Value of: Johnny Hockey

[madmike77]

Does Huberdeau's deal affect Gaudreau's asking price? Both the same age, same position, but JG is the far superior player. If Huberdeau is getting 5.9 per, I don't see how JG's agent doesn't figure he's worth at least 1.5per more.

6 years, 7.5 per? How would Flames fans feel about that?

They can get him for 5 years at 5 or 5.5 likely since those would all be RFA years, so 7.5 per is too much for just 1 UFA year.

If it was an 8-year deal, then 7.5 a year is fine. Anything less and the average per year goes down by a fair bit.

 

[MonyontheMoney]

Okay, but it's the same thing from your end? Gaudreau's other season was 64 points, which is about Eberle's usual pace... I'm not disagreeing that Gaudreau is way better and more valuable, but the argument makes no sense.

Sure, I can't argue the numbers Gaudreau, or Eberle put up, as those are fact. However, I don't think it's the same. I don't think we can look at stats from two seasons and determine which one is the outlier, but we can with someone who has played 6 seasons.

 

[MonyontheMoney]

Who gets more goals this upcoming season?

I think Eberle.

So by your logic, Marchand is a better player than Crosby because he scored more goals? That's almost as bad as the initial Eberle/Gaudreau comparison.

Only way Eberle scores 30 is if he's riding shotgun alongside McDavid. Gaudreau creates his offence. I wonder how many Gaudreau scores if he plays with one of the best/most dynamic players in the world.

 

[tony d]

If he where made available I'd like Ottawa to go for him. A 2017 1st, Colin White and Bobby Ryan get it done?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Huberdeau's contract was 2 years RFA, 4 years UFA.

A 6 year Gaudreau contract would be 5 year RFA, 1 year UFA. If you notice, the RFA years have been valued at significantly lower than UFA years. Like getting into half price for RFA years compared to UFA years.

If you look at Hub's contract as 4, 4, 7, 7, 7, 7, I'd be more than happy giving Gaudreau 1.5M for each RFA year and even 3M for each UFA year more than Hub's but that contract is still 5.5M, 5.5M, 5.5M, 5.5M, 5.5M, 10M for 6.25M/year. That's no where close to 7.5M.

The only way Gaudreau should see 7.5M is if it's an 8 year contract.

I'd be pretty surprised if his RFA years were really worth so little. Kane's RFA deal 5 years ago was 5 years @ 6.3M (7.75M AAV adjusted for inflation) and bought no UFA years. I have to think that Gaudreau's RFA years are worth nearly what Kane's were based on performance at the same age.

 

[yababy]

I'd be pretty surprised if his RFA years were really worth so little. Kane's RFA deal 5 years ago was 5 years @ 6.3M (7.75M AAV adjusted for inflation) and bought no UFA years. I have to think that Gaudreau's RFA years are worth nearly what Kane's were based on performance at the same age.

and since Gaudreau isn't keen to stay in Calgary his UFA $ is worth a ton. I'd say 10M plus

 

[KidLine93]

Thinking a player is done improving in their 2nd season is comical to me.

His career has played out pretty similar to Eberle's at the same age. And they were very similar players entering the league.

Small, shifty, great scoring touch.

 

[Paper]

I'd be pretty surprised if his RFA years were really worth so little. Kane's RFA deal 5 years ago was 5 years @ 6.3M (7.75M AAV adjusted for inflation) and bought no UFA years. I have to think that Gaudreau's RFA years are worth nearly what Kane's were based on performance at the same age.

Kane's contract bought a year. He had three years of high production as well compared to Gaudreau's two, which is worth something.

RFA
3 from ELC
4 from next contract

UFA
1 from contract

I think the shift in terms of 'undervaluing' RFA years and overvaluing UFA years has been pronounced more as of late. We've seen teams play major hardball with RFA, like Subban's 2.875M bridge contract.

A 6M/year for the 5 RFA years, and 10M/year for the 3 UFA years would give a contract AAV of 7.5M. Which I would be fine with.

