Yeah, even the Carter trade was better than that. Maybe the reason Columbus was able to land Nathan Horton was because the other clubs couldn't insure him and backed out? We'll likely never know.
That is an angle I hadn't put much thought to. If CBJ were the only team willing to take the risk in 2013, that would explain what I thought at the time was a deeper discount by Horton on contract price (although not term) than I expected, and would also have explained the initial love affair that Horton appeared to genuinely have toward CBJ and Columbus in general - if CBJ were the only club willing to take a risk on him, imagine how that made him feel, especially if he was confident that shoulder injuries would heal (and the back issue had not yet sprouted its ugly head)!
Having said that, however, Bruins' brass appeared surprised and hugely disappointed upon learning that Horton was leaving B's, per the "Behind the B" episodes in 2013. If B's brass were being straight up, that would suggest that B's brass didn't have any knowledge of insurability problem (or they had other contracts to insure). That wouldn't fit this narrative; who knows what posturing Bruins' brass were up to when those episodes were filmed. For various reasons they may not have wanted Horton to think (even after the fact) that they didn't want him, or that they had knowledge of injury issues that made insuring his contract impractical, impossible or simply not efficient, even for Boston.
As you said. Lee, we will probably never know the whole story. The one thing I do KNOW is that I would have loved to have seen a healthy Nathan Horton leading the CBJ the past 3 years...He and Boone would have been hell together to play against, especially with what then appeared to be a big potential RyJo in between them.
I could see CBJ brass falling in love with that idea then (Boone would have been Horton's protege, he hadn't made his splash with big club yet), and taking an educated gamble on Horton. On a team willing to spend excess cash, so what if he ended up LTIR? But CBJ is not a team with unlimited cash or sources of revenue, and JD/JK were relatively new to CBJ at that time (JD came on board in fall of 2012, JK Feb 2013), looking to make a splash in the early offseason of 2013, thinking Horton was a major brick, knowing the insurance/health gamble, but thinking the shoulder was the only big concern and it would heal. They mis-calculated CBJ ownership's willingness to pay LTIR pay of $5M + per year if the gamble failed, and my theory is that they hadn't been there long enough to know better and they may not have effectively communicated all the nuances to ownership because the risk of having some injury (not the shoulder) put Horton into shutdown mode seemed small especially when compared to the potential upside, and LTIR would address any cap space issues if injury was a long-term issue, to the point that it may have seemed a no-brainer to them from their StL days (and other franchises) that $5M x 5 for this low-risk gamble on talent and character would be supported by ownership. They have since discovered that CBJ is not StL, in terms of television contract, ownership $, etc....
I don't have an issue with the Horton deal, if it had ended there. From a pure HOCKEY perspective, if JD/JK took that calculated gamble, I'm good with that.
It is the effects of the subsequent Clarkson substitution (cap hit / contract term / expansion draft) that drive me batty.
Why did I start this post?
We've killed this issue before, and I get more nauseated each time I re-visit it.