John Tavares has taken that next step.

[moon111]

I see a lot of players being criticized when they don't score. Just because you score however, doesn't mean you win. Being able to score might give you a big fat $300,000 contract like Marcel Dionne got in L.A., it might win you a few regular season games, but you're never going to go anywhere in the playoffs. How many Cup rings does Dionne have? This isn't to say a strictly scorer isn't going to win a Cup, but it just mean a more solid core has to be surrounding them and the coach has to be careful when and where to insert them.

If you want, you can look at Tavares' past history, but to sum it up, he has great individual success but the opposition beats him, he loses.

• In 2009-2010, the opposition scored more goals when Tavares was on the ice than he did.
• In 2010-2011, the opposition scored more goals when Tavares was on the ice than he did.
• In 2011-2012, the opposition scored more goals when Tavares was on the ice then he did.
• In 2012-2013, the opposition scored more goals when Tavares was on the ice then he did both in the regular season and playoffs.
• In 2013-2014, the opposition scored more goals when Tavares was on the ice then he did.
• In 2014-2015, He manages to be on for 5 more in the regular season, 2 more in the playoffs.
• In 2015-2016, He manages to be on for 6 more in the regular season, but -3 in the playoffs.
• In 2016-2017, He manages to be on for 4 more.
• In 2017-2018, The opposition scored more goals when Tavares was on the ice then he did.
• In 2018-2019, He manages to be on for 19 more! ...but -5 in 7 games in the playoffs.
• In 2019-2020, The opposition scored more goals when Tavares was on the ice then he did both in the regular season and the playoffs.

You can blame, goaltending, defense, etc. But at a certain point, you have to be able to look someone like Patrice Bergeron, Pierre-Luc Dubois, McDavid, etc... and either beat them or at least neutralize them.

I created an entire threat criticizing Tavares for his defensive play. Even at his best scoring with Marner you could see this type of pond hockey would never hold up in the playoffs. And it didn't. Look at his record last year, against Columbus.

• August 2nd.- No points and minus 2
• August 4th - 1 goal and plus 1.
• August 6th - No points and a minus 1
• August 7th - 1 goal, 1 assist and a 0.
• August 9th - No points and a minus 1.

Where a lot of fans are now criticizing him, I personally think he's playing his best hockey ever. So far in 2020-2021, He's managed to be on for 7 more goals. He's been a minus player only five times this season.
Tavares and Nylander have looked a little loss at times this season, but the difference is they're not throwing caution to the wind at times. This isn't about John Tavares's numbers, it's about Toronto's. The Leafs are currently 9th in Goals-Against with anywhere from two to five more games played than teams with a better number. Maybe part of this is the players Dubas brought in. Maybe part of this is the coaching of Keefe, but can say for damn sure, Tavares has bought in and taken that next step.

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[saltming]

Good thread. Many players had to make that adjustment to make the jump to the cup. Yzerman leaps to mind

I see a lot of players being criticized when they don't score. Just because you score however, doesn't mean you win. Being able to score might give you a big fat $300,000 contract like Marcel Dionne got in L.A., it might win you a few regular season games, but you're never going to go anywhere in the playoffs. How many Cup rings does Dionne have? This isn't to say a strictly scorer isn't going to win a Cup, but it just mean a more solid core has to be surrounding them and the coach has to be careful when and where to insert them.

If you want, you can look at Tavares' past history, but to sum it up, he has great individual success but the opposition beats him, he loses.

• In 2009-2010, the opposition scored more goals when Tavares was on the ice than he did.
• In 2010-2011, the opposition scored more goals when Tavares was on the ice than he did.
• In 2011-2012, the opposition scored more goals when Tavares was on the ice then he did.
• In 2012-2013, the opposition scored more goals when Tavares was on the ice then he did both in the regular season and playoffs.
• In 2013-2014, the opposition scored more goals when Tavares was on the ice then he did.
• In 2014-2015, He manages to be on for 5 more in the regular season, 2 more in the playoffs.
• In 2015-2016, He manages to be on for 6 more in the regular season, but -3 in the playoffs.
• In 2016-2017, He manages to be on for 4 more.
• In 2017-2018, The opposition scored more goals when Tavares was on the ice then he did.
• In 2018-2019, He manages to be on for 19 more! ...but -5 in 7 games in the playoffs.
• In 2019-2020, The opposition scored more goals when Tavares was on the ice then he did both in the regular season and the playoffs.

You can blame, goaltending, defense, etc. But at a certain point, you have to be able to look someone like Patrice Bergeron, Pierre-Luc Dubois, McDavid, etc... and either beat them or at least neutralize them.

I created an entire threat criticizing Tavares for his defensive play. Even at his best scoring with Marner you could see this type of pond hockey would never hold up in the playoffs. And it didn't. Look at his record last year, against Columbus.