 

[RedHot]

and since Gaudreau isn't keen to stay in Calgary his UFA $ is worth a ton. I'd say 10M plus

Hey look, it's the no source kid again

 

[Flamesjustwin]

If he where made available I'd like Ottawa to go for him. A 2017 1st, Colin White and Bobby Ryan get it done?

Not even close.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

If he where made available I'd like Ottawa to go for him. A 2017 1st, Colin White and Bobby Ryan get it done?

Why? Would Calgary want Bobby Ryan over Johnny Gaudreau who's the much better player. Makes zero sense for Calgary.

 

[SlapshotTheMovie]

New York rangers offer Marc Staal, Dan Gerardi, Tanner Glass, and a 7th round pick with a condition of an additional 6th if the rangers win a cup.

 

[Roof Daddy]

They can get him for 5 years at 5 or 5.5 likely since those would all be RFA years, so 7.5 per is too much for just 1 UFA year.

If it was an 8-year deal, then 7.5 a year is fine. Anything less and the average per year goes down by a fair bit.

I would have to think if they could actually get him between 5 and 5.5 for 5 years, he'd be signed already.

I guess we'll see what happens, but the only way I see him taking 5.5 would be on a 2 year bridge. That could blow up in their faces in 2 years (see Subban).

 

[vipernsx]

Jacob Trouba fan saying hello. It's about time you got a taste of the insanity.

Truth is GMs are playing hard ball with all UFAs this year.

This just in, Las Vegas has entered a team into the World Cup comprised of all RFAs

Starting lineup will be:
Gaudreau - Rakell - Kucherov
Lindholm - Trouba

Coming off the bench are Nichushkin & Ristolainen.

I wouldn't blame the Flames.

Johnny is still a bachelor isn't he? I doubt he misses the east coast that much. I could see if he had young kids that he wanted to be close to.

Flyers fans can start the Johnny count down to free agency like we did for Bobby Ryan.

...and Toronto did for Stamkos and continues to do for Tavares.

New York rangers offer Marc Staal, Dan Gerardi, Tanner Glass, and a 7th round pick with a condition of an additional 6th if the rangers win a cup.

I think if you throw in a Mark Messier leadership camp and a Chris Drury pizza pie, you'll close the deal for sure!

 

[blankall]

His career has played out pretty similar to Eberle's at the same age. And they were very similar players entering the league.

Small, shifty, great scoring touch.

And then Eberle fizzled out, which Gaudreau hasn't done. If Eberle had stayed a near ppg scorer, he'd be worth more. Gaudreau has potential still and is worth more. It's the reason a lottery ticket is worth more before the draw than after and the numbers don't come up. Eberle was also given a 6 million dollar contract extension (equivalent to around a 7 mil today), which he never lived up to.

Give it a rest. Gaudreau has more value than Eberle. If Gaudreau declines for 4 years straight, then they'll be even. That hasn't happened yet.

 

[blankall]

If he where made available I'd like Ottawa to go for him. A 2017 1st, Colin White and Bobby Ryan get it done?

If Gaudreau is out, the Flames core becomes even younger. In other words, a 29 year old Ryan has zero value to the Flames in that scenario.

 

[victor]

Give it a rest. Gaudreau has more value than Eberle. If Gaudreau declines for 4 years straight, then they'll be even. That hasn't happened yet.

Yet?

PS: People should check out Eberle's stats against Gaudreau's for their first two seasons in the NHL. I get why Treliving's afraid to break out the checkbook.

 

[yababy]

Eberle had 25 goals during an injury season. Even without McDavid I say he's 30-35 goals this year.
Might even break Oilers slump 26 seasons without a 40 goal scorer

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Yet?

PS: People should check out Eberle's stats against Gaudreau's for their first two seasons in the NHL. I get why Treliving's afraid to break out the checkbook.

Might want to also check their shooting percentages.

Eberle, in a higher scoring league, out up a combined 65 point pace over his first two seasons, with an unsustainable shooting percentage of 19% in his second season.

Gaudreau, in a lower scoring league, put up a 73 point pace over his first two seasons, with a very consistent shooting percentage.

