Value of: John Marino to Canada before his NTC kicks in, 24-25 offseason

[dgibb10]

John Marino is fantastic. No Devil fan wants to trade him. Hes a top 4 defensmen and the best defensive minded Dman on the team.

Zero interest in moving him anywhere, his contract is a steal and we will happily keep him

I am not saying NJD should try and trade him this year.

But, there are a number of Canadian teams in need of a cost controlled RD. Those teams have until July 1st to buy marino. If they want to put together an offer that blows me away, I would move Marino

If the insinuation you're making is true (his 8 team no trade list is basically Canada+Buffalo or something), then I really want no part of acquiring him if I'm a Canadian team. You don't want a player who doesn't wanna be there who is signed for multiple years, particularly a mid-bottom of your lineup kind of player.

21 minute a night quality number 3 shutdown RD*

 

[Gurglesons]

Your dislike for Marino is well worn, but NJ didn't miss the playoffs with their stars in their prime. Hamilton was out virtually all season after surgery, Hughes was sent for surgery, Meier was sent for surgery, and Bratt was too injured to play in the World Championships. Hischier missed time as well. As the saying goes, the most important ability is availability. You don't have a star in their prime if they are on the injured list. Beyond that, you and I both know that no one player is why a team misses the playoffs aside from maybe a goalie. Look, I get it, you don't like Marino for whatever reason which is fine, but this was a reach.

You going to quote the other guy and explain why John Marino isn't responsible for the Penguins missing the playoffs too?

 

[My3Sons]

You going to quote the other guy and explain why John Marino isn't responsible for the Penguins missing the playoffs too?

sure why not.

 

[Rhodes 81]

This premise makes no sense. If Marino plays up to his potential then the Devils have their shutdown matchup RHD locked up for another 2 years at $4.4 aav. If he doesn't, not many teams will be lining up to trade for him anyway.

Either way, Trading Marino to make room for Casey is neither a like for like replacement, nor is it something the Devils should be doing a year from now. Casey is a great prospect, but a Devils fan should know better than to think any prospect is going to step right into the lineup seamlessly along a convenient timeline. It's a young team, but not quite so young that they have all the time in the world to wait around for more prospects. By the start of this season Meier will be 28, Bratt will be 26, Hischier will be 25, and Hamilton will be 31. Resetting the clock on a potential contention window by moving a good veteran defenseman on a good contract to make room for a rookie would be self-sabotage.

 

[57special]

Marino averaged close to 21 min/night last year, and has done the same all career. That is not a 3rd pairing Dman, folks. I don't see why NJD would be looking to move him....isn't he exactly the type that they want to keep around? His salary is fine for what he brings to the table, and will look even better as the post covid cap continues to rise.

Sabres should be all over Marino if they have a shot at him, but what they would realistically offer(smallish, skilled forward prospects)is not a big need for NJD. Maybe Greenway +, but I think that Buff want to keep that size and physicality up front for the same reasons that NJD would want to acquire him.

 

[Oneiro]

Casey platooning with Marino for the final two years of Marino's deal is not that big of a deal. I don't even think they really wanted to have Nemec play as much as he did this year, injuries and his quality of play forced them to.

They're not going to rush an undersized offensive D, no matter how smart he is. You'd have to see him murder the AHL for that to happen. Marino plays out his deal, the final year Casey is the 7 / they platoon, and then they move on and it's Casey full time. By that time, you're a regular playoff team and they'll like having a deep roster on D. This is a team that will really only need to add a Dillon or Tanev-like player at the deadline every few years or so.

 

[dgibb10]

This premise makes no sense. If Marino plays up to his potential then the Devils have their shutdown matchup RHD locked up for another 2 years at $4.4 aav. If he doesn't, not many teams will be lining up to trade for him anyway.

Either way, Trading Marino to make room for Casey is neither a like for like replacement, nor is it something the Devils should be doing a year from now. Casey is a great prospect, but a Devils fan should know better than to think any prospect is going to step right into the lineup seamlessly along a convenient timeline. It's a young team, but not quite so young that they have all the time in the world to wait around for more prospects. By the start of this season Meier will be 28, Bratt will be 26, Hischier will be 25, and Hamilton will be 31. Resetting the clock on a potential contention window by moving a good veteran defenseman on a good contract to make room for a rookie would be self-sabotage.

The premise is NJD will need cap space. One of Marino, Hamilton, Palat will need to go within the next 2 years

And it depends on what is available.

How do you value the gap?

