Jets Upcoming Free Agents

[DRW204]

Imo Gabe got exposed halfway through the season maybe not even. The PP was clicking so good they got it downlow then threw it to Gabe in front and he shovelled it in but then all of a sudden that play was gone and they never got it back.

This is a valid criticism. His last couple of months of the year was lack luster. Even with that 60+ pts fwds with good 2-way play is still valuable.

And do agree with your earlier sentiments that he was not a difference maker at all in the PO's.

 

[surixon]

stoller is not an insider, not even close, johnston >>>>>>> stoller in terms of inside info, I don't get how he can come to the conclusion that we won't pay market value for ehlers after chevy came out and said he's going to put his best foot forward to get him signed...

Well we shall see how good or poorly his prediction ages in good time. I just posted it as it was a drastically different take.

 

[gojetsgo]

Well we shall see how good or poorly his prediction ages in good time. I just posted it as it was a drastically different take.

even if ehlers doesn't sign stoller shouldn't get any credit for this prediction

 

[Royale With Cheese]

stoller is not an insider, not even close, johnston >>>>>>> stoller in terms of inside info, I don't get how he can come to the conclusion that we won't pay market value for ehlers after chevy came out and said he's going to put his best foot forward to get him signed...

That article spent almost no time on Ehlers and didn't really say anything of value about the situation. Classic headline click bait.

 

[DRW204]

Jacob Stoller probably can't find his ass in his pants.

 

[scelaton]

Well we shall see how good or poorly his prediction ages in good time. I just posted it as it was a drastically different take.

I think this is a case of shooting the messenger. The Jets chances of keeping Ehlers are not great, that much should be obvious. No, they are not zero, far from it, but he is going to UFA for legitimate reasons that have been endlessly documented here and elsewhere.

Also, Chevy saying he will put his best foot forward does not mean he will give him the most generous offer, but rather something within what is a particularly wide range of estimated market value for Nik. That range is ~$7.5-9.5M AAV and I suspect he will top out at the midpoint, which is what Helle/Scheif make.
A healthy, properly utilized Ehlers would be an enormous asset to any team, but a $9Mx8 contract could hamstring the Jets for years if Ehlers can't stay healthy, which is the biggest risk here and something Chevy knows more about than 31 other GMs.

Super hard choice for Chevy and a huge loss to fill if Ehlers walks. This is the only scenario in memory in which I actually don't want to play armchair GM!

 

[Daximus]

I think this is a case of shooting the messenger. The Jets chances of keeping Ehlers are not great, that much should be obvious. No, they are not zero, far from it, but he is going to UFA for legitimate reasons that have been endlessly documented here and elsewhere.

Also, Chevy saying he will put his best foot forward does not mean he will give him the most generous offer, but rather something within what is a particularly wide range of estimated market value for Nik. That range is ~$7.5-9M AAV and I suspect he will offer him the midpoint, which is just under what Helle/Scheif make.
A healthy, properly utilized Ehlers would be an enormous asset to any team, but a $9Mx8 contract could hamstring the Jets for years if Ehlers can't stay healthy, which is the biggest risk here and something Chevy knows more about than 31 other GMs.

Super hard choice for Chevy and a huge loss to fill if Ehlers walks. This is the only scenario in memory in which I actually don't want to play armchair GM!

I think if you can get him for under 9 you do it. If that number starts creeping up to 10+ then I think we should probably move on. The downside is there will likely be a bidding war for him that will go north of 10.

 

[Buffdog]

I think this is a case of shooting the messenger. The Jets chances of keeping Ehlers are not great, that much should be obvious. No, they are not zero, far from it, but he is going to UFA for legitimate reasons that have been endlessly documented here and elsewhere.

Also, Chevy saying he will put his best foot forward does not mean he will give him the most generous offer, but rather something within what is a particularly wide range of estimated market value for Nik. That range is ~$7.5-9.5M AAV and I suspect he will offer him the midpoint, which is what Helle/Scheif make.
A healthy, properly utilized Ehlers would be an enormous asset to any team, but a $9Mx8 contract could hamstring the Jets for years if Ehlers can't stay healthy, which is the biggest risk here and something Chevy knows more about than 31 other GMs.