 

[CaptainSexyPants]

Gaudreau has been at his pace for 1.5 seasons plus a 2 week playoff run. No one is treating Gaudreau like a 50 goal scorer. They are treating him like a young player who was tied for 6th overall in scoring. Once again, it's not just the stats with Gaudreau. If you watch him play, it's the way he generates his offence, which creates the buzz.

Isn't that true of every highly skilled offensive guy? Hemsky did it for years (as less a goal scorer and more a setup guy). Exciting to watch and created offense all over the place. I don't think that anyone would have put him in the same breath as two of the leagues top players at the time.

Maybe another way to put it...
Gaudreau doesn't play a high value position (like C or D) and he doesn't bring any real high value skill sets outside of offense (he's not hard to play against the way a Kopitar is, doesn't have defense like a Bergeron, or an in-your-face power forward game like a Benn). He is a flashy offensive winger who would be undersized for ladies badminton. It's not a knock on him, it is what he is and so far he's excellent at it. But in being that, he's going to be judged on the numbers that he generates. To this point those numbers are very good, but until he not only continues that pace but improves on it fairly significantly, I don't see how he's even close to being worthy of this Franchise Player label that some other folks around here seem to.

 

[izzy]

Sure, I can't argue the numbers Gaudreau, or Eberle put up, as those are fact. However, I don't think it's the same. I don't think we can look at stats from two seasons and determine which one is the outlier, but we can with someone who has played 6 seasons.

I don't disagree, but if you can't judge one player by a single season, you can't judge the other

 

[CaptainSexyPants]

Might want to also check their shooting percentages.

Eberle, in a higher scoring league, out up a combined 65 point pace over his first two seasons, with an unsustainable shooting percentage of 19% in his second season.

Gaudreau, in a lower scoring league, put up a 73 point pace over his first two seasons, with a very consistent shooting percentage.

We can make excuses on both fronts.


Gaudreau hasn't had to adjust to 27 coaches during his NHL tenure.
...Gaudreau hasn't had Eakins for a coach.
Gaudreau hasn't had Sam Gagner for a #1 center.
Eberle hasn't had anything even remotely close to the D feeding him that Gaudreau has.

And this "low scoring league" thing is ridiculous. It's 4 years, people; not 40.

 

[victor]

Might want to also check their shooting percentages.

Eberle, in a higher scoring league, out up a combined 65 point pace over his first two seasons, with an unsustainable shooting percentage of 19% in his second season.

Gaudreau, in a lower scoring league, put up a 73 point pace over his first two seasons, with a very consistent shooting percentage.

Eberle: 147gp - 52g - 67a - 119pts, 0.353GPG, 0.809PPG, 29.0g/gp, 66.4p/gp
Gaudreau: 159gp - 54g - 88a - 142pts, 0.339GPG, 0.893PPG, 27.8g/gp, 73.2p/gp

Eberle's 1st year in the NHL was as a 20 year old, Gaudreau's was a 21 year old.

With only two seasons of data, I can really understand why this is going to be a difficult contract.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

We can make excuses on both fronts.


Gaudreau hasn't had to adjust to 27 coaches during his NHL tenure.
...Gaudreau hasn't had Eakins for a coach.
Gaudreau hasn't had Sam Gagner for a #1 center.
Eberle hasn't had anything even remotely close to the D feeding him that Gaudreau has.

And this "low scoring league" thing is ridiculous. It's 4 years, people; not 40.

The two seasons in question, Eberle had the same coach (Renney). And his 2 most common linemates in 2011-2012? Two 1st overall picks in RNH and Hall. He very rarely played with Gagner in his first two seasons.

Meanwhile, Gaudreau played half his rookie season being centered by Jooris or Granlund.

 

[InfinityIggy]

The two seasons in question, Eberle had the same coach (Renney). And his 2 most common linemates in 2011-2012? Two 1st overall picks in RNH and Hall. He very rarely played with Gagner in his first two seasons.

Meanwhile, Gaudreau played half his rookie season being centered by Jooris or Granlund.

He made Jooris look like a phenomenal pickup for awhile.