Is it Marino=Palat+2 1sts
Marino=Hamilton?
Marino=Hamilton+?

I'd be looking at what the market is for all 3, and making a determination based off that. Here I am trying to gauge if a team from canada would be open to giving "a deal we can't refuse" so to speak, before his NTC kicks in.

Also if I moved marino, I'd be going after a short term stopgap, such as local boy TVR for example.

I should have made more clear in the post, but I am vehemently against casey being placed into regular NHL minutes next year.

 

[AfroThunder396]

They didn't trade Marino to make room for Nemec, they won't do it for Casey.

Let's wait until he actually makes the NHL and sticks before we go shopping the precious little defensive depth we actually have.

If you want to dump a defenseman for cap space, the obvious candidate is Siegenthaler. But I think they'll give him another year to bounce back in a new system with a new coach.

 

[Rhodes 81]

The premise is NJD will need cap space. One of Marino, Hamilton, Palat will need to go within the next 2 years

And it depends on what is available.

How do you value the gap?

Is it Marino=Palat+2 1sts
Marino=Hamilton?
Marino=Hamilton+?

I'd be looking at what the market is for all 3, and making a determination based off that. Here I am trying to gauge if a team from canada would be open to giving "a deal we can't refuse" so to speak, before his NTC kicks in.

Also if I moved marino, I'd be going after a short term stopgap, such as local boy TVR for example.

I should have made more clear in the post, but I am vehemently against casey being placed into regular NHL minutes next year.

What do they need cap space for, though? I suggest you research how much the cap is likely to increase by over the next few years now that the Covid flat cap is done. By next offseason, the going rate for anyone you would be happy replacing Marino with is going to be higher than his 4.4 million and at a longer term.

If the Devils find themselves needing to buy cap space in the next 2 years, Palat would be the easiest player to replace and is the only one of those players where a replacement for his roster spot is likely to be cheaper than his current contract. But I really only see that happening if they sign multiple 3+ year players at AAVs over $6 million this year. Maybe if they traded for Saros and extended him plus signed another top 6 forward that happens, but that's really the only scenario where they aren't going to have enough cap space to re-sign who they need to.

 

[ginner classic]

Hughes - Marino
Siegenthaler - Hamilton
Kulikov - Nemec

Elite! Why would NJ trade Marino?

 

[dgibb10]

What do they need cap space for, though? I suggest you research how much the cap is likely to increase by over the next few years now that the Covid flat cap is done. By next offseason, the going rate for anyone you would be happy replacing Marino with is going to be higher than his 4.4 million and at a longer term.

If the Devils find themselves needing to buy cap space in the next 2 years, Palat would be the easiest player to replace and is the only one of those players where a replacement for his roster spot is likely to be cheaper than his current contract. But I really only see that happening if they sign multiple 3+ year players at AAVs over $6 million this year. Maybe if they traded for Saros and extended him plus signed another top 6 forward that happens, but that's really the only scenario where they aren't going to have enough cap space to re-sign who they need to.

Luke and Nemec's contracts are going to be like 17 mill between the 2 of them

 

[Rhodes 81]

Luke and Nemec's contracts are going to be like 17 mill between the 2 of them

Projecting both of them to sign AAVs around 8.5 million is probably generous. Either or both of them may prefer bridges deals to long term contracts that would touch those figures. It's more likely that the total combined AAVs for them come in around 12 million or so. And that is over the course of the next two offseasons.

The cap is likely to jump enough to absorb the increase to Hughes' cap hit next year (projected to reach or exceed $92 million) and it is a fairly safe assumption that a similar jump in % will come the year after when Nemec needs a new deal. Even in the world where one of them has earned a contract that would make signing them a problem, you're jumping the gun by an offseason and I simply don't think Marino would be the logical choice to produce savings. At that point replacing him is going to be more expensive than he is. I just think the more logical question is what kind of asset will we need to staple to Palat to get another team to take him in 2 years.

 

[dgibb10]

Projecting both of them to sign AAVs around 8.5 million is probably generous. Either or both of them may prefer bridges deals to long term contracts that would touch those figures. It's more likely that the total combined AAVs for them come in around 12 million or so. And that is over the course of the next two offseasons.

The cap is likely to jump enough to absorb the increase to Hughes' cap hit next year (projected to reach or exceed $92 million) and it is a fairly safe assumption that a similar jump in % will come the year after when Nemec needs a new deal. Even in the world where one of them has earned a contract that would make signing them a problem, you're jumping the gun by an offseason and I simply don't think Marino would be the logical choice to produce savings. At that point replacing him is going to be more expensive than he is. I just think the more logical question is what kind of asset will we need to staple to Palat to get another team to take him in 2 years.

