John Tavares has taken that next step.

[Dekes For Days]

And the part that I find interesting is that the team that lost him did not regress at all and nay have even gotten better.
And the team that got him did not improve at all and may even have gotten worse the first 2,years.

Actually, we've improved quite a bit in everything other than goaltending since getting Tavares, and the Islanders really just reverted back to what they had been before their outlier dip in 2017-2018, despite the emergence of multiple good defensemen to improve their defense, and despite getting much better goaltending, and despite the addition of a similar forward in Barzal.

 

[CapspaceKiller]

He played some excellent defensive hockey against the oilers, but lets not kid ourselves he's struggled this season. He is over-thinking everything and you'll see him do too much with the puck. I think he'll turn some of that around, but will probably have to simplify his game as he ages and he'll transition to a 55-70pt getting shutdown center. Its definitely overpayment for 11million, but that's free agency for ya. And his contract ends when he's 34 years old, I doubt they'll need to buy him out, that's sky is falling,chicken little stuff.

 

[IrishInOntario]

Realistically, JT has been roughly a PPG player his entire career. That's what he is... He's had some unchracteristic blown scoring chances this year and should have 4-6 more points this season, which would have him right on, or above his usual PPG pace. If he can round back into that PPG pace, while continuing to play a sound defensive game, that's all that should be asked of him... Is that that an 11 million dollar player? No, it's more like a 9-10 million dollar player, but that's Kyle Dubas' fault for paying him that much, not John Tavares' fault for taking the money.

21 points in 25 games... Again, only a few points off his normal pace, with some headscratching misses this year. He's easily left half a dozen "gimme" points on the ice. Absolutely no doubt that he needs to improve there over the back half of the season, but I don't want to see the defensive game fall off either.

Two things that I want to see that could help Tavares be his regular self for the rest of the regular season.

1. Continue to play him in the bumper position with Matthews and Marner on the PP. Points will absolutely come with JT in front of the net. I don't care if you want to split the PP unit up, but he absolutely should continue on PP1.

2. Get him a left wing to play with Nylander and himself. I don't think Alex Kerfoot is nearly dangerous enough offensively on a consistent basis. Tavares and Willy would both benefit from the addition of a legit, top 6, left wing.

 

[saltming]

Realistically, JT has been roughly a PPG player his entire career. That's what he is... He's had some unchracteristic blown scoring chances this year and should have 4-6 more points this season, which would have him right on, or above his usual PPG pace. If he can round back into that PPG pace, while continuing to play a sound defensive game, that's all that should be asked of him... Is that that an 11 million dollar player? No, it's more like a 9-10 million dollar player, but that's Kyle Dubas' fault for paying him that much, not John Tavares' fault for taking the money.

21 points in 25 games... Again, only a few points off his normal pace, with some headscratching misses this year. He's easily left half a dozen "gimme" points on the ice. Absolutely no doubt that he needs to improve there over the back half of the season, but I don't want to see the defensive game fall off either.

Two things that I want to see that could help Tavares be his regular self for the rest of the regular season.

1. Continue to play him in the bumper position with Matthews and Marner on the PP. Points will absolutely come with JT in front of the net. I don't care if you want to split the PP unit up, but he absolutely should continue on PP1.

2. Get him a left wing to play with Nylander and himself. I don't think Alex Kerfoot is nearly dangerous enough offensively on a consistent basis. Tavares and Willy would both benefit from the addition of a legit, top 6, left wing.

For #2 Simmonds will be back eventually

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

hockey is a game of mistakes, there isn’t a single player this year who hasn’t made a bad decision. Your entire post is completely opposite of what his stats actually dictate. If you focus on only bad things, then ya he does only bad things.

Just because you’ve watched or played hockey your whole life doesn’t mean you have any clue as to what’s going on, or how the systems dictate his positioning should be.

Ok..so his positioning is supposed to be a few feet away from the guy with the puck in the slot? Or is it to make blind passes in his own zone more than any other player on the Leafs by far?

Are you saying he is not slow? How he played with Marner and Matthews and still was stuck in his slump says it better than anything I could type. I like his effort...but c'mon man..he ain't worth 11m a year...he just isn't.