• August 2nd.- No points and minus 2
• August 4th - 1 goal and plus 1.
• August 6th - No points and a minus 1
• August 7th - 1 goal, 1 assist and a 0.
• August 9th - No points and a minus 1.

Where a lot of fans are now criticizing him, I personally think he's playing his best hockey ever. So far in 2020-2021, He's managed to be on for 7 more goals. He's been a minus player only five times this season.
Tavares and Nylander have looked a little loss at times this season, but the difference is they're not throwing caution to the wind at times. This isn't about John Tavares's numbers, it's about Toronto's. The Leafs are currently 9th in Goals-Against with anywhere from two to five more games played than teams with a better number. Maybe part of this is the players Dubas brought in. Maybe part of this is the coaching of Keefe, but can say for damn sure, Tavares has bought in and taken that next step.

 

[DitchMarner]

He's elevated his defensive game, but you don't pay someone $11 mil per season to be Bobby Holik. He does need to provide more offensively.


Also, the Islanders were hot trash in his early years. Of course he was on the ice for more goals against than for.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Tavares is having a great defensive season, but on-ice goal differentials are so heavily impacted by other factors... also, I'm not really sure where you're finding your numbers...

Tavares has had a positive 5v5 GF% in 7 of the last 9 seasons, despite being on some pretty bad defensive/goaltending teams. In one of the seasons he didn't, he received goaltending behind him that would have placed dead last in the league last year. In the other year, he was on the 2nd worst defensive team in the league, getting goaltending that would again rank near the bottom.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Nice take .. certainly at his salary, it's not surprising to expect elite numbers but we also know JT is on the downswing of his prime and a decline in production is normal.

That being said the rest of his game is important and that's where his value is so far this year. And on the PP.

 

[hotpaws]

if we need to invent excuses for his poor play we should just stick with the new father thing since people are familiar with that

JT makes 11m per , he needs to tilt the ice at that salary , unfortunately he's never been that type of player

 

[ottomaddox]

I don't disagree with the OP. Let me say this:

If the Leafs can win a cup then all contracts are forgiven. If JT helps TOR with defensive play and they win then why knock him for not producing points?

I used to think Sundin could have produced more points, but always put his energies into defensive play. He still had a hall of fame career.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Also, since this thread is probably going to turn into uninformed people bashing Tavares, it should be noted that his career ES SH% is 12.7%, and he's currently shooting at 3.9% this season.

 

[Zybalto]

He's taken some heat this year (sometimes very deservedly) but his stats are pretty damn solid. Not 11 million solid I dont think but check it out:

6th in the NHL for for faceoff winning% at 59.1%


While not producing well 5v5 (but still producing chances), his goal differential is still amazing (61.63) due to his insanely low goals against/60.

Looking at the 80 forwards who have played at least 250 minutes this year:

Lowest Goals Against/60:
1.Tavares: 1.15
2.Kopitar: 1.27

Thats a bigger lead than it looks like as the sample size grows larger.

Throw in Nylander, and the stats get even crazier:

GF%:
Nylander/Tavares: 67.20
Goals Against/60:
Nylander/Tavares: 0.96

....and he is doing this in the most offensive oriented division in hockey.

On the PP, 10th in Goals/60 and 10th in Points/60 out of the 114 forwards who have played at least 50 PP minutes this year. Would like to see this a little more solidly into the top 10 but still good.

He just needs a few more goals to go in for him 5v5 and I dont think many would have much of an issue with him. He had a few games there where he was giving away the puck too much but didnt really cost the team and the issue seems to have mostly gone away.

 

[Wiseguys]

Taveras next step is getting slower. At best he has average speed and getting slower. His offensive stats or what we expect to see from him doesn't really justify the contract. He realizes that his speed isnt one of his stronger points and tries to make up for it by being more defensive minded and aggressive along the boards. Four more years of cap hit on this contract. The game is getting quicker, players coming in our getting faster. Eventually they might have to find a way of putting him on LTIR to free up cap space.

 

[Zybalto]

Also, since this thread is probably going to turn into uninformed people bashing Tavares, it should be noted that his career ES SH% is 12.7%, and he's currently shooting at 3.9% this season.

Yea, You could probably create a pretty good highlight package of goalies robbing Tavares so far this year. I would be more worried if his drop in scoring was more due to him not getting chances.

 

[Welsh Maple Leaf]

if we need to invent excuses for his poor play we should just stick with the new father thing since people are familiar with that

JT makes 11m per , he needs to tilt the ice at that salary , unfortunately he's never been that type of player

Or you could read the reasonable OP

 

[Morbo]

I expect his SH% to regress to the norm and he'll get more points. you're doing alright when 21 points in 25 games is struggling though.