Sanderson & Power contracts means no chance. Luke will get an 8x8 and that's an optimistic discount. Nemec is going to require 9x8 by the time his deal is ready

Bridging them would just be stupid. You don't bridge players like that

Staying proactive to maximize value is important. If you walk into the Nemec offseason NEEDING to clear Palat/Hamilton/Marino, it will cost you dearly in terms of value

 

[KevinRedkey]

Marino+10th+Something (not sure what fills ottawa's needs) for 7th+26th?

The gap in pick value is equivalent to 17th overall per puckpedia. I think Marino is somewhat close to that, but may need to add something sweetener.
I would be targeting dickinson with that pick

My counter would be:

OTT 1st (7th overall)
OTT 2nd (39th overall)

for

Marino
NJD 1st (10th overall)

The value of the upgrade from 10 to 7, in addition to 39 is equal to about 23rd overall. I feel 23rd overall for Marino is pretty fair. Possibly add late picks to even it out if needed. A draft-day trade if Dickinson is there at 7 makes sense IMO.

 

[dgibb10]

My counter would be:

OTT 1st (7th overall)
OTT 2nd (39th overall)

for

Marino
NJD 1st (10th overall)

The value of the upgrade from 10 to 7, in addition to 39 is equal to about 23rd overall. I feel 23rd overall for Marino is pretty fair. Possibly add late picks to even it out if needed. A draft-day trade if Dickinson is there at 7 makes sense IMO.

I'd have to really consider that as I'm in love with SD as a prospect

 

[TBF1972]

I'd have to really consider that as I'm in love with SD as a prospect

would you still do it if sd is off the board?

if none of celebrini, demidov, lindstrom, buium or dickinson are available at #7 spot i would rather stay pat. so this would be a draft day deal with the knowledge who is available.

 

[dgibb10]

would you still do it if sd is off the board?

if none of celebrini, demidov, lindstrom, buium or dickinson are available at #7 spot i would rather stay pat. so this would be a draft day deal with the knowledge who is available.

I'm not sure. I haven't though much about Silayev because I assumed he'd be off the board way before us. I'd probably have to do a deeper dive into him

 

[joestevens29]

Hence why, if Edmonton wants him, they would be on a very hard deadline of July 1st


I'd also be willing to move Dougie.

Honestly, if a team Dougie would waive to offers a late 1st, I would accept.

Cap space is always valuable, and while dougie is an elite dman, getting a UFA for free, getting the best years out of him, then trading him for positive value is always a win in my eyes

Lol trade for a guy that already left so we can force him to be here?

Shake the rocks out of your head please

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDo]

Hughes - Marino
Siegenthaler - Hamilton
Kulikov - Nemec

Elite! Why would NJ trade Marino?

Because an otherwise excellent Pens board poster @Gurglesons sometimes gets fixated on a position, in this case “John Marino sucks” and can’t let go.

Off topic—who’s better Nemec or Luke? Does NJ have three #1 D?

 

[Gurglesons]

Because an otherwise excellent Pens board poster @Gurglesons sometimes gets fixated on a position, in this case “John Marino sucks” and can’t let go.

Off topic—who’s better Nemec or Luke? Does NJ have three #1 D?

Nemec without question.

Dude is going to be the next Rafalski / Neidermeyer.

 

[Ciao]

It makes no sense for a Canadian team to trade for an American player who doesn't want to play in Canada. They would just be buying a player who would soon want out -- and a problem for the team.

These are professional athletes, not inanimate hockey cards.

 

[KevinRedkey]

It makes no sense for a Canadian team to trade for an American player who doesn't want to play in Canada. They would just be buying a player who would soon want out -- and a problem for the team.

These are professional athletes, not inanimate hockey cards.

Did he not want to play in Canada at all? or was in just Edmonton when they sucked?

Vancouver and Toronto are top-tier cities in the world, with good hockey teams. Plenty of American players would likely prefer those cities than many American cities.

 

[dgibb10]

Because an otherwise excellent Pens board poster @Gurglesons sometimes gets fixated on a position, in this case “John Marino sucks” and can’t let go.

Off topic—who’s better Nemec or Luke? Does NJ have three #1 D?

Nemec by a hair, but they'll play on a pairing together for a decade+