 

[IrishInOntario]

For #2 Simmonds will be back eventually

I LOVE Wayne Simmonds. He's been one of my favourite guys in the league for a long time... I'm simply not convinced that he's top 6 forward every night, over the long haul, anymore. I'm also somewhat concerned about how he'll play for the remainder of the year coming off of a wrist injury. Those can be complicated in the short term.

 

[Marmoset]

He was never going to be worth 11M per year for most of his contract. That was the price of landing a premium UFA.

However, I still feel like he has not been up to par. When I watch JT this year I see two things that concern me. One is the bad passes and giveaways which at times are very careless. It's not like they are constant, but I see it much more from JT than most forwards on the team. To me it doesn't look lazy, it looks more like a lack of awareness of what is happening on the ice. Second is that 5-on-5 it's not just that he hasn't been getting points, I feel like he's not even generating opportunities often. There are significant stretches where I hardly notice that he is out there. For the other 'big 4' guys I always notice them offensively even if they don't end up putting points on the board. To be fair, this might have been true with JT even in the past two seasons when things were going better for him.

Like I said, I don't expect him to play like a true 11M player because very few guys in the NHL do. He needs to be better though if this team is going to go on a deep playoff run. Fortunately there is still lots of time.

 

[saltming]

I LOVE Wayne Simmonds. He's been one of my favourite guys in the league for a long time... I'm simply not convinced that he's top 6 forward every night, over the long haul, anymore. I'm also somewhat concerned about how he'll play for the remainder of the year coming off of a wrist injury. Those can be complicated in the short term.

I agree and it's yet to be seen.
2 things though, 1 short season and when he gets back it will be even shorter. 2 he has a chip on his shoulder and needs to prove something to get back in the league

 

[Super Mega]

He is our Stamkos. Useful on PP and PPG playing 17-18 mins a night while Point and Kucherov are the real star forwards.

I do worry about the last couple years of that contract though

 

[Throw More Waffles]

He was never going to be worth 11M per year for most of his contract. That was the price of landing a premium UFA.

However, I still feel like he has not been up to par. When I watch JT this year I see two things that concern me. One is the bad passes and giveaways which at times are very careless. It's not like they are constant, but I see it much more from JT than most forwards on the team. To me it doesn't look lazy, it looks more like a lack of awareness of what is happening on the ice. Second is that 5-on-5 it's not just that he hasn't been getting points, I feel like he's not even generating opportunities often. There are significant stretches where I hardly notice that he is out there. For the other 'big 4' guys I always notice them offensively even if they don't end up putting points on the board. To be fair, this might have been true with JT even in the past two seasons when things were going better for him.

Like I said, I don't expect him to play like a true 11M player because very few guys in the NHL do. He needs to be better though if this team is going to go on a deep playoff run. Fortunately there is still lots of time.

I fully agree it's not lazyness. Tavares is working his ass off every shift. It looks to me that he's lost half a step, and now his body can no longer keep up with his vision. That half a step he lost is the difference between a crisp pass and a costly givaway.

 

[Stephen]

I disagree with the OP's notion that Tavares is playing the best hockey of his career. I think he's played a generally mediocre game all season which has been masked by the Toronto Maple Leafs team success, Dubas' very successful averaging down of his contract and generally by his ability to generate good offensive statistics, but generally I think he doesn't bring anything approaching his contract and .

Before he became a Leaf, Tavares was never really one of my personal favorites around the league but the story of a hometown superstar returning has been a compelling storyline to follow. I've been very hard on him because we're seeing our two other $11 million players take the next step towards their prime, and Tavares is exiting his. At his price tag, you need him to work out or he could stunt the Leafs climb to championship status so there's added anxiety there.

From a production point of view, it seems like he's still capable of about 1.00 PPG numbers or less even if his shift to shift may not actually show a guy who is controlling the play to that extent. From a shift to shift point I think he's been better since the Edmonton series as he's moving better in open ice and being set up for more scoring looks than previously, but I think there's a lot of work he needs to put in. It's also not encouraging that Thornton and Spezza can take over a shift and look more dominant in short bursts that Tavares.