 

[saltming]

Taveras next step is getting slower. At best he has average speed and getting slower. His offensive stats or what we expect to see from him doesn't really justify the contract. He realizes that his speed isnt one of his stronger points and tries to make up for it by being more defensive minded and aggressive along the boards. Four more years of cap hit on this contract. The game is getting quicker, players coming in our getting faster. Eventually they might have to find a way of putting him on LTIR to free up cap space.

I remember this argument being used against Thornton. When Johnny loses a step can he remake his game to still compete? Is that what we are seeing? Is it the baby syndrome? (personally this is a huge impact Imo)
Time will tell

 

[67leafs]

I honestly think the only reason the leafs went after JT was that they didn’t want anybody else to have him. The overpaid for the media attention and buzz around the signing etc etc.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

He's elevated his defensive game, but you don't pay someone $11 mil per season to be Bobby Holik. He does need to provide more offensively.


Also, the Islanders were hot trash in his early years. Of course he was on the ice for more goals against than for.

Yep. And now that the leafs don’t ever lose, he of course is on the ice for more goals.

Im *very* concerned about Tavares going forward. He’s still dangerous as a net front presence. But everything else about his game is a disaster. He looks like he’s literally scared of the puck. The second he gets it, he just blind passes it in any random direction.

 

[Suntouchable13]

We better win before his contract becomes an albatross. Already wasted 2 years of that contract and couldn't advance anywhere. He needs to be a difference maker consistently. I just don't think he has been. His cap hit will become a hindrance to improving this team if they don't win in the next 2 years or so.

 

[frizzer1]

If you didn’t know who he was and just watched him play, you would see a hard working, defensively responsible, second line player who lacked speed and the ability to create much offensively but could be an asset on the pp.
,

 

[frizzer1]

We better win before his contract becomes an albatross. Already wasted 2 years of that contract and couldn't advance anywhere. He needs to be a difference maker consistently. I just don't think he has been. His cap hit will become a hindrance to improving this team if they don't win in the next 2 years or so.

I think it already is a problem.
Dubas has done well with the cap restrictions but imagine what this team could do with 11 mil.

 

[frizzer1]

And the part that I find interesting is that the team that lost him did not regress at all and nay have even gotten better.
And the team that got him did not improve at all and may even have gotten worse the first 2,years.
This year they have better defence and coaching so their record is better but certainly not because of his 2 even strength goals in 25 games.

 

[Zybalto]

And the part that I find interesting is that the team that lost him did not regress at all and nay have even gotten better.
And the team that got him did not improve at all and may even have gotten worse the first 2,years.
This year they have better defence and coaching so their record is better but certainly not because of his 2 even strength goals in 25 games.

Islanders vs. Leafs since Keefe became coach:

Toronto:
Record: 45-20-7 (.676) (5th in the NHL)
Team Defense(xGA/60): (8th in the NHL)

Islanders:
Record: 33-26-13 (.549) (18h in the NHL)
Team Defense(xGA/60): (10th in the NHL)

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

if we need to invent excuses for his poor play we should just stick with the new father thing since people are familiar with that

JT makes 11m per , he needs to tilt the ice at that salary , unfortunately he's never been that type of player

He is horrible in his own end. How many no-look passes has he gifted to the other team this year? Add to that he is not very positionally sound because of his lack of foot speed and you get his bad defensive numbers over his career. Like Hotpaws said...when you're making $11M a year...you should be playing in the other teams end most of the time like AM and Mitch are. I was so excited to see him sign here and now so very disappointed to have him. I don't know if he is concussed or what...but man...he makes some head scratching passes a lot more than the previous before.

I want people who rarely watch hockey to watch him play and then guess his salary...betcha nobody guesses more than 4M.

 

[Zybalto]

Top 5 in the NHL for All situations Goals/60 out of the 56 forwards who have played at least 3000 minutes since Tavares was signed by the Leafs:

1. Matthews
2. Ovi
3. Draisaitl
4. Tavares
5. McDavid

 

[Leaftors]

Imagine a guy has his ga/60, is scoring at nearly a point per game WHILE In a scoring slump. Then criticizing him. If we gave him 11, then there was a team that would have gave him the same.

 

[Leaftors]

He is horrible in his own end. How many no-look passes has he gifted to the other team this year? Add to that he is not very positionally sound because of his lack of foot speed and you get his bad defensive numbers over his career. Like Hotpaws said...when you're making $11M a year...you should be playing in the other teams end most of the time like AM and Mitch are. I was so excited to see him sign here and now so very disappointed to have him. I don't know if he is concussed or what...but man...he makes some head scratching passes a lot more than the previous before.

I want people who rarely watch hockey to watch him play and then guess his salary...betcha nobody guesses more than 4M.

hockey is a game of mistakes, there isn’t a single player this year who hasn’t made a bad decision. Your entire post is completely opposite of what his stats actually dictate. If you focus on only bad things, then ya he does only bad things.

Just because you’ve watched or played hockey your whole life doesn’t mean you have any clue as to what’s going on, or how the systems dictate his positioning should be.