Super hard choice for Chevy and a huge loss to fill if Ehlers walks. This is the only scenario in memory in which I actually don't want to play armchair GM!

All of the "reasons" for him going to UFA are pure speculation. The only words directly from Ehlers himself is that he's happy at around 16:00 a game

 

[gojetsgo]

"this is a case of shooting the messenger" who's message is stoller sending? he is just speculating off of his own opinion he has no inside information...

 

[JetsFan815]

Man, lots of anger at Stoller in this thread for stating what is the base case most normie opinion about how the Ehlers situation goes. I'd wager 90% of the board would say the same if asked for their opinion on the topic.

 

[gojetsgo]

Man, lots of anger at Stoller in this thread for stating what is the base case most normie opinion about how the Ehlers situation goes. I'd wager 90% of the board would say the same if asked for their opinion on the topic.

anger? where is the anger? I don't care about his opinion it's the obvious one that most people are stating, just pointing out that he has zero inside knowledge of whats going on in the negotiations...

and I doubt 90% of this board would say "It’s safe to say Cheveldayoff’s pitch won’t include a dollar figure that’s market value. AFP Analytics projects Ehlers’ next deal to be a six-year contract with an $8.1-million AAV. " especially after chevy just came out and said he was going to put his best foot forward and make him a jet for life

 

[JetsFan815]

anger? where is the anger? I don't care about his opinion it's the obvious one that most people are stating, just pointing out that he has zero inside knowledge of whats going on in the negotiations...

Yes but it is only posters here that are treating that his article was somehow offereing "insider info". The article clearly states that it is his opinion that Ehlers won't be a Jet based on him being so close to UFA status and speculation about the Jets being reluctant to get him near the Helle/Scheif deals let alone blowing past them, it doesn't state or imply that he is going off of some "insider info". Exactly what most posters here have been saying. Seems to me that Stoller is being held to account for a position he didn't even take.

 

[gojetsgo]

Yes but it is only posters here that are treating that his article was somehow offereing "insider info". The article clearly states that it is his opinion that Ehlers won't be a Jet based on him being so close to UFA status and speculation about the Jets being reluctant to get him near the Helle/Scheif deals let alone blowing past them, it doesn't state or imply that he is going off of some "insider info". Exactly what most posters here have been saying. Seems to me that Stoller is being held to account for a position he didn't even take.

his article is actually awful if you read it...

"All signs point to Ehlers being good as gone."

what about the signs that his agent spent 2 hours talking to chevy last monday with more talks expected after the WHC and also chris johnstons report of both sides having desire for a deal?

"It’s safe to say Cheveldayoff’s pitch won’t include a dollar figure that’s market value"

how? how is it safe to say chevy won't offer market value especially afrer he came out and said he's going to put his best foot forward to get him signed and wants to make him a jet for life?

 

[Weezeric]

his article is actually awful if you read it...

"All signs point to Ehlers being good as gone."

what about the signs that his agent spent 2 hours talking to chevy last monday with more talks expected after the WHC and also chris johnstons report of both sides having desire for a deal?

"It’s safe to say Cheveldayoff’s pitch won’t include a dollar figure that’s market value"

how? how is it safe to say chevy won't offer market value especially afrer he came out and said he's going to put his best foot forward to get him signed and wants to make him a jet for life?

The end is the best part…

“Vilardi’s situation is quite a bit different.

The 25-year-old RFA is two years away from being a UFA and signing him long-term, should he be interested, may not even be feasible. Think about it: Connor is about to be paid handsomely, Josh Morrissey is eligible for an extension in a year from now, plus Scheifele and Hellebuyck are linked long-term — can they really afford to give Vilardi the bag, too?

A bridge seems the most plausible, for both parties.”

That makes zero sense in the context of Ehlers leaving

 

[DRW204]

Man, lots of anger at Stoller in this thread for stating what is the base case most normie opinion about how the Ehlers situation goes. I'd wager 90% of the board would say the same if asked for their opinion on the topic.

Shut up Jacob.

 

[Daximus]

Yes but it is only posters here that are treating that his article was somehow offereing "insider info". The article clearly states that it is his opinion that Ehlers won't be a Jet based on him being so close to UFA status and speculation about the Jets being reluctant to get him near the Helle/Scheif deals let alone blowing past them, it doesn't state or imply that he is going off of some "insider info". Exactly what most posters here have been saying. Seems to me that Stoller is being held to account for a position he didn't even take.

