. Having said that, being this close to a spot at this point in the year is actually a good thing in terms of development.

Consider that if we had even a mediocre record for November we’d likely be in a playoff spot or a point or so back. That’s about as good as the wildest expectations for this team would have had us at this point.

We’re playing meaningful games because we hit a break 5 points back of a wildcard spot with 40 games to go.

 

[Icelevel]

The Senators have a 22.6% chance of making the playoffs; conversely they have a 77.4% chance of being in the Bedard Lottery.

How does that change if they win the next 2 games?
Curious