Which brings me to my big point which is trying to negotiate what a realistic criteria for Tavares would be considered to be a success that we can all be happy with. A lot of people have echoed the idea that he's not an $11 million player in this thread, so that a given that he won't give us Matthews or Marner hockey. I've thrown around the Patrice Bergeron name. This type of player would generally fir the narrative that Tavares is transforming into an Yzerman type player later in his career. I'm not sure I buy that theory at the moment but I think this is a good benchmark for what a gently declining Tavares could look like.

 

[mrbagina]

I fully agree it's not lazyness. Tavares is working his ass off every shift. It looks to me that he's lost half a step, and now his body can no longer keep up with his vision. That half a step he lost is the difference between a crisp pass and a costly givaway.

It pains me to admit but I agree with this. I was excited to get Tavares and he showed me why the first year especially, but the play in and now this season, he looks like he is a step behind mentally as well as physically.
He getting some points as he should with the amount of ice time (pp) and linemates he gets but his overall game is lacking imo, especially for an 11 mill player. I hope its just a glitch and he can find his game again but man I find him hard to watch this season. Cant fault his work ethic but his decision making/giveaways are brutal. I preferred Nylander with Barbanov and Kerfoot to be honest, and that's not a good thing. I want nothing more than for him to succeed but that contract and 4 yrs left has me pulling on my collar and wiping my brow a little.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

All he is missing right now is his ES shooting. He has a 3.9% at ES this year.

He has literally never been below 10% in his career in any other year going back to his rookie season. Since Covid hit, he has been super cold.

I don't think he has suddenly forgot how to score, and he is still generating amazing opportunities. Imagine how dangerous the Leafs are when he gets back his scoring touch, because it will almost certainly happen.

If was shooting his career average this year (~12% at ES), he'd have 6 goals at ES right now instead of 2. He would be a PPG player with 11 goals in 25 games and I don't think anyone complains about him.

 

[Buds17]

This season has also seen his lowest ATOI since becoming a Leaf (albeit by about a minute). He's still third in points and I agree that he has been solid defensively.

 

[Critical13]

He's taken some heat this year (sometimes very deservedly) but his stats are pretty damn solid. Not 11 million solid I dont think but check it out:

6th in the NHL for for faceoff winning% at 59.1%


While not producing well 5v5 (but still producing chances), his goal differential is still amazing (61.63) due to his insanely low goals against/60.

Looking at the 80 forwards who have played at least 250 minutes this year:

Lowest Goals Against/60:
1.Tavares: 1.15
2.Kopitar: 1.27

Thats a bigger lead than it looks like as the sample size grows larger.

Throw in Nylander, and the stats get even crazier:

GF%:
Nylander/Tavares: 67.20
Goals Against/60:
Nylander/Tavares: 0.96

....and he is doing this in the most offensive oriented division in hockey.

On the PP, 10th in Goals/60 and 10th in Points/60 out of the 114 forwards who have played at least 50 PP minutes this year. Would like to see this a little more solidly into the top 10 but still good.

He just needs a few more goals to go in for him 5v5 and I dont think many would have much of an issue with him. He had a few games there where he was giving away the puck too much but didnt really cost the team and the issue seems to have mostly gone away.

Best reply in the thread, thanks Zyb. Well thought out and concise on each point.

If JT even doubles his sh% (which at that point would be HALF of his career sh%), he will have put up one hell of a 2way season.

 

[hotpaws]

All he is missing right now is his ES shooting. He has a 3.9% at ES this year.

He has literally never been below 10% in his career in any other year going back to his rookie season. Since Covid hit, he has been super cold.

I don't think he has suddenly forgot how to score, and he is still generating amazing opportunities. Imagine how dangerous the Leafs are when he gets back his scoring touch, because it will almost certainly happen.

If was shooting his career average this year (~12% at ES), he'd have 6 goals at ES right now instead of 2. He would be a PPG player with 11 goals in 25 games and I don't think anyone complains about him.

no one would have a problem with him if ''he was generating amazing opportunities'' and they were just not going in , the problem is the players he's playing with are creating the opportunities and he isn't converting

 

[Muston Atthews]

he looks slower than big Joe most nights -- he most certainly has not taken the next step

 

[Canadian Game]

I don't disagree with the OP. Let me say this:

If the Leafs can win a cup then all contracts are forgiven. If JT helps TOR with defensive play and they win then why knock him for not producing points?

I used to think Sundin could have produced more points, but always put his energies into defensive play. He still had a hall of fame career.

I think some would share this thinking of forgiving contact but many will not afterward, especially around 2 years after. The Blackhawks are a classic example as they rewarded their core players with big contracts for the Stanley Cups and becoming a salary cap dynasty. Many of their fans have since complained about most of the players not performing up to their contracts, despite all of the success.

 

[OB34KNH]

You're essentially taking (+/-) of Tavares.

+/- is a useless stat.

There are 6 players on the ice at a time. A goal being scored while a player on the ice, isn't necessarily reflective upon that player's skill/effort.

There are 5 other players on the ice who may have been responsible for a goal-against/goal-for.

 

[OB34KNH]

He is our Stamkos. Useful on PP and PPG playing 17-18 mins a night while Point and Kucherov are the real star forwards.

I do worry about the last couple years of that contract though

Stamoks > Tavares. But it's close.

 

[Menzinger]

He's taken some heat this year (sometimes very deservedly) but his stats are pretty damn solid. Not 11 million solid I dont think but check it out:

6th in the NHL for for faceoff winning% at 59.1%


While not producing well 5v5 (but still producing chances), his goal differential is still amazing (61.63) due to his insanely low goals against/60.

Looking at the 80 forwards who have played at least 250 minutes this year:

Lowest Goals Against/60:
1.Tavares: 1.15
2.Kopitar: 1.27

Thats a bigger lead than it looks like as the sample size grows larger.

Throw in Nylander, and the stats get even crazier:

GF%:
Nylander/Tavares: 67.20
Goals Against/60:
Nylander/Tavares: 0.96

....and he is doing this in the most offensive oriented division in hockey.

On the PP, 10th in Goals/60 and 10th in Points/60 out of the 114 forwards who have played at least 50 PP minutes this year. Would like to see this a little more solidly into the top 10 but still good.

He just needs a few more goals to go in for him 5v5 and I dont think many would have much of an issue with him. He had a few games there where he was giving away the puck too much but didnt really cost the team and the issue seems to have mostly gone away.

I've been very pleased with his defensive stats this season.

Imo a few extra lucky bounces (especially at 5v5) and his offensive output would be more or less on par with his norm and folks would be putting way less heat on him

 

[The Blueprint]

he looks slower than big Joe most nights -- he most certainly has not taken the next step

Tbh this is what I see aswell. His foot speed has definitely declined, not that he was ever the fastest guy.

Him and Nylander have looked better together the last few games but before that despite the points that 2nd line has looked like they are on different pages which has lead to a lot of turnovers.

I like what Tavares brings but I don't think he'll live up to the 11m contract, not in the way that Matthews and Mitch are.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

no one would have a problem with him if ''he was generating amazing opportunities'' and they were just not going in , the problem is the players he's playing with are creating the opportunities and he isn't converting

I just think he is not impactful at either end of the ice. He is just too slow to be like AM in the D-zone. His constant trying to deke out everyone and failing is almost comical...it's like he just came up from Junior into the NHL and doesn't know that those tricks don't work yet. He was trying to deke out 2 players with one hand on his stick in our own zone(the slot) the other day...and lost it.

But the worst thing for me is the no look passes to ...nobody. He is doing hail marys in the d-zone..o-zone...everywhere. That looks to me like pure desperation when you resort to that.

 

[Zybalto]

Pulling Nylander away from Tavares seems weird seeing as both players have significantly better results together.

For example, in around 250 5v5 minutes together this year, they have been on the ice for 8 goals for and 4 against.

In around 80 minutes away from Tavares 5v5 this year, Nylander has been on the ice for 3 goals for and 4 against.

Tavares is only 50% away from Nylander as well.

If they had that goal differential together the rest of the year, I'd be more than happy with it.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

If you didn’t know who he was and just watched him play, you would see a hard working, defensively responsible, second line player who lacked speed and the ability to create much offensively but could be an asset on the pp.
,

Those players make 1-2 millions bucks a year. Just sayin'.