The Jets better get used to players being above the Scheif and Helle deals sooner rather than later. Otherwise we are going to lose more than just Ehlers.

 

[surixon]

I personally feel with how tight lipped the org is that all these insiders are just throwing darts right now.

 

[Daximus]

The end is the best part…

“Vilardi’s situation is quite a bit different.

The 25-year-old RFA is two years away from being a UFA and signing him long-term, should he be interested, may not even be feasible. Think about it: Connor is about to be paid handsomely, Josh Morrissey is eligible for an extension in a year from now, plus Scheifele and Hellebuyck are linked long-term — can they really afford to give Vilardi the bag, too?

A bridge seems the most plausible, for both parties.”

That makes zero sense in the context of Ehlers leaving

It comes from someone who has no idea how much the rising cap is going to effect contracts moving forwards. If the Jets aren't willing to spend on these players might as well pack the teams bags and ship them back down to Atlanta. The cost of icing a hockey team isn't getting cheaper. With that said the Jets will be paying them their fair market value perhaps with a slight savings as they usually tend to get.

 

[surixon]

The Jets better get used to players being above the Scheif and Helle deals sooner rather than later. Otherwise we are going to lose more than just Ehlers.

This org has already gone above the so called Mark Helle threshold a number of times. The first go around, JoMo and KC got more cash then Helle and Scheifele.

KC will easily get more then both next time around as well. Pionk juat got more then JoMo and Snerg probably does as well.


The question isn't if the Jets will go above it, it's if they believe Fly is worth going above it for.

We will soon find out.

 

[gojetsgo]

This org has already gone above the so called Mark Helle threshold a number of times. The first go around, JoMo and KC got more cash then Helle and Scheifele.

KC will easily get more then both next time around as well. Pionk juat got more then JoMo and Snerg probably does as well.


The question isn't if the Jets will go above it, it's if they believe Fly is worth going above it for.

We will soon find out.

laine also got more on a 2 year bridge as well

 

[KingBogo]

The jets have never proved as a franchise they are willing to be a cap team. This is the year we will actually find out. They've said they would be if the opportunity presented it's self and I couldn't imagine a bigger opportunity to prove it but now. To me its now or never, the door is closing fast unless we start trading for futures and letting Ehlers go for nothing makes me suspect. Doesn't mean we have to be at max next year, trades can be made, I'd like to get Nikki for another year at least though.

Not sure what you are talking about, the Jets have been around the cap the last several years. Saying that they don't try to abuse cap rules like LV does, but they regularly spend up to the cap.

 

[bustamente]

This Stoller dude got any idea where Nik is going, it's easy to say that Nik is as good as gone but if you what to impress tell us where his desired landing spot is.

 

[KingBogo]

I personally feel with how tight lipped the org is that all these insiders are just throwing darts right now.

Agreed. At this point in time it is nothing more than speculation from any insiders. Chevy has demonstrated many times over he will keep everything as dark as possible until something actually happens.

 

[KingBogo]

It comes from someone who has no idea how much the rising cap is going to effect contracts moving forwards. If the Jets aren't willing to spend on these players might as well pack the teams bags and ship them back down to Atlanta. The cost of icing a hockey team isn't getting cheaper. With that said the Jets will be paying them their fair market value perhaps with a slight savings as they usually tend to get.

I think GMs are likely to be more conservative than the extremely rosy cap projections put out by the NHL and NHLPA, since they have to actually live with contracts they sign if the cap doesn't rise to those lofty projections. Until there is a new CBA, players still only get 1/2 of all hockey related revenue. Since those projections the geopolitical headwinds have been blowing stronger and stronger against a growing economy to support the projections.

 

[Eyeseeing]

I personally feel with how tight lipped the org is that all these insiders are just throwing darts right now.

They are indeed throwing darts however posters suggesting Chevy will pay 8.1 based on a website that calculates market value might be surprised.
Ehlers camp will check offers and I suspect one or two teams easily give Ehlers term and 9-10 million a year.
Doesn’t matter what we think, there are always gamblers out there who wear